automotive manufacturing key trends...manufacturing...

1 Manufacturing presentation_Roland_Berger_Dr.Wilfried_Aulbur.pptx

Chennai, September 12, 2012

Dr. Wilfried G. Aulbur Managing Partner, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Pvt. Ltd., India

Automotive Manufacturing – Key trends


This document shall be treated as confidential. It has been compiled for the exclusive, internal use by our client and is not complete without the underlying detail analyses and the oral presentation. It may

not be passed on and/or may not be made available to third parties without prior written consent from Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. RBSC does not assume any responsibility for the completeness

and accuracy of the statements made in this document.

© Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Agenda

Key trends in automotive manufacturing

About Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

A.

B. Page 35

Page 3

3 Manufacturing presentation_Roland_Berger_Dr.Wilfried_Aulbur.pptx mb-wallpaper.de

A. Key trends in automotive manufacturing


The automotive market is increasingly changing and will undergo dramatic transformations in the next 10-15 years

Source: Automotive landscape 2025 study, Automotive engineering 2025 study by Roland Berger

Key megatrends impacting the automotive industry

Newer changes in technology – powertrain, ICT etc.

Sales and production increasingly shifting to Asia

Regulations getting more stringent

Shortage of qualified employees in traditional triad markets

Changing consumer preferences – small cars to grow the fastest

Geo-political change 1 Demographic change 2

1

Evolution of mobility 3

Sustainability 5 Technological change 4

2

3

4

5


Traditional markets facing shortage of qualified employees – New talent sources will need to be developed and integrated

1

COMMENTS

> Complexities in manufacturing will increase – creating demand for highly qualified workers

> But share of graduates and qualified employees in traditional markets declining, Asia evolving as a new talent source

> Automotive manufacturing to compete with non-manufacturing new economy jobs for talent

> Wages expected to increase creating further pressure on automakers

> Regional centers of competence may need to be defined and implemented: – India/China for manufacturing/frugal solutions – Japan/East Asia for 3-D (online) navigation systems – Brazil for alternative fuels – California for online entertainment solutions

6.5% 7.7%

7.1% 9.0%

17.8%

20.6%

23.8%

13.4%

11.1%

2000 2020 2010

Source: Center for American Progress, Center for the Next Generation, Automotive Engineering 2025 study by Roland Berger

Share of world's college graduate: US, China, India


There will be a dramatic shift of production capacity – 300,000 manufacturing jobs in Europe at risk, opportunity for Asia

Source: ACEA, Prognos, AAA, VDA, Global insight, Eurostat, Automotive landscape 2025 study by Roland Berger

11% 15%

9% 8%

2025

114

44%

32%

2010

69

59%

21%

2000

57

86%

3% 6%

5% 2.8

6.7

12.8

0.2

Other

BRI

China

Triad

Production of light vehicles by region

CAGR [%]

Auto-related employment in Europe 2008-'25 [m]

2025

13.3

3.2%

10.1%

2008

12.6

3.5%

9.1%

Automotive-related services (transport, retail, other)

Vehicle manu-facturing

+0.7 m jobs

+1.0 m jobs

-0.3 m jobs

Total automotive industry

2


Consumer preferences and markets are shifting – Small vehicles to grow fastest globally

Source: nextpractice GmbH for Roland Berger, Roland Berger

3

Youth study: Vehicle attractiveness Light vehicle sales by segment [m units, %]

54% 51% 58% 56%

10% 9%

2010 2025

114 69

36% 40%

6%

22

37%

7%

2010

14

36%

2025

CAGR [%] Mid-size (C/D) Large (LE/F/above) Small (A/B)

Global development Example: China

2.7

3.0

4.1

6.8

5.4

5.9

Buying a car

Driving a car

Going by bike

Using a carpool

Going by public transportation

-1.0

+1.0

Germany In 5 years In the past Today

Co

rrel

atio

n w

it

ob

ject

of

des

ire

+1.0

-1.0

Buying a car

Driving a car

Going by bike

Using a carpool

Going by public transportation

-1.0

+1.0

China In 5 years In the past Today

Co

rrel

atio

n w

it

ob

ject

of

des

ire

+1.0

-1.0


Increasing electrification of powertrain expected; fully intelligent and connected transportation system to evolve

