bài 6lam phat va that nghiep

7/31/2019 Bi 6Lam phat va that nghiep

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LM PHT V THT NGHIP


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1. LM PHT (INFLATION)

1.1 Khi nim v phn loi.a. Cc khi nim. Lm pht (inflation): l tnh trng mc gi

chung ca nn kinh t tng ln trong mtthi gian nht nh.

Mc gi chung (general price): l mc gitrung bnh ca nhiu loi hng ho. Mc giny c o bng ch s gi.

Gim pht (deflation): l tnh trng mc gichung ca nn kinh t gim xung.

Gim lm pht (disinflation): l s st gimca t l lm pht.


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T l lm pht : l ch tiu phn nh t ltng thm hay gim bt ca gi c mtthi im no so vi thi im trc.

b. Cc loi lm pht: Lm pht va phi (moderate inflation):

mc lm pht mt con s, t l lm phtdi 10% nm.

Lm pht phi m (galloping inflation): l loilm pht hai hay ba con s. Siu lm pht (hyper inflation): l loi lm

pht t bn con s tr ln.

1.1 Khi nim v phn loi.


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T l lm pht : l ch tiu phn nh t ltng thm hay gim bt ca gi c mtthi im no so vi thi im trc.

1.2 Phng php tnh v ch s gi dng tnht l lm pht.

T l lmpht thi

im (t)

Ch s gi thi im (t) ch s gi thi im(t-1)

=

ch s gi thi im (t-1)


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Ch s gi (price index): l ch tiu phn nhtc thay i gi mt thi im no so vi thi im lm gc.ch s gi = (t l tng gi sn phm i)*(t

trng sn phm i) Cc loi ch s gi:+ Ch s gi tiu dng (consumer price index)

CPI:phn nh tc thay i gi cc mthng tiu dng chnh, l: thc phm,

qun o, nh , cht t, vn ti v y t.

1.2 Phng php tnh v ch sgi dng tnh t l lm pht.


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Ch s gi ny c tnh theo gi bn l. Trng s lt trng chi tiu ca h gia nh v sn phm so vitng chi tiu, c ly nm lm gc.CPI c tnh nh sau:

1.2 Phng php v ch sgi dng tnh tl lm pht.

CPI =Pit x Qi0

Pi0 x Qi0

Trong :

Qi0 : l lng hng ho i nm lm gc.Pi

o: gi ca hng ho i nm lm gc.

Pit : gi hng ho i nm t.


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+ Ch s gi sn xut (Producer Price Index) PPI: l chs gi bn bun (c tnh theo gi bn ln u).Nhm hng ho chnh dng tnh l: lng thcthc phm, cc sn phm thuc ngnh ch to v

khai khong. Trng s l doanh s ca tng loi hngho trong tng doanh s cc loi hng ho c dng tnh.

Cch tnh PPI: tng t CPI.


PPI =Pit x Qi0

Pi0 x Qi0


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+ Ch s gim pht GDP hay ch s iu chnhGDP ( GDP deflator) hay ch s gi ton b(overall price index): l ch s gi cho tonb GDP (bao gm tt c cc hng ho v

dch v trong GDP).y l ch s gi dng iu chnh GDPdanh ngha v GDP thc.

GDPdef=GDPdanhngha

GDPthc

Pit x Qit

Pi0 x Qit=


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1.3 Nguyn nhn lm pht

Lm pht do cu ko (demand - pullinflation): xy ra khi tng cu tng vt qukh nng sn xut ca nn kinh t- mc snlng tim nng.

ASAD

AD

QYp

P

Y1

P2

P1

iu g lm cho tngcu tng ln?

Bn cht ca lmpht do cu ko lg?


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Lm pht do chi ph y (cost pushinflation): tnh trng lm pht xy ra do chiph sn xut tng ln hoc nng lc sn xutst gim.

ASAS

AD

QYp

P

Y1

P2

P1

iu g lm chi phsn xut tng ln?Khi tng cung s

nh th no?


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ASASAD

QYp

P

Y1

P2

P1

Yp

iu g lm nng lc sn xut st gim?Khi tng cung s nh th no?

Lm pht do chi ph y (cost pushinflation).


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1.4 Tc ng ca lm pht

Tc ng i vi sn lng v cng n viclm.

Tc ng i vi phn phi li thu nhp.

+ i vi ngi vay v ngi cho vay.+ Gia ngi hng lng v ngi tr lng.+ Gia chnh ph v dn chng. i vi c cu kinh t v hiu qu kinh t.


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1.5 Cc gii php i vi lm pht.

C ba cch x l, i ph vi lm pht:- Mt l, thi hnh nhng chnh sch cng rng

kim ch lm pht.-

Hai l, thay i lut l v cc th ch lmcho lm pht kh xut hin.- Ba l, hc cch sng chung vi lm pht.


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2. THT NGHIP

2.1 Mt s khi nim. Tht nghip: l nhng ngi trong tui

lao ng qui nh, c kh nng lao ng vang tm vic nhng cha c vic lm.

Lc lng lao ng: bao gm nhng ngiang lm vicv nhng ngi tht nghip.


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Nguyn nhn Lm pht? (thanh nin, 6/10/07) Hin c nhiu kin khc nhau.

