bar ents sea ec osystem re silience under global environmental change barecore (pronounce bar í...
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Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change
BarEcoRe (pronounce Bar í kår)
2010-2013
Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011
capelin
NEA cod
NSS herring
Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011
Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011
primary prodution spatial distribution & phenology
species interactions
size & age composition
Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011
Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011
Resilience ?
Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011
Resilience ?
Variability
VulnerabilityRobustness
Stability
Diversity
Complexity
ResistanceAdaptability
Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011
Resilience definition:
Holling (1973): the ability to absorb disturbance and maintain function
Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011
Resilience of & to what?
individuals
populations
communities
ecosystems
food supply,thermal environment,parasites and diseases,...
recruitment,habitat,demographic structure
loss/gain speciesaltered phenologiesaltered spatial overlap
energy input,species interactions(top-down, wasp-waist)
functions?
survivalgrowthreproduction
non-extinction
interactionsbetweenspecies
Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011
evaluate the effects of global environmental change on the future structure and resilience of the Barents Sea ecosystem
BarEcoRe
Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011
evaluate the effects of global environmental change on the future structure and resilience of the Barents Sea ecosystem
quantitative data analysis and modelling
climate and fishing-induced
species comp, spatial structure, trophic network
ability to absorb disturbance and maintain function
BarEcoRe
fish and benthos communities
Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011
Bar-EcoRe: The structure
WP1: Community
structure
WP2: Trophic
interactions
WP3: Population distribution
WP4: Resilience
& Early warning
Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011
Bar-EcoRe: WP1
WP1: Community
structure
investigate past and present spatial and temporal variability in fish and benthos communities in the Barents Sea in relation to environmental variability in space and time
past community structure& control processes
Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011
Bar-EcoRe: WP2
WP1: Community
structure
WP2: Trophic
interactions
investigate how climate variation propagates through the Barents Sea ecosystem through changes in species interactions
trophic transferspatial coupling
impact of increased T°
Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011
Bar-EcoRe: WP3
WP1: Community
structure
WP2: Trophic
interactions
WP3: Population distribution
latitude
longitude
investigate the effects of past climate / human pressure on the spatial distribution of Barents Sea plankton, benthos and fish populations.
multi-speciesspatial distributionmodels and maps
Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011
Bar-EcoRe: WP4
WP1: Community
structure
WP2: Trophic
interactions
WP3: Population distribution
WP4: Resilience
& Early warning
investigate how organismal, population and community properties influence Barents Sea ecosystem resilience and assess/forecast changes in resilience associated with climate change and fisheries
INDICATORS of
species resiliencecommunity
resilienceearly warning
signals
Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011
Bar-EcoRe: The people
WP1: Community
structure
WP2: Trophic
interactions
WP3: Population distribution
WP4: Resilience
& Early warning
Michaela Aschan, Nina Marie Bersås, Grégoire Certain, Maria Fossheim, Randi Ingvaldsen, Lis Lindal Jørgensen, Edda Johannesen, Kathrine Michalsen, Benjamin Planque, Raul Primicerio, Magnus Wiedemann and others...
Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011
Bar-EcoRe: The panels
WP1: Community
structure
WP2: Trophic
interactions
WP3: Population distribution
WP4: Resilience
& Early warningS
cie
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fic
Ad
vis
oty
Pa
nel
Sta
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old
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Pa
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Thinking Working Disseminating
Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011
Directorate of Fisheries
Bar. Sea Manag. Plan, Directorate of
Nature ResourcesICESIOC
NAMMCOJoint Russian-
Norwegian Commission
Bar-EcoRe: The panels
Sc
ien
tifi
c A
dv
iso
ty P
an
el
Sta
keh
old
ers
Pa
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Thinking Working Disseminating
Michel Greenacre Andrey Dolgov Ingvar Byrkjedal Simon Jennings Thierry Boulinier Ken Drinkwater Marten Scheffer
Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011Barents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change – January 2011
Participants at the BarEcoRe kick-off meting – Tromsø June 2010
Thank you!Thank you!