bai giang quan ly du an - dh bach khoa tp.hcm p1
TRANSCRIPT
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QUN L DNXY DNG
NCS. ThS.ng Xun Trng
O: HCMC University of Transport
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TI LIU THAM KHO
Nguyn V Bch Uyn. Qun L D n. Trng H Bchkhoa H Ni.
Th Xun Lan. Qun L D n Xy Dng. NXB HQGTP.HCM.
Lng c Long. Cc chuyn Qun L D n. NXB
trngi hc Bch khoa TP. H Ch Minh. L Vn Kim, Ng Quang Tng. Qun L D n Bng S
Mng. Trngi hc K Thut TP.HCM, 1997.
Nguyn Vnng. Qun L D nTp 1 v 2. NXB ThngK, nm 2003
March 15, 2011 2Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
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NH GI KT THC HC PHN
Thi kt thc hc phn:
Hnh thc: TlunThang im : 10
Ti liu: c sdng
March 15, 2011 3Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 4
Qun l dn xy dngNI DUNG
Phn I. Nhng vn chung vQLDAXD
Phn II. Hnh thnh tchc QLDAPhn III. Qun l thi gian v tin dn
Phn IV. Phn phi cc ngun lc ca dn
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 5
Chng 1: Dn v qun l dn
Chng 2: Phn tch dn
Chng 3: Cc chtiu hiu qu
PHN INhng vn chung vQLDAXD
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6/65March 15, 2011 6Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Khi nim dn
Cc giai on ca dn Phn loi dn
Qun l dn Cc chc nng ca qun l dn
Chng 1: Dn v QLDANI DUNG
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7/65March 15, 2011 7Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Khi nim dn
D n l tng th cc gii php s dngcc ngun lc hu hn vn c (nh tai, nhn cng v cc ngun lc tnhin khc v tin vn) nhmem li lich cao nht cho nhu t v x hi.
Dn l cc hot ngca c nhn hay mt tchc nhm vo vic sdng c hiu qucc
ngun lc u vo tc nhng mc tiu c
th
D n l tng th nhng chnh sch,hotng v chi ph c lin quan vinhau c thit k nhm t cnhng mc tiu nhtnh
Ngn hng thgii
Khi nim khc
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8/65March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 8
Khi nim dn
Mt syu tca dn1. Mc tiu2. Cc ch th u tv th hng3. Nhng gii phpc thit k4. Cc ngun lcc sdng
5. Cc sn phm vt cht v dch v cc loic to ra6. Thi gian hon thnh
7. Cc hot ng din ra di cc iu kinchnh tr x hi, kinh t lut php c th cacc nc
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9/65March 15, 2011 9Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Khi nim dn
Cc c tnh ca dnMcchNhm p ng mt nhu c u c nu ra.M c
tiu ca cc bphn thnh vin tham gia dn khxcnh.
Cc hotngCc quyt nh v cc cng vi c c quan h vinhau trong trnh t thc hin, trong s nh hngqua li , hng ti mcch
Cc rng buc
Cc rng buc v thi gian,Cc rng buc v ngun lc,
Ri ro
Mi trngu tbinng,
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10/65March 15, 2011 10Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Cc giai on ca dnXcnh d n
Pht hin nhng lnh vc c timnng u t, hnh thnh s
b cc nhu t
Phn tch v lp d nNghin cu chi tit u t
c xut trn mi phngdin: k thut, t chc - q un l, thch x hi, thng mi, ti chnh,kinh t
Thmnh d nXc minh li ton b kt lun c a ra trong qu trnh chun
b v phn tch d n
Thc hin d n
Cc hot ng ca d n t khi btu a kinh ph vo n khi d nchm dt hotng
Nghim thu d n
Xcnh nhng thnh cng v thtbi,
Rt ra nhng kinh nghim v bihc cho qun l cc d n khctrong tng lai.