Source: Roland Berger

1) Assumption: ICE includes micro hybrid functionality

4

Powertrain electrification scenario – 20251) Technology advancements expected in future

67% 6% 10% 8% 9%

58% 8% 14% 13% 7%

54% 11% 17% 8% 10%

52% 11% 11% 14% 12%

ICE

Mid hybrid

Full hybrid/PHEV

Range extender

EV

Europe

Japan/Korea

N. America

China

Intelligent vehicles

Intelligent infrastructure

Collision notification

Collision warning

Traveler information

Electronic pay system

Incident management

Arterial management

Freeway management

Transit management systems

Emergency management

systems

CV operations

Intermodal freight

Crash prevention and safety

Roadway operations & maintenance

Roadway weather management

Information management

Driver assistance

Auto-pilot vehicles


Regulations are increasingly getting more stringent in all markets – Driving usage of alternate materials (1/2)


Likely impact of regulations on material preferences

Emission norms Safety/crash norms Heavy metal/lead free and low volatile content

Green technologies and recycling

> Focus on lightweighting

> Increased usage of Polypropylene (PP) for weight reduction

> Increased usage of aluminum

> Increased demand for aromatic nylons

> Greater demand for natural substitutes (jute, coconut etc.)

> High use of inert plastics such as PP

> Elastomers/metals could be replaced by recyclable olefins (PP/Polyethylene (PE) based)

> Higher use of natural fibers in polymers

> Introduction of bio-polymers for vehicles

5


Regulations are increasingly getting more stringent in all markets – Driving usage of alternate materials (2/2)

Source: Auto aluminum, MIT Energy Laboratory Report, Roland Berger

Lightweight materials

> Aluminium and magnesium for car body and components

> Carbon-glass fibre and composites for fenders, etc.

Nano and hybrid materials

> Self-healing materials for scratch resistant coatings

> Biomaterials for seats

> New polymers for LED, displays and other electronic components

> High performance catalysts for exhaust and for electrochemical cells

2020E

136.0

2010

113.0

1996

81.0

Kerb

weight 7.8% 11% 6%

5 ILLUSTRATIVE

Aluminum content in cars [kg]


While some automakers are struggling with increasing aluminum content, others are already far ahead of the curve

Source: Business press, BMW website, Roland Berger

1) Based on LifeDrive concept - combine low overall weight for maximized range with generous levels of space, supreme driving characteristics and high safety levels

5 ILLUSTRATIVE

COMMENTS

BMW i3 and i8 – extensive usage of carbon fiber

> Two separate, independent functional units1)

– Drive Module: made mainly of aluminum – integrates eDrive, suspension, structural and crash functions

– Life Module: made from Carbon-fiber-reinforced-plastics (CFRP) – high strength and extremely light-weight passenger cell

> CFRP usage ensures Life module is extremely light and helps improve range and performance

> Production site for CFRP at Landshut, Germany inaugurated on March 2012 – Plant to produce ultra-lightweight carbon parts that

will compose 1/3rd of body components for BMW

> Sustainability in the interior – Use of natural fibers and naturally tanned leather – 25% of weight of interior plastic accounted for by

recycled or renewable raw materials


OEMs are facing the differentiation dilemma – Counter-balancing increasing number of models while mastering complexity


Create innovative, appealing products

> Increase differentiation and brand image

> Cover all niche segments and create new ones

> Region or country-specific models to suit local preferences

> Increase customer value and willingness to pay premium

Master complexity

> Shorter development lead time

> Quicker market launch

> Simultaneous introduction in several markets

> Improved quality

> Reduced costs

Maximize "Return-on-development"


Goal: Balance need for product differentiation while reducing component proliferation and safeguarding regulatory etc. constraints


100%

Dis

tin

ctiv

enes

s (q

ualit

ativ

e)

Poor OEM's standardization strategy

Products are very different and share many elements

Products are not very different and share only few elements

Ideal OEM's standardization strategy '12

PRODUCT ROADMAP '13 '14 '15 …

Pro

du

cts

Features Product

A

Product

B

Product

C

K L M

DIFFERENTIATION

Module Product

A

Product

B

Product

C

X Y Z

COMMONALITY

How different do the products need to be

to appeal to our target segment?

Which elements are uniform and how do the other individual

elements differ?

