augmented reality - riding the wave

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Riding the Augmented Reality Wave | FTI Consulting LLP 1 EXPERTS WITH IMPACT A record $2.3 billion was invested in augmented reality (“AR”) startups in 2016, representing a three-fold increase from the $700 million invested just a year earlier. 1 AR hardware saw the largest investment, securing nearly 40 percent of total dollars. Key deals included $794 million raised by Magic Leap and capital raises by other AR hardware players, including ODG at $58 million, Meta at $50 million and Lumus at $45 million. The second largest investment area came in the AR services and solutions arena (including a $181 million investment in Unity, or nearly 20 percent of investment, the provider of a top game development platform and community.) Finally, AR apps also experienced large investments, driven by a $54 million raise by Blippar, a company that provides an AR mobile app and self-service suite of tools. 2 Technology Insights Riding the Augmented Reality Wave Overall, the vast majority of investment in AR occurred at the top of the technology stack, as seen in Figure 2. In the future, as AR capabilities and communities become well- established, we anticipate the System Integration layer of the stack – creating integration of ecosystems – will be a focus investment area play. 2016 also witnessed pervasive media coverage of the AR landscape. While often mentioned together and in similar terms, AR and virtual reality (“VR”) are different concepts and serve different use cases. In this article, we explore the quickly emerging and seemingly limitless world of AR. To provide clarity, both AR and VR are part of “Extended Reality,” which includes virtual, augmented and mixed reality (Figure 1). Although there are differing viewpoints on the potential market size for AR, it will certainly be huge. Analysts’ forecast for 2020 vary from $7 billion (Goldman Sachs) to $31 billion (Citibank) and up to$90 billion (Digi-Capital). 1 Digi-Capital 2 Digi-Capital, Greenlight Insights

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Page 1: Augmented Reality - Riding the Wave

Riding the Augmented Reality Wave|FTIConsultingLLP1EXPERTS WITH IMPACT

A record $2.3 billion was invested in augmented reality (“AR”) startups in 2016, representing a three-fold increase from the $700 million invested just a year earlier.1

AR hardware saw the largest investment, securing nearly 40 percent of total dollars. Key deals included $794 million raised by Magic Leap and capital raises by other AR hardware players, including ODG at $58 million, Meta at $50 million and Lumus at $45 million. The second largest investment area came in the AR services and solutions arena (including a $181 million investment in Unity, or nearly 20 percent of investment, the provider of a top game development platform and community.) Finally, AR apps also experienced large investments, driven by a $54 million raise by Blippar, a company that provides an AR mobile app and self-service suite of tools.2

TechnologyInsights

Riding the Augmented Reality Wave

Overall,thevastmajorityofinvestmentinARoccurredatthetopofthetechnologystack,asseeninFigure2.Inthefuture,asARcapabilitiesandcommunitiesbecomewell-established,weanticipatetheSystemIntegrationlayerofthestack–creatingintegrationofecosystems–willbeafocusinvestmentareaplay.

2016alsowitnessedpervasivemediacoverageoftheARlandscape.Whileoftenmentionedtogetherandinsimilarterms,ARandvirtualreality(“VR”)aredifferentconcepts

andservedifferentusecases.Inthisarticle,weexplorethequicklyemergingandseeminglylimitlessworldofAR.Toprovideclarity,bothARandVRarepartof“ExtendedReality,”whichincludesvirtual,augmentedandmixedreality(Figure1).

AlthoughtherearedifferingviewpointsonthepotentialmarketsizeforAR,itwillcertainlybehuge.Analysts’forecastfor2020varyfrom$7billion(GoldmanSachs)to$31billion(Citibank)andupto$90billion(Digi-Capital).

1Digi-Capital2Digi-Capital,GreenlightInsights

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Nomatterwhoyouchoosetobelieve,theconsensusisitwilltakelongertogainwidespreadpenetrationandadoptionforreasonswearticulatelaterinthisarticle.ARlikelywillacceleratequicklyoverthenextthreeyearsastheconsumerandenterprisemarketspacesgetdefinedandessentialtechnologies,includingtheunderlyingsoftware,chips,batteries,camerasandsensors,mature.

