averting a climate catastrophe : solutions for home, work, community and nation john kaye ph: 0407...
TRANSCRIPT
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Averting a Climate Catastrophe: Solutions for Home, Work, Community and Nation
John KayePh: 0407 195 455Email: [email protected] 2006
(v6a)
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Presentation Outline 1
Brief Introduction: The Bad News – What is Greenhouse? – Australia: the climate bandit– Climate consequences – Sources of greenhouse pollution
Energy: The Good News– The non-solutions: clean coal and nuclear– Renewable energy solutions– Energy efficiency solutions– Saving the planet, generating jobs, becoming a world leader
in climate solutions
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Presentation Outline 2
Transport: More Good News– Climate friendly solutions
The Politics of Greenhouse– why the political process not responding – making the politicians take notice
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Carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 30% from 1000 AD to 2004 AD
Data Source: World Watch Institute
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The Greenhouse Effect
Source: Saskatchewan Interactive
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Global temperature 1861-2004
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/obsdata/globaltemperature.html
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International Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) (web site: www.ipcc.ch)
Set up by – World Meteorological Organisation & – United Nations Environment Programme
Leading climate scientists– cautious and rigorous
Working Group 1: Scientific basis of climate change– 635 scientists– 4,621 refereed scientific papers
"There is new and stronger evidence that most "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities."is attributable to human activities."
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8 Stott et al, Science 2000
Climate change models predict observations te
mp
era
ture
ano
mal
ies
(oC
)
modelling with actual increases in greenhouse gas concentrations
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But not without increased greenhouse gas concentrations
modelling without actual increases in greenhouse gas concentrations
Stott et al, Science 2000
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Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature; 1000 to 2100
10From: IPCC – 3rd Assessment Report 2001
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Impacts of unchecked climate change (IPCC data: www.ipcc.ch/pub/wg2SPMfinal.pdf)
Temperature rise– extreme heat events– ice melting (permafrost and caps) release of CO2 & methane
Sustained changes to rainfall patterns– droughts, floods & continental "summer drying"
Increased frequency & severity of extreme climate events– cyclones, typhoons, hurricanes, floods, droughts
Sea level rise– IPCC: 0.88 m by 2100 or worse (currently increase = 2 mm/year)– UK Met Office (Jan 2006): ice melt 7 m rise in long term
Changed wind patterns – spread of disease-carrying insects
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Consequences of unchecked climate change
Human:– widespread drought & famine– insect borne diseases– floods and inundation of populated areas– increased war and conflict
Natural ecosystems– loss of habitat and species
End of Permian Period (271 m years ago)End of Permian Period (271 m years ago)– rapid temperature rise of 60 C– 90% of life on planet disappeared90% of life on planet disappeared
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Climate refugees
1.5 m sea level rise means 17 million homeless in Ganges River delta
Calcutta is 3 m above sea level
Dhaka is 5 m above sea level
IPCC 2001 Adapted from Milliman et al. (1989).
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Per Capita Emissions Australia leads the way!
Data Source: The Australia Institute – Sept 2001
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
t C
O2
-e p
er
pe
rso
n
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15www.joelertola.com/ grfx/chrt_greenhouse.html
Australia: Climate Bandit
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Australian Coal Exports
approximately 730 million tonnes CO2 each year– 37 tonnes per person each year
+ 27 tonnes in Australia = 64 tonnes per person each year64 tonnes per person each year
231 million tonnes of coal exported in 2004/05– worth $18.3 billion (to whom?)– 77% of total Australian coal production
Australia = largest exporter in the world– about 30% of world trade– Newcastle = world's largest coal export port
(about 10% of world trade)
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Discussion Questions: Climate Change
Can we afford to ignore the evidence? Effects of changing temperature on
environment? Impacts on low income countries? What are the implications of global dimming? Climate change: fact or theory? What changes have you observed locally?
– Are these necessarily caused by climate change?