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11/65March 15, 2011 11Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Phn loi dnTheo qui m
Dn lnDn nh
Theo mc chDn u tthay thDn u thin i hoDn u tmrngDn u tmi
Theo mi quan hgia cc dn
Dn u tc lp
Dn u tphthuc
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12/65March 15, 2011 12Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Qun l dn
Khi nim
Qun l dn l vic huyng cc ngun lc v tchc cc cng vic thc
hin mc tiu ra
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13/65March 15, 2011 13Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Lp khochXc nh cc cng vic cn
phi lmMc tiu v cc gii phpt c mc tiu trongphm vi gii hn vngunlc mi trng tchc
TchcHuy ng mt cch hp lcc ngun lc
Sp xp cch tin hnh cccng vic
Cc chc nng qun l dn
Lnh oHng dn v khuyn khch cc
thnh vin trong cng tc, hngvo mc tiu ca dn
Kim sotThu thp v xl thng tin vchi
ph, tin v cc tiu chun khckhi thc hin dn
iu chnh
iu chnh khach, cc hnhng, cc tiu chun cho ph hp
vi nhng thay i so vi khoch
nh
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14/65March 15, 2011 14Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Chng 2: Phn tch dn
Cc yu cu
Ni dung
Trnh tphn tch
Yu tthi gian trong phn tch
NI DUNG
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15/65March 15, 2011 15Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Cc yu cu
Tp hp cc chtiu xc nh mt dn l tt
hay khngLm r im mnh imyu ca dn
Gip ngi c quyn quytnh c y thng tin
cn thit
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16/65March 15, 2011 16Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Ni dung phn tch
Thtrng Kinh t
Ti chnh
Phn bli ch Chnh tr
Php lut
Kthut
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Ni dung phn tch (1)
Kinh t
Lm r hiu quca dn
theo quan im tng thquc gia
Ti chnhLm r hiu quca dn theo quanim ca cc tchc v c nhn tham
gia u tvo dn
Phn bli ch
Phn tch cc li ch v bt limang n cho cc nhm cdn khc nhau
Chnh tr
Xem xt cc nh hng v p lcc thc ca cc thlc chnh tri vi dn
Php lut
Xem xt cc thtc hnh chnh trong qu trnh lp dn c ph hpvi cc quy nh ca chnh quyn hay khng?
Xem qu trnh hot ng ca dn c vi phm cc lut php quc giahay khng?
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March 15, 2011 18Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Thtrng
Nhu cu vsn phm hin ti, tng lai
Khch hng chyu v khch hng mi?
Khnng p ng nhu cu hin ti
Sn phm thay th
Tip thv khuyn miKhnng cnh tranh ca sn phm (Gi cv
cht lng sn phm)
Ni dung phn tch (2)
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March 15, 2011 19Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Kthutc tnh ca sn phm v nh gi cht lng sn phm
Nghin cu kthut v phng php sn xut
Xc nh cng sut ca my mc thit bv ca dn
Nguyn vt liu u vo
Cshtng
Lao ng
a im thc hin dn
Kthut xy dng cng trnh ca dn
Ni dung phn tch (3)
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March 15, 2011 20Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Trnh tphn tch
Phn tch tnh hnhchnh tr, kinh t,
chnh sch
Dbo sn phm v cc
ngun u vo
Xc nh chi ph
ca dn Xc nh li ch dn
nh gi hiu quu
tLi ch bng tin
Li ch khng tnh bng
tinPhn tch nhiu ch
tiu
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March 15, 2011 21Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Yu tthi gian
Nhn dng li ch v chi ph dn
Gi trng tin theo thi gian
So snh ng tin trong cc thi kkhc nhau
Chn nm cbn
Thi on xem xt nh gi dn
Thi gian l yu tc nh hng ctnh cht quyt nhn dn
- mc tiu,- sthc hin,- chi ph,- li ch,
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March 15, 2011 22Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Nhn dng chi ph v li ch Nguyn l chung
So snh
c vkhng cdn
Nm
Liich
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March 15, 2011 23Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Nguyn l chung
Tnh tt ccc thay i vlich, vchi ph
Tt ccc thay i vli ch,vchiph gn vi mt dn phi ctnh n
Tnh nhng kt qutng thm
Li ch thm hay chi ph thm t
dn phi c tnh, m khngphi tng li ch hay tng chi ph
Loi trcc kt quchm
Cc chi ph chm v li ch chmkhng lm thay i li ch rng.
Loi trcc chi ph cnh,chi ph chung
Cc chi ph chung, chi ph c
nh khng lm bin
i l
i chrng gia cc phng n
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March 15, 2011 24Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Yu tthi gian
Chi ph & Li ch theo thi gian
1 2 t n-1 n
0
Nm
Dng tin ca dn nm t: At = Rt - Ct
Rt Li ch ca dn nm tCt Chi ph dn nm t ( Ct = CVHT + It + Tt )
It , Tt Chi ph u t, thuthu nhp nm t
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March 15, 2011 25Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Yu tthi gian
Ga trng tin theo thi gianGi trca 1 ng
(hm nay)
Gi trca 1 ng
(trong tng lai) u tvo sn xut sinh li
1 ng u thm nay c 2 ng trong
tng lai?
