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COX AUTOMOTIVE AUTO MARKET REPORT Translating Data and Trends into Actionable Insights August 3, 2021

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Page 1: August 3, 2021 COX AUTOMOTIVE AUTO MARKET REPORT · 2021. 8. 3. · AUTO MARKET REPORT Translating Data and Trends intoActionable Insights August 3, 2021. COVID-19 DAILY CASE AND

COX AUTOMOTIVE AUTO MARKET REPORT

Translating Data and Trends into Actionable Insights

August 3, 2021

Page 2: August 3, 2021 COX AUTOMOTIVE AUTO MARKET REPORT · 2021. 8. 3. · AUTO MARKET REPORT Translating Data and Trends intoActionable Insights August 3, 2021. COVID-19 DAILY CASE AND

COVID-19 DAILY CASE AND VACCINATION TRENDS

Source: Cox Automotive

Page 3: August 3, 2021 COX AUTOMOTIVE AUTO MARKET REPORT · 2021. 8. 3. · AUTO MARKET REPORT Translating Data and Trends intoActionable Insights August 3, 2021. COVID-19 DAILY CASE AND

CONTINUING CLAIMS AT 3.3 MILLION NATIONALLY

Source: Department of Labor

Page 4: August 3, 2021 COX AUTOMOTIVE AUTO MARKET REPORT · 2021. 8. 3. · AUTO MARKET REPORT Translating Data and Trends intoActionable Insights August 3, 2021. COVID-19 DAILY CASE AND

ACTIVITY DECREASED LAST WEEK BUT FULLY RECOVERED IN SEVERAL STATES

Source: Moody’s Analytics and CNN Business

Page 5: August 3, 2021 COX AUTOMOTIVE AUTO MARKET REPORT · 2021. 8. 3. · AUTO MARKET REPORT Translating Data and Trends intoActionable Insights August 3, 2021. COVID-19 DAILY CASE AND

CONSUMER SENTIMENT DECLINED LAST WEEKMorning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment on Monday was down 17.3% since February 29, 2020

Source: Morning Consult

113.3

81.23

89.53

101.08100.16 99.96

94.12

93.72

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1/1/20 2/1/20 3/1/20 4/1/20 5/1/20 6/1/20 7/1/20 8/1/20 9/1/20 10/1/20 11/1/20 12/1/20 1/1/21 2/1/21 3/1/21 4/1/21 5/1/21 6/1/21 7/1/21 8/1/21

ICS Value (7-Day Average)

Page 6: August 3, 2021 COX AUTOMOTIVE AUTO MARKET REPORT · 2021. 8. 3. · AUTO MARKET REPORT Translating Data and Trends intoActionable Insights August 3, 2021. COVID-19 DAILY CASE AND

SENTIMENT SHIFTS ACROSS MARKETS

Since February 29, 2020 Since July 26, 2021

Source: Morning Consult

Page 7: August 3, 2021 COX AUTOMOTIVE AUTO MARKET REPORT · 2021. 8. 3. · AUTO MARKET REPORT Translating Data and Trends intoActionable Insights August 3, 2021. COVID-19 DAILY CASE AND

RETAIL SALES ESTIMATES

Source: Cox Automotive

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

2021 and 2020 % Change vs. 2019 in Retail Sales by Week

New Y/Y 20 Used Y/Y 20 New 21/19 Used 21/19

Page 8: August 3, 2021 COX AUTOMOTIVE AUTO MARKET REPORT · 2021. 8. 3. · AUTO MARKET REPORT Translating Data and Trends intoActionable Insights August 3, 2021. COVID-19 DAILY CASE AND

ZERO PERCENT FINANCING DOWN TO END JULY

Source: Cox Automotive

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-19

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-20

Dec

-20

Jan

-21

Feb

-21

Mar

-21

Ap

r-2

1

May

-21

Jun

-21

Jul-

21

0% APR Finance Share

Page 9: August 3, 2021 COX AUTOMOTIVE AUTO MARKET REPORT · 2021. 8. 3. · AUTO MARKET REPORT Translating Data and Trends intoActionable Insights August 3, 2021. COVID-19 DAILY CASE AND

RETAIL INVENTORY IMPROVING FOR USED

Source: Cox Automotive

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50

New Days’ Supply

2019 2020 2021

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50

Used Days’ Supply

2019 2020 2021

Page 10: August 3, 2021 COX AUTOMOTIVE AUTO MARKET REPORT · 2021. 8. 3. · AUTO MARKET REPORT Translating Data and Trends intoActionable Insights August 3, 2021. COVID-19 DAILY CASE AND

RETAIL USED PRICES NOW DECLINING

Source: Cox Automotive

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

125%

130%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52

MY 2018 Retail and Wholesale Price Index

2020 Retail Index 2021 Retail Index 2020 Wholesale Index 2021 Wholesale Index

Page 11: August 3, 2021 COX AUTOMOTIVE AUTO MARKET REPORT · 2021. 8. 3. · AUTO MARKET REPORT Translating Data and Trends intoActionable Insights August 3, 2021. COVID-19 DAILY CASE AND

SALES IMPACT VARIES BY DMA AS EVIDENCED BY UNIQUE CREDIT APPS

April 5, 2020 (vs same-week 2019) August 1, 2021 (vs same-week 2019)

Source: Cox Automotive

Page 12: August 3, 2021 COX AUTOMOTIVE AUTO MARKET REPORT · 2021. 8. 3. · AUTO MARKET REPORT Translating Data and Trends intoActionable Insights August 3, 2021. COVID-19 DAILY CASE AND

COX AUTOMOTIVE LEADING INDICATORS

• Leads in July on Autotrader were down 15% y/y and on Kelley Blue Book were up 17%; compared to 2019, both were up. Leads declined in July from June on Autotrader but increased on Kelley Blue Book.

• Dealertrack unique credit applications on same-store basis were down 13% y/y and down 22% against 2019 last week, and the weekly trend improved slightly

• Xtime saw completed service appointments unchanged y/y last week; against 2019, appointments completed were down 11%, and the weekly trend declined slightly

Page 13: August 3, 2021 COX AUTOMOTIVE AUTO MARKET REPORT · 2021. 8. 3. · AUTO MARKET REPORT Translating Data and Trends intoActionable Insights August 3, 2021. COVID-19 DAILY CASE AND