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Trends in Australia's Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
stationaryenergy
agriculture transport landclearing &forestry
industrydirect use
fugitive waste
mill
ion
to
nn
es
CO
2 e
qu
iv
1990
2003
Data Source: Australian Greenhouse Office
In 2003:
550 million tonnes CO2 equiv.
Plus approx. 730 million tonnes CO2 in export coal
In 2003:
550 million tonnes CO2 equiv.
Plus approx. 730 million tonnes CO2 in export coal
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Stationary Energy
268 million tonnes CO2 equivalent (Australia - 2003)– About 70% electricity generation– About 30% gas and other fuels
Fastest growing greenhouse source– 37.2% increase from 1990 to 2003– Air-conditioning, lower efficiency houses (lighting, heating),
commerce and industry
NSW electricity industry dominated by coal– 90% of energy generation is coal burning– Rest hydro, small amount of gas
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The big problem: Coal fired generators
Mt PiperPower Station
Lithgow, NSW
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18,000 jobs lost in Australia’s coal industry from mid 1980’s to 2002
From: Diesendorf 2004
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Non-solution 1: Geosequestration
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Problems with Geosequestration (Carbon capture and storage)
Will it work?– Unproven technology
Cost– Estimates vary:
A$10/tonne CO2 (Batterham)
A$140/tonne CO2 (US DoE)
Limited suitable storage sites close to sources Long term risk
– Release due to geological activity rupture or leakage
– Passes problem to next generation
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Non-solution 2: “Clean” Coal
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Non-solution 3: Nuclear Energy
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en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power
The Nuclear The Nuclear Fuel CycleFuel Cycle
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Nuclear Power Issues
Waste storage– Plutonium half life = 24,000 years (about 700 generationsabout 700 generations)
Accidents– Three Mile Island; Chernobyl– Sellafield Nuclear Facility (UK) 2005
Leak undetected for 9 months – 20 tonnes of uranium & plutonium dissolved in nitric acid
Containment can only be entered by robots Weapons & Terrorism
– Plutonium = inevitable by-product of nuclear power– Mohamed ElBaredei, IAEA:
“… the emergence of a nuclear black market, the determined efforts by more countries to acquire technology to produce the fissile material usable in nuclear weapons, and the clear desire of terrorists to acquire weapons of mass destruction”
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Nuclear Power Issues II
Costs:– Heavily subsidised
“In 1998, cumulative subsides to nuclear power had an equivalent cost of [US]$1,411 per household.” (REPP, 2000)
Greenhouse gas emissions – Mining and processing (milling) low grade ore
Resource scarcity– If all world’s electricity demand supplied by
nuclear, would exhaust high grade ore in 4 yearsexhaust high grade ore in 4 years (Smith & van Leeuwin)
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The good news:There are solutions and they work!
Australia does not need – Coal (clean or otherwise)– Geosequestration– Nuclear
"Clean Energy Future for Australia"– (wwf.org.au/ourwork/climatechange/cleanenergyfuture/)
Halve emissions by 2040 Halve emissions by 2040 with existing technologies– Wind (20%)– Bio-electricity (26%)– Natural gas (17%)– Solar heat– Energy efficiency
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Solution 1: Wind
Albany WA: 12 x 1.8 MW units = 75% of Albany’s electricity needs (image source: Western Power)
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Wind & jobs
Jobs change from mid 1980s to 2002
Wind Energy Industry in Denmark
+ 16,000 new jobs
Coal in Australia - 18,000 jobs lost
•wind (with 80% Aus content) creates:
4 x number of jobs as coal4 x number of jobs as coal
for each unit of energy generatedData Source: Diesendorf 2004
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Wind generation and the economy
$ overseas $ spent in Australia
1500 MW of coal
(costs $2 bn)$1.5 bn $0.5 bn
$2 bn invest in wind 80% Aus. content
$0.4 bn $1.6 bn
Data Source: Diesendorf 2004
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Wind Issues
Some (potentially) non-issues:– Noise– Bird strike
Care with siting– Fluctuations in availability
Limited to about 20% of electricity generation in Aus.
