backcasting from principles and the abcd methodology...jan 15, 2008 · • establish creative...

Backcasting from Principles and the

ABCD Methodology

Madison TNS Meeting 15 January 2008

Lisa MacKinnon

2007 The Natural Step

Backcasting: Beginning with the End in Mind

Forecasting

Backcasting

ABCD Method• (A)wareness – education, training & agreeing on:

–Object of study

–Sustainability challenge (funnel of declining opportunity)

–A future landing spot (defined by the sustainability principles)

–The method (the ABCD model)

• (B)aseline – current reality assessment by listing:–all current flows and practices that are problematic from a

sustainability perspective

–all the assets that already are in place

ABCD Method• (C)ompelling Vision – 2 components:

–Identify characteristics of a sustainable Madison. –Brainstorm initiatives (actions, investments, programs etc.)

for bridging the gap(s) you identify in the baseline.

• (D)own to action – prioritize short, medium & long term initiatives by asking:–Does this initiative move us toward compliance with all 4

system conditions?–Is the action a flexible platform for future moves (ask:

“then what?”)?–Does the action provide an adequate return on investment

(financial, political etc.)?


B – Current Reality Assessment

1. …the accumulation in nature of substances extracted from the earth’s crust?

2. …the accumulation in nature of substances produced by society?

3. …the systematic degradation of nature by physical means?

4. …conditions that undermine people’s capacity to meet their needs

In what ways is our current transportation system contributing to….


C - Creating the Compelling Vision

1. …the accumulation in nature of substances extracted from the earth’s crust

2. …the accumulation in nature of substances produced by society

3. …the systematic degradation of nature by physical means

4. …conditions that undermine people’s capacity to meet their needs

What are its main characteristics?

In a sustainable future, our transportation system does not contribute to:

The ‘B’ Step -- Current Reality Assessment

System Condition #1 In what ways is Madison’s transportation system currently contributing to the accumulation in nature of substances extracted from the Earth’s crust?

Fossil fuelsMercury switches in carsSand/gravel/saltAsbestosLead – batteriesOil based asphaltTires – steelMetals – car – iron, aluminum, chromium, lead etc.Steel rebar – bridges, overpasses, guard rails, signage etc.Lights – copper wiring, poles, light fixturesBrake fluidConcreteShredder fluff


System Condition #2 In what ways is Madison’s transportation system currently contributing to the accumulation in nature of human-made substances?

Synthetic rubberPlastics – vehicles, signage etc.Explosives – quarrySynthetic de-icersPaintSigns – PVC, coatings, coveringSynthetic materials – seatsFoamUV protectors – signageCar wash soaps etc.CoolantsWindshield washer fluidShredder fluffEmissionsBattery acid


System Condition #3In what ways is Madison’s transportation system currently contributing to the systematic degradation of nature by physical means?

Rubber trees (to be confirmed)Quarry, sand, gravel extractionCar wash effluent to water bodiesLand, land, land – roads, parking lots, sprawl, land fill of wasteStorm water runoff and channelization of watercoursesWater – input into manufacturing processesDisruption to the migration of animalsEcosystem fragmentationIntroduction of invasive speciesMicroclimate changes (paved areas) – ecosystem diversity impactsNight sky lighting Water permeability affects (from storm drainage, paving)Unique geography of Madison – forces growth outward

The ‘B’ Step -- Current Reality AssessmentSystem Condition #4In what ways is Madison’s transportation system currently contributing to activities that interfere with people’s capacity to meet their needs?

Emissions – health impactsSecurity camera –aestheticNight sky – impactsDisconnected from places of work and between peopleInconvenient to access – arts, cultural activities, etc.Car accidents and loss of lifePersonal injuries – health care impacts, legal costs, insurance, ambulance requirements etc.Opportunity costs – roads take away from other usesInefficient use of resourcesCost implications of mobilityRoad rageNoise/visual pollutionIsolating neighborhoodsExpropriation of land for road widening/new freewaysGlobal warmingPolice/legal costsIssues in oil producing countries – national security costs

Potentials to Build on: What current programs, projects, and assets can the city use as building blocks for a transition to sustainability?

