august 17, 2011 reliability deployments task force meeting updated analysis of non-spin deployments...

August 17, 2011

Reliability Deployments Task Force Meeting

Updated Analysis of Non-Spin Deployments and RUC

John DumasDirector Wholesale Market Operations

2

Outline of Presentation

• July 13 & July 18 : Results of SCED Re-Run: LSL=0, LDL recalculated for different “floor” scenarios

• August 8, 2011: Non-Spin Deployment• Summary of August 8 Non-Spin Deployment• Discussion of Adjusting Non-Spin Deployment and Recall• Discussion of Adjusting RUC Approach

August 17, 2011 Reliability Deployments Task Force Meeting

3

July 13 & July 18 : Results of SCED Re-Run: LSL=0, LDL recalculated for different “floor” scenarios

August 17, 2011

July 13: FIP=4.41 July 18: FIP=4.445

System Lambda@14:35 Before Non-Spin Deployment

System Lambda@14:55 - After Non-Spin Deployment



Sum(HDL)-GTBD=459 MW (New)= -7 MW (Original)

Sum(HDL)-GTBD=505 MW (New)=505 MW (Original)

Sum(HDL)-GTBD=335 MW (New)=280 MW (Original)

Sum(HDL)-GTBD=1149 MW (New)=1149 MW(Original)

Original LSL

OFFNS LSL=0LDL recalc

Original LSL

OFFNS LSL=0,LDL recalc

Original – No change

$2999.99 $76.79 $76.80 $267.75 $63.35 $64.61

Original – Only online HASL/HDL changed, NO floor

$92.88 $76.79 $76.80 $62.54 $63.35 $64.61

Low Floor $81.28 $83.61 $186.15 $85.08 $80.92 $93.52

Med Floor-1$500

$500 $500 $500 $475.57 $80.92 $472.08

Med Floor-2$1000

$1000 $1000 $1000 $968.96 $80.92 $967.59

High Floor$3000

$3000 $3000 $3000 $2968.95 $80.93 $2967.58


4

August 8, 2011: Non-Spin Deployment

August 17, 2011

All Non-Spin deployed at 14:56 in the amount of 1540.70 MW Continued All Non-Spin deployment at 17:02 in the amount of 1626.74 MWAll Non-Spin recalled at 18:41

@14:56, of the total 1540.7 MW of Non-Spin Responsibility, 1103 MW Non-Spin ALREADY available to SCED from Online QSGR.

•Between 14:52 and 15:56 - PRC went below 2500.

•Between 17:00 and 18:00 PRC went below 2500.•Between 14:25 and 17:30 the Avail_CAP_30MIN went below 1000 MW

(negative for some 5 minute intervals) and HDL-GTBD went below 200 after 16:10 (29.11 MW @16:52)

•Load Forecast for HE 15 = 64464 MW





5

August 8, 2011: Non-Spin Deployment

August 17, 2011

•Telem Non-Spin Responsibility @14:55=1540



•@14:55 System_Lambda=$725.83

•@15:25 System_Lambda=$60.13

•Load increase from 14:55 to 15:25 = 564.9 MW

•LSL injection from OFFNS resources from 14:55 to 15:25 =

0 (“OFFNS” QSGR) + 101 (“OFFNS” Non-QSGR) = 101 MW


6

August 8, 2011: Non-Spin Deployment (continued)

August 17, 2011

@14:55 LSL Non-Spin Responsibility

“ON” Non-QSGR 990 306.7

“OFFNS” Non-QSGR 101 131, HSL=277

“ON” QSGR 284 1103 (TelemMW=294.92, HSL=1104.8)

“OFFNS” QSGR 0 0

“OFF” Non-QSGR that came online by 15:25

85 0 (80 MW were ONRUC)

“OFF” QSGR that came online by 15:25

0 0

•Note 1: All are telemetry values at 14:55 (before Non-Spin Deployment)•Note 2: The total HSL from “OFF” Generation Resources that came online = 206 MW


7



8


August 17, 2011

OFFNS Non-QSGR resources carrying Non-Spin:Aggregated EOC from LSL to HSL


9


August 17, 2011

Online Non-QSGR resources carrying Non-Spin:Aggregated EOC from HASL to HASL+Non-Spin


10

Summary of August 8 Non-Spin Deployment

August 17, 2011

•Price is $725.83 just before Non-Spin Deployment •Note all QSGR are online.

•Price reduction 30 minutes after Non-Spin deployed is due to additional EOC available to SCED at low price.


