austin, tx: state of the economy
TRANSCRIPT
State of the Economy in Austin, Texas
2016 Austin CPA Chapter CFO/Controllers ConferenceSeptember 20, 2016
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Economic Summary: Ludicrous Speed
Source: (Chart) US Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings, Seasonally Adjusted. (Unemployment) BLS, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Not Seasonally Adjusted. (Tech) Emsi, includes self employment. See CompTIA Cyberstates report for tech definition. (GDP) US Bureau of Economic Analysis, inflation adjusted in chained 2009 dollars.
44 consecutive months of total nonfarm job growth at 4.0%+ in Austin-Round Rock MSA on a 12-month % change basis (Aug 2012-March 2016).
3.1% unemployment in city of Austin (July ‘16)—9 out of last 12 months under 3.0%, lowest period since 1999.
Tech employment grew 31% in Austin-Round Rock MSA during 2010-15, fourth highest among MSAs w/ 50K+ tech jobs. Travis County #5 among counties.
Average annual growth in real GDP in Austin-Round Rock MSA was 5.5% during 2010-14.
-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
Total Nonfarm Job Growth in Austin-Round Rock MSA, 12-month % change
Jan‘91
May‘00
Dec‘01
Dec‘03
Mar‘07
Sept‘09
Feb‘10
Nov‘15
Jul‘16
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Economic Summary: Ludicrous Speed
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total real personal income is in chained 2009 dollars and adjusted for regional cost of living differences using BEA’s Regional Price Parities.
Annual Growth Rate in Real GDP (chained 2009 dollars)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
US Metro Portion
Austin MSAMetro Area
GDP Growth2010-14
Dallas-FW 25.4%
San Jose 25.1%
Austin 23.6%
Houston 20.5%
US (Metro) 8.0%
Total real personal income in Austin-Round Rock MSA grew by $15.6 billion in 2010-2014. 22.5% gain ranked 3rd among large metros behind Houston (24.2%) and San Jose (22.5%).
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Rapidly Growing Aggregate Wealth
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total real personal income is in chained 2009 dollars and adjusted for regional cost of living differences using BEA’s Regional Price Parities.
Total Real Personal Income Growth, 2010-2014Top MSAs (all sizes) ranked by percentage growth
San Francisco, CA
Casper, WY
Fargo, ND-MN
Austin, TX
San Jose, CA
Bismarck, ND
Houston, TX
Fayetteville, AR-MO
The Villages, FL
Odessa, TX
Midland, TX
20.9%
21.6%
22.0%
22.5%
22.5%
24.1%
24.2%
31.5%
33.7%
37.4%
52.0%
5Source: Mike Maciag, Governing, The Counties Where Wealthier People Are Moving.
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The Human Capital
City (500K+) 2010 2015 Change Percent
Austin, TX 815,974 931,830 115,856 14.2%
Denver, CO 603,300 682,545 79,245 13.1%
Seattle, WA 610,383 684,451 74,068 12.1%
Charlotte, NC 738,678 827,097 88,419 12.0%
Fort Worth, TX 746,547 833,319 86,772 11.6%
Washington, DC 605,126 672,228 67,102 11.1%
San Antonio, TX 1,333,953 1,469,845 135,892 10.2%
Houston, TX 2,114,761 2,296,224 181,463 8.6%
Oklahoma City, OK 582,118 631,346 49,228 8.5%
Dallas, TX 1,200,699 1,300,092 99,393 8.3%
Nashville, TN 604,926 654,610 49,684 8.2%
Portland, OR 585,427 632,309 46,882 8.0%
City (500K+) Change Percent Earnings
Austin, TX 29,501 36.4% $70,248
Denver, CO 25,629 40.2% $65,481
Seattle, WA 27,062 26.6% $75,482
Charlotte, NC 20,251 33.3% $67,027
Fort Worth, TX 10,213 29.9% $67,830
Washington, DC 43,465 38.7% $84,682
San Antonio, TX 3,880 5.4% $62,540
Houston, TX 30,460 20.8% $72,342
Oklahoma City, OK 10,395 31.0% $60,989
Dallas, TX 16,686 21.1% $75,384
Nashville, TN 11,186 20.5% $55,910
Portland, OR 23,761 36.4% $61,595
Total Population Graduate Degree Holders (Age 25+), 2010-15
Source: (Total Population) US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, July 1 Estimate (accessed 09/15/16). (Graduate Degree Holders) US Census Bureau, 2015 and 2010 American Community Surveys, 1-Year Estimates. Earnings are median earnings, which are calculated as the sum of wage or salary income and net income from self-employment.
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Blame California Florida: Top Origins of Different State Migration to Travis County, 2012-2014
StateTax Returns
HH EstimateExemptions
Ppl EstimateAvg IncomePer Return
FL 30,162 46,911 $55,327
CA 15,503 29,914 $79,887
GA 10,066 18,652 $27,437
NY 9,566 15,669 $53,610
IL 4,686 8,445 $56,493
NC 3,513 7,902 $41,301
AZ 3,403 7,614 $47,945
NJ 4,124 7,502 $45,135
MI 4,026 6,921 $27,489
PA 3,497 5,959 $36,688
TN 2,819 5,639 $32,410
AL 2,211 4,679 $26,785
Source: Internal Revenue Service. Average income is total adjusted gross income divided by the number of returns.