Some real issues– Scenic impacts– Wilderness & native vegetation impacts (esp. access roads)
Siting and development assessment process– Community involvement not “community consultation”– Needs to ensure that all affected parties share in benefits– Needs to respect local and environmental values
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Solution 2: Bio-electricity
Sunshine Coast, Qld:
• Ergon Energy
• Suncoast Gold Macadamias
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Bio-electricity: “Closed” Carbon Cycle
Carbon released from combustion iscarbon recently taken from atmosphere
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Issues with bio-electricity
Local environmental pollution Land degradation Water scarcity Native forestry wastes
– A distraction from the main game– Will cause more forests to be destroyed– Not needed:
Australia can generate 26% of its electricity from bio-electricity by 2040 without native forest residueswithout native forest residues
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Solution 3: Solar Heating (especially hot water)
Direct solar: e.g. solar water heater
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Solar Water Heaters
hot water = 27% of domestic energy use about 5% of all water heater installations are solar
– about 36,000 each year costs $800 - $2,100 more than conventional electric
system:– pays for itself in 5 - 10 years– plus subsidies from Federal Gvt (RECs):
$500 to $1000 or more depending on size
other systems:– electric heat pump– high efficiency gas
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Jobs in Solar Installation
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Solution 4: Energy efficiency
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Energy Efficiency: 9,000 new jobs9,000 new jobs
Ministerial Council on Energy 20% to 30% reduction in energy consumption possible
12 years benefits using available technology: Employment increase by around 9,000 (+0.1%)Employment increase by around 9,000 (+0.1%) GDP $1.8 billion higher (+0.2%)GDP $1.8 billion higher (+0.2%) 9% reduction in stationary energy consumption
(-213 PJ) 9% reduction in greenhouse emissions9% reduction in greenhouse emissions (-32MT)
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Impact on GDP (Using available technology)
Data Source: Australian Ministerial Council on Energy
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Energy Savings by Sector
Data Source: Australian Ministerial Council on Energy
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Greenhouse Sources in the Home
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Cooking
Standby
Lighting
Heating & cooling
Refrigeration
Other Appliances
Water heating
Source: www.greenhouse.gov.au/ yourhome/technical/fs40.htm
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Your Home
Water heating– Choice of solar, high efficiency instantaneous– Low flow shower heads
Space heating & cooling– Window shading– Insulation
Refrigeration, washing machine, appliances– Efficiency (5 star rating)
Lighting– High efficiency lights
House design for solar capture and energy performance
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Discussion Starters: Stationary Energy
Nuclear energy: would we ever see its benefits outweighing its dangers?
Wind energy: sacrificing scenic values for the climate?
Making the polluters pay: higher prices but lower bills for all?
What’s gone wrong: Why wont my rooftop solar panel compete with Mt Piper power station?
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Transport and Greenhouse Gases
One of fastest growing sources of greenhouse pollution
– 1990 to 2003 increased by 28.8%
79.8 million tonnes CO2 equivalent (2003)
15% of all of Australia’s greenhouse emissions
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Transport Emissions – TrendsAustralia: 1990 to 2003 (data source: Australian Greenhouse Office)
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cars Trucks &Buses
Light Comm CivilAviation
Rail other
Em
iss
ion
s (
mill
ion
T C
O2
eq
uiv
)
1990
2003
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Transport greenhouse emissions by mode (data source: Australian Greenhouse Office)
0.330.23
0.08
0.06
0.03
0.02
0
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
kg per person per km
Bike/Walking
Rail
Bus
New 1.8 litre car, 4 people
Average car, 4 people
New 1.8 litre car,driver only
Average car, driver only
Data source: www.greenhouse.gov.au/gwci/transport.html
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Hybrid Vehicles
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Private Vehicles = Traffic Congestion
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Biofuels
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Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
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Reinventing our rail system
Passenger public transport Freight on rails
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Jobs in rail transport
60% fewer jobs than 25 years ago. – 75% of jobs losses in regional and rural Australia. – average age of rail workforce is 52 years.