11

August 8: Results of SCED Re-Run for different “floor” scenarios

August 17, 2011

August 8: FIP=$3.965/MMBtu



Sum(HDL)-GTBD=843 MW (New)= 418.4 MW (Original)

Sum(HDL)-GTBD=778.83 MW (New)=778.83 MW (Original)

Original LSL OFFNS LSL=0LDL recalc

Original – No change $725.83 $60.13 $60.14

Original – Only online HASL/HDL changed, NO floor

$136.40 $60.13 $60.43

Low Floor $136.27 $72.09 $72.09

Med Floor-1$500

$500 $113.24 $202.68

Med Floor-2$1000

$1000 $113.24 $444.41

High Floor$3000

$3000 $113.24 $444.41


12

Current Non-Spin Deployment based on “HDL-GTBD”

1) If HDL – GTBD <= 200 AND Avail_Cap30Min < 1000 MW; >>>> deploy HALF of Non-Spin. (Partial deployment of Non-Spin)

2) If HDL – GTBD <= 200 AND Avail_Cap30Min < 500 MW; >>>> deploy ALL Non-Spin. (Full deployment of Non-Spin)

Avail_Cap30Min = HASL – GTBD – 30MinLoadRamp

30MinLoadRamp=( NextHourLoadForecast – CurrentHourLoadForecast)/2


13

Illustrative Example of Revision to Deployment Based on “HDL-GTBD” (Section 3.4 of RT Desk Operating Procedure )

1) If HDL – GTBD <= 400 AND Avail_Cap30Min < 1000 MW;

Then deploy all of On-Line Non-Spin [Starts earlier with On-Line only]


Then deploy HALF of Off-Line Non-Spin. (Partial deployment of Off-Line Non-Spin)


Then deploy ALL Non-Spin. (Full deployment of Non-Spin)

Avail_Cap30Min = HASL – GTBD – 30MinLoadRamp

30MinLoadRamp=( NextHourLoadForecast – CurrentHourLoadForecast)/2


14

Additionally Current Non-Spin Deployment based on “PRC”

1) If Physical Responsive Capability (PRC) < 2500 MW – deploy enough to recover PRC to 2500 (Partial deployment of Non-Spin)

2) If Physical Responsive Capability (PRC) < 2300 MW – deploy ALL Non-Spin. (Full deployment of Non-Spin)

• Physical Responsive Capability = Min (Max ((HSL – TelemMW), 0.0), 0.2*HSL) for online units + RRS from Load Resources


15

Illustrative Example on Revision to Deployment Based on “PRC” (Section 5.2 of RT Desk Operating Procedure)

1) If Physical Responsive Capability (PRC) < 2700 MW;

Then deploy all On-Line Non-Spin (Partial deployment of Non-Spin)


Then deploy enough Off-Line Non-Spin to recover PRC to 2500 (Partial deployment of Non-Spin)


Then deploy ALL Non-Spin. (Full deployment of Non-Spin)

• Physical Responsive Capability = Min (Max ((HSL – TelemMW), 0.0), 0.2*HSL) for online units + RRS from Load Resources


16

Current Recall Procedure (No suggested changes at this time)

• If (HDL-GEN) ≥ 500 MW, Avail_CAP_30Min ≥ 1000, AND PRC is ≥ 3000 MW;

• Then recall half of Non-Spin.

• If (HDL-GEN) ≥ 1000 MW, Avail_CAP_30Min ≥ 1000, AND PRC is ≥ 3000 MW

• Then recall all Non-Spin.


17

Possible Revisions to Non-Spin Deployment and Recall Procedure

August 17, 2011

Several possible revisions to the Non-Spin deployment and recall procedures have been discussed.

For some revisions, in addition to procedure changes that need to be approved by TAC, there would need to be changes to the ERCOT systems in order to have deployments and recalls that discriminate between On-Line Non-Spin and Off-Line Non-Spin Resources.

At least several months would be needed to implement the needed display changes and software changes.


18

Adjustments to the RUC Process

August 17, 2011

RUC is used to ensure ERCOT System reliability and to ensure that enough Resources Capacity, in addition to Ancillary Service capacity, is committed in the right locations to reliably serve the forecasted Load on the ERCOT system.

Bias already subtracted from the Load Forecast. (Average 1259 MW across peak hours in August)

Any adjustment would need to be studied and take into consideration the way the Quick Starts are represented in COP.

Protocol changes are likely required.


19

Last Slide


QUESTIONS

august 17, 2011 reliability deployments task force meeting updated analysis of non-spin deployments...

Documents