backfire: republican rhetoric in 2014 will be an albatross for 2016

8102019 Backfire Republican Rhetoric in 2014 Will Be an Albatross for 2016

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullbackfire-republican-rhetoric-in-2014-will-be-an-albatross-for-2016 115

1 Center for American Progress Action Fund | Backfire Republican Rhetoric in 2014 Will Be an Albatross for 2016

Backfire

Republican Rhetoric in 2014 Will Be an Albatross for 2016

By Neera Tanden Gov Ted Strickland Arkadi Gerney and Tiffany Germain

November 3 2014

Te close races o he 2014 elecion are aking place in a variey o saes whose

demographic makeup is very differen han ha o he naional elecorae 2014

voers are expeced o be more whie more rural and more conservaive han hose

in 2016 While polls predic a low urnou and more conservaive elecorae severalraces are much closer han hey were in he 2010 miderms and conrol o he Senae

may be deermined very lae on Elecion Day991252or perhaps no or monhs as run-off

elecions are waged

In order o appeal o a more conservaive elecorae in 2014 Republicans have couned

on he srucural advanages in paricipaion paterns or he miderm elecions and dou-

bled down on heir ar-righ posiions on immigraion climae change voing resric-

ions and womenrsquos economic and healh issues W hile hese posiions may help drive

he inensiy o he radiional conservaive base in he shor erm many o he acions

and messages risk alienaing he rising American elecorae o 2016 and beyond991252Lainos Millennials Arican Americans and single women Republican successes in

2014 will be an albaross or 2016




Immigration

Screenshot of Senate candidate Tom Cottonrsquos ad ldquo Southern Borderrdquo1

While Republicans have radiionally relied on illegal immigraion o rally he conser-

vaive base his cycle has seen some o he mos exreme ani-immigraion messaging

rom Republican candidaes and allied groups During he summer Arkansas Senae

candidae om Coton (R) ran a series o ani-immigraion ads including one iled

ldquoSouhern Borderrdquo in a six-figure buy2 In he ad a voiceover says ldquoOur souhern border

chaos and crime Washingon made he mess Sen Mark Pryor voed or amnesy

Ciizenship or illegals Pryor voed agains a border ence hree imesrdquo3 Te ad bases

mos o is criicism on Sen Pryorrsquos (D) voe or an immigraion reorm bill calling

i ldquoamnesyrdquo which many ac-checkers poined ou was inaccurae4

New EnglandRepublican Scot Brown employed a similar acic running hree ads on border securiy

in his ques or a New Hampshire Senae sea one warning ha a porous border leaves

he Unied Saes vulnerable o he Ebola virus5

Tese ads are par o a rend by Republicans o use immigraion ears as a wedge linking

immigraion o he publicrsquos concerns on issues such as he Islamic Sae o Iraq and

al-Sham or ISIS and Ebola Georgia GOP Senae candidae David Perdue ran an ad

iled ldquoSecure Our Bordersrdquo which atemps o ie his Democraic opponen Michelle

Nunnrsquos posiion or comprehensive immigraion reorm o ailing o proec he Unied

Saes rom erroriss6 ldquoShersquos or amnesy while errorism expers say our border

breakdown could provide an enry or groups like ISISrdquo he voiceover says7 Perduersquos

ad which includes images rom ISIS videos cies a exas Deparmen o Public Saey

bullein ha saes ldquomilians are expressing an increased ineres in he noion ha hey

could clandesinely infilrae he souhwes border o US or error atackrdquo8 Te bullein

examines ldquosocial chaterrdquo which amouned o jus 32 social media poss ha exas law

enorcemen laer acknowledged could no be verified9 PoliiFac gave he ad a ldquomosly




alserdquo raing10 and oher ac-checkers have had similar responses o claims o ISIS plans

o infilrae hrough he US-Mexico border11 Te Naional Republican Congressional

Commitee or NRCC ran atack ads agains a House Democra rom Arizona claiming

ha ldquoEvil orces around he world wan o harm Americans every day Teir enry ino

our counry Trough Arizonarsquos back yardrdquo12 Ye naional securiy officials said hey see

ldquono specific inelligence or evidence o sugges a presen ha [ISIS] is atemping o

infilrae his counry hrough our souhern borderrdquo13

In deploying hese scare acics on immigraion Republican candidaes and allied

groups may be puting shor-erm gains ahead o long-erm rends In an Ocober 2014

Laino Decisions poll 51 percen o Laino voers said immigraion reorm was he mos

imporan issue hey hough he presiden and Congress should address14

Sudies show ha Lainos are ar less likely o voe in nonpresidenial years15 In ac

Laino urnou has been more han 40 percen higher in presidenial elecions compared

o miderm elecions16 Wharsquos more Laino voers play a disproporionaely small role

in he yearrsquos mos compeiive races While Lainos make up 11 percen o all eligible2014 voers naionwide hey consis o jus 47 percen o eligible voers in he eigh

saes wih he closes Senae races17 Te only close race in which Lainos make up a

significan porion o he elecorae is he Colorado Senae race991252and Republicans have

seered clear o he issue o immigraion reorm in he sae18 Finally he share and raw

number o eligible voers who are Laino coninues o grow In 2016 more han 27

million Lainos will be eligible o voe 4 million more han in 201219

FIGURE 1

The number of eligible Latino voters is growing rapidly

Eligible Latino voters in millions

Note Number of voters for 2014 and 2016 are projected

Source For data from 2002 to 2014 see National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Education Fund Profile of the Latino

Population and Latino Electorate Election 2014 (2014) available at httpwwwnaleoorgdownloadsNALEO-LatinoPopulation-2014-5pdf

For 2016 data see Patrick Oakford and Vanessa Caacuterdenas The Growth of the Latino Electorate in Key States February 28 2013 available at

httpwwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

152002

156

2004

161

2006

173

2008

195

2010

213

2012

233

2014

255

2016

277

20

25

30




In an inerview wih Te New York imes conservaive sraegis Ralph Reed agreed ha

Republicans are no currenly ocused on a long-erm sraegy on immigraion ldquoTere is

a sense in which I hink he overwhelming desire o gain conrol o he Senae has kind

o so fixaed he pary rsquos sraegic brain rus ha rying o ge a hearing on long-erm

sraegic issues doesnrsquo seem o be possible a he momenrdquo Reed said20

Climate change

Screenshot of Crossroads GPS ad ldquoGood Startrdquo21

Climae change and predicing he economic and climaological effecs o paricular

energy policies has been an issue in many key races in 2014 Republicans and heir alliescenered heir early campaign atacks on predicions o dire economic consequences

associaed wih he Obama adminisraionrsquos proposed carbon-polluion sandards

Announced in June hese new sandards are a cornersone o Presiden Barack Obamarsquos

