bas mijling ronald van der a amfic final meeting ● beijing ● 23 october 2009 results of wp 5 :...
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Bas Mijling Ronald van der A
AMFIC Final Meeting ● Beijing ● 23 October 2009
Results of WP5: Air Quality Forecasting
1. Implementation Air Quality Model
2. NO2 Reduction During the Olympic Games
3. Air Quality Forecast Service
4. Model Improvements
Overview CHIMERE
output
CHIMERE
ECMWF
meteo
MELCHIOR scheme44 species120 reactions
INTEX-B2006 inventory
GLGC database1 x 1 km²
emissions
monthly averagesgas phase: LMDZ-INCA2aerosol: GOCART
boundaryconditions
end field of previoussimulation
initial field
landuse
chemistry
Resolution 0.25 x 0.25 degree8 horizontal layersHourly concentrations of44 gases and aerosols
by Qiang Zhangand David Streets
INTEX-B Emissions
Model validationwith BBC measurements: PM10 measurements at 13h in central Beijing
with BJEPB measurements: Daily averaged NO2 surface concentration
Jul-Aug 2008
May-Jun 2008CHIMERE values scaledwith factor 0.6
May-June 2008
• Observations filtered for high cloud fractions and low clouds.• Simulated NO2 columns interpolated to time and footprint of retrieval• Free troposphere taken from climatology• Applying averaging kernel to eliminate a priori information of the
retrieval method
GOME-2 OMI
r=0.67 r=0.70
Model vs Satellite
1. Implementation Air Quality Model
2. NO2 Reduction During the Olympic Games
3. Air Quality Forecast Service
4. Model Improvements
• Compare satellite observations with model results (based on uncorrected emissions)
• Use relation xsat = (1–rp) α0 A·xmod
• Use Pre Olympic period as reference: rp=0 : xsat = α0 A·xmod
• Definition periods:
Period 1 Pre Olympic 2 May - 30 June
Period 2 Transition 1 July – 7 August
Period 3 Olympic 8 August – 17 September
Period 4 Post Olympic 18 September – 25 October
Method
Emission reduction during and after the Olympic Games
Oct-Nov 2008 May-Jun 2009
Monthly OMI NO2 over BeijingTaken from Witte et al. (2009)
Mijling et al., GRL (2009)
1. Implementation Air Quality Model
2. NO2 Reduction During the Olympic Games
3. Air Quality Forecast Service
4. Model Improvements
www.amfic.eu/bulletin
Regions Concentration fields Days
East China (whole Chimere domain)
BeijingShanghaiShenyangPearl River DeltaQingdaoSeoul (South Korea)
Ozone peak valueOzone peak 8 hour averageOzone daily averageNO2 peak value
NO2 daily average
PM10 daily average
yesterdaytodaytomorrowday after tomorrw
Web statisticswww.amfic.eu/bulletin
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8
Sep-0
8
Nov-08
Jan-
09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-0
9
Sep-0
9
NOC: www.knmi.nl/beijing2008
Website statistics
VITO: www.vito.be/amfic
CERC: www.beijingairquality.cn
This system is installed at Beijing Capital Normal University and at the offices of the Beijing Environmental Protection Bureau as well as in Cambridge, UK.
Shanghai World Expo
Presentation at Dutch pavilion:
• Near real time satellite measurements of NO2
• Air Quality forecasts of Shanghai urban area by AMFIC-system
1. Implementation Air Quality Model
2. NO2 Reduction During the Olympic Games
3. Air Quality Forecast Service
4. Model Improvements
High nocturnal concentrations
Hong Kong: PM10 at 15h local time Hong Kong: PM10 at 03h local time
19 Aug
26 Aug 6-7 Sep
Caused by a lack of Urban Heat Island Effect: too low sensible heat flux over megacityTaking BLH=750 m and Kz=1 m2/s for Beijing decreases nocturnal PM10 with 25-30%
Nocturnal boundary layer height too low over megacities
Trace gases not well mixed due to low vertical diffusion coefficient Kz
PM10 Beijing (Aug-Sep 2007)
PM10 Hong Kong(Aug-Sep 2007)
Diurnal profile PM10
Difference satellite and model
-20 0 20
Future work
• Continuing Air Quality services
• Implementing VITO emissions
• More validation with ground data
• Updating emission estimates with satellite data: studying emission trends
• DRAGON-2 (poster), June 2008, Beijing• Evaluation NOC, Oct 2008, De Bilt• Air Quality Conference, March 2009, Istanbul• GEOS CHEM user meeting (poster), April
2009, Cambridge (USA)• EGU, April 2009, Vienna• DRAGON-2, June 2009, Barcelona• ACCENT AT-2 Follow up meeting, June 2009,
Mainz• AURA meeting, Sep 2009, Leiden
Presentation of results
Thank you!
AMFIC Final Meeting ● Beijing ● 23 October 2009