C kin cho rng gi tng ch yu l do gi th giitng. ng l thng 9 nm nay so vi cng k nmtrc, gi xut khu tng (nh ht tiu tng103,8%, c ph tng 28,9%, go tng 16,6%, htiu tng 4,2%, ch tng 1,9%,...); gi nhp khutng (nh la m tng 45%, phi thp tng 27,7%,

st thp tng 16,1%, cht do tng 10,9%, phnbn tng 9,7%, si dt tng 9,4%, giy tng 6,4%,bng tng 3,6%, xng du tng 1,3%,...). Khi gith gii tng th chi ph u vo tng, lm tng gibn u ra. Cc chuyn gia coi lm pht do nguyn

nhn chi ph tng l "lm pht chi ph y". Tuy nhin, nu coi yu t gi th gii l ch yu l

hon ton khng ng, bi nu nh vy th ti saolm pht cc nc cng phi cao, nhng thc t chtrn di 3%; Nht Bn ngho nguyn vt liu, ch

yu phi nhp khu, nhng my nm nay lmht n nh bn


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Nguyn nhn Lm pht? (thanh nin, 6/10/07) Hin c nhiu kin khc nhau.

C kin cho rng gi tng ch yu dongun hng, nht l lng thc, thc phmgp thin tai, dch bnh nn cung khngp ng cu, do gi tng. Cc chuyngia gi lm pht do cu tng hn cung llm pht do "cu ko".

Tuy nhin, l ni v lng thc, thcphm, cn xt ton b nn kinh t, GDP 9thng nm nay tng 8,2%, nhp siu ln

n trn 7,6 t USD, tng trn 4,2 t USD -nhng con s rt ln v cha tng c.

C kin cn cho rng gi tng l do nhpsiu tng. Ni nh th l ni ngc: tng

cung m li lm cho gi tng?


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Nguyn nhn ch yu l do tin t. Mt lng tin ln c a ra lu thng

trong 6 thng u nm qua mua USD

nhm tng d tr quc t, nhm trnh chong ni t ln gi v khuyn khch xutkhu, hn ch nhp siu.

Mt lng tin khng nh a ra u tchng khon trc y, tuy c thu hi

theo Ch th 03 ca Ngn hng Nh nc,nhng ch yu i vi cc ngn hng thngmi c phn c tng d n tn dng nh vcn nhiu khon cha n k thu hi, cncc ngn hng thng mi c tng d n tn

dng ln nhng t l cho vay chng khoncn thp hn t l khng ch, nay th trngchng khon nng ln l c hi cho cc ngnhng ny.

Lng tin cn lu thng quay v ngnhng chm hn do li sut huy ng gim.


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D on gi tiu dng c nm nay stng xp x 9%, khng th tng n 2ch s, nhng cao hn tc tng

trng kinh t l gn nh chc chn.(!)


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2.1 Mt s khi nim.

Cc loi tht nghip:

- Phn loi theo nguyn nhn gy ra thtnghip

+ Tht nghip c hc (frictionalunemployment).

+ Tht nghip c cu (structuralunemployment).

+ Tht nghip t nhin (naturalunemployment) Un Un = Tht nghip c hc

+ tht nghip c cu+ Tht nghip chu k (cyclical

unemployment): tht nghip c to ra bitnh trng suy thoi ca nn kinh t (tht

nghip theo l thuyt Keynes).


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2.1 Mt s khi nim.

Cc loi tht nghip:- Phn loi theo cung v cu lao ng.+ Tht nghip t nguyn (voluntary

unemployment)

+ Tht nghip khng t nguyn (involuntaryunemployment)


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2.2 o lng tht nghip

T l tht nghip :

T l tht

nghip (%) =

S ngi tht nghip

x100%

Lc lng lao ng

nh lut Okun:

Yp Yt 100 %Ut = Un + ------------- x -----

Yp 2


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Lc lng lao ng ca Vit Nam

Lc lng lao ng: 53 triu, ch c 20% cqua o to ngh, hin ti c 10 triu ngikhng c vic lm.

Lao ng VN: dn tr thp, tay ngh km. Mc tiu n nm 2010: 270 trng trung cp

ngh, 90 trng cao ng ngh, 750 TT dyngh cc cp qun huyn: dy ngh cho 1,5-2triu ngi/nm. Gii quyt vic lm cho 6-6,4triu L, tc l 1,52-1,6 triu L/nm, a320.000L XK.(Hi ngh trin khai k hoch dy ngh, vic lm v xut

khu lao ng ti H Ni (10-11/5/2007)


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2.3 Tc ng ca tht nghip v cc bin phpgim t l tht nghip

a. Tc ng ca tht nghip: Tc ng kinh t. Tc ng x hi.

+ i vi c nhn v gia nh ngi th nghip.+ i vi x hi.


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2.3 Tc ng ca tht nghip v cc bin phpgim t l tht nghip

b. Cc bin php gim t l tht nghip: i vi tht nghip chu k. i vi tht nghip t nhin.

+ Ci thin dch v th trng lao ng.+ Tng cng s hot ng ca cc c s o to.+ To thun li cho vic di chuyn a im c tr.+ To vic lm cho ngi khuyt tt.+ Ci to nng nghip, tng cng u t cho khu

vc nng nghip, nng thn.

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