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TRANSCRIPT
Banking Outlook Conference 2018
Presenter: Domonic Purviance Senior Financial Specialist, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Th~ opiJ1i<J11s e.,:pres1ce.d llrt! thou tJ/'lhe pW$<'Nl~r 1md ""' those of the F .. d~n,/ ft.e3·c•n-e Qa11k of Allunlu ,w flu! Ftttkml Ro ·.-..rn~ or il'tt &,ard ,if (]o,,aNIU'$.
Agenda
• Housing Market Trends • Affordability Outlook • Questions
~ PRDERAL 11!1~,"'.W R&SERVE
DANK • q(ATLA.~A
Housing Market Trends
~ PRDERAL 11!1~,"'.W R&SERVE
DANK • q(ATLA.~A
US E:xilting Home Sa!M ----7.000.000
45'>;
40%
6.000.000
35%
5,000,000 30%
4,000,000 25%
3,000,000 20%
15% t ; 2,000.000 <!I J • t 10% ;!
£ 1.000.000 5% t
~ i 11 > ~ o- ()'JC,
= ,. ·5%
II)
·1,000,000
· 10%
.2.000.000 Sales YoY (Bars) •IS%
-3,000.000 Sales (Line)
·20%
-4,000,000 ·25%
-6,000.000 ~
2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US ExlaUng Home Sain Va lr1¥9nlury ecuio.:NIICIINIIINllrlANootlalrl
7SM 75M
70M 70M
&SM &5M
&OM SOM
SSM S5M
SOM SOM
j 4SM
I 30M
4SM .ft 40M !
I 35M
i 30M .:i
2SM 25M
20M 20M
ISM 1.5M
10M 10M
OSM 05M
OOM OOM
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201S 2016 2017 2018
US E:xilting Home Inventory ___ .. ___ _ 4,000,000
3,800,000
3,600,000
3.400,000
3 200,000
3000.000
2 800,000
2 800.000
2 400,000
2 200,000
2 000.000
1 800.000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200.000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200.000
0
Inventory (Bars) Months Supply (Line)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201S 201& 2017 20t8
110
100
90
80
40
30
20
1.0
00
Metro Area: ExlaOng Home Sal89 Atlanta-Sandy Spri~. GA. ---UOK
120K
100K
80K
60K
4CK
I 20K
~ i OK :r r ·20K
i w -4CK
-SOK
-SOK
-100K
·120K
-140K
-160K
25%
20%
15%
ll11lli11illillil !Ill~ illllilL :
Sales YoY (Bars) Sales (Line)
-5%
-10%
-15%
·20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Metro Area: Inventory Tarr.,a-St. Patersburg-Claarwalar, FL --
§
!
30K
25K
I 20K
f w 15K
IOI<
5K
OK 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Inventory (Bars) Months Supply (Line)
2015 2016 2017 2018
---· 9.0
9.0
70
60
I 5.0 0
f "'
4.0 Jl ij
"' 3.0
20
1 0
00
US New Home Starts --850.000
800.000
750.000
700,000
'60,000
800,000
660,000
II00.000
I <50,000
t 000,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
·~ I
----~
1111111111111111 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201.t 2015 2016 2017 2018
Metro Area: Starla by MSA - 4Q17 -- --~Ol'lWorltl.Afll,glotl.TX Houslon. The Woodla'*-Suga, Land TX
AUa~s..cty$ptw'l!ls.Ros'weiGA
Pf'loefu~sa.SCOl~AZ Ausk'l,Round Rod;, TX
Orlani»K&Sffll'nH.S-,rord H Wwmgt.Ol'I-MnglM,AJe:Xill'ldna (IC..VA.Ml).VN
C~on:l·GMeonla NC.SC SanArllonlo,Niew8ra"'*'9. TX
Oen~ ~ora LIM'WOOd CO Tatnl)ii-$1 ~.Qul'W-'lllf.f'I. l.MV~.P~lN
AIWl'~San htnard,no,Onlar'IO CA ~ OaYldSoM-·Murl'ff'KIOl'o Franll.lln. TN
F°taleilghN(; los Afl9*S,,long 8HCh·Anahitlm CA
M~I P'w-8looff'ilnglon MN-WI
,..,..,..ron~ ... ~Pillmkath.f'I. Jac.kiOtlwltf'I.