AsnumerousandcomplextechnologyecosystemsinvolvedwithARdevelopoverthenextfewyears,therewillbenewwearables,devicesandapplicationsusedtoaugmentsensesandphysicalcapabilities,enhancinginteractionswiththerealworld.ARwillchangethewaypeopleinteractwiththeirenvironmentandshapethewaytheyseetheworld.Ithasthepotentialtobeasdisruptiveassmartphoneshavebeenandcouldbethe

fourthcomputingrevolutionafterthePC,theInternetandsmartphones.

ARintegrateddeviceswillbetheconnectorsbetweenseveralothertechnologydisruptionsthatweareorsoonwillbeexperiencing(e.g.,smartcities).

ARhasthepotentialtoprovideacompleteframeworkforintegratingnewtechnologiesintobusinessandenterpriseapplicationsastheymatureandbecomemainstream.Thesetechnologiesincludecomputervisionandpatternrecognition,multi-sensorintegration,artificialintelligence(“AI”),roboticsandmachinelearning.

Augmentation TypesTounderstandviableARbusinessmodels,wemustfirst

understandthedifferenttypesofaugmentationavailable

today.CurrentARcanbebrokendownintofivemajor

categories.

Thefirstisdisplay augmentation,wherevisualoverlays

aremappedtoanysurface,includingscreens,walls,floors,

objectsandpeople.Humansinteractwiththesedisplays

throughsensoryinputs(e.g.,touch,movement,voice)to

displayinformationconnectingtherealworldtovirtual

worlds.Asimpleexampleofthistypeofaugmentationis

themyriadofvirtualkeyboardsthatexistinthemarket.

Thesecondtypeisgeospatial augmentation.Geotagging

andlocation-basedservicesareassistedbysensoryinput

(e.g.,GPS,magnetometer,accelerometer)andusedto

Apps and Content Apps • Appdevelopersandcontentproviders(e.g.,Creation,AssetsManagement)

Value-Add Services Value-AddServices • Value-addservicesfororusingAR(e.g.,expertfieldsupport,enhancedtraining,coding)

AR End PointsIntegratedDevices • Endpointdevices(e.g.,HoloLens,Rift,Bodyunits,otherdevices/equipmentbyusecase)

SWPlatformsandSoftwareDevelopmentKits(“SDKs”) • SoftwareplatformsandSDKsthatenableandenhancetheARendpoints

Enterprise Systems SystemIntegration • Integratorsofecosystems(e.g.,healthcare,Mil/Aero,connectedcar)

Delivery Infrastructure

DataAggregation&Processing • Datamanipulationandmanagement

CDN|EdgeComputing • CDN|distributedandedgecomputing

Network|Protocols • Transportandnetworking

DataPipeline • Dataandinformationchannels(bandwidthandspectrum)

Software

MiddlewareandEngines • Middlewareandengines(e.g.,A/Vcompression,3D/3DSound)

OS,SDKs,APIs • Infrastructuredevelopmentplatforms

FWandEmbeddedSoftware • Firmwareandembeddedsoftware

Components

Hardware • PCBs,hardwareintegration,sensorfusion

Processors • Dataandsignalprocessors

MemoryandLogic • NVM,volatilememoryandlogicdevices

SensorsandControllers • MEMSandothersensors,microcontrollers

FIGURE 2:AugmentedRealityTechnologyStackandValueChain

TechnologyInsights

Reality Description

Virtual

Animmersiveexperienceinacompletelyvirtualworld,inotherwords“youcanseeadifferentworld.”

Augmented

Arealworldenvironmentenhanceddigitallyusingsensoryinput(e.g.,graphics,location,sound),inotherwords“youcanseetheworlddifferently.”

Mixed Theblendingofaugmentedandvirtualrealitywhererealandvirtualworldsco-existandinteract.

FIGURE 1:ExtendedReality

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overlayreal-timeinformationonobjectsandpeopleas

theusermovesthroughtherealworld.ThePokémonGO!

appisagreatrecentexampleofgeospatialaugmentation

whereauser’slocationandclimateaffectthePokémon

theycancatch.

