balance sheet
TRANSCRIPT
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Security Analysis
Financial StatementsBalance Sheet
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Income Statement Revenues -Cost of Goods Gross Income -Operating Expenses Operating Income -Financing Expenses -Taxes Net Income Before Extraordinary Items +/- Extraordinary Profits/(Losses) Preferred Dividends Net Common Income to Shareholders
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Principles
Accrual Accounting Categorization of Expenses into 1. Operating Expenses 2. Financing Expenses 3. Capital Expenditures
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Warning Signs EPS Growing Faster than Revenue
Year after Year Frequent Acquisitions or One Time
Charges Rapid Growth in Working Capital Changes in Inventory/Depreciation
Methods Change in Auditors
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Balance Sheet
What is it and What can Investors Use it For?
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Statement of Financial Position as of a Specific DateAssets Liabilities and Equity Cash Accounts Payable Accts Receivable Accrued Expenses Inventory Current Debt Prepaid Expenses Taxes Payable Current Assets Current Liabilities
Other Assets Long Term Debt
Fixed Assets Retained Earnings Net Fixed Assets Shareholders Equity
Total Assets Total Liabilities & Equity==================================
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Uses of the Balance Sheet
Assess Risk
Identify Value
Understand Competitive Advantage
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Info in the Balance Sheet
Division of Capital Between Senior Obligations and Common Equity
Strength or Weakness of Working Capital Position
Reconciliation of Earnings reported in income statement
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Info on the Balance Sheet
Data for Analyzing Relationship between Earnings Power and Asset Values. (Fixed/Variable Costs)
Data to Test True Business Success (ROIC)
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Impact of Debt
Magnifies Returns (Positive AND Negative)
Adds Fixed Costs
Adds Uncertainty
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How Much Debt is Enough?
Versus Business Model
Versus Peers
Working Capital
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Historic Value of Book Value Originally Represented Value of Private
Business (Tangible Assets) Today Little Relation to Market Value
for Many Companies Intangibles as Valuable as Plant Useful to Corroborate Income Statement Still Relevant in Energy, Financials,
Distressed
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Relationship of Going Concern ValueAnd Liquidation Value
Valu
e o
f Fi
rm
Going Concern Value
Liquidation Value
Going C
once
rn
Value
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Relationship of Going Concern ValueAnd Liquidation Value
Valu
e o
f Fi
rm
Going Concern Value
Liquidation Value
Going C
once
rn
Value
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Business Model and Profitability Drive BV Multiples
Price9/7/04
Price to Book Value
Return on Assets
EBAY $89.28 10.18x 8.88%
International Paper
$41.08 2.4x 0.87%
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Balance Sheet Can Discern Efficiency Trends
Cash Cycle: Time it Takes to Turn Raw Materials into Cash
Day in Inventory+Days Receivable-Days Payable
Fast is Good!
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Hewlett Packard 7/03Cash Cycle 10/1 1/02 4/02 7/02 10/0
21/03 4/03 7/03
DSO 62 55 57 62 59 58 56 56
Inventory Days
44 36 34 41 39 42 39 43
Payable Days
43 48 46 46 49 48 43 48
CCC 63 45 45 57 49 52 52 51
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Dell 7/03Cash Cycle 10/1 1/02 4/02 7/02 10/0
21/03 4/03 7/03
DSO 32 25 26 28 26 24 25 27
Inventory Days
4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4
Payable Days
70 66 68 73 71 68 70 72
CCC (34) (37) (38)
(41)
(41)
(41)
(42)
(41)
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Relative Profitability Dell/HPQ
Profit metrics
1/02
4/02
7/02 10/02 1/03 4/03
7/03
DellROA%
13 13 13 14 15 15 15
HPQ ROA%
4 3.3 2.4 4.2 4.9 4.9 3.9
DELL ROE%
35 36 39 42 46 48 48
HPQ ROE%
4.7 4.8 4.7 6.5 7.1 8.3 8.8
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Update on Dell/HPQ
Earnings 3,043 3,497
Interest Exp 0 225
Assets 23,215 76,138
Shareholders’ Equity 6,485 37,564
ROA 13.1% 4.9%
ROE 46.9% 9.3%
Dell 1/05 HPQ 10/04
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Accounting Ratios/Stock Price: Dell/HPQ
ROE 59.1% 8.08%
P/B 15.53 2.15
“Return on Mkt Cap” 3.81% 3.77%
P/E 26.4 25.5P/B = Price/Equity
ROE = NI/Equity
ROE x 1/(P/B) = return on market cap
= (NI/Equity x (1/(price/equity)Figures are per Yahoo Finance 9-05-05
Dell HPQ
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Balance Sheet Manipulation
Leases: Operating versus Capital
Pension Assets
Special Purpose entities
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Ratio Analysis: Combining IS and BS
Liquidity: Current Ratio, Working Capital to Sales Ratio
Asset Management: Inventory Turns, Asset Turns, Days Receivable
Profitability: Gross Margin, Operating Margin, ROA, ROE
Leverage Ratios: Debt to Capitalization
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For Company Selection
Calculate Liquidity, Asset, Profitability, and Leverage Ratios for your selected company and its comparable companies over each of the 5 years
LOOK at them. THINK about them Identify likely areas of required
accounting adjustments
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Ratios Current Ratio= Current Assets/Current Liabilities Working Capital Ratio= Working Capital/Sales Inventory Turns=Cost of Goods Sold/Inventory Asset Turns=Sales/Assets Receivable Days=Receivables/Sales x 365 Return on Assets=Net Income*/Total Assets Return on Equity=Net Inc/Shareholders Equity Return on Sales=Net Inc/Net Sales Gross Margin= (Sales-Cost of Gds Sold)/Sales Operating Margin=Operating Income/Sales Debt/Capital=Long Term Debt/Long Term
Debt+Shrhldrs Equity
*Some add back interest on debt
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What is in the 10k and What can We Learn?Item 1: Business Model and Strategy Industry Trends/ Comparisons2. Properties: Sources of Capacity and Revenues.
Exposure to currency and variation in cost levels
3. Legal Proceedings: Potential Liquidity issues4. Matters Requiring Shareholder Vote. Potential
material change in business (M&A)5. Stock Performance, Listings, Float, Dividend6. Selected Financial Data: Snapshot of
data deemed important by management. One time items
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What is in the 10k and What can We Learn?7. Management Discussion. Analysis of past
financial performance and future outlook. Strength and weakness in business operations and funding issues. Supplement to data in notes.
7a. Market Risk: Laundry list of risks and competition
8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data (notes). Indications for future sustainability and quality of earnings/Profitability
9. Changes and Disagreements w/Accountants. Potential red flags regarding quality of disclosure and financial performance.
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What is in the 10k and What can We Learn?
10. Directors/Officers and Conflicts11. Executive Compensation12. Ownership of Stock. Executives and
certain beneficial owners13. Related Party Transactions/Conflicts14. Exhibits, Statement Schedules.
More info providing insight (subjective accruals). New contracts. Off balance sheet entities. Changes in Bank covenants.