$Nme·Tatoma~ WA
Chc:agoNa~~ IL IN-WI ~.C&mden,.\~on PA,NJOEMO
Sacr11mein1!>-ROMY11t,,.kdel'l·A/UditCA .... ~ll'meMnderson IN S.W
NtwYOl1c-Ncw.ll't·Jfflcy(lly NY.NJ.PA 4,86t $.an f'rM•tts,co.0.-;1¥1C1.Hayw,,nS CA o sa
$1111 L* C,ty. VT ,.»t 8.n.nor~TOWSOl'I.MO 41t.l
San~CA 4.1~ POttl.lntJ.Vl!N.~·l-lilsbolo.0i:t·WA ).748
Cdot<ldo$pnr,,gs..CO 3.W OIJl'harn,QlapetM•. NC 2 16l
Na~·Martolt:llnd.H ~ 2M Tuuon N. - .U11
San.Jow,.S~SatllaCllraCA - 2.076 ~le~.UT - IIISl
8a~CA- 11Sl ~.Nt.t - 1.508 Pcrt&Lucie.H - 9M
SatltaFe.NM . 295 Btunswiek QA )O
11.930
""" 10,$~
"-"' "" 9)C7
u s,
'·"' "'" '"' ""
13980
U.SS&
1ua1
OK 1K 2K 3K 4K SK 6K 7K 8K 9K 10K 11K 12K 13K 14K 15K 16K 17K 18K 19K 20K 21K 22K 23K 24K 25K 26K 27K 28K 29K 30K 31K 32K 33K 34K 35K Ann Start&
Metro Area: Annual 8ta.rta by Zip Code J\lflllla-&ln(t/~I, QA --NOTE: Ot11en Zip Codes have at least 500 annual starts.
Mitro Ane: Annual Starts Allalmt-&lr,dy SJIII~~. 0A --
60.000
55,000
50.000
45.000
40,000
i 35,000
<ii C C <(
30,000
25.000
20.000
15,000
10.000
5,000
0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 201S 2017
----_ ... -ll!I--
Metro Area: Annual 8ta.rta by Zip Code J\lflllla-&ln(t/~I, QA --NOTE: Ot11en Zip Codes have at least 500 annual starts.
Mitro Ane: Annual Starts Allalmt-&lr,dy SJIII~~. 0A --
60.000
55,000
50.000
45.000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25.000
20.000
15,000
10.000
5,000
2005 2007 11111111111111111
2009 2011 2013 201S 2017
----_.,. -ll!I--
Matro Area: Annual Starts Atlanta-Sandy Sprir.,Roawell, GA a.u .. ,-....,,
60,000
55,000
50,000
45,000
40,000
"' 35,000 t:'.