Gi tit kim ly li1 ng gi tit kim hm nay c hn 1
ng trong tng lai?
Cho vay tin ly li1 ng cho vay hm nay c 1,2 ng trong
tng lai?
>
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March 15, 2011 26Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Yu tthi gian
Ga trng tin theo thi gian(2)
P Gi trng tin hin ti,F Gi trng tin tng lai
F = P (1 + r)n
P = F / (1 + r)n
K hiu
(1+r)n = (F/P, r, n) ~ Hstch ly
1/(1+r)n = (P/F, r, n) ~ Hschit khu
P
0
F
0 n
Tch ly
Chit khu
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March 15, 2011 27Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Yu tthi gian
Ga trng tin theo thi gian (3)A Dng tin u hng nm
F = A (1+r)n - 1r
A
(1+r)n - 1
r
F =
(A/F, r, n)
P = A(1+r)n - 1
r(1+r)nA = P
r(1+r)n
(1+r)n-1
(F/A, r, n)
(A/P, r, n)(P/A, r, n)
0 1 2 3
t.n
A1= A2= A3=.. At=..= An=A
F
n0
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March 15, 2011 28Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Ga trng tin theo thi gian (4)
V D:
Mt ngi mua bt ng sn theo phng thc trgp nhsau: trngay50 triu , sau 3 qu cmi qu tr5 triulin tc trong 6 qu. Nu
li sut l 8% qu th gi trhin ti ca bt ng sn ny l bao nhiu?
50 triu
5 triu
03 4 5 6 7 8
P= 50 + 5(P/A,8%,6)*(P/F, 8%,2)=69,816 triu
Hay P= 50+5(F/A,8%,6)(P/F,8%,8)
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March 15, 2011 29Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Ga trng tin theo thi gian (5)
V D:
Mt nhu tti chnh,u t20 triu u nm nay, 5 triusau 3 nm v 10triu 5 nm sau. Nu li sut l 6% nm th sau bao nhiu nm ngi c c
tng stin l 100 triu?
20 triu
5 triu
10 triu
100 triu
03 5
n
P=20 +5(P/F,6%,3)+10(P/F,6%,5)
=31,671triuF=31,671 ( )n06,01 +
n=20 nm
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March 15, 2011 30Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Ga trng tin theo thi gian (6)V D:
Mt ngi vay 500 triu v strntheo phng thc sau: Tru n 15ln theo tng qu, ktcui qu th3. li sut theo qu l 5%. Hi mt ln trl
bao nhiu?500 triu
3 4 5 17
0
A A
?
A= 500(F/P,5%,2)(A/P,5%,15)=53,09 triu
A= 500(F/P,5%,17)(A/F,5%,15)=53,09 triu
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March 15, 2011 31Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Ga trng tin theo thi gian (7)
Mt cng ty qung co hcho vay 10 triu chyu cu khch hng trli hngthng 529.000trong 24 thng. Vy thc thcho vay vi li sut thc hng
nm l bao nhiu?
10= 0,529(P/A,r,24)
(P/A,r,24) = 10/0.529 =18,90359
Tra bng r=2%/thng Rnm= 26,82%
10 triu
0,529 triu 0,529 triu . . . . . . .. .. . . . . .
