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  • Australia’s health and medical research workforce Expert people providing exceptional returns

    The Australian Society for Medical Research

    19 October 2016

  • Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. © 2016 Deloitte Access Economics Pty Ltd

    Dr Roger Yazbek Executive Director The Australian Society for Medical Research Level 7, Suite 702, 37 Bligh Street Sydney NSW 2000

    19 October 2016

    Dear Roger,

    Australia’s health and medical research workforce: Expert people providing exceptional returns

    Please find attached our final report which quantifies the value of the NHMRC funded health and medical research workforce in Australia. The results highlight the associated impact on Australia’s ability to respond to future health challenges through medical research associated with declines in the workforce, and conversely, the increased returns if funding for health and medical research increased.

    Please contact me if you would like to discuss any aspect of the report – we would be happy to elaborate as needed.

    Yours sincerely,

    Lynne Pezzullo Lead Partner, Health Economics and Social Policy, Deloitte Access Economics Pty Ltd Office Managing Partner, Canberra, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

    Deloitte Access Economics Pty Ltd ACN: 149 633 116

    8 Brindabella Cct

    Brindabella Business Park

    Canberra Airport, ACT 2609

    GPO Box 823

    Canberra, ACT, 2601

    Tel: +61 2 6263 7000

    Fax: +61 2 6263 7004

    www.deloitte.com.au

  • Australia’s health and medical research workforce

    Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/au/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms. © 2016 Deloitte Access Economics Pty Ltd

    Contents Glossary .................................................................................................................................... a

    Acknowledgements................................................................................................................... b

    Abstract .................................................................................................................................... c

    Executive summary .................................................................................................................... i

    1 Background ..................................................................................................................... 1

    2 Methodology .................................................................................................................. 3

    2.1 Attributing health gains to NHMRC funded health and medical R&D.................................. 3

    2.2 Measuring NHMRC, Australian and world output – bibliometric analysis ........................... 5

    2.3 NHMRC funding and workforce ....................................................................................... 11

    2.4 Associations between NHMRC funding, workforce and output ........................................ 18

    2.5 Projection of funding, workforce and output ................................................................... 21

    3 Quantifying the change in health outcomes .................................................................. 24

    3.1 Methods for quantifying gains in wellbeing ..................................................................... 24

    3.2 Calculating the total DALYs averted ................................................................................. 26

    3.3 The value of gains in wellbeing ........................................................................................ 27

    3.4 Quantifying avoided health system costs, indirect costs and commercial gains ................ 27

    4 Historical net benefits from NHMRC health and medical workforce and R&D output .... 29

    4.1 Methodology and results ................................................................................................ 29

    4.2 Sensitivity analysis .......................................................................................................... 32

    5 Forward looking investment model ............................................................................... 39

    5.1 Methodology and results ................................................................................................ 39

    5.2 Sensitivity analysis .......................................................................................................... 41

    6 Recommendations ........................................................................................................ 49

    References .............................................................................................................................. 50

    Appendix A : Detailed results .................................................................................................. 53

    Limitation of our work ............................................................................................................ 57

    Charts Chart 2.1 : NHMRC supported health and medical research publications, 2002-2012 ................ 6

    Chart 2.2 : Australian health and medical research publications, 2002-2012 ............................. 7

    Chart 2.3 : World health and medical research publications, 2002-2012.................................... 8

  • Australia’s health and medical research workforce

    ii Commercial-in-Confidence

    Deloitte Access Economics

    Chart 2.4 : NHMRC real expenditure, $ million, 2000-2015 ...................................................... 12

    Chart 2.5 : NHMRC supported expenditure by condition ......................................................... 12

    Chart 2.6 : Health and medical research workforce (FTEs), 2002-2015..................................... 15

    Chart 2.7 : Health and medical research workforce composition (headcount) ......................... 16

    Chart 2.8 : Total PSPs receiving funding from project grants (headcount and FTEs) ................. 16

    Chart 2.9 : Flow of NHMRC project grant supported workforce (headcount and FTEs)............. 17

    Chart 2.10 : Relationship between workforce and NHMRC supported expenditure ................. 18

    Chart 2.11 : Relationship between NHMRC output and workforce .......................................... 19

    Chart 2.12 : Workforce productivity and composition, 2002-2012 ........................................... 20

    Chart 2.13 : Number of FTE workers for every $1 million funding in real terms ....................... 22

    Chart 2.14 : Publication output per FTE worker ....................................................................... 23

    Chart 4.1 : NHMRC funding, workforce and output, 2000-2015 ............................................... 30

    Chart 4.2 : Proportion of total health benefits attributed to NHMRC health and medical research workforce, 2000-2015 .............................................................................................. 31

    Chart 4.3 : BCR of workforce returns in the base case, detailed causes, 2000-2015 ................. 32

    Chart 4.4 : Example workforce change for a 20% decline in the health and medical research workforce, 2000-2015 ............................................................................................................. 33

    Chart 4.5 : Health benefits attributed to NHMRC health and medical research output for a 20% decline in workforce, 2000-2015 ............................................................................................. 34

    Chart 4.6 : BCR of workforce returns by scenario, all causes, 2000-2015 ................................. 35

    Chart 4.7 : Share of health benefits attributed to the NHMRC health and medical research workforce by R&D returns, 2000-2015 .................................................................................... 37

    Chart 4.8 : BCR of workforce returns by scenario, all causes, 2000-2015 ................................. 38

    Chart 5.1 : Projected NHMRC funding, workforce and output, 2016-2025 ............................... 39

    Chart 5.2 : Projected share of health returns attributable to the NHMRC health and medical research workforce, 2016-2025 .............................................................................................. 40

    Chart 5.3 : BCR of workforce returns in the base case, detailed causes, 2016-2025 ................. 41

    Chart 5.4 : Estimated workforce for each investment model, 2016-2025 ................................. 42

    Chart 5.5 : Share of health benefits attributed to the NHMRC health and medical research workforce under each investment model, 2016-2025 ............................................................. 43

    Chart 5.6 : BCR of workforce returns by scenario, all causes, 2016-2025 ................................. 45

    Chart 5.7 : Share of health benefits attributed to the NHMRC health and medical research workforce by R&D returns, 2016-2025 ...........................