Need for public re-investment– capital infrastructure– the workforce
RTBU: immediate need for 1,500 traineesimmediate need for 1,500 trainees– mainly young people – many in regional areas.
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Bicycles and Light Rail
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Bicycle use
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Workshops
Brainstorming the solutions– at homeat home– at workat work– in the communityin the community– nationallynationally
Appoint a facilitator, a scribe and a reporter 5 minute report back on key findings
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What needs to be done?
Ending the fossil fuel age:Ending the fossil fuel age:– no new coal powerno new coal power– no new coal mines no new coal mines – no new motorwaysno new motorways– reduce dependence on export coalreduce dependence on export coal
Commit to 50% reduction by 2040 Carbon taxes (polluters pay)
– alternative: cap emissions and trade permits– assistance to low income households
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What needs to be done? (2)
Minimum energy efficiency standards– Industry, commercial and residential
Invest in renewable energy End subsidies to coal & energy intensive
uses– Just transitions to sustainable jobs
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How to make the transition and reap the benefits?
Industry policy (vs. globalisation & market ideology)– Develop industries that solve climate problems– Make deliberate decisions
locating manufacturing in areas with high unemployment
– High volume + low value added High value added + low volume
– Focus on innovation & developing export industries
Workforce– Unionised workforce, collectively bargaining– Public education opportunities
TAFE
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USA
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Making the transition: the politics of creating a future
Coalition: bad– “Clean Coal”: geosequestration– Undermined carbon taxes & carbon trading– MRET to expire, no teeth– Refused to sign Kyoto– Promoting “Asia Pacific Partnership” to destabilise
next round of Kyoto
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Making the transition: the politics of creating a future (2)
ALP: a little better– Sign Kyoto– Committed to reductions in the long term– Nice words about renewable energy
BUT:– Debate over uranium mining and energy– Still addicted to "clean" coal
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Asia Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate (AP6)
India, China, Japan, South Korea, USA, Australia– Largest coal based economies
Negotiated in secret Emphasis on “clean coal” solutions No reduction targets ABARE Study: emissions will double by 2030 Designed to:
– Undermine post-Kyoto negotiations – Take pressure off governments & fossil fuel industries
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NSW State Gvt:talking the talk but can they walk?
Recognition of greenhouse problem but … New coal fired electricity Air-conditioning load growing
– Cross-subsidy: each air-con household receives $70 a year subsidy
from non-air-con households (Sydney – EnergyAustralia 2005)
– Energy efficiency of new housing stock– Developer donations
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NSW State Gvt:talking the talk but can they walk? (2)
More km of Sydney motorway than all other gvts– Failure to get trains operating– Closure of branch lines
Desalination plant– 1% increase in stationary energy
(500 ML/day plant) (Australia Inst. data)
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The political system captured by entrenched interests
“Old” energy intensive industries:coal, oil, minerals Campaign donations
– $1.5 m from resources & energy sector in 1999-2003– Developers
Revolving door– Warwick Parer (Minister for Energy & Resources, 1996-1998)
– "Greenhouse Mafia": Australian Industry Greenhouse Network members writing &
accessing cabinet submissions (4 Corners 13/2/06)
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The political system is driven by
Fear of backlash – e.g. blackouts, water shortages
Ideology of deregulation & privatisation– Opposed to meaningful targets– Opposed to making polluters pay & pricing environmental
damage Short electoral cycle
vs medium time scale impacts
The political system is failing!The political system is failing!
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How to get there: Making the political system work
Community lead change to political process: – requires community transformation– Need to turn every household into greenhouse campaigner
Demand clean energy future Demand better public transport
The Greens– Raising the bar on the debate– Climate Action Working Group
2007 state and federal elections– Making positive solutions for greenhouse key issue– Social, economic and ecological benefits