azerbaijans 20 years of economic independence: is it really independence? november 29, 2011 ingilab...
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![Page 1: Azerbaijans 20 years of economic independence: Is it really independence? November 29, 2011 Ingilab Ahmadov](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514bf51550346b0338b47e0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Azerbaijan’s 20 years of economic independence:
Is it really independence?
November 29, 2011
Ingilab Ahmadov
![Page 2: Azerbaijans 20 years of economic independence: Is it really independence? November 29, 2011 Ingilab Ahmadov](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514bf51550346b0338b47e0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
SC GDP per capita, dynamics over 20 years (PPP)
2Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov
Source: http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/country/
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South Caucasus GDP in 2010
3Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov
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South Caucasus international reserves in 2011
4Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov
![Page 5: Azerbaijans 20 years of economic independence: Is it really independence? November 29, 2011 Ingilab Ahmadov](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514bf51550346b0338b47e0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Oil in Azeri economy (2010)
Robust economic growth in recent years, supported by high oil production and export and higher oil prices
Oil sector’s share in GDP (58%)
Oil sector’s share in Budget revenues (64%)
Oil sector’s share in Export (92,5 %)
5Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov
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What gave us 20 years of economic independence?
Positive
• Green light on Western capital coming into economy
• Substantial reconstruction of the infrastructure
• Baku become one of the most beautiful and richest cities of
FSU
• Integration into European and world economy, technology
and management
6Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov
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Negative
• Unemployment
• Loss of Soviet industry, agricultural sector
• Loss of robust education system
• Ejection of labor forces
• Scale of corruption
What gave us 20 years of economic independence?
7Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov
![Page 8: Azerbaijans 20 years of economic independence: Is it really independence? November 29, 2011 Ingilab Ahmadov](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514bf51550346b0338b47e0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Resource abundant economy
Advantages:
• State expansion economy (Keynes)
• Massive infrastructure reconstruction
• Initiator of regional infrastructure projects
• Surplus & international reserves
• High oil & gas prices and gaining momentum for the
expansion of investment abroad
8Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov
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Disadvantages:
• Inflation
• Loss of Competitiveness
• Costly/heavy economy
• Lack of job-created economy
• Consumer economy
• Lack of innovation
Resource abundant economy
9Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov
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Is it truly sustainable?
• Economy developments as sustainable as long as O&G
resources are enough
• Oil & gas resources are quite enough until 2025
• Oil Fund assets will reach $100 bln. (equal to GDP) by 2025
• Transit resources as an attempted alternative to natural
resources
• SOCAR Black Sea investment strategy
10Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov
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Is it truly a market economy?
• Not WTO member
• Monopoly, barrier on access to market
• Old/new economy
• Business, bureaucracy and politics are not
separated
11Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov
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Thank You!
12Dr.Ingilab Ahmadov