Goal:

Consistency

100%

Ideal standardization strategy of OEMs

Commonly used elements [%]


Various approaches are being considered to strike the balance between differentiation and standardization


A

B C

Novel processes and technologies

Flexible manufacturing

Standardization and modularization

Solving the differentiation

dilemma


Novel processes and technologies will be increasingly used going forward


A NOVEL PROCESSES AND TECHNOLOGIES

Precision and flexible manufacturing technology

1

Zero defect manufacturing

2

Recycling and remanufacturing

3


Laser technology

Adaptive welding

New manufacturing technologies and processes are increasingly being adopted by OEMs and suppliers

Source: Business press, Roland Berger

A 1 ILLUSTRATIVE

Examples of newer processes

COMMENTS

> Laser technology for joining light metals, plastics etc. – Allows shrinking flange by half , narrower A

pillars: better visibility – Reduction in number of flanges: cost and

weight reduction – Higher reliability: uptime >98% – Continuous welds: better stiffness and strength – Lower maintenance

> Adaptive welding (i.e. continuously adapting welding parameters ensuring optimum quality) to minimize impact of corrosion

> Innovative chemical processes: low volatile organic compound (VOC) paint process, dry coating for batteries, etc.

Innovative chemical processes


Remote laser welding is used to assemble doors for Audi A4 and Q5 ensuring narrower flange and maximizing viewing angle

> Objective – Reduce the flange width to ensure maximum

viewing angle (welding flange < 6mm)

> Challenge – Traditional spot welding cannot weld narrow

pieces

> Solution – Laser welding

> Benefits – Fast (upto 46 welds in 12 seconds) – Highly efficient – Enables narrower welding flanges on the

inside of the door frames resulting in ~60 grams lower weight per door

Source: Audi company report; Nu Tech

BACKUP – ILLUSTRATIVE

Example: Laser welding

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/de/b/b2/Audi-Logo_2009.png


2-D and 3-D in-line inspection technologies will ensure high productivity, greater efficiency and complete quality assurance


A 2

Examples of In-line inspection technologies

COMMENTS

> Use of in-line inspection will increase with increasing level of automation

> While optical (or sonic) non-contact in-line inspection tools will become universally popular, local regulation will influence the proliferation of X-ray based technologies

> Inline inspection can be used in: – Body shop – Paint line – Assembly line – Engine line, etc.

In-line 2-D inspection

In-line 3-D inspection


Recycling and remanufacturing are going to be the key issues in product design going forward, for cost and sustainability reasons

Source: Toyota Europe Recycling Brochure, Roland Berger

A 3

Recycling and remanufacturing

COMMENTS

> At present, a maximum of 75-80% of vehicle weight (mostly metal) is recycled in developed economies. The remaining 20-25% in weight, consisting mainly of a mix of materials such as resins, rubber, glass, textile, etc., is still discarded

> Product design needs to incorporate recycling and remanufacturing through: – Use of easy to recycle materials – Innovations in vehicle structure – Development of efficient sorting and

recycling processes

> Choice of materials and manufacturing processes (especially joining methods) heavily determines recycling/re-manufacturing possibilities


Flexible manufacturing processes help adjust output according to market demand

Source: Primary interviews, Business press, Roland Berger

B FLEXIBLE MANUFACTURING

Advantages of flexible manufacturing

1st Ford facility with single flexible production line manufacturing petrol and diesel engines

Example: Ford factory at Chennai

Lower investment per unit produced

Faster change-over time

Lower in-process inventory

Modify output mix based on market demand

Better labor productivity and machine efficiency

1

2

3

4

5


Platform rationalizations are currently being actively pursued by all leading OEMs – Platform leverage is increasing

Source: Business press, IHS-Global Insight, Morgan Stanley, Roland Berger

More volume on fewer platforms

Examples of major OEMs

C STANDARDIZATION AND MODULARIZATION

> Currently 30 platforms, only 8 are core (global) and account for ~30% volume

> Plans to discontinue regional platforms by 2018 and concentrate on 14 core platforms with 90% volumes

> Plans to reduce number of platforms to 9 by end 2013 – 5 global & 4 regional

> These will together account for 85% of global volumes

> Plans to reduce number of platforms for all its brands to 4 – NSF, MQB, MLB and MSF

> 95% volumes targeted from 3 global platforms by 2020

> Plans to reduce vehicle architectures to 3 by 2015, while doubling the number of model variants to 30