"' w C: 30,000 C: <(
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
,,,.pll< .. _.. .. __ ... Q_,..._,, ....... Q!IM __ ...,~~<M. I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US Vac:ant O.V.lop•d Lobs --1.200.000
1,100,000
1.000,000
900.000
800,000
700.000
5 > 600,000
500,000
400.000
300,000
200,000
100,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20,0 20\1 20\2 20\3 2016 20\7 2018
Metro Area: Vacant Developed Lot Supply
------:-\
I Un ted Statec;
._.~
Metro Area: VDL Supply by Zip Code NNIMIIM>1Adlllm._..ulflwboro-f'n'*lln, TN December 2009 --NOTE: Blue Zip Codes have al least 1,000 VOLS
Mitro ArH: Vacant Developtld Lota N ....... ~-Mi'""-bol'o-4'nnllit, TN --19.000
18.000
17.000
16.000
15.000
14.000
13.000
12.000
11.000
i5 10,000 >
9,000
8.000
7,000
6.000
5,000
4.000
3.000
2,000
1.000
0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
-.......01 r.-t1L _.,. --111--
Metro Area: VDL Supply by Zip Code NNIMIIM>1Adlllm._..ulflwboro-f'n'*lln, TN December 2017 --NOTE: Blue Zip Codes have al least 1,000 VOLS
Mitro ArH: Vacant Developtld Lota N ....... ~-Mi'""-bol'o-4'nnllit, TN --19.000
18.000
17.000
16.000
15.000
14.000
13.000
12.000
11 .000
i5 10,000 >
9,000
8.000
7,000
6.000
5,000
4.000
3.000
2,000
1.000
0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
-.......01 r.-t1L _.,. --111--
Credit Availability
~ PRDERAL 11!1~,"'.W R&SERVE
DANK • q(ATLA.~A
US FICO at Origination D1sb1butlon --
Metro Area: FICO Di81ribution by MSA -- -Allanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX
Ba1bmore-TOW50n, MO
Boston-Cambridge..Quincy, MA-NH
Chartotte-Gasionia-Rock Hill, NC-SC
Ct'IM:~liet-Nape,ville, ll·IN-\1111
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
Detroit-Warrer'K.ivonia, Ml
Fort Lauderdale.Pompano Se.ch-Deerfield Beach, FL
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar land. TX
Jacksonville, Fl
LH Vegas-Paradise, tN
Los Angeles-Long 8Mt-h-Gfendate. CA
Mra,noa,.Fort Lauderdale-West Pam Be.ch, FL
MinMapol!,'.S-St.. Paul-Sbomington. MN-VIII
NashVllle-OavidsM-Murfreesboto-Franklin, TN New Yodc-Notthern New Jersey-long Island, NY-NJ.PA
Otiando-Kissirnmff.Sanfotd, Fl Philade1phia-Camden-Wilmington. PA-NJ-OE-MO
Raleigh-Cary, NC
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
S.etamento-Roseville-Arden-~acJ.. CA
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Martos. CA
San Francisco-Oakland-Hay,.,vard, CA
San Jose-Str.nyvale-Santa Clara, CA
Seattle-Tatom.a-Bellevue. WA
Tampa.S.. Pet•1'$b1Jrg-Clearwate,r, FL
Washington-Atfington-AJe.xanclria, OC-VA-MD-WV
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Oettay Beach, Fl
-~2001
--------~-------------------.,,.~-----------.~ ....
..,.. ""
,,. ... '"' "' ... ,~
,,.
"'
...
"" , ..
"" "'
""
'"
... ··~
,.----. .. ,~
"" .. ..
"''" ~ ---,
..s,. °"' s, 10'\ 1S\, 20'\ 2S\, ~'°' 35, 40\o .ts, so.. ss~ 60\o 65, 70\o ,s, 80\o es, ~ 96\o 100'\ ,os, $hare ol °'9NhOM
• 6ll)tl)7S0 .,,. ...
-·---c--
Metro Area: FICO Di81ribution by MSA -- -Allanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX
Ba1bmore-TOW50n, MO
Boston-Cambridge..Quincy, MA-NH
Chartotte-Gasionia-Rock Hill, NC-SC
Ct'IM:~liet-Nape,ville, ll·IN-\1111
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
Detroit-Warrer'K.ivonia, Ml
Fort Lauderdale.Pompano Se.ch-Deerfield Beach, FL
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar land. TX
Jacksonville, Fl
LH Vegas-Paradise, tN
Los Angeles-Long 8Mt-h-Gfendate. CA
Mra,noa,.Fort Lauderdale-West Pam Be.ch, FL
MinMapol!,'.S-St.. Paul-Sbomington. MN-VIII
NashVllle-OavidsM-Murfreesboto-Franklin, TN New Yodc-Notthern New Jersey-long Island, NY-NJ.PA
Otiando-Kissirnmff.Sanfotd, Fl Philade1phia-Camden-Wilmington. PA-NJ-OE-MO
Raleigh-Cary, NC
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
S.etamento-Roseville-Arden-~acJ.. CA
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Martos. CA
San Francisco-Oakland-Hay,.,vard, CA
San Jose-Str.nyvale-Santa Clara, CA
Seattle-Tatom.a-Bellevue. WA
Tampa.S.. Pet•1'$b1Jrg-Clearwate,r, FL
Washington-Atfington-AJe.xanclria, OC-VA-MD-WV
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Oettay Beach, Fl
• &ipwnbtr 20#7
,,.. ,,.