ThethirdtypeofARisrecognition-based augmentation.

Sensorsandimagingcapabilitiesidentifyobjects,shapes

andpatterns,whicharethenoverlaidwithelements,

includingimages,3Dconstructs,videos,soundsandother

information.Therecognitioncanbemarker-based,where

theimagesandcommentaryareidentifiedinadvance,or

marker-less,whererecognitionisdonereal-timewithout

usingpre-placedmarkers.Realandvirtualobjectscan

beviewedinthesamescreen,enablinginteractions.QR

codesareanexampleofrecognition-basedARusing

patterns.

Sensory augmentationisthefourthtypeofARand

involvesthemergerofsensorydataacrossthevirtualand

realworld,includingtouch,tasteandsmell.Bylevering

aperson’sorshape’soutline,touchcanbemimicked

anduserscaninteractwithvirtualenvironmentsand

objects(e.g.,stackingvirtualblocksontopofeach

other).Examplesofthistypeofaugmentationinclude

theMicrosoftKinect(virtualtouch),Sony’sDualShock4

(haptic)andOlorama’sdigitalscenttechnology(smell).

Thefifthtypeofaugmentationishybrid augmentation,

which,asitsnameimplies,isacombinationoftwoor

moreoftheaforementionedtypesofaugmentation.

TheMicrosoftHololens,SportsMEDIATechnologies

enhancementsoflivesportstelecasts,PokémonGO!,and

ReachRobotics’MekaMonbattlingrobotsarealldifferent

examplesofhybridaugmentation.

Pathways to AdoptionTherearebarriersinhibitingthespeedofARdevelopment

andwidespreadadoption.Thesebarriersarecreated

byinfrastructure,technology,security/privacy,safety

policies,financialandecosystemmaturityconsiderations.

Infrastructure Considerations:

• Scale complexity: ARisconstrainedonlybyspace

limitationssetbytherealworld.Totakefulladvantage

ofallthepossibilities,amyriadofinputsfromthereal

worldmustbeintegratedandprocessedatahigh

velocityandinreal-time.Wearejustbeginningto

explorethisexperience.

• Relationship mapping: Realandvirtualobject

relationshipsmustbewelldefined,established,

translatedandportableacrossplatformsand

technologiestoprovideaholisticARexperienceat

scale.Theserelationshipscanbeestablishedina

myriadofways,includingannotations,tags,labels,

hyperlinksatthesimplestlevelandhighlyadaptive

hyperlinksatacomplexlevelthatenabledecisions

basedondynamicenvironmentvariables.Giventhe

lackofdefinitionsandstandards,itwillbesometime

beforeweexperienceportablecrossecosystemAR.

• Interaction complexity: Peopleareaccustomedtothe

realworldandinstinctivelyknowhowtointeractwithit.

Overtime,individualstrainthemselvestointeractwith

thevirtualworldthroughman-madeinterfaces,suchas

amouse,joysticksandperipherals.TheworldofARis

newandblendstherealandvirtualworlds.Thelevelof

seamlessnessachievedwilldefine,enableanddrivethe

overalluserexperienceandadoption.

Technology Considerations:

• Sensors:Vastamountofsmall,cheapandefficient(low

power,high-speed)sensorsarerequiredtomakeARa

mainstreamtechnology.Depthsensorsinparticular

thatestimatedepthinalllightingconditionsarein

greatdemandinmanyindustryverticals.Thisisafast

evolvingspacelackingmajorplayerswiththecapacity

todevelopanddeploythesesensorsonagrandscale.

• Imaging: Mostcameramodulesareself-sufficient,

accessibleonlythroughhighlevelfunctioncalls

intendedforenduserapplications.Developersneed

theabilitytocontrolcamerasthroughlowerlevelAPIs

tofullyutilizeAR.

• Memory:Toquickenadoptionanddrivescale,

CPU-GPUsharedmemoryarchitecturesmustbe

exposedtodevelopersineasytoleveragedevelopment

kits.Inaddition,giventhevastdataandthroughput

requirementsforprocessingandmanipulatingimages

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intoday’sresolutions,memoryandsupporting

architecturemustcontinuallybemadesmaller,faster

andcheaper.

