bamboo, rats and food security: scientific background ... · pdf fileimportance of plague in...

Bamboo, Rats and Food Security:Bamboo, Rats and Food Security:

Scientific backgroundScientific backgroundSituational analysis & Situational analysis & RecommendationsRecommendations

Dr Steven Belmain, Rodent EcologistNatural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, UK

UNDPUNDP--sponsored mission of 14 scientific sponsored mission of 14 scientific expertsexperts

DAE, DU, BSMRAU, BARI, BRRI, NGOs from DAE, DU, BSMRAU, BARI, BRRI, NGOs from Bangladesh and Natural Resources Institute, UKBangladesh and Natural Resources Institute, UK

Wildlife, rodent ecology, bamboo ecology, Wildlife, rodent ecology, bamboo ecology, community extension, agricultural economics, community extension, agricultural economics, plant protection, pest management, sociologyplant protection, pest management, sociology

Is there a crisis in the CHT?Is there a crisis in the CHT?

YesYes

A widespread phenomenon accepted by all A widespread phenomenon accepted by all ecologists and rat expertsecologists and rat experts

But it remains poorly understood which limits But it remains poorly understood which limits our intervention optionsour intervention options

Is there internationally respected Is there internationally respected scientific acknowledgement for scientific acknowledgement for rat floods following bamboo rat floods following bamboo flowering?flowering?

•• Rat numbers go up and down with the seasons Rat numbers go up and down with the seasons because of changes in food availability or shelterbecause of changes in food availability or shelter

•• InterInter--annual variation is also well documentedannual variation is also well documented

•• Environmental factors and climate can lead to Environmental factors and climate can lead to years where food availability is unusually high, years where food availability is unusually high, providing better conditions for rats to thriveproviding better conditions for rats to thrive

•• Population outbreaks of rats are a wellPopulation outbreaks of rats are a well--accepted accepted phenomenon in many parts of the world where phenomenon in many parts of the world where the numbers of rats become unusually highthe numbers of rats become unusually high

Rodent Population DynamicsRodent Population Dynamics

4 nights’ catch, 1917 Lascelles, Victoria, Australia

Countries with documented rodent outbreaks Countries with documented rodent outbreaks following synchronous bamboo flowering following synchronous bamboo flowering

RainfallRainfall--related rodent outbreaks found in semirelated rodent outbreaks found in semi--arid zonesarid zones

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Peru Bangladesh, IndiaArgentina, Brazil, Chile, Peru Bangladesh, India, Laos, Myanmar, Laos, Myanmar

Madagascar JapanMadagascar Japan

•• Perennial evergreen in the True Grass family Perennial evergreen in the True Grass family Poaceae, subfamily Bambusiodeae. Poaceae, subfamily Bambusiodeae.

•• Most species flower infrequently and Most species flower infrequently and gregariously over intervals ranging from <10 to gregariously over intervals ranging from <10 to >120 years, depending on species.>120 years, depending on species.

•• Synchronised flowering is genetically triggered Synchronised flowering is genetically triggered

•• Mass flowering and seeding has probably Mass flowering and seeding has probably evolved to deal with seed predation and to evolved to deal with seed predation and to expand bamboo habitat dominance (satiation expand bamboo habitat dominance (satiation and fire cycle hypotheses)and fire cycle hypotheses)

Bamboo EcologyBamboo Ecology

Global occurrence of theGlobal occurrence of the BambusidaeBambusidae

Found across the wet equatorial tropics of the worldFound across the wet equatorial tropics of the world

Vegetation Vigour: NDVI21st thru 30th April 2008 vs.

Average (1998-2007)

Data and Map Source: FAO GIEWShttp://www.fao.org/giews/workstation/page.jspxOriginal satellite imagery data from SPOT

•• There are no ecological studies There are no ecological studies about the bamboo/rodent about the bamboo/rodent phenomena from anywhere in phenomena from anywhere in the worldthe world

•• There are scientific publications There are scientific publications providing providing ““snap shotsnap shot”” surveys of surveys of rodent outbreaks, but linkages rodent outbreaks, but linkages to bamboo flowering are not to bamboo flowering are not clearclear

•• There are reliable historical There are reliable historical reports of severe famines linked reports of severe famines linked to rodent outbreaks and to rodent outbreaks and bamboo floweringbamboo flowering

Ecological QuestionsEcological Questions

Are bamboo flowers an aphrodisiac for Are bamboo flowers an aphrodisiac for rodents or are rodents or are oestrogenicoestrogenic compounds compounds present in seeds?present in seeds?