... ... ...
'"' ... ... ... ....
... "' .-... ' <W
' Y•
. "' ·- ·~ '" ... -... ...
·,~ .,.
... "" ,. ...
... .... ..s,. °"' s, 10'\ 1S\, 20'\ 2S\, ~'°' 35, 40\o .ts, so.. ss~ 60\o 65, 70\o ,s, 80\o es, ~ 96\o 100'\ ,os,
$hare ol °'9NhOM
• 6ll)tl)7S0 .,,. ...
-·---c--
Home Prices
~ ••
~ PRDERAL 11!1~,"'.W R&SERVE
DANK • q(ATLA.~A
US Home Prt -~.... ceTrend 16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
C 6.0% .g ~ 4.0%
j 2.0% 1l ~ 0.0%
§ :r -2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
-12.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Home Price A . Home p · pprec1ation (B nee Index (L. ars) ine)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
X
" V .E
" ·!! a.
~ ~
US Existing vs New Median Homa Price 81aft111Cu.&C-.aniu(IIQC)
$3"0,000
$320,000
$300,000
$280,000
.g Q,
$260,000
" E 0
$240.000 :,: C
~ " :;
$220.000 2' ~ ill $200,000
$180,000
$160.000
$140,000
New Home Price
Existing Home Price
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
$3"0,000
$320,000
$300,000
$280,000
$260,000 .. !! Q,
$240.000 .. § :,:: C: ..
$220,000 i lE ~ .. z
$200,000
$180,000
$160,000
$140,000
Metro Area: Home Price Appnciation Rank -- -San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Ctara, CA
Seatll&-Tecoma-Belevue, WA
Las Vegas-Paradise, Ml San Franciaco-Oakland-Hay,,tard, CA
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, Ml
Sac:ramento-ROMvile-Alden-Artade, CA
Denv.t-Aurora-lakewood, CO Noshville,-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Frankbn, TN
Riverside-San B&rnardino-Ontario, CA San O.ego-Carls~San Martos, CA
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH
Los Angeles-Long Beac~lendale, CA
Oa!tas--fort Worth-Allington, TX
Jacksonville. FL
Tam~-Sl Petersbu,v.Qearwater. FL Chaiiotte-Oa&tonia-Rock Hill. NC-SC
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, fl
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswel . GA
Austin-Round Rock-San Mart0$. TX
Raleigh-Cary, NC
Fort Lauderdale,.Pompano Beac:h-Oeerfield Beac:h, FL
Chicego-Jot;.1-Naperville, IL-IN-WI
New York-Northern New Jersey-long Island. NY -NJ.PA
HOU&ton-lhlt Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
M .. mi-Fort lauderdale-WHt Palm Beac:h, FL
West Palm Beach-Boca Ra!M-0.lray Beach, fl
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MO-WV
Philadelphia-Camde~Vi/ilmington, PA-flll-OE-MD
Bahimor&-TOW5on. MD
0.0% 1.0% 20%
.. ,. , ....
l(i~
3.0%
.... "" "" ,,~ ....
""
4.0% 5.0%
.... .,,.
6.0%
"" "" "" "''
""' &e~ .... ....
, ...
7.0% 8.0% 9.0% Home Price Appec'8bon
-·---c--.....