Global OEM average platform leverage

['000 units per platform]

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

2014e 2018e 2019e 2017e 2015e 2011 2013e 2012e 2016e


Module approach is the most sophisticated standardization strategy, combining various levers at each module architecture level



Standardization levers Module architecture levels

> Standard modular architecture : – Fixed and standard interface – Volume/packaging constraints – Pre-define anchor points

> (…)

> Optimal definition of "envelop specification" to cover several models/variants of the vehicle range

> Function re-allocations within sub-modules > Similar module concepts/architectures > Reduce technology diversity > (…)

> Standard parts/material (basis component) > Scalable parts (homothetic designs) > Component diversity reduction > (…)

MODULE GLOBAL

ARCHITECTURE

(Vehicle)

SUB-MODULES

(e.g. heater,

compressor,

circuit)

MODULES

(e.g. HVAC)

COMPONENTS

(e.g. fans,

screws)


Progressive standardization strategies are being followed – From simple carryover to modular approaches



PRODUCT oriented standardization

PROCESS oriented standardization

> Scope : basic components > Principle : common use of the same

component across range or for model renewal in order to reduce development and increase commonality

> Governance : standardization plans managed by technical departments or by projects with cross functional teams

> Scope : common technical parameters for several models (unperceived underbody)

> Principle : use of platforms (base vehicle), covering the maximum amount of common parts and shared between different models across different brands

> Governance : engineering organization according to technical platforms

> Scope : complex systems or subsystems dedicated to an entire function

> Principle : vehicle structure divided into modules, sharing common interfaces and base components (both standard) and further differentiated within variants

> Governance : modular architecture organization

> Principle : – Standard plant geographic arrangement – Same manufacturing management processes – Common production tools

> Scope : manufacturing process > Governance :

manufacturing standards force product commonality

OEM

positioning

Transverse components 1 Platform strategy 2 Module approach 3

A1 A2

B1

Most advanced OEM


Several OEMs are at various stages on the modularization curve


Most advanced OEMs

Principle: same component across

range or for model renewal in order

to spare development and increase

community

Principle: platforms with maximal

common parts between different

models & brands

Principle: vehicle structure divided into

modules, sharing standards interfaces

and base components and further

differentiated within variants

PR

OD

UC

T S

TAN

DA

RD

IZA

TIO

N I

MP

AC

T

Cross-platform complex components sharing

Platform - wide complex components sharing

Simple components sharing

Carry-over approaches 1 Platform approaches 2 Module approaches 3



NSF = New Small Family Kit, MQB = Modular Transversal Kit, MLB = Modular Longitudinal Kit

Drivetrain Suspension Equipment Electric Modular Toolbox

Modular Design System

Segments (vehicle classes)

Emerging markets

Established markets

Mini Luxury &

sports

MLB

MQB

NSF

MPV/SUV Upper

medium Medium

Compact mini

Small Lower

medium

Volkswagen is using a Modular Design System to enable it to meet its ambitious global leadership aspirations

C STANDARDIZATION AND MODULARIZATION – ILLUSTRATIVE



Modularization allows more flexibility – typically only distance between front axle and pedal box, and engine positioning is fixed

Source: Morgan Stanley, Roland Berger

MQB (Modular Transverse Matrix Platform)

MLB (Modular Longitudinal Platform)



Modular design to be leveraged across all VW Group brands – 4.6 m units production estimated by 2019 on MQB

Source: Morgan Stanley, IHS-Global Insight


435 421 418 413383

386 559739 714 676

512

617

832 970

945

40

443

1

120

122120

90

46

275

245

98

10

VW Passat

VW Tiguan+Touran

Skoda Octavia

VW Golf

Audi A3

VW Jetta

Skoda Superb

Audi Q3

VW Lavida NF

Others

2018

4,236

310

810

482

371

2017

4,118

315

841

498

355

2016

3,514

312

826

514

175

2015

2,942

317

901

376 15

2014

1,939

312

895

44

4,610

291

981

456

363

118

2013

1,108

226

650

134

2012

174

123

2019

MQB estimated volumes1) by product ['000 units of production]

1) These are IHS projections. VW estimates are more aggressive with 2m units of MQB volume by 2014 and 4m units by 2016


Lower weight and emissions

The MQB platform is projected to generate savings1) of EUR 14 bn by 2019, with net tailwind of EUR 2 bn in 2013 earnings