Or is it simply food abundance?Or is it simply food abundance?

Why do some flowering events Why do some flowering events notnot result in rodent outbreaks?result in rodent outbreaks?

Can outbreaks be managed Can outbreaks be managed or prevented?or prevented?

Current Ecological StatusCurrent Ecological StatusLittle information came out of Tripura and Little information came out of Tripura and Manipur States, but event did occur there. Manipur States, but event did occur there.

Flowering event is largely over in Flowering event is largely over in MizoramMizoram, , some limited studies were carried outsome limited studies were carried out

No research or surveillance No research or surveillance being carried out in being carried out in Bangladesh or MyanmarBangladesh or Myanmar

Can Bangladesh learn from the Can Bangladesh learn from the Mizoram State experience?Mizoram State experience?

Mizoram government developed Bamboo Mizoram government developed Bamboo Flowering and Famine Combat SchemeFlowering and Famine Combat Scheme

Mizoram 2004 Flowering eventMizoram 2004 Flowering event

•• Training and awareness campaignsTraining and awareness campaigns•• Documentation of event and damageDocumentation of event and damage•• Distribution of free rodenticidesDistribution of free rodenticides•• Distribution of food aidDistribution of food aid•• Promotion of turmeric, jatropha and other crops instead of ricePromotion of turmeric, jatropha and other crops instead of rice•• International science teamInternational science team•• Bamboo harvesting, seed collectionBamboo harvesting, seed collection•• Promoting rePromoting re--establishment of diversified bamboo speciesestablishment of diversified bamboo species•• Promoting economic diversificationPromoting economic diversification

Mizo Hills is culturally quite distinct from the Mizo Hills is culturally quite distinct from the rest of India and was part of Assam Staterest of India and was part of Assam State

Tribal life based on Tribal life based on JhumJhum agriculture and agriculture and semisemi--nomadic lifestylenomadic lifestyle

Bamboo flowering started in 1958Bamboo flowering started in 1958

The Mizo Cultural Front morphed into the The Mizo Cultural Front morphed into the Mizo National Famine FrontMizo National Famine Front

The Mizoram Uprising of 1966The Mizoram Uprising of 1966

The Mizo National Famine Front morphed The Mizo National Famine Front morphed into the Mizo National Front in 1961into the Mizo National Front in 1961

Armed insurrection broke out in 1966Armed insurrection broke out in 1966

Settlement and peace accord with the MNF Settlement and peace accord with the MNF in 1986 in 1986 –– 20 years later20 years later

Statehood granted to Mizoram in 1987Statehood granted to Mizoram in 1987

The Mizoram Uprising of 1966The Mizoram Uprising of 1966

Mizoram BAFFACOS strategy seems to Mizoram BAFFACOS strategy seems to have averted disaster during current event. have averted disaster during current event. However, they didnHowever, they didn’’t always get it right as t always get it right as predicting localised outbreaks was difficult.predicting localised outbreaks was difficult.

Evidence gathered during the 2004 Evidence gathered during the 2004 MizoramMizoramevent suggests flowering is synchronised but event suggests flowering is synchronised but that seed production rate and abundance of that seed production rate and abundance of seed is highly variableseed is highly variable

Early season seed onset means food for rodents Early season seed onset means food for rodents is available over longer period, allowing is available over longer period, allowing population to expandpopulation to expand

These differences may These differences may explain why some areas explain why some areas experience rat floods experience rat floods and others do notand others do not

Bamboo species that are Bamboo species that are predominant across the predominant across the Bengal Bay ecoBengal Bay eco--region region include >20 species from include >20 species from the genera:the genera:MelocannaMelocannaDendrocalamusDendrocalamusBambusaBambusaSchizostachyum Schizostachyum Sinarundinaria Sinarundinaria

Current flowering event is Current flowering event is M. bacciferaM. baccifera and and D. D. hamiltoniihamiltonii -- the two most the two most common species, >80%common species, >80%

Trapping in Mizoram dominated by Trapping in Mizoram dominated by Rattus Rattus rattusrattus

No evidence of early onset of breeding, i.e. no No evidence of early onset of breeding, i.e. no hormonal / aphrodisiac effectshormonal / aphrodisiac effects

Uterine scars of >40, i.e. Uterine scars of >40, i.e. individuals have a high individuals have a high number of large littersnumber of large litters