104'i,
10.0% 11.0% 12 0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0%
Metro Area: Home Price Trend Miami-Fort Loode!d81&-Wt!llt Palm Be&ch, A. Soutt• CcreloglC, 11'1(
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
: 190
l :: 11111 :r
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
1 1m
10,,. ,,1111111 .,1111 llllllllllllllllllll1111111111111111m1 ::
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
Home Price Appreciation (Bars) Home Price Index (Line) -20.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 ~ 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Metro Area: Median Home Prtce by Zip Code Denwlr-Al.ronH.alcewo, co
Bhai = Zip Cod& Madlin Home Plfce la G-Than $250,000
~~
Metro Area: Median Home Price Denwr-AIJroraolakewaod, CO
Bbe = Zip Code Median Harne Pllce la~ Tllan $250,000
$360.000
$340.000
$320.000
$300.000
$280,000
$260,000
$240.000
$220.000
$200.000
$180,000
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
-Cllrr.w•-----_.,_ -!!I--"""'
Metro Area: Median Home Prtce by Zip Code Denwlr-Al.ronH.alcewo, co Bhai = Zip Cod& Madlin Home Plfce la G-Than $250,000
Nowunbar2017 --Metro Area: Median Home Price Denwr-AIJroraolakewaod, CO
Bbe = Zip Code Median Harne Price la~ Tllan $250,000
NoWimb« 21)17 Soun:• Cotelogl(.
$360.000
$340.000
$320.000
$300.000
$280,000
$260,000
$240.000
$220.000
$200.000
$180,000
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
-Cllrr.w•-----_.,_ --1!1--"""'
US Statu by Price Point -- -~2006
260,000
240.000
220,000
200.000
180,000
160.000
~ i5 140,000 C C
< 120.000
100,000
80.000
60,000
40.000
20,000
0 $200 Under $200-$249
-
100,418
87.ll19
$250-$299 $300-$399 $400-$499 $500-$749 $750-$999 lllil
$1M Over
_ ... -c--
US Statu by Price Point -- · ,,_,,,,,., 2017 -260,000
240.000
220,000
200.000
180,000
160.000
~ i5 140,000 C C
< 120.000
100,000
80.000
60,000 1111.2118 50,987
40.000 34~77
20,000
0
14Ji02 1,,002 -$200 Under $200-$249 $250-$299 $300-$399 $400-$499 $500-$749 $750-$999 $1M Over
Metro Area: Starts under $250,000 Houm!-Tht~tl.Md,TX --NO'l'E: Blua~Cod .. i.v. ....... 1'1'1-~-UndotS:UOMO
\_~
-
Mitro Ane: Starts by Prtc:e Point -Jum, 2/)()l
~ TIit Woodlanda-Sugtt Lard, TX -- ..... 35.000
30.000
27.560
25,000
~ 20.000 (/)
C C <
15.000
10,000
8.223
5,000 I 3.89* 4. 189
1,6 12 -0 UOOUMw $200420 S~-1.299 5300.ll99 .........
1,002 503 - -150()4149 17&0-$9"
580 -l1MOYw
------_ ... -o--
Metro Area: Starts under $250,000 Houm!-Tht~tl.Md,TX -- • Dllcember 2017
NO'l'E: Blua~Cod .. i.v. ....... 1'1'1-~-UndotS:UOMO
\_~ Mitro Ane: Starts by Prtc:e Point ~ TIit Woodlanda-Sugtt Lard, TX --
35.000
30.000
25,000
~ 20.000 (/)
1 15.000
10,000
6,793 S,913
5,000 I 5.133
4,005
0
-o.-nber 2017
.....