Climae Acion Plan22

For example Crossroads GPS a dark-money group advised by Republican sraegis

Karl Rove launched wo ad campaigns agains Sen Mark Udall (D-CO) or his sup-

por o he presidenrsquos plan o reduce carbon polluion23 One ad called ldquoGood Sarrdquo

accused Sen Udall o waning o raise elecriciy prices by ldquoas much as $17 billionrdquo

ciing a sudy released by he US Chamber o Commerce ha was an atack on he US

Environmenal Proecion Agency or EPA rules24 Te Chamber o Commercersquos flawed

analysis was oued by leading Republicans and heir allies including House Speaker

John Boehner (R-OH) Rep Ed Whifield (R-KY) Sen David Viter (R-LA) and he

Republican Naional Commitee o name a ew25 However shorly afer is release a

Washington Post ac check horoughly debunked he analysis giving i a raing o ldquoFour




Pinocchiosrdquo he wors possible raing26 Climae energy and environmenal ads have

surged in 2014 wih more han 125000 spos running on he Senae side alone as o

mid-Ocober991252making i he hird mos-menioned issue in hose races behind healh

care and jobs27 While environmenal groups have promised o spend an unprecedened

$85 million28 Kanar MediaCMAG ad-racking daa colleced by he Alas Projec

ound ha Republicans have already spen more han $127 million on energy and envi-

ronmenal spos his cycle29 Earlier his year he billionaire Koch brohers said heirsecreive nework planned o spend $300 million his cycle which included an ani-en-

vironmen effor aimed a EPA regulaions30

Ads and saemens rom Republican candidaes and allied groups express near cer-

ainy abou heir abiliy o predic he economic consequences o he carbon-polluion

sandards ha are ye o be implemened Bu candidaes have expressed a remarkably

consisen message o ignorance concerning he causes o climae change Te new

ani-science climae change denial acic991252insead o fla ou climae science denial

which is hugely unpopular among he vas majoriy o Americans31991252is more suble

Over and over Republicans have been using a variaion o he phrase ldquoIrsquom no a scien-isrdquo Some o he mos prominen poliicians who have used his new acic are Senae

Minoriy Leader Mich McConnell (R-KY) House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH)

Sen Marco Rubio (R-FL) Florida Gov Rick Scot (R) Louisiana Gov Bobby Jindal

(R) and Iowa Senae candidae Joni Erns (R)32

Sen McConnell said ldquowe can debae his oreverrdquo in response o Te Cincinnati Enquirer

on wheher he agrees wih he 97 percen o scieniss who say climae change is

occurring33 ldquoIrsquom no a scienis Irsquom ineresed in proecing Kenuckyrsquos economyrdquo he

said34 During a debae Iowa Senae candidae Joni Erns said ldquoI donrsquo know he science

behind climae change I canrsquo say one way or anoher wha is he direc impac wheherirsquos man-made or nordquo35 Erns similar o he ohers who have used his response acively

opposes any policy proposal o figh climae change In ac Erns has even advocaed

or compleely eliminaing he EPA a posiion she repeaedly deends36

Te chorus o doub abou climae change ha Republican candidaes have expressed

his year may pu hem a risk wih a rising group in he 2016 elecorae young voers

While all American voers are increasingly likely o suppor a candidae who srongly

suppors acion on climae change37 he suppor is even higher among young peo-

ple A biparisan poll ound ha 80 percen o voers under age 35 suppor Presiden

Obama aking acion o address climae change38 Even among young Republican voers

more han hal99125252 percen991252would be less likely o voe or someone who opposed

his climae acion39 In anoher poll by Harsad Sraegic Research Inc 76 percen o




Millennials said he governmen should be more involved in proecing he environmen

rom polluion ranking i he highes prioriy or governmen involvemen in he ldquosocial

and regulaory issuesrdquo caegory o he poll40

Presidenial elecion years bring a dramaic increase in urnou among young voers

In 2010 urnou among people ages 18 o 29 dropped in hal o 24 percen rom 51

percen in he 2008 presidenial elecion41 In 2012 voer urnou among youh jumped back o 45 percen42 In addiion o urning ou a higher raes young voers will also

consiue a bigger share o he elecorae in 2016 A Cener or American Progress

analysis on Millennials defined as hose born beween 1978 and 200043 esimaes ha

he populaion o eligible Millennial voers will increase by 4 million people per year

hrough 201844 By he reporrsquos projecions here will be 81 million eligible Millennial

voers in 2016 and hey are expeced o make up 33 percen o all voers45

FIGURE 2

Millenials are becoming an increasingly important electoral demographic

Share of eligible voters that are Millennials

Note Millennials are defined as those born between 1978 and 2000

Source David Madland and Ruy Teixeira N ew Progressive America The Millenial Generation (2009) available at httpcdnamericanprogressorg wp-contentuploadsissues200905pdfmillennial_generationpdf

2008 2012 2016

23 29 36




Voting rights

Screenshot of New Mexico Republican Secretary of State candidate Dianna Duranrsquos voter ID ad46

Soking ears abou voer raud has been par and parcel o many Republican campaigns

around he counry in recen elecion cycles and in his cycle991252rom claims ha illegal

immigrans will seal American voes o oulandish charges o regisering dogs o voe47

In New Mexicorsquos secreary o sae race Republican Dianna Duran ran a V ad and sen

mailers atacking her opponen Maggie oulouse Oliver or no supporing sric voer

ID laws Te ad atacks oulouse Oliver or ignoring voer raud and reerences a 2012

sory abou a man who regisered his dog o voe48 I was laer revealed ha he man was

married o a saffer ha was working or Republican Heaher Wilson who was running

or Senae a he ime49

Afer his name was revealed he issued an apology saying ldquoImade a misake and I wan o apologize o Bernalillo Couny clerk Maggie oulouse