0
1 2 . . . . 23 24
V D:
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Yu tthi gian
Nm cbn
Phthuc vo chu t Nm bt u thc hin
Sau khnh thnh cng trnh
Nm c chn quy i dng tin ca dn
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March 15, 2011 33Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Khng ng ngha vi thi gian
thc hin dn
L thi gian c xemxt nh gi trong qutrnh phn tch dn
Yu tthi gian
Thi gian dn
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March 15, 2011 34Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Chng 3NH GI HIU QUU T
1. Cc yu cu khi so snh cc phng n
2. Chtiu NPV3. Chtiu IRR
4. Chtiu B/C5. Chtiu TP6. Mi quan hgia cc chtiu
NI DUNG
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Cng mt mi trngu t
Cng cc dliu cc dkin avo tnh tan cc phng n u
t
Cng mt hmc tiuCng cc tiu chun nh gi v cng
nguyn tc ra quyt nh
Cng mt khong thi gianthc hin
Cng vn sdngCc phng n phi a vcng qui
m vn
1. Cc yu cu khi so snh cc phng n
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March 15, 2011 36Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
2. Gi trhin ti thun NPV
Net Present Value
L gi tr quyi tt c thu nhp v chi ph ca d nv thiim hin ti (u k phn tch)
At: Dng tin ca dnMARR: Sut thu li ti thiu chp nhn cn: Thi gian thc hin dn (tnh theo n vnm)
= +=
n
t
t
t
MARR
A
NPV0 )1(
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V D= +
=n
t
t
t
MARR
ANPV
0 )1(
Cho mt dn c dng tin nhsau:
t
At
0 1
-100 110
NPV= -100+110
(1+0.1)
= 0
t
At
0 1
---100 121
NPV= -100+ 121
(1+0.1)
=10
t
At
0 1
--100 105
NPV= -100+105
(1+0.1)
=-4.5
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Gi trhin ti thun NPV (1)
NPV= 0
= +
=n
t
t
t
MARR
ANPV
0 )1(
Phng n c mc li ti thiu (=MARR)
NPV> 0
Phng n t mc li MARR v cn thu
thm mt lng bng gi trNPV
NPV< 0Phng n khng t c ti mc liMARR (ti thiu)
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 39
Gi trhin ti thun NPV (2)
Phng n no c NPVln hn l phng ntt hn
Phng n c NPV lnnht l phng n ttnht
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V D
Cho hai phng n loi trnhau A v B c sliu nhsau:
TTCc chtiu n vtnh P A P B
1 Chi ph u tban u Triu 100 150
2 Doanh thu thun hng nm Triu 50 70
3 Chi ph vn hnh hng nm Triu 22 43
4 Gi trcn li Triu 20 0
5 MARR % 8 8
6 Thi gian thc hin Nm 5 10
Thusut thuthu nhp =0%
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V DXc nh thi gian phn tch ca dn : 10 nm v githit phng n A s
Xc nh dng tin ca cc phng n:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-150
27
0
20
-100
28
-80
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0
NPVA= -100 +28(P/A,8%,10)
-80(P/F,8%,5)+20(P/F,8%,10)
NPVA=+42,69 triu
NPVB= -150 +27(P/A,8%,10)
NPVB=+31,17 triu
NPVA>NPVB Chn PAA
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March 15, 2011 42Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
Nhn xt
Net Present Value
A
B
NPV
r
r*
MARR = r* Chn A hoc BMARR = r* Chn A hoc B
MARR < r* Chn A
MARR > r* Chn B
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 43
Tsut ni hon (1)
Internal Rate of Return - IRR
IRR l li sut m dn tora hng nmIRR cho nh u tbit chiph sdng vn cao nhtm dn c thchp nhnc
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Cng thc
Hay chnh l gi trchit khu NPV = 0
IRR biu din tlthu hi ca mi dn
Nu d n ch c t l hon vn (IRR) l bng i, th cckhon thu nhp t d n ch hon tr phn vngcu tbanu vo dn v tr li.
Mt khc, sut thu li ni ti IRR cn phn nh chi ph s dng vn ti a m nh u t c th chp nhnc.
=
=+=n
t
t
ttIRRCBNPV
0
0)1)((
Tsut ni hon (2)
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Tsut ni hon (3)
Cng thc tnh gn ng
21
1
121 )(NPVNPV
NPViiiIRR
++=
i1: L hschit khu ng vi NPV1 > 0 i2: L hschit khu ng vi NPV2 < 0
ii2
i1
IRRNPV1
NPV2
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nh gi phng n Dn c lp
IRR >MARR chp nhn phng n, phng nng gi
IRR < MARR phng n sbbc b IRR = MARR chp nhn phng n So snh cc phng n loi trnhau Nu chn phng n vi IRRmax th s c thc
li gii khc vi phng php NPV.
Tsut ni hon (3)
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 47
Tsut ni hon (4)Nguyn tc so snh
Phng n u t ln hn ch so snh vi phng n c
u t b hn khi phng n c u t b hn l nggi theo IRR (IRR MARR)
Phng n cu t ln hnc chn khi sut thu lica gia svnu t ln hn sut thu li ti thiu chpnhn c v ngc li phng n u t b hn cchn khi sut thu li ni ti ca gia s vn u t nhhn MARR.