Large females that are pregnant and lactating Large females that are pregnant and lactating simultaneouslysimultaneously

Breeding in dry seasonBreeding in dry season

Food availability leads to faster Food availability leads to faster breeding and larger litters over breeding and larger litters over a long period of time and, a long period of time and, therefore, a large population therefore, a large population expansionexpansion

We carried out rat trapping in We carried out rat trapping in ThanchiThanchi with with additional data collection in additional data collection in RumaRuma

Percent capture rate extremely high, with Percent capture rate extremely high, with ‘‘newnew’’species that have not been observed in species that have not been observed in MizoramMizoram

Optimal physiological breeding stateOptimal physiological breeding state

CHT Flowering Event 2008CHT Flowering Event 2008

Very high levels of rat damage to all crops, food Very high levels of rat damage to all crops, food stores, personal possessionsstores, personal possessions

Bamboo flowering can not be Bamboo flowering can not be ““switched offswitched off””

Monitoring localised timing and abundance of Monitoring localised timing and abundance of seed production can predict severity of seed production can predict severity of subsequent rat floodssubsequent rat floods

Rat killing campaigns need to be highly Rat killing campaigns need to be highly coordinated over large areas coordinated over large areas –– several several communities acting togethercommunities acting together

Rat flood barriers may be more effective than Rat flood barriers may be more effective than rat killing campaignsrat killing campaigns

Implications for ManagementImplications for Management

Policy RecommendationsPolicy Recommendations

National Strategy across Agriculture, Health, National Strategy across Agriculture, Health, Forestry, Environment, Education and CHTForestry, Environment, Education and CHT

Replicate and Improve on Replicate and Improve on MizoramMizoram State State Government Action PlanGovernment Action Plan

MizoramMizoram’’ss 55--year plan works across all 15 year plan works across all 15 government departments with roughly government departments with roughly ££2 2 million pounds invested each yearmillion pounds invested each year


Training, awareness raising and extension Training, awareness raising and extension programme to train stakeholders and programme to train stakeholders and communities on trapping, proofing, communities on trapping, proofing, community actioncommunity action

Distribution of Distribution of ““newnew”” traps and technologytraps and technology

Bangladesh has wellBangladesh has well--established network for established network for rodent training, knowledge extension and rodent training, knowledge extension and capacity building capacity building


•• Poverty Elimination through Rice Poverty Elimination through Rice Research Assistance Research Assistance -- PETRRAPETRRA

•• Crop Protection Programme Crop Protection Programme -- CPPCPP

•• Research Into Use Programme Research Into Use Programme -- RIURIU

Training and capacity buildingTraining and capacity building

Rat Management for Rat Management for Rural CommunitiesRural CommunitiesFunded byFunded by

Lead organisationLead organisation

Project partnersProject partners

1) Training and capacity building of institutions1) Training and capacity building of institutions

2) Training and capacity building of communities2) Training and capacity building of communities

3) Local production & marketing of new rat traps3) Local production & marketing of new rat traps

4) Communication & awareness raising4) Communication & awareness raising

5) Policies & recommendations

Rat Management for Rat Management for Rural CommunitiesRural Communities

5) Policies & recommendations

Bogra

Netrokona

Kushtia

Comilla

Satkhira

Bamboo forest ecology is entering a period of Bamboo forest ecology is entering a period of largelarge--scale disruption. Many strange things scale disruption. Many strange things are and will continue to happen within the are and will continue to happen within the food web. Are we prepared for them?food web. Are we prepared for them?

RodentRodent--borne diseases : Hantaviruses, borne diseases : Hantaviruses, murinemurine typhus, typhus, leptospirosisleptospirosis, plague, , plague, haemorrhagic fevers, increased food and haemorrhagic fevers, increased food and water contamination leading to water contamination leading to dysentarydysentary


Discovery of new foci = based on human cases!World Distribution of Plague, 1970-2005Discovery of new foci = based on human cases!World Distribution of Plague, 1970-2005World Distribution of Plague, 1970-2005Importance of Plague in modern timesImportance of Plague in modern times

Surat, Surat, Gujarat, Gujarat, India, 1994India, 1994

SuratSurat plague outbreakplague outbreakSqualid highSqualid high--density slum conditions and poor sanitation promote transmissiondensity slum conditions and poor sanitation promote transmission

Confusion fuelled by poor levels of information in government prConfusion fuelled by poor levels of information in government press statementsess statements