• Power:Asinallportabledevices,batterylifeiscritical.

Lowerpowertechnologycoupledwithnewbattery

technologytoenablealldayoperationsisamusthave

todrivemainstreamcommercialadoption.

• Sensory immersion:TrueARmustbe

all-encompassing.3Daudioisrapidlymaturingand

needstobeintegratedwithinappropriateARofferings.

Otherareasofsenseaugmentation(e.g.,smell,touch,

andtaste)areatvariousstagesofevolutionanda

completefivesenserealityisquitefuturistic.

• Connectivity:Realizingmobileconnectivityat

bandwidthsthatenablean“alwayson”postureis

criticaltodriveadoption.

Miscellaneous Factors:

• Security and privacy concerns:Securityandprivacy

concernshavealsobecomepervasiveintheconnected

world.Current(andfuture)ARcapabilitieswillrelyon

somelevelofcapturinguserdata/informationand

linkingitwiththingsintherealworldtherebydriving

needsforprivacyandsecurity.

• Safety and policy barriers:Safetyandpolicy

barrierswillplaytheirpartintheARadoptioncurve.

Safetyconsiderationsrangefromtheeverpresent

“distractionfactor”(akintopeopletextingwhile

driving)totheunderlyingreliabilityofthetechnology

forcomplexandriskytaskssuchasmedical

proceduresandmilitaryuse.

• Financial barriers:Financialbarriersalsoexist—both

tothebusinessesdevelopingandmanufacturingtheAR

capabilitiesandforconsumerspurchasingthem.As

sensor,memory,andprocessingcapabilitiescontinue

toincreaseandmanufacturingcostscontinueto

decrease,costofownershipwilltrendlower,incresing

ROIandadoption.

ThereareplentyofARusecases,whichcannotbe

achievedwithoutafoundationalecosystembeingin

place–theinfrastructure,technology,andvaluechain

players–alloperatingatoraboveacertainlevelof

maturity.Interoperabilityacrossplatforms,productsand

ecosystemsisvitaltodrivefasteradoption,avoidvendor

lock-inandmaketheARmarketplaceascompetitiveand

compellingaspossible.

Inadditiontothebarrierstoadoption,otherchallengesfor

ARtoovercomebeforeitcanreachcriticalmassinclude:

• Unveilingofa“killerdevice”(e.g.,an“ARiPhone”,

whethermadebyanOEMorothers).

• Establishinganappecosystemspecificallydesignedto

provideARexperiences.

• Achievingtelcocross-subsidization.

AR Use CasesAstheARmarketmatures,amyriadofusecasescontinuetoarise.Theydeployvarioustypesofaugmentationandaregatedbyspecificbarrierssofaroutlined.Figure3showsexamplesofcurrentlyexistingusecasesandhighlightsrepresentativeplayers,theaugmentationtypesused,andprimarypathwaystoadoption.Boththeusecaselistandtherepresentativeplayersarebynomeansall-inclusive.

Business ModelsBusinessmodelsdrivesuccessandtakeintoconsiderationmanyvariablesincludingthecompany’sstrategy,typeofoffering,usecasesaddressed,offering’svalueproposition,market,existingassets/capabilities,competitivelandscape,routestomarket,partnerecosystem,suppliersandendcustomers(includingtheirconsumptionmodelsandappetite),coststructureandmonetizationmethods.

ManyplayersexistacrosstheARvaluechainwithdifferentbusinessmodelsandunderlyingeconomiclogicforeach.Inthispaper,wefocusonthetopofthevaluechainandtechstack;however,companieslowerdowninthestackalsostandtobenefitfromARandneedtodevelopappropriatestrategiesandbusinessmodelstocapitalizeonthetrendeffectively(e.g.,sellingfaster/betterandmoreprofitablebandwidth,silicon,infrastructureequipment).

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TechnologyInsights

Focus Sample Use Cases Representative Players Augmentation Types Pathways to Adoption

GamingLocationbasedandinteractivegaming(e.g.,PokémonGO!)