Car free challengeEducational programsFree bus passes – employees/university Hybrid bussesBike Racks/trails/connectivityBiker policyResidential as well as road material recyclingBio-diesel stationEmphasis on alternative transportationSalt reduction policyLight rail/commuter rail/trolleysStreet sweepingRain gardensMixed use neighborhoods – policyWork at homeReduction in parking requirements

Increased density provisions policyMetro transit – low sulphur dieselTurtle tunnelPropane system for Taxi’sVisual/night sky ordinancesTraffic calmingCommunity car share programOzone action daysImproved pedestrian networkComputerized routing/GIS

‘C’ Step -- Compelling Vision

In a sustainable future Madison’s transportation system does not contribute to……systematically increasing concentrations of substances extracted from the Earth’s crust.…systematically increasing concentrations of substances produced by society.…systematically increasing degradation by physical means.…conditions that systematically undermine people’s capacity to meet their needs.

Its main characteristics are:Car is not an iconFossil-fuel freeRegional approach to transportationPrioritize transit/bicycles over private automobileFree transitCoordinated multi-modal systemMinimal footprint – strategically placed densityMixed use developmentMore pubsCar free downtown

Renewable energyNo polluted runoffMeets everyone’s needs (all 9)Accessible on demandMaterials (closed loop)Substitute persistent substances for materials that break down

D Step -- Ideas for possible strategies, actions or investments that might take us toward our sustainability visionElectric powered city vehiclesSolar panelsGoose poop fuelArtificial squeeze pointsExpress busZoned congestion pricingEasy passExemption for bio fuel vehiclesIncentives for mass transitMulti-function bus useVariable rate parkingReduce barriers to transitFrequent service (no set schedule)FreeSolar bike station – showers/bike repairSolar powered robotic lawn mowersBus traffic priority light thingy’s

City waste stream (composting, methane) to fuel bus/city vehiclesBike priority roads (no vehicles)Web based service deliveryWeb based meetingsIntegrate the movement of people/stuffi.e. central facility for the delivery of goods using buscar wheel taxmore park & ride and options to get downtownrebates as incentivebreak points outside of town (for deliveries)education and awareness about sustainabilitychannel 12shift corridors through town for public transit

Prioritizing:Compliance with 4SCs?

Flexible Platform?ROI?

ABCD & SC 1,2,3,4... Sounds Pretty Linear, Right?

Well, Actually....

Start /Repeat the ABCD process

Implement ActionsBroaden Awareness

Monitor

Progress &

Provide Feedback

Across Depts.

Review and

modify accordingly

Apply Learnings

The Natural Step Principles of SustainabilityIn a Sustainable Society:1. Nature is not subject to

systematically increasing concentrations of substances extracted from the Earth’s crust.

2. Nature is not subject to systematically increasing concentrations of substances produced by society.

3. Nature is not subject to systematically increasing degradation by physical means

4. People are not subject to conditions that systematically undermine their capacity to meet their needs.


Key Elements of Successful B’s & C’s

• Establish Creative Tension“Leadership in a learning organization starts with the principle of creative tension. Creative tension comes from seeing clearly where we want to be, our "vision," and telling the truth about where we are, our "current reality." The gap between the two generates a natural tension."

Peter Senge, Author

Description of Current Reality

Description of Success

Creative tension


Key Elements of Successful B’s & C’s

• Use the Sustainability Principles to conduct the B & C steps as they help us maintain the creative tension, keep us honest & rigorous & ensure that the vision is really sustainable.

• Explain how existing programs & initiatives are helping to bridge the gap.

From Linear to Loop

Start /Repeat the ABCD process

Implement ActionsBroaden Awareness

Monitor

Progress &

Provide Feedback

Review and

modify accordingly

Apply Learnings

Opportunities

Agency Level

Department Level

Project Level

backcasting from principles and the abcd methodology...jan 15, 2008 · • establish creative...

Documents