2.980
II 1,888 -UOOUMw $200420 S~-1.299 5300.ll99 ......... 150()4149
339 477 -1760.$"9 l1MOYw
------_.,. -o--
Metro Area: Starts by Price Point Houston-The Woodl1111d..Sugar Land, TX
35.000
30.000
25.000
"' i5 20,000 <ii C:
~ 15,000
10.000
5.000 4,006
0 S200UndM' $200-$249
- December 2017
-
417
$250.$299 $500.$749 $750,$999 S1M Over
Housing Affordability
~ PRDERAL 11!1~,"'.W R&SERVE
DANK • q(ATLA.~A
US Affordability Index _.,._
ll ~
i " "E .g <(
155
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
BO
2000 2001 2002
Affordability Index (Bars) Mortgage Interest Rate· 30 yr Fixed (Line)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008 2()10 2011
8.5%
8.0%
7.5%
7.0%
6.5%
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
2012 2()13 2014 2()15 2016 2()17 2()18
ci--a .... .._ ... a...,..._ ... Vt,11
CJ ........ ~ CJ ........ ,......... CJ ........ ... a--.... a--.... 13.....,.. .... c:eo.,, ... a---o....._ .... ..... CJ....._ ......... .... CJ....._ ............ . C)~MIIIMtNalCIIL. CJ~ ....... °""' CJ~ ...... --. -a--i CJ~..., ... .,, ..
~ s===w, ! B=:: C 8::::::: ! o....,~w .. a: au ~ O••• ~ 8~ & 8:::-"nc g 8::: ~ 8:=-. a ......... ....... a ............... . a-a ................ 1111.. a-a---c ........... ...
a..,... ........ 'tf# ci--CJ .......... p;a: cici--a ....... .......... a ....... ~ g ....... ....
Metro Area: Affordability Index Dalm-Fat Wcl1h,,Mngfart, TX ----"'-
195
190 Affordability Index (Bars) Mortgage Interest Rate - 30 yr Fixed (Line)
185
180
175
i 170
,,. I 166
i ,( 160
156
150
146
140
135
2000 2001 2()()2 2003 2004 2()()5 2006 2007 2008 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013
;:.::TIC a-.., a_ ...
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
a--a-.. a-.. 85% a-"' CJ .............. a--. ...
a-"' 8.0%
a-.. a.........,......., a--CJ•.,._., .. CJ ..... OiA. .....
7 5% a-,. a-,.. a-........ a--
70% 18:::::-u: 0.....,..,,....,0IIIA. i o~...awi ..
65% > D~M i;i a--• - a-... J O..,.....Tlllllifl\lM
6.0% 0--~IA
I e::-::· c: 0......_,.,Mw,TX
55% g, a_.,,, f a_ ... a-"'
o o~wr "' a-...
50% a-... a-... a ...... r:r ........ a-•
4 5% a-.. a-.. a--p a .... Q,.ec.,...._ 40% a-...
CJ-a, a ..... ~ ... a--
3 5% a~ ......... a-a a-.. n ............ ,..,.,
Metro Area: Affordablltty Trend AJrordilblllly lndeic ____ .,_ aore.....,._. •• .,.. .......... i.. .... w•i.....,... -Chicago-Joli,e.t.NapeMlle. IL-tN.WI
Mirv.eapol1s.-St. Paul,-Bloom1ngton, MN.WI
Oetroit·Warren•Livonra, Ml
Atlanta-Sandy Springs,.-Roswel . GA
Philadelphia-Camde~Vi/ilmington, PA-flll-OE-MD
Raleigh-Cary. NC Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Oa!tas--fort Worth-Allington, TX Wastw\gton-M1ngton-Alei«1ncfna. OC.VA-MO-WV
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboto--F ranklin, TN
Bal1imore-Ta.vson, MD
Chariotte-Oastonia-Rock Hill. NC-SC
Jacksonville, fl T ampa,-St. Petersburg-Cleaiwater, fl
Orlando-Kl&simmee.S,anford, FL
Austin-Round Rock-San Mart0$. TX
Wes1 Palm Beac~Boca Ra1on-De1ray Beach, Fl Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Oeetfietd Beach, fl
Las Vegas-Paradise, Ml Boston-Cambridg,e-Ouincy, MA-NH
Oenver-Aurora-lakewood, CO
Seattl&-T.coma-Belevue, WA
M .. mi-Fort lauderdale-WHt Palm Bea,h, FL
Sacramento-Rosevile-Atden-Art::ade, CA
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA New York-Northern New Jersey-long Island. NY -NJ.PA
San Oiego-CarlsOOd-San Mart0$, CA
San Jose.Sunnyvale-Sant.a Clara. CA
los Angeles•Long Beath-GlendaJe, CA
San Franciaco-Oakland·Hay,,tard, CA
0 "
10 20 30 40 so
.. ., .. n ..