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 48
Ni r mc li sut m d n c th tc.
IRRc bit hu dng khi d n vay vn u t.
Tnh ton phc tp, khi so snh ccphng n c vnu t khc nhau.
Nu c nhiu nghim, kh nh giphng n
Nhn xt
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 49
Tsli ch v chi ph B/C
Benefit-cost (1)
B/C?
L ts gia tng gi tr
hin ti ca thu nhp vtng gi trhin ti ca chiphdn
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 50
Cng thc
=
=
+
+== n
t
t
t
n
t
t
t
iC
iB
PVC
PVB
C
B
0
0
)1(
)1(
Tsli ch v chi ph B/C
Benefit-cost (2)
=
=
+
+
= n
tt
t
n
tt
t
MARR
C
MARR
R
CB
0
0
)1(
)1(/
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 51
Tsli ch v chi ph B/C
Benefit-cost (3) nh gi phng n theo tiu chun B/CCc phng n c lp:B/C >= 1 Chp nhnB/C < 1 Loi b
Cc phng n loi trnhau:nh gi nhchtiu IRR Tiu chun B/C mang tnh tngi B/C c p dng rng ri trong vic phn tch
vnh gi cc dn c qui m khc nhau.
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 52
Tsli ch v chi ph B/C
Benefit-cost (4)K hiu 1
B Thu nhp hin ti hng nm I Vn u t O Chi ph vn hnh M Chi ph bo dng
M)+(O+I
B=B/C
orM)]+(O+[IP
[B]P
=CostTotal
BenefitTotal
=B/C
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 53
Tsli ch v chi ph B/C
Benefit-cost (5)K hiu 2
B Thu nhp hin ti hng nm CRVn u t O Chi ph vn hnh M Chi ph bo dng
M)+(O+CR
B=B/C
orM)+(O+[CRP
[B]P
=CostTotal
BenefitTotal
=B/C
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 54
Tsli ch vn u t
=
=
+
+
=n
tt
t
n
tt
vhtt
MARRI
MARRCR
CB
0
0
)1(
)1()(
/
B/C =
Gi trhin ti ca li ch rng
Gi trhin ti ca chi ph u t
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 55
Phng n ng giB/C 1
nh giTsli ch-chi ph (B/C)
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 56
So snh cc phng n (1)
Vn u tnhnhauPhng ntt hn
B/C cao hn
Tsli ch-chi ph (B/C)
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 57
Vn u tnhnhau
Phng ntt nht
B/C max
Tsli ch-chi ph (B/C)
So snh cc phng n (2)
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 58
Vn u tkhc nhau
B/C cao hn
Khng
chc
Tsli ch-chi ph (B/C)
Phng ntt hn
So snh cc phng n (3)
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 59
Vn u tkhc nhauPhng n
tt nhtB/C max Cha chc
Tsli ch-chi ph (B/C)
So snh cc phng n (4)
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 60
u nhc im Ch r thu nhp trn mi n v vn u
t hocn v chi ph.
Khng cho chng ta bit tng li ch rngnh chtiu NPV.
B/C ph thuc vo vic la chn li sut
chit khu.
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 61
Thi gian hon vn - Tp
Tp?
L thi gian cn thit
thu hi vn u tbanu cho dn
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 62
Phng php thi gian hon vn
Bao gm 2 loi l thi gian hon vn ginn
v thi gian hon vn c chit khu. Thi gian hon vn Tp l khong thi gian k
vng thu hi vn u t ca d n, bng cckhon tch lu vn hng nm.
Hay khong thi gian cn thitthu hi ton
b vnu tbanu ca dn.
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 63
CH
Cho nhu t thyc lc no tin vn
thc s c thu hi. L chtiunh gi hiu qu khngy.
nh gi hiu qu chtiu ny thngikm vi cc chtiu khc.
nh gi mc ri r o ca d n.
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March 15, 2011 Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate 64
Mi quan hgia cc chtiu
Phng n ng gi theo NPV cng ng githeo IRR v B/C
Phng n c chn theo NPV, th cngchn theo IRR v B/C
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Dang Xuan Truong, Ph.D. Candidate
KT THC PHN I
(Mi xem tip phn II)