Oliver [and] my wie who was no aware o my acions and he publicrdquo he said ldquoI will

ake ull responsibiliy or my acionsrdquo50

Oher Republican candidaes have echoed a variey o voer raud claims In deending

his proo-o-ciizenship requiremen or regisering o voe Kansas Secreary o Sae

Kris Kobach said ldquoevery ime an alien voes i cancels ou he voe o a Unied Saes ci-

izenrdquo51 In Iowa he GOP candidae or secreary o saersquos campaign has used hreas o

voer raud as a undraising acic sending ou emails o supporers accusing Democras

o rigging he 2008 Minnesoa Senae race wih he power o he secreary o saersquos

office52 Te email urges supporers o ldquoMake sure he inegriy o Iowa elecions never

alerrdquo by voing or Republican Paul Pae53




Te realiy as numerous sudies have proven is ha claims o voer raud are no

suppored by he acs In a comprehensive review o he problem he Brennan Cener

or Jusice concluded ha allegaions o widespread voer raud ldquoofen prove grealy

exaggeraedrdquo54 An analysis o more han 2000 cases o alleged elecion raud rom 2000

hrough 2012 ound ldquoin-person voer impersonaion hellip was virually nonexisenrdquo

according o Te Washington Post 55 In a recen judicial opinion regarding Wisconsinrsquos

new voer ID law US Circui Judge Richard Posner concluded ha ldquovoer-imperson-aion raud is essenially nonexisen in Wisconsinrdquo and asserions ha i exiss are ldquoa

mere fig lea or effors o disenranchise voersrdquo56

Te heaed campaign rheoric has also been mached wih a movemen in policy Since

he Supreme Cour weakened he Voing Righs Ac in las yearrsquos Shelby County v Holder

ruling57 Republican legislaures and secrearies o sae across he counry have aken

draconian seps o limi access o voing including implemening voer ID laws limiing

early voing and manipulaing he ballo and regisraion process According o a repor

rom he Brennan Cener or Jusice ldquoa leas 83 resricive bills were inroduced in 29

saes whose legislaures have had floor aciviy in 2014rdquo58

Since he las miderm elec-ion new voing resricions are slaed o be in place in 21 saes wih 14 o hose saes

implemening new voer laws or he firs ime59 Te vas majoriy o hese laws were

passed in saes led by Republican governors and Republican-conrolled sae legisla-

ures60 Proponens o he voing laws claim hey passed hese new resricions o proec

he inegriy o he voing process bu he resul has been an alienaion o communiies

o color paricularly Arican Americans Research shows ha Arican Americans991252who

radiionally suppor Democraic candidaes991252are 18 imes more likely han whie

voers o lack an accepable ID needed o cas a voe in saes wih voer ID laws61

Moreover a higher percenage o Arican American voers use early voing han anyoher demographic a mehod ha has been curailed in many Republican-conrolled

saes62 Wharsquos worse in some cases Republican poliicians who have soked

unounded elecion raud ears are also he same people adminisering he elecion In

Georgia or example Secreary o Sae Brian Kemp has been accused o holding ono

40000 voer regisraion orms63 ldquoTe Democras are working hardrdquo Kemp said ldquoand

all hese sories abou hem you know regisering all hese minoriy voers ha are ou

here and ohers ha are siting on he sidelines and i hey can do ha hey can win

hese elecions in Novemberrdquo64

Alienaing Arican American voers will coninue o hur Republicans as he commu-

niyrsquos share o he elecorae coninues o grow In Ohio where voer suppression laws

ha were in place in 2012 included limiing voing o weekdays exi polls ound ha

he laws were ldquoseen by Arican Americans as effors o keep hem rom voing sirring

a proound backlash on Elecion Dayrdquo according o Te Washington Post 65 From 2000

o 2012 he voing eligible populaion o Arican Americans grew by 42 million66 And




while Arican American voer urnou during miderm elecions ends o drop signifi-

canly i is playing a bigger and bigger role in presidenial years In 2004 111 percen

o voers were Arican American in 2012 ha number was 134 percen67 In ac a

sudy o he Census Bureaursquos elecion survey ound ha minoriy urnou deermined

he 2012 elecion and or he firs ime in hisory Arican American voer urnou raes

exceeded hose o whies in 201268

2004

111

2006 2008

123

2010

116

2012

134

2014

11

2016

FIGURE 3

African Americans make up an increasing share of the electorate in

presidential election years

Their participation falls in midterm election years

Note Electorate refers to the number of voting-age citizens who reported casting ballots Share of electorate for 2014 is projected

Source Andra Gillespie and Tyson King-Meadows Black Turnout amp The 2014 Midterms (Washington Joint Center for Political and Economic

Studies 2014) available at httpjointcenterorgsitesdefaultfilesJoint20Center20201420Black20Turnout2010-29-14_0pdf

10

11

12

13

14

103

In recen elecions Republicans have done an excepionally poor job o atracing Arican American voers A cynical view may be ha Republicans have more o gain in

2014 rom deerring Arican Americans rom voing han by appealing o hem or voes

Perhaps such a raionale even exends o 2016 Bu in he long erm his cold calculaion

would seem o diminish he paryrsquos elecoral opporuniies991252and is moral sanding991252as

some Republicans such as Sen Rand Paul (R-KY) have argued69




Womenrsquos issues

Screenshot of the College Republican National Committeersquos ldquoSay Yes to the Candidaterdquo ad70

Te College Republican Naional Commitee or CRNC creaed a series o seven ldquoSay

Yes o he Candidaerdquo ads modeled afer he popular LC series ldquoSay Yes o he Dressrdquo

in an atemp o arge young women voers Te ad campaign released in early Ocober

and eaures young women shopping or he perec wedding dress and alling in love

wih he ldquoRepublicanrdquo design while mom preers a dowdy ldquoDemocraicrdquo dress Te ads

close wih he young bride-o-be ollowing her hear and saying yes o he ldquoRepublicanrdquo

dress CRNC Chairman Alex Smih argues he ads are an atemp o make he GOP

seem ldquoculurally relevanrdquo bu he ads have been widely criicized71 ime called he ad

ldquohe mos sexis Republican ad o he yearrdquo72

while Elle called i an ldquoatemp a brain- washingrdquo Elle coninued ldquohere are words happening and candidaesrsquo names flashing

in ron o your ace bu yoursquore waching someone ry on wedding dresses while her

bridesmaids and moher emoe I doesnrsquo quie add uprdquo73

Te ldquoSay Yes o he Candidaerdquo series is jus one example o Republicansrsquo ham-handed