Source: Morgan Stanley

1) Estimated 2) Likely reflects reduced R&D development expense of developing fewer platforms, as well as capex efficiency in using identical machinery across more models


MQB benefits

Flexible powertrain

Capex and R&D efficiency

Global cost, local taste

Unit costs -20%

Faster & more flexible production

1

2

3

4

6

5

Comments on benefits

> VW estimates purchasing cost savings of 20% on MQB toolkit > Since purchasing accounts for 50-60% of cost base of a vehicle, it could

mean 10-12% total gross cost saving

> VW estimates 20% lower "one-off" expenditure2) under MQB > Development times for new models can be up to 30% faster

> Assembly times are faster, 20-30% faster line speeds possible > Production is also flexible, lines can switch easily between products to meet

demand or supply patterns

> MQB supports gasoline and diesel engines, as well as hybrid and pure EV powertrains

> Can vary product to regional taste while capitalizing on its global scale > e.g. alter length or change specifications to better suit market demands

> VW claims MQB also reduces vehicle weight and emissions > e.g. new Audi A3, first car on MQB, is ~21% lighter than its predecesor


Other collaborative methods between manufacturers are also being increasingly pursued – Luxury car makers too entering the fold


> Joint production in India – Maruti Suzuki's A-Star is sold as Nissan Pixo and Suzuki Alto/Celerio in export markets

> This co-operation model eliminates Nissan's need to set up a smaller production unit which is not economically justified

> Engines to be produced at Nissan's Tennessee factory from 2014 – to be used for MB and Infinity

> Evaluating joint production of compact Mercedes cars and Inifiniti cars in Eastern Europe starting 2016

> BMW to produce Mini at Mitsubishi's Nedcar plant in Limburg, Netherlands, from end 2014

> Expected to produce 60,000-90,000 Mini cars at the plant till 2020


OEMs are re-positioning through targeted co-operation in the upstream, downstream and core business

Source: MBtech Group, Daimler AG

Key motivators

Better access to new markets and segments …

More speed and faster time-to-market …

Lower cost and investments …

… building on the market position of the partner

… through access to technology and a faster learning curve

… through leveraging skills and competencies


Plant layout can be designed for modular manufacturing, improving efficiencies even further

Modular plant structures Modular product structures

Source: MBtech Group, Daimler AG


Manufacturing strategy changes have stakeholder implications – Select OEMs started corresponding supplier programs


Modular policy

Purchasing policy

Supplier relationship

program

> Definition of cross projects transversal components and freeze of interfaces

> Significant reduction of component and technology diversity (variants number, technologies, architectures…)

> Longer life duration of modules between 2 generations (longer series)

> Wider geographical share of components and technologies (global awards)

> Increase of tenders perimeter and reduction of supplier panel (if no supplier doubling)

> Need to select and integrate the supplier much earlier with a complex dilemma about how to choose him and how to fix the price

> Reduction of pure competition levers and potential reinforcement of OEM vs suppliers mutual dependency

> Opportunity for multi-millions volume effects

> Earlier involvement & co-development to share latest innovation/platforms

> Potentially new relation types with supplier especially the most inter-dependant (LTAs, pre-selection, co-innovation, co-development, co-design to cost…)

> Higher transparency and confidence that could lead to pre-award models and cost structure based award

Aligned Business Framework (ABF)

Excellence de la Relation Fournisseur (ERF)

Purchasing 2015 (Module readiness Audit process)

EXAMPLE

Supplier relation programs

ILLUSTRATIVE


Manufacturing strategies are evolving and becoming critical to address top-line and bottom-line issues


Key takeaways

Challenges in auto market are increasing – driven by shifting customer preferences, regulations and technology

Manufacturing strategy of OEMs need to strike the right balance between increasing need for more models and standardization

New technologies, processes and materials will increasingly dominate auto manufacturing going forward

Standardization approaches such as sharing components, platform rationalization and facility sharing between OEMs will increase further

Modularization is amongst the most advanced standardization techniques – currently pursued by few leading OEMs, many others to follow suit

Manufacturing strategies have impact on suppliers and relationships with other stakeholders – need to be considered holistically

34 Manufacturing presentation_Roland_Berger_Dr.Wilfried_Aulbur.pptx mb-wallpaper.de

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