•1
60 70 80 90 100 Affordabikty Index
,,. 130 ,,.
123
120
113
1'2
10> ...
110 120 130
,,.
140
... ... 1S3
'" ... ... ...
150 160
.. , ...
170
172
180
Metro Area: Affordablltty Trend AJrordilblllly lndeic (ltt#elNt Re = 7 l'9rl:«t) ____ .,_ aore.....,._. •• .,.. .......... i.. .... w•i.....,... -Chicago-Joli,e.t.NapeMlle. IL-tN.WI
Mirv.eapol1s.-St. Paul,-Bloom1ngton, MN.WI
Oetroit·Warren•Livonra, Ml
Atlanta-Sandy Springs,.-Roswel . GA
Philadelphia-Camde~Vi/ilmington, PA-flll-OE-MD
Raleigh-Cary. NC Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Oa!tas--fort Worth-Allington, TX Wastw\gton-M1ngton-Alei«1ncfna. OC.VA-MO-WV
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboto--F ranklin, TN
Bal1imore-Ta.vson, MD
Chariotte-Oastonia-Rock Hill. NC-SC
Jacksonville, fl T ampa,-St. Petersburg-Cleaiwater, fl
Orlando-Kl&simmee.S,anford, FL
Austin-Round Rock-San Mart0$. TX
Wes1 Palm Beac~Boca Ra1on-De1ray Beach, Fl Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Oeetfietd Beach, fl
Las Vegas-Paradise, Ml Boston-Cambridg,e-Ouincy, MA-NH
Oenver-Aurora-lakewood, CO
Seattl&-T.coma-Belevue, WA
M .. mi-Fort lauderdale-WHt Palm Bea,h, FL
Sacramento-Rosevile-Atden-Art::ade, CA
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA New York-Northern New Jersey-long Island. NY -NJ.PA
San Oiego-CarlsOOd-San Mart0$, CA
San Jose.Sunnyvale-Sant.a Clara. CA
los Angeles•Long Beath-GlendaJe, CA
San Franciaco-Oaklanc:Utay,,tard, CA
0
,. 10 20 30 40
73 .. .. S3
50
•• so 60 70
120
"' "' ... 112
106
106
106
106
100
100
102 ., .. .. .. .. .. "'
80
••
80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 Affordabikty Index
Metro Area: Afl'ordalllllty by Zip Code AHotdllblllty Index 6 pwc«Jt ftfodtlet,& fnttnat Rm ---NOTlt ............................ - ..... Al'IIMIMt
/ \
\
I '-,.., /-
\ \
I
----AV9.0$ 230 ...... 2210
Metro Area: Afl'ordalllllty by Zip Code AHotdllblllty Index 7 pwc«Jt ftfodtlet,& fnttnat Rm ---NOTlt ............................ - ..... Al'IIMIMt
/ \
\
I '-,.., /-
\ \
I
----AV9.0$ 230 ...... 2210
Conclusions
· Housing Market 2018 • Demand should remain healthy, driven by steady job growth and
1nigration. • The construction of affordable product wi ll continue to be restrained
in many regions as costs continue to increase and lot supplies dimjnjsh.
• Due to tight housing and lot inventory levels, most regions will continue to experience a strain on housing affordability.
Potential Risks Tight supply levels may suppress sales in the housing market. Rising interest rates and declining affordability may lead to • a contraction in demand, • a correction in prices, • and the rise of alternative mortgage instruments.