Media reports unconfirmed/suspected cases, exaggerating death toMedia reports unconfirmed/suspected cases, exaggerating death tollslls

Agricultural exports and cargo embargoed, export loss of more thAgricultural exports and cargo embargoed, export loss of more than $420 millionan $420 million

Investor confidence plummets, $3 billion loss to Indian economyInvestor confidence plummets, $3 billion loss to Indian economy

45,000 people cancelled flights to India45,000 people cancelled flights to India

International migrant workers strandedInternational migrant workers stranded

Divali [Festival of Lights] cancelledDivali [Festival of Lights] cancelled

Official death toll was 56Official death toll was 56

Approx. 700 suspected casesApprox. 700 suspected cases

High rodent High rodent populations promote populations promote transmissiontransmission

Is Bangladesh ready Is Bangladesh ready for a plague for a plague incursion?

Economic nonEconomic non--disease costs can disease costs can be very highbe very high

incursion?

In the CHT there have been increased reports In the CHT there have been increased reports of dysentery and malariaof dysentery and malaria--like symptoms during like symptoms during rodent outbreaks rodent outbreaks –– indicator of ratindicator of rat--borne borne diseases diseases –– which ones?which ones?

What is the health impact of rodents, will this What is the health impact of rodents, will this increase and spread to other areas outside the increase and spread to other areas outside the CHT?CHT?

Are CHT clinicians able to recognise plague Are CHT clinicians able to recognise plague symptoms and respond appropriately?symptoms and respond appropriately?


Research on rodent population dynamics and Research on rodent population dynamics and efficacy of control strategies in the CHTefficacy of control strategies in the CHT

Research on socioResearch on socio--economic impact of rat economic impact of rat flood and loss of bambooflood and loss of bamboo

Health research on Health research on zoonosiszoonosis and and dysentarydysentary

Research on monitoring timing of bamboo seed Research on monitoring timing of bamboo seed production and abundance and the underlying production and abundance and the underlying causes in order to develop a sampling strategy causes in order to develop a sampling strategy leading to targeted, prioritised assistanceleading to targeted, prioritised assistance


Fire prevention Fire prevention –– protected areasprotected areas

Diversification of bamboo species planted to Diversification of bamboo species planted to reduce dominance of any speciesreduce dominance of any species

Economic assistance Economic assistance during bamboo recovery during bamboo recovery / regeneration that is / regeneration that is predicted to take predicted to take 55--6 years6 years


Law & Order Law & Order –– mentioned by local NGOs mentioned by local NGOs operating in the CHToperating in the CHT

Lack of food and rodent outbreak is causing Lack of food and rodent outbreak is causing protests to local authorities protests to local authorities –– will this escalate?will this escalate?

Disease epidemics Disease epidemics –– are quarantine are quarantine procedures in place?procedures in place?


Starvation, mass migration, international Starvation, mass migration, international criticismcriticism

Increased interIncreased inter--cultural tensions cultural tensions and bitternessand bitterness

Adversity breeds contempt and Adversity breeds contempt and organisation against a common organisation against a common enemyenemy

What happens if a strategic plan What happens if a strategic plan is not implemented?is not implemented?

Bamboo flowering event will take 3Bamboo flowering event will take 3--4 years4 years

Bamboo regeneration will take 5Bamboo regeneration will take 5--6 years6 years

Rat floods are certain this year and next year in Rat floods are certain this year and next year in many parts of the CHT, with rat floods in 2010 many parts of the CHT, with rat floods in 2010 also likelyalso likely

Rodent damage to peopleRodent damage to people’’s livelihoods is s livelihoods is severesevere

Technical and managerial solutions exist to help Technical and managerial solutions exist to help reduce impacts and avert potential disastersreduce impacts and avert potential disasters

Summary scienceSummary science

CrossCross--departmental 5departmental 5--year planyear plan

Research multidisciplinary 3Research multidisciplinary 3--year projectyear project

Rat management training and capacity building Rat management training and capacity building 44--year investment, RIUyear investment, RIU--style programmestyle programme

Contact WHO Epidemic Readiness and Contact WHO Epidemic Readiness and Response Team Response Team –– Dr Eric Dr Eric BertheratBertherat

Short term food crisis assistanceShort term food crisis assistance

Mid to long term economic reconstruction Mid to long term economic reconstruction

Summary recommendationsSummary recommendations

Thank YouThank You

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