effors o win over women voers wih syle while ignoring posiions ha drive such

voers away on subsance Republicans oppose equal pay or equal work74 Republicans

wan o repeal he Affordable Care Ac which has inroduced numerous consumer

proecions or women75 and consisenly receives higher suppor among women76 And

while nearly wo-hirds o minimum-wage workers are women Republicans do no

suppor an increase in he minimum wage77 An ad by Americans or Shared Prosperiy

eaures a young woman comparing Presiden Obama o an abusive boyriend and

eaures he line ldquohe hinks he only hing I care abou is ree birh conrolrdquo78 insinuaing

ha women are single-issue voers Some Republican candidaes such as Rep Cory

Gardner in Colorado and Tom illis in Norh Carolina have ried a similar acic o




appeal o women Boh have plaorms ha promise over-he-couner birh conrol991252a

move ha atemps o hide heir exreme record on womenrsquos healh including previous

suppor o he personhood amendmen a measure ha would ban aborion and could

even ban cerain mehods o birh conrol79 I is also an empy gesure as heir plan

would esablish a $600 annual ax on women by orcing hem o pay ou o pocke or

somehing offered o hem a no cos under he Affordable Care Ac which Republicans

wan o repeal80

Te GOPrsquos decision o arge women voers wih his messaging is unlikely o be

overwhelmingly advanageous in 2014 and i risks huring hem in he upcoming

presidenial elecion Unmarried women he cohor ha Republicans have he mos

rouble atracing are more likely o skip voing in miderm elecions Beween 2008

and 2010 he paricipaion o unmarried women ell by 20 poins wih similar drop-off

raes expeced beween 2012 and 201481 Bu in presidenial elecion years unmarried

women have had a huge impac In 2012 Presiden Obama carried his group by 36

percenage poins winning he overall womenrsquos voe because o his bloc82 And heir

poliical power is growing Since 2000 hey have made up an increasing share o heoverall elecorae in presidenial years and are no expeced o slow down in 201683

FIGURE 4

Unmarried women make up an increasing share of the electorate in




Source Celinda Lake and Cornelia Treptow The Rising American Electorate and the 2012 Presidential Election (Washington The Voter

Participation Center 2014) available at httpwwwvoterparticipationorgwp-contentuploads201406VPC-post-election-report-Finalpdf

18

20

22

24

2002

199

2000

211

2004

222

2006

206

2008

232

2010

212

2012

24

2014

22

2016

As he marriage rae declines single women will make up a larger percenage o he

elecorae84 As NPR recenly noed hey are ldquono a consiuency harsquos in play Teyrsquore

exremely reliable Democraic supporersrdquo85 ldquoYou have a group harsquos growing in size

and becoming more poliically concenraed in erms o he Democrasrdquo said om W

Smih direcor o he General Social Survey a he Naional Opinion Research Cener o

he Universiy o Chicago86




Conclusion

Raher han rying o broaden heir base and appeal o a growing and changing elecor-

ae Republican candidaes and allied groups have doubled down on narrow unpopular

posiions a he expense o heir long-erm success Te demographic makeup o he

Unied Saes is shifing o include more o he very voers whom he Republicans

have alienaed during his cycle Te share o voes cas by whie non-Hispanic voersdropped rom 77 percen in 2010 o 72 percen in 201287 While ha share may rise

again in 2014 he 2016 elecion will likely be he firs in American hisory in which

ewer han 7 in 10 voers are non-Hispanic whies Immigraion climae change voing

righs and womenrsquos economic and healh issues have proven o be persuasive issues and

as Republican candidaes and groups look o 2016 hey may have o hope or a case o

collecive amnesia o erase he memories o heir 2014 posiions

Neera anden is the Counselor to the Center for American Progress Action Fund and the

President of the Center for American Progress Former Gov ed Strickland (D-OH) is the

President of the Center for American Progress Action Fund Arkadi Gerney is the SeniorVice President of Campaigns and Strategies for the Action Fund iffany Germain is the

Research Manager for the TinkProgress War Room at the Action Fund




Endnotes

1 Tom Cotton ldquoSouthern Borderrdquo YouTube August 4 2014available at httpswwwyoutubecomwatchv=K1l4jgRDv-co

2 Ibid Tom Cotton ldquoObama-Pryor Amnesty Planrdquo YouTubeAugust 20 2014 available at httpswwwyoutubecomwatchv=RbsJoRiwZaA Tom Cotton ldquoWorked Hardrdquo You- Tube September 4 2014 available at httpswwwyoutube

comwatchv=9wsn8k6hW94 FactCheckorg ldquoCherry-pick-ing Pryor on Border Securityrdquo August 6 2014 available athttpwwwfactcheckorg201408cherry-picking-pry-or-on-border-security

3 Cotton ldquoSouthern Borderrdquo

4 FactCheckorg ldquoCherry-picking Pryor on Border SecurityrdquoApril Hunt ldquoPerdue misses mark on amnesty allegationrdquoPolitiFact Georgia October 7 2014 available at httpwwwpolitifactcomgeorgiastatements2014oct07david-per-dueperdue-misses-mark-amnesty-allegation

5 Sabrina Siddiqui ldquoScott Brown Says Obama Isnrsquot The OnlyOne To Blame For Border Crisisrdquo The Huffington PostOctober 9 2014 available at httpwwwhuffingtonpostcom20141009scott-brown-border-security_n_5961124html Greg Sargent ldquoScott Brown Anyone with Ebola canlsquowalk acrossrsquo our lsquoporousrsquo borderrdquo The Washington Post October 14 2014 available at httpwwwwashingtonpost

comblogsplum-linewp20141014scott-brown-anyone-with-ebola-can-walk-across-our-porous-border

6 David Perdue ldquoSecure Our Borderrdquo YouTube September 172014 available at httpswwwyoutubecomwatchv=5Bt-6DcMJjE4

7 Ibid

8 Jana Winter ldquoOnline posts show ISIS eyeing Mexican bordersays law enforcement bulletinrdquo Fox News August 29 2014available at httpwwwfoxnewscomus20140829online-posts-show-isis-eyeing-mexican-border-says-law-enforcment-bulletin

