Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 1

Water Resource ManagementChallenges in the 21st Century

Balázs M. FeketeDepartment of Civil Engineering

CUNY CREST InstituteCUNY Environmental CrossRoads Initiative

The City College of New YorkCity University of New York

Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 2

Planetary Boundaries

Rockström et al., Nature 2009

Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 3

Balanced Triangle

Bogardi et al., COSUST 2013

Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 4

Desert Locust

Swarm size: 1200 km2

Density: 40-80×106 llt/km2

Weight: 2g

http://animals.nationalgeographic.com/animals/bugs/locust.html

ppl/km2 ha/ppl

World 51.2 1.96

Urban 943.9 0.11

Urban + Cultivated 350.2 0.29

Australia 2.8 36.1

Bangladesh 1083.7 0.09

European Union 113.7 0.88

Hungary 106.5 0.94

India 351.9 0.26

Japan 336.3 0.30

The Netherlands 402.4 0.25

United States 31.2 2.98

Desert Locust Swarm 1100.0 0.09

Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 5

Physical Boundaries

Population Density ppl/km2 ha/ppl

Eurpean Union 113.7 0.880

India 351.9 0.284

United States 31.2 3.205

World 51.2 1.953

Urban 943.9 0.106

Urban + Cultivated 350.2 0.286

Population Density ppl/km2 ha/ppl

New York, USA 1,776 0.056

Paris, France 2,845 0.035

Tokyo, Japan 4,357 0.023

Beijing, China 5,216 0.019

Kathmandu, Nepal 18,433 0.054

Lima, Peru 14,506 0.069

Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 6

Do the Math

http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math

Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 7

Doubled Energy Use Distribution

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Per Capita [W] Total [TW] Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Population

Pe

r C

apita

Co

nsum

ptio

n [

W]

Tota

l Con

sum

ptio

n [T

W]

2000 kCal day-1 ~ 100 W Solar insolation over land is 183 W m-2

Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 8

Random Numbers

● 0.9 billion people has no access to safe drinking water

● 2.3 billion people has no piped water in their home● 2.6 billion people has no proper sanitation● 1.1 billion people defecate in the open● 2 million people (mostly children) die every year

due to diarrheal diseases (285/million)● 70,000 mostly elderly people died (harvesting) in

the 2003 European heatwave affecting 0.5 billion population (140/million)

● 184 l/capita released untreated would require 18,720 km3 yr-1 dilution water

Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 9

Global Freshwater Fluxes to Oceans

Source Discharge

Baumgartner and Reichel (1975) 37,713

Korzoun et al. (1978) 46,900

L’vovich et al. (1990) 39,700

Oki et al. (1995) 22,311

Postel, et al. (1996) 40,700

Grabs, et al. (1996) 42,700

Nijssen et al. (2001) 36,103

Fekete, et al. (2002) 38,320

Dai, et al. (2009) 37,288

Schlosser and Houser (2007) 36,000

Syed et al. (2010) 32,851

Wisser et al. (2010a) 37,405

Haddeland et al. (2011) 42,000 – 66,000

Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 10

Climate Drivers and Runoff Response

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0Min. Max.

StdDev StdDev-

Air

Tem

per

atu

re [º

C]

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0AM GO OS

TG Max. StdDev

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0AM GO OS

TG Max. StdDev

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

-1000-800-600-400-200

0200400600800

1000Minimum Maximum

StdDev StdDev-

Pre

cipi

tatio

n [

mm

/yr]

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300AM GO OS

TG StdDev StdDev-

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300AM GO OS

TG StdDev StdDev-

20th Century 2030 2050

-100.00 -50.00 0.00 50.00 100.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

Run

off C

han

ge [m

m/y

r]

-60.00 -40.00 -20.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00

-75.0

-55.0

-35.0

-15.0

5.0

25.0

45.0

65.0

AM GO OS TG

-60.00 -40.00 -20.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00

-75.0

-55.0

-35.0

-15.0

5.0

25.0

45.0

65.0

AM GO OS TG

Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 11

GCM Climate Forcings

Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 12

Runoff Estimates Using ISI-MIP Data

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

450.00

RCP2p6 RCP4p5 RCP6p0 RCP8p5

Time [yr]

Run

off [

mm

/yr]

HadGEM2-ES

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

450.00

RCP2p6 RCP4p5 RCP6p0 RCP8p5

Time [yr]

Run

off [

mm

/yr]

IPSL-CM5A-LR

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

450.00

500.00

RCP2p6 RCP4p5 RCP6p0 RCP8p5

Time [yr]

Run

off [

mm

/yr]

GFDL-ESM2M

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

250

300

350

400

450

500

RCP2p6 RCP4p5 RCP6p0 RCP8p5

Time [yr]

Run

off [

mm

/yr]

NorESM1-M

Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 13

Temperature Stations in NCDC

D'Aleo and Watts, 2010

Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 14

Tornado Graph of GRDC's Data Archive

Water Management Challenges2015-01-14 15

Information Age