Autonomous Vehicle Technology Where are we, Where are we going,

How to get there

Alain L Kornhauser, PhD, F.ITEProfessor: Operations Research and Financial Engineering

Faculty Chair: Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE)

Princeton University

Presented @Unmanned Vehicle Caucus“Autonomous Vehicle Technology: Briefing & Demonstration”

Wednesday, July 8th, 20152325 Rayburn House Office Building

Washington, DC

The Problem

• Safety!• What has been happening?– We’ve done a great job in Crash Mitigation• Lives are saved, Injuries are less severe• Cost to fix things after crashes has gone up

– Next great opportunity is Crash Avoidance• Can Technology help?• Where do we stand with Automation?

– Reliability?

PerfectionRe

liabi

lity

yesterday tomorrowtoday

Automation

Human

Reliability

Time

Automation

Human

Automation

Human

Automation

Human

Human versus Automation “Reliability” in Driving

Doesn’t work

Present (2010) Economic & Societal Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/2014/NHTSA-study-shows-vehicle-crashes-have-$871-billion-impact-on-U.S.-economy,-society

Insurance : (Half of Economic Costs) ~$140B

Automation could cut that in half ~ $70B/year

Present Value {Expected (

Loss Liability with the Technology – Loss Liability w/o the Technology)}

>

Cost {Automated Collision Avoidance Technology}

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

2013

$400,000,000

$430,000,000

$460,000,000

$490,000,000

$520,000,000

$550,000,000

$580,000,000

US Bus and Paratransit Data 2003-2013Casualty & Liability Expense

Source: Federal Transit Administration

Casualty and Liability Claims are a Huge Drain on the Industry

• For the 10 year period 2004-2013, more than $4.8 Billion was spent on casualty and liability claims

• For many self-insured transit agencies these expenses are direct “out-of-pocket”

• Large reserves for claims must be budgeted• Claims experience is reflected in insurance

premiums• There are gaps in data reporting

In the next five days the bus transit industry will spend $6.8 million in casualty and liability

expenses

Federal Transit AdministrationNational Transit Database for 2013

• Commuter Bus (CB), Motor Bus (MB), Bus Rapid Transit (RB), Demand Responsive (DR)

• 121 Fatalities• 15,700 Injuries• Casualty & Liability expenses paid =

• $499,872,628• Average of $6,187 per bus

Costs of Bus Crashes – Industry Wide

Tangible -likely not reported as casualty and liability expense

• Accident investigation• Drug and alcohol testing• Emergency services response• Hearings and discipline• In-house legal services• In-house vehicle repair• Lost fare revenue• Overtime• Passenger and service delays• Sick time• Spare vehicles and replacements• Vehicle recovery

Costs of Bus Crashes – Industry Wide

Intangible• Human loss and suffering• Media attention• Good will

There is proven technology that can significantly reduce the number of collisions, injuries, fatalities and claims

My goal is to make this technology available to the

transit bus industry

Recommendations

Where do we go from here?

• Nurture the environment that will follow Moore’s Law and improve and make cheaper automated technology

Proposal Title: Application of Autonomous Collision Avoidance Technology to Transit Buses to Reduce Claims,

Injuries and Fatalities

Submitted by Princeton UniversityIn association with:

American Public Transportation AssociationGreater Cleveland Regional Transit Authority

Washington State Transit Insurance PoolJerome M. Lutin, PhD, LLC

Where do we go from here?

• Nurture the environment that will follow Moore’s Law and improve and make cheaper automated technology

• Support Congressman Lipinski’s legislative initiative to create a Future Transportation Research and Innovation for Prosperity (TRIP) Act

Thank Youwww.Soterea.com

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=yARbNYcjPQM