9 Glenn Kessler ldquoTom Cottonrsquos bogus claim that the IslamicState collaborates with Mexican drug cartelsrdquo The Wash-ington Post October 9 2014 available at httpwwwwashingtonpostcomblogsfact-checkerwp20141009tom-cottons-bogus-claim-that-islamic-state-collobo-

rates-with-mexican-drug-cartels

10 Hunt ldquoPerdue misses mark on amnesty all egationrdquo

11 Kessler ldquoTom Cottonrsquos bogus claim that the Islamic Statecollaborates with Mexican drug cartelsrdquo

12 NRCC IE ldquoPelosi Firstrdquo YouTube October 7 2014 available athttpswwwyoutubecomwatchv=T8MY7KPVtnY

13 Zeke J Miller and Alex Rogers ldquoGOP Ad Claims ISIS Plot toAttack US Via lsquoArizonarsquos Backyardrsquordquo Time October 7 2014available at httptimecom3478254isis-nrcc-border-plot-gop-2014

14 Latino Decisions Poll ldquoAmericarsquos VoiceLatino DecisionsPre-election National Sur veyrdquo October 17 2014 availableat httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblogwp-contentup-loads201410AV-National-Toplinespdf

15 Jens Manuel Krogstad ldquoHispanics punch below their

weight in midterm electionsrdquo Pew Research Center April2 2014 available at httpwwwpewresearchorgfact-tank20140402hispanics-punch-below-their-weight-in-midterm-elections

16 National Association of Latino Elected and AppointedOfficials Education Fund ldquoProfile of the Latino Populationand Latino Electorate Election 2014rdquo (2014) available athttpwwwnaleoorgdownloadsNALEO-LatinoPopula-tion-2014-5pdf

17 Mark Hugo Lopez and others ldquoLatino Voters and the 2014Midterm Electionsrdquo Pew Research Center October 16 2014available at httpwwwpewhispanicorg20141016lati-no-voters-and-the-2014-midterm-elections

18 Jeremy W Peters ldquoIn Raising Immigration GOP RisksBacklash After ElectionrdquoThe New York Times October 202014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20141021usin-raising-immigration-gop-risks-blowback-after-electionhtml

19 Patrick Oakford and Vanessa Caacuterdenas ldquoThe Growth ofthe Latino Electorate in Key Statesrdquo Center for AmericanProgress February 28 2013 available at httpwwwamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

20 Peters ldquoIn Raising Immigration GOP Risks Backlash AfterElectionrdquo

21 Crossroads GPS ldquoGood Startrdquo YouTube July 8 2014available at httpswwwyoutubecomwatchv=yeDx1M-V6QZUampfeature=youtube

22 Tim McConnell ldquoObamarsquos New Plan to Fight Climate ChangeIs a Really Big Dealrdquo Mother Jones May 30 2014 availableat httpw wwmotherjonescomenvironment201405

obama-carbon-rules-coal-plants-climate-epa-climate-plan-explainer

23 Crossroads GPS ldquoGood Startrdquo Crossroads GPS ldquoEnoughrdquoYouTube June 25 2014 available at httpswwwyoutubecomwatchv=njv9zBzAko4

24 Crossroads GPS ldquoGood Startrdquo

25 Glenn Kessler ldquoGOP lawmakers rush to cite study todiscredit new EPA rule but study assumed EPA rule wouldbe tougherrdquo The Washington Post blog Fact Checker June 32014 available at httpwwwwashingtonpostcomblogsfact-checkerwp20140603gop-lawmakers-rush-to-cite-study-to-discredit-new-epa-rule-but-study-assumed-epa-rule-would-be-tougher

26 Ibid

27 Coral Davenport and Ashley Parker ldquoEnvironment is

Grabbing Big Role in Ads for Campaignsrdquo The New YorkTimes October 21 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20141022uspoliticsenvironmental-issues-be-come-a-force-in-political-advertisinghtml

28 Chris Mooney ldquoEnvironmental groups are spending anunprecedented $85 million in the 2014 electionsrdquoTheWashington Post Wonkblog October 27 2014 availableat httpwwwwashingtonpostcomblogswonkblogwp20141027environmental-groups-are-spend-ing-an-unprecedented-85-million-in-the-2014-elections

29 The Atlas Project ldquoEnvironment and energy ad spending byKantar Media IntelligenceCMAGrdquo October 30 2014

30 Peter Stone ldquoKoch Brothers Unveil New Strategy at BigDonor Eventrdquo The Daily Beast June 13 2014 available athttpwwwthedailybeastcomarticles20140613koch-brothers-make-climate-activists-new-targethtml

31 Anthony Leiserowitz and Edward Maibach ldquoWhy Candidates

Should Take a Stand to Limit Global Warmingrdquo The Hill Con-gress Blog October 17 2014 available at httpthehillcomblogscongress-blogcampaign220987-why-candidates-should-take-a-stand-to-limit-global-warming

32 Emily Atkin ldquolsquoIrsquom Not A Scientistrsquo A Complete Guide ToPoliticians Who Plead Ignorance On Climate Changerdquo Think-Progress October 3 2014 available at httpthinkprogressorgclimate201410033575849not-a-scientist




33 Scott Wartman ldquoMcConnell Talks Brent Spence HeroinEbolardquo The Cincinnati Enquirer October 2 2014 available athttpwwwcincinnaticomstorynewspolitics20141002mcconnell-taking-ebola-threat-seriously16586749

34 Ibid

35 Atkin ldquolsquoIrsquom Not A Scient istrsquordquo

36 James Hohmann ldquoJoni Ernst Bruce Braley clash over EPA indebaterdquo Politico October 12 2014 available at httpwwwpoliticocomstory201410joni-ernst-bruce-braley-clash-over-epa-in-debate-111810html

37 Leiserowitz and Maibach ldquoWhy Candidates Should Take aStand to Limit Global Warmingrdquo

38 Amy Levin and Greg Strimple ldquoRecent Polling on YouthVotersrdquo (Washington Benenson Strategy Group 2013)available at httpwwwlcvorgissuespollingrecent-poll-ing-on-youthpdf

39 Ibid

40 John Tierney ldquoHow to Win Millennials Equality ClimateChange and Gay Marriagerdquo The Atlantic May 17 2014available at httpwwwtheatlanticcompoliticsar-chive201405everything-you-need-to-know-about-millen-nials-political-views371053

