august 3, 2021 cox automotive auto market report · 2021. 8. 3. · auto market report translating...
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![Page 1: August 3, 2021 COX AUTOMOTIVE AUTO MARKET REPORT · 2021. 8. 3. · AUTO MARKET REPORT Translating Data and Trends intoActionable Insights August 3, 2021. COVID-19 DAILY CASE AND](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022071517/613ac7a7f8f21c0c8268a176/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
COX AUTOMOTIVE AUTO MARKET REPORT
Translating Data and Trends into Actionable Insights
August 3, 2021
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COVID-19 DAILY CASE AND VACCINATION TRENDS
Source: Cox Automotive
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CONTINUING CLAIMS AT 3.3 MILLION NATIONALLY
Source: Department of Labor
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ACTIVITY DECREASED LAST WEEK BUT FULLY RECOVERED IN SEVERAL STATES
Source: Moody’s Analytics and CNN Business
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CONSUMER SENTIMENT DECLINED LAST WEEKMorning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment on Monday was down 17.3% since February 29, 2020
Source: Morning Consult
113.3
81.23
89.53
101.08100.16 99.96
94.12
93.72
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1/1/20 2/1/20 3/1/20 4/1/20 5/1/20 6/1/20 7/1/20 8/1/20 9/1/20 10/1/20 11/1/20 12/1/20 1/1/21 2/1/21 3/1/21 4/1/21 5/1/21 6/1/21 7/1/21 8/1/21
ICS Value (7-Day Average)
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SENTIMENT SHIFTS ACROSS MARKETS
Since February 29, 2020 Since July 26, 2021
Source: Morning Consult
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RETAIL SALES ESTIMATES
Source: Cox Automotive
-60.0%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
2021 and 2020 % Change vs. 2019 in Retail Sales by Week
New Y/Y 20 Used Y/Y 20 New 21/19 Used 21/19
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ZERO PERCENT FINANCING DOWN TO END JULY
Source: Cox Automotive
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-19
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Jul-
20
Au
g-2
0
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
No
v-20
Dec
-20
Jan
-21
Feb
-21
Mar
-21
Ap
r-2
1
May
-21
Jun
-21
Jul-
21
0% APR Finance Share
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RETAIL INVENTORY IMPROVING FOR USED
Source: Cox Automotive
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
New Days’ Supply
2019 2020 2021
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
Used Days’ Supply
2019 2020 2021
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RETAIL USED PRICES NOW DECLINING
Source: Cox Automotive
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
130%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
MY 2018 Retail and Wholesale Price Index
2020 Retail Index 2021 Retail Index 2020 Wholesale Index 2021 Wholesale Index
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SALES IMPACT VARIES BY DMA AS EVIDENCED BY UNIQUE CREDIT APPS
April 5, 2020 (vs same-week 2019) August 1, 2021 (vs same-week 2019)
Source: Cox Automotive
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COX AUTOMOTIVE LEADING INDICATORS
• Leads in July on Autotrader were down 15% y/y and on Kelley Blue Book were up 17%; compared to 2019, both were up. Leads declined in July from June on Autotrader but increased on Kelley Blue Book.
• Dealertrack unique credit applications on same-store basis were down 13% y/y and down 22% against 2019 last week, and the weekly trend improved slightly
• Xtime saw completed service appointments unchanged y/y last week; against 2019, appointments completed were down 11%, and the weekly trend declined slightly
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