CountyTax Returns
HH EstimateExemptions
Ppl EstimateAvg IncomePer Return
Miami-Dade, FL 8,079 11,780 $25,867
Los Angeles, CA 4,853 8,711 $91,898
Broward, FL 4,347 6,449 $28,492
Hillsborough, FL 3,714 5,696 $21,893
Maricopa, AZ 2,357 5,582 $51,508
Cook, IL 3,137 5,487 $52,968
Bronx, NY 2,390 4,155 $23,895
Fulton, GA 2,580 4,153 $28,097
Wayne, MI 2,148 3,685 $19,277
Palm Beach, FL 2,036 3,187 $31,003
Riverside, CA 1,052 3,008 $32,375
Orange, FL 1,725 2,986 $31,551
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#1 San Francisco124%
#2 Wake48%
#3 New York45%
#4 San Mateo39%
#5 Travis30%
Tech Sector Employment Growth, 2010-15 – Top Five Counties (minimum 50K tech jobs)
Source: Emsi, includes self employment. See CompTIA Cyberstates report for tech definition.
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#1 San Francisco149%
#3 Dallas55%
#5 Maricopa45%
#4 Alameda55%
#2 Travis115%
Computer Systems Design & Related Services Employment Growth, 2010-15 – Top Five Counties (minimum 20K jobs)Mobile, Apps, SaaS
Source: Emsi, includes self employment. See CompTIA Cyberstates report for more on tech. Earnings include wages, salaries, supplements (additional employee benefits), and proprietor income.
Average earnings in Travis County are $119,596.
10Source: Startup Compass, 2015 Global Startup Ecosystem Ranking.
11http://www.arma-tx.org/about/austin-manufacturing
Manufacturing employment in
Austin-Round Rock MSA grew by 21%
during 2010-15 and is now back to pre-
recession levels.
12Source: Kauffman Foundation, Kauffman Index, Metropolitan Area Rankings for Startup Activity.
% of adult population who became entrepreneurs in a given month
Austin 0.60%
% of new entrepreneurs who were not unemployed before starting business
Austin 79.88%
Number of startup firms (< 1 yr old w/ at least one employee besides owner)
per 1,000 firm populationAustin 105.2
13Source: Kauffman Foundation, Kauffman Index, Metropolitan Area Rankings for Startup Activity.
1. Miami 8.69%
2. Nashville 8.12%
3. Portland 8.02%
4. Austin 7.97%
5. LA 7.76%
14Source: Kauffman Foundation, Kauffman Index, Entrepreneurial Demographics, Austin-Round Rock MSA Profile.
Austin is top 5 in:
Female Biz Owners (#4)Age 20-34 Biz Owners (#3)Age 55-64 Biz Owners (#2)
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Can we leverage city’s successful startup culture to achieve inclusive/equitable economic growth?
Source: US Census Bureau, 2012 Survey of Business Owners. *Includes all firms classifiable by gender, ethnicity, race, and veteran status and not total universe of firms (e.g., no publicly held firms).
Ownership Average Sales With Employees Average Pay
Asian $398,063 29% $35,171
Male $673,168 23% $44,219
White $501,880 20% $42,141
Female $150,694 12% $31,600
Hispanic $103,386 8% $34,105
Black $111,324 7% $25,813
All Firms* $456,346 19% $41,441
Characteristics of Business Owners in Austin (city), 2012
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Challenges
• Inclusive prosperity—45% of primary working age (25-64) city residents do not have a postsecondary degree.
• When will housing costs in urban core start to erode competitive advantage relative to pricey coastal markets?
• Trying to tackle big-city/regional issues with small-city/local toolkit.
Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates.
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No HS Diploma
HS Diploma
SC/Associate
Bachelor
Graduate
$21,713
$26,221
$35,306
$50,379
$70,248
$543/month
Explaining economic segregation in Austin (city)
Median Earnings and Maximum Affordable Housing Costs for Workers Age 25+ by Education Attainment
Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates. Asian, White (Not Hispanic or Latino), and Black are race alone categories and Hispanic/Latino is any race. Housing affordability is defined as spending less than or equal to 30% of income on total housing costs (rent or mortgage, utilities, etc.). SC is Some College.
$1,259/month
$883/month
$656/month
$1,756/month
Hispanic/Latino
Black
White
Asian
25%
33%
69%
78%
% Pop Age 25+ by Race/Ethnicitywith a Postsecondary Degree
Income
Asian $110,069
White $108,413
Hispanic/Latino $45,614
Black $43,685
Median Family Incomeby Race/Ethnicity
Budget
Asian $2,752
White $2,710
Hispanic/Latino $1,140
Black $1,092
Max Affordable Monthly Housing Costs
Median Gross Rent (Housing Cost) for 2BR: $1,243
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