41 Emily Hoban Kirby and Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg ldquoThe YouthVote in 2008rdquo (Medford MA The Center for Informationamp Research on Civic Learning and Engagement 2009)

available at httpwwwcivicyouthorgPopUpsFactSheetsFS_youth_Voting_2008_updated_622pdf The Center forInformation amp Research on Civic Learning and EngagementldquoOfficial Youth Turnout Rate in 2010 was 24rdquo Press releaseApril 15 2011 available at httpwwwcivicyouthorgofficial-youth-turnout-rate-in-2010-was-24

42 The Center for Information amp Research on Civic Learn-ing and Engagement ldquoThe Youth Vote in 2012rdquo (2013)available at httpwwwcivicyouthorgwp-contentup-loads201305CIRCLE_2013FS_outhVoting2012FINALpdf

43 David Madland and Ruy Teixeira ldquoNew Progressive America The Millennial Generationrdquo(Washington Center for Ameri-can Progress 2009) available at httpcdnamericanprog-ressorgwp-contentuploadsissues200905pdfmillenni-al_generationpdf

44 Ibid

45 Ibid

46 Dianna Duran ldquoDianna Duran Secretary of State 2014_ VoterIDrdquo YouTube October 25 2014 available at httpswwwyoutubecomwatchv=sIq3spGqa_E

47 Steve Terrell ldquoElection Ad Watch Duran campaign ad attacksrivals stance on voter ID lawsrdquo The Santa Fe New MexicanOctober 27 2014 available at httpwwwsantafenew-mexicancomelectionselections_2014stateelection-ad-watch-duran-campaign-ad-attacks-rivals-stance-onarticle_15589523-dd3f-5738-9d1b-abd358530dffhtml Trip Gabriel ldquoKris Kobach Pushed Kansas to the Right NowKansas Is Pushing BackrdquoThe New York Times October 162014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20141017uspoliticsvoter-id-firebrand-kris-kobach-takes-a-low-profile-kansas-office-out-of-the-shadowshtml

48 Dianna Duran ldquoDianna Duran Secretary of State 2014_ VoterIDrdquo

49 Ibid

50 Ibid

51 Gabriel ldquoKris Kobach Pushed Kansas to the Rightrdquo

52 Scott Keyes ldquoIowa Congressman Warns That DemocratsWill Steal The 2016 Electionrdquo ThinkProgress August12 2014 available at httpthinkprogressorgelec-tion201408123470051iowa-secretary-of-state

53 Ibid

54 Justin Levitt ldquoThe Truth About Voter Fraudrdquo Brennan Centerfor Justice November 9 2007 available at httpwwwbrennancenterorgpublicationtruth-about-voter-fraud

55 Natasha Khan and Corbin Carson ldquoElection Day imper-sonation an impetus for voter ID laws a rarity data showrdquoThe Washington Post August 11 2012 available at httpwwwwashingtonpostcompoliticselection-day-im-personation-an-impetus-for-voter-id-laws-a-rarity-data-show201208117002911e-df20-11e1-a19c-fcfa365396c8_storyhtml

56 Dissent of Judge Richard Posner Frank v Walker 14-2058

and 14-2059 October 10 2014 available at httpss3ama-zonawscoms3documentcloudorgdocuments1312285posnerpdf

57 Shelby County v Holder No 12ndash96 June 25 2013 availableat httpwwwsupremecourtgovopinions12pd-f12-96_6k47pdf

58 Brennan Center for Justice ldquoVoting Laws Roundup 2014rdquoJune 16 2014 available at httpwwwbrennancenterorganalysisvoting-laws-roundup-2014

59 Wendy R Weiser and Erik Opsal ldquoThe State of Voting in2014rdquo Brennan Center for Justice June 27 2014 availabl e athttpwwwbrennancenterorganalysisstate-voting-2014

60 Brennan Center for Justice ldquoStates With New VotingRestrictions Since 2010 Electionrdquo October 20 2014 availableat httpwwwbrennancenterorgnew-voting-restric-tions-2010-election

61 Brennan Center for Justice ldquoTexas Photo ID Trial BeginsGroups Argue Law Violates Voting Rights Act ConstitutionrdquoSeptember 2 2014 available at httpw wwbrennancenterorgpress-releasetexas-photo-id-trial-begins-groups-ar-gue-law-violates-voting-rights-act-constitution

62 Reid Wilson ldquoReport Voter ID laws reduce turnout moreamong African American and young votersrdquoThe WashingtonPost October 9 2014 available at httpwwwwashington-postcomblogsgovbeatwp20141009report-voter-id-laws-reduce-turnout-more-among-african-american-and-younger-voters

63 Alice Ollstein ldquoBREAKING Court Refuses To Intervene InCase Of 40000 Missing Voters In Georgiardquo ThinkProgressOctober 28 2014 available at httpthinkprogressorgelec-tion201410283585449court-allows-voter-suppression

64 Better Georgia ldquoFULL SPEECH Ga GOP Sec of State saysDemocrats will win through minority voter registrationrdquo

YouTube September 11 2014 availab le at httpswwwyoutubecomwatchv=USDQv5PjjQcampfeature=youtube

65 Craig Timberg and Lonnae OrsquoNeal Parker ldquoBlack electorateresponds mightily to perceived voter-intimidation effortsrdquoThe Washington Post November 6 2012 available athttpwwwwashingtonpostcompoliticsdecision2012black-electorate-responds-mightily-to-perceived-voter-in-timidation-efforts20121107d7596304-2900-11e2-b4e0-346287b7e56c_storyhtml

66 Celinda Lake and Cornelia Treptow ldquoThe Rising AmericanElectorate and the 2012 Presidential Elec tionrdquo (WashingtonLake Research Partners 2014) Slide 15 available at httpwwwvoterparticipationorgwp-contentuploads201406VPC-post-election-report-Finalpdf

67 Lake and Treptow ldquoThe Rising American Electorate and the2012 Presidential Electio nrdquo Slide 27

68 Paul Taylor and Mark Hugo Lopez ldquoSix take-aways from theCensus Bureaursquos voting reportrdquo Pew Research Center May8 2013 available at httpwwwpewresearchorgfact-tank20130508six-take-aways-from-the-census-bureaus-voting-reportnore

69 Lindsey Boerma ldquoSen Rand Paul woos minorities in critiqueagainst voting drug lawsrdquo CBS News September 19 2014available at httpwwwcbsnewscomnewssen-rand-paul-woos-minorities-in-critique-against-voting-drug-laws



70 College Republican National Committee ldquoSay Yes To RickScottrdquo YouTube October 1 2014 available at httpswwwyoutubecomwatchv=ZOppsQJtL2M

71 Rebecca Ballhaus ldquoCollege GOP Democrats Are Like a BadWedding Dressrdquo The Washington Post October 1 2014available at httpblogswsjcomwashwire20141001college-gop-democrats-are-like-a-bad-wedding-dress-mod=WSJ_Politics_Blogamputm_medium=twitteramputm_source=twitterfeed

72 Charlotte Alter ldquoThis is the Most Sexist Republican Ad ofthe Yearrdquo Time October 1 2014 available at httptime

com3453216republican-sexist-ad

73 Sally Holmes ldquoHere Is the GOPrsquos Delightfully Offensive lsquoSayYes to the Dressrsquo Political Adrdquo Elle October 1 2014 availableat httpwwwellecomnewslifestylehere-is-the-gops-de-lightfully-offensive-say-yes-to-the-dress-politcal-ad

74 Bryce Covert ldquoRepublican Unanimously Block Equal PayBillrdquo ThinkProgress September 15 2014 availa ble at httpthinkprogressorgeconomy201409153567740republi-cans-paycheck-fairness-act

75 Ed OrsquoKeefe ldquoThe House has voted 54 times in four years onObamacare Herersquos the full listrdquo The Washington Post blog The Fix March 21 2014 available at httpwwwwashing-tonpostcomblogsthe-fixwp20140321the-house-has-voted-54-times-in-four-years-on-obamacare-heres-the-full-list Kevin Quealy and Margot Sanger-Katz ldquoObamarsquos HealthLaw Who Was Helped Mostrdquo The New York Times blog TheUpshot October 29 2014 available at httpwwwnytimes

cominteractive20141029upshotobamacare-who-was-helped-mosthtmlabt=0002ampabg=1

76 Henry J Kaiser Family Foundation ldquoHealth Care TrackingPoll Exploring the Publicrsquos View of the Affordable Care Act(ACA)rdquo available at httpkfforginteractivehealth-tracking-poll-exploring-the-publics-views-on-the-affordable-care-act-aca (last accessed October 2014)

77 Annie-Rose Strasser ldquoWhy The Minimum Wage Is AWomenrsquos Issue In Three Chartsrdquo ThinkProgress February13 2013 available at httpthinkprogressorgecono-my201302131591791minimum-wage-women-chartsPat Garofalo ldquoTop Republicans Oppose Obamarsquos Call To Raise The Minimum Wagerdquo ThinkProgress February13 2013 available at httpthinkprogressorgecono-my201302131587381top-republicans-oppose-mini-mum-wage

78 Americ ans for Shared Prosper ity ldquoDatin g Profilerdquo YouTubeSeptember 21 2014 available at httpswwwyoutubecomwatchv=JNwCDIGuMK4

79 Renee Schoof and John Frank ldquoAbortion question dividesNorth Carolinarsquos US Senate candidatesrdquo The Raleigh Newsamp Observer January 31 2014 available at httpwwwnewsobservercom201401313581067abortion-ques-tion-divides-northhtml Jason Salzman ldquoBeauprez Gardnerand the Personhood Mysteryrdquo The Huffington Post October6 2014 available at httpwwwhuffingtonpostcom jason-salzmanbeauprez-gardner-and-the_b_5939332html

80 Cameron Joseph ldquoSenate hopeful embraces OTC birth con-trolrdquo The Hill September 4 2014 available at httpthehillcomblogsballot-boxsenate-races216620-tillis-embraces-over-the-counter-birth-control Charles Posner ldquoCoryrsquos Colo-rado How Rep Cory Gardnerrsquos Policy Positions Hurt Womenand Familiesrdquo (Washington Center for American ProgressAction Fund 2014) available at httpwwwamericanpro-gressactionorgissueseconomyreport2014101598874corys-colorado

81 Mara Liasson ldquoAll The Single Ladies 5 Takeaways AboutUnmarried Female Votersrdquo NPR May 5 2014 available athttpwwwnprorg20140505308955525all-the-single-ladies-5-takeaways-about-unmarried-women-voters

82 Ibid

83 Lake and Treptow ldquoThe Rising American Electorate and the2012 Presidential Electionrdquo Slide 28

84 Jackie Calmes ldquoTo Hold Senate Democrats Rely on SingleWomenrdquo The New York Times July 2 2014 available at httpwwwnytimescom20140703ussingle-women-mid-term-electionshtml

85 Liasson ldquoAll The Single Ladiesrdquo

86 Calmes ldquoTo Hold Senaterdquo

87 CNN ldquo2010 National Exit Pollsrdquo available at httpwwwcnncomELECTION2010resultspollsUSH00p1 (last accessedNovember 2014) CNN ldquo2012 National Exit Pollsrdquo available athttpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsracepresident (last accessed November 2014)




Immigration

Screenshot of Senate candidate Tom Cottonrsquos ad ldquo Southern Borderrdquo1

While Republicans have radiionally relied on illegal immigraion o rally he conser-

vaive base his cycle has seen some o he mos exreme ani-immigraion messaging

rom Republican candidaes and allied groups During he summer Arkansas Senae

candidae om Coton (R) ran a series o ani-immigraion ads including one iled

ldquoSouhern Borderrdquo in a six-figure buy2 In he ad a voiceover says ldquoOur souhern border

chaos and crime Washingon made he mess Sen Mark Pryor voed or amnesy

Ciizenship or illegals Pryor voed agains a border ence hree imesrdquo3 Te ad bases

mos o is criicism on Sen Pryorrsquos (D) voe or an immigraion reorm bill calling

i ldquoamnesyrdquo which many ac-checkers poined ou was inaccurae4

New EnglandRepublican Scot Brown employed a similar acic running hree ads on border securiy

in his ques or a New Hampshire Senae sea one warning ha a porous border leaves

he Unied Saes vulnerable o he Ebola virus5

Tese ads are par o a rend by Republicans o use immigraion ears as a wedge linking

immigraion o he publicrsquos concerns on issues such as he Islamic Sae o Iraq and

al-Sham or ISIS and Ebola Georgia GOP Senae candidae David Perdue ran an ad

iled ldquoSecure Our Bordersrdquo which atemps o ie his Democraic opponen Michelle

Nunnrsquos posiion or comprehensive immigraion reorm o ailing o proec he Unied

Saes rom erroriss6 ldquoShersquos or amnesy while errorism expers say our border

breakdown could provide an enry or groups like ISISrdquo he voiceover says7 Perduersquos

ad which includes images rom ISIS videos cies a exas Deparmen o Public Saey

bullein ha saes ldquomilians are expressing an increased ineres in he noion ha hey

could clandesinely infilrae he souhwes border o US or error atackrdquo8 Te bullein

examines ldquosocial chaterrdquo which amouned o jus 32 social media poss ha exas law

enorcemen laer acknowledged could no be verified9 PoliiFac gave he ad a ldquomosly
























FIGURE 1








152002

156

2004

161

2006

173

2008

195

2010

213

2012

233

2014

255

2016

277

20

25

30









Climate change






Climae Acion Plan22





























































FIGURE 2





2008 2012 2016

23 29 36




Voting rights










or Senae a he ime49





























































2004

111

2006 2008

123

2010

116

2012

134

2014

11

2016

FIGURE 3







10

11

12

13

14

103









Womenrsquos issues


































wan o repeal80










FIGURE 4







18

20

22

24

2002

199

2000

211

2004

222

2006

206

2008

232

2010

212

2012

24

2014

22

2016










Conclusion


















Endnotes









7 Ibid






















26 Ibid













34 Ibid





39 Ibid






44 Ibid

45 Ibid




49 Ibid

50 Ibid



53 Ibid



































82 Ibid





























FIGURE 1








152002

156

2004

161

2006

173

2008

195

2010

213

2012

233

2014

255

2016

277

20

25

30









Climate change






Climae Acion Plan22





























































FIGURE 2





2008 2012 2016

23 29 36




Voting rights










or Senae a he ime49





























































2004

111

2006 2008

123

2010

116

2012

134

2014

11

2016

FIGURE 3







10

11

12

13

14

103









Womenrsquos issues


































wan o repeal80










FIGURE 4







18

20

22

24

2002

199

2000

211

2004

222

2006

206

2008

232

2010

212

2012

24

2014

22

2016










Conclusion


















Endnotes









7 Ibid






















26 Ibid













34 Ibid





39 Ibid






44 Ibid

45 Ibid




49 Ibid

50 Ibid



53 Ibid



































82 Ibid














Climate change






Climae Acion Plan22





























































FIGURE 2





2008 2012 2016

23 29 36




Voting rights










or Senae a he ime49





























































2004

111

2006 2008

123

2010

116

2012

134

2014

11

2016

FIGURE 3







10

11

12

13

14

103









Womenrsquos issues


































wan o repeal80










FIGURE 4







18

20

22

24

2002

199

2000

211

2004

222

2006

206

2008

232

2010

212

2012

24

2014

22

2016










Conclusion


















Endnotes









7 Ibid






















26 Ibid













34 Ibid





39 Ibid






44 Ibid

45 Ibid




49 Ibid

50 Ibid



53 Ibid



































82 Ibid
























































FIGURE 2





2008 2012 2016

23 29 36




Voting rights










or Senae a he ime49





























































2004

111

2006 2008

123

2010

116

2012

134

2014

11

2016

FIGURE 3







10

11

12

13

14

103









Womenrsquos issues


































wan o repeal80










FIGURE 4







18

20

22

24

2002

199

2000

211

2004

222

2006

206

2008

232

2010

212

2012

24

2014

22

2016










Conclusion


















Endnotes









7 Ibid






















26 Ibid













34 Ibid





39 Ibid






44 Ibid

45 Ibid




49 Ibid

50 Ibid



53 Ibid



































82 Ibid









Voting rights










or Senae a he ime49





























































2004

111

2006 2008

123

2010

116

2012

134

2014

11

2016

FIGURE 3







10

11

12

13

14

103









Womenrsquos issues


































wan o repeal80










FIGURE 4







18

20

22

24

2002

199

2000

211

2004

222

2006

206

2008

232

2010

212

2012

24

2014

22

2016










Conclusion


















Endnotes









7 Ibid






















26 Ibid













34 Ibid





39 Ibid






44 Ibid

45 Ibid




49 Ibid

50 Ibid



53 Ibid



































82 Ibid























































2004

111

2006 2008

123

2010

116

2012

134

2014

11

2016

FIGURE 3







10

11

12

13

14

103









Womenrsquos issues


































wan o repeal80










FIGURE 4







18

20

22

24

2002

199

2000

211

2004

222

2006

206

2008

232

2010

212

2012

24

2014

22

2016










Conclusion


















Endnotes









7 Ibid






















26 Ibid













34 Ibid





39 Ibid






44 Ibid

45 Ibid




49 Ibid

50 Ibid



53 Ibid



































82 Ibid









Womenrsquos issues


































wan o repeal80










FIGURE 4







18

20

22

24

2002

199

2000

211

2004

222

2006

206

2008

232

2010

212

2012

24

2014

22

2016










Conclusion


















Endnotes









7 Ibid






















26 Ibid













34 Ibid





39 Ibid






44 Ibid

45 Ibid




49 Ibid

50 Ibid



53 Ibid



































82 Ibid















wan o repeal80










FIGURE 4







18

20

22

24

2002

199

2000

211

2004

222

2006

206

2008

232

2010

212

2012

24

2014

22

2016










Conclusion


















Endnotes









7 Ibid






















26 Ibid













34 Ibid





39 Ibid






44 Ibid

45 Ibid




49 Ibid

50 Ibid



53 Ibid



































82 Ibid









Conclusion


















Endnotes









7 Ibid






















26 Ibid













34 Ibid





39 Ibid






44 Ibid

45 Ibid




49 Ibid

50 Ibid



53 Ibid



































82 Ibid









Endnotes









7 Ibid






















26 Ibid













34 Ibid





39 Ibid






44 Ibid

45 Ibid




49 Ibid

50 Ibid



53 Ibid



































82 Ibid










34 Ibid





39 Ibid






44 Ibid

45 Ibid




49 Ibid

50 Ibid



53 Ibid



































82 Ibid






















82 Ibid






backfire: republican rhetoric in 2014 will be an albatross for 2016

Documents