•Niantic•CastAR•MekaMon

•Display•Geospatial

•Scalecomplexity•Relationshipmapping•Safetyandpolicy

TravelLocationbasedinteractivity(e.g.,popups,knowledge,games)

•Wikitude•Skignz•Flightradar24

•Display•Geospatial

•Scalecomplexity•Relationshipmapping•Ecosystem

Sporting Activities/Outdoors

Trackandprojectactivitymetricsinrealtime

Viewoverlaidinfoatsportingevents

•SixtoStart•Fusar•SportsMEDIA

•Display•Geospatial

•Sensors•Imaging•Power•Securityandprivacy

Entertainment

Experiencesforconsumerstointeractwithevents,shows,content,etc.

•Metagram•Olorama•Snapchat

•Display•Geospatial•Sensory

•Relationshipmapping•Interactioncomplexity•Power•Financial•Ecosystem

Marketing / Branding

Interactiveandimmersiveexperiencesforconsumerswithbrands

•INDE•Blippar•CurrentStudios

•Display•Recognition

•Interactioncomplexity•Imaging•Ecosystem

Personalized Shopping

Enhancedshoppingexperiencesdeliveredin-store(e.g.,interactivedisplayads)orremotely(e.g.,virtualfittingroom)

•FittingBox•GoInStore•Zappar

•Display•Geospatial•Recognition

•Financial•Ecosystem

Automotive

Headsupdisplay(“HUD”)andinterfacefordriving

•InfinityAR•PelicanImaging•iOnRoad

•Display•Geospatial•Recognition

•Scalecomplexity•Relationshipmapping•Sensors•Imaging•Memory•Safetyandpolicy•Ecosystem

Productivity Improvement

Performdailytaskssuchasemailandtextmessaging

•ThalmicLabs•eyeHand•GlassUp

•Display•Sensory

•Power•Securityandprivacy•Financial

Medical and Health Services

Improvesurgicalanddiagnosticcapabilitiesincludingremoteandrobotassistedoperations

•Meta•Pristine•ThirdEyeHealth

•Display•Sensory•Recognition

•Sensors•Imaging•Memory•Securityandprivacy•Safetyandpolicy•Financial•Ecosystem

FIGURE 3:IllustrativeUseCases

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TechnologyInsights

Type Business Model Pros Cons

Hardware Only

Directsalestobusinessesandconsumers

•Ifsuccessfulthehardwarecanbecomethemainhumaninterfacetotheecosystem(thinkAppleiPhone)

•VerycrowdedspaceandhardwarecomeswithBOMandsupplychaincosts(itbetterbegood)

Hardware Subsidized by Software or Services

Razor-blade(sellhardwarenearcostandmonetizeviasoftware,apps,orsupportservices)

•Providemoreprofitableandscalableavenuesforgrowingrevenuesbeyondjustsellinghardware

•Abilitytomonetizenon-hardwareelementsisdeterminedbyabilitytosellhardware(itbetterbegood)

Software Only

ARplatform(withhosting,transaction,orlicensefees)

•Digitaldevelopmentfocusedonly(lesscomplexsupplychain)

•Ifsuccessfultheplatformprovidercanbecomethe“glue”oftheecosystem

•Difficulttogrowtheecosystemandattractuserswithoutdevelopingagamechangeroralreadyhavingseriousclout

Apps Only

Microtransactions/in-apppurchases

•Digitaldevelopmentfocusedonly(lesscomplexsupplychain)

•Veryprofitableifsuccessful

•Hardtomaintain,user’sattentioncaneasilymovetoothersources

Ecosystem Play

TurnkeySolutionsandSystemsthatprovideEcosystemglue(Softwareplatform,Telcoinfrastructure,Dataplay)

•Highbarriertoentryonceexperienceisbuiltandcomplexsolutionsavailable

•Veryprofitableifsuccessful

•Difficulttobuildfromscratch.Usuallycreatedthroughacquisitions

FIGURE 4:RepresentativeBusinessModels

Figure4showspotentialbusinessmodelswithassociatedprosandcons.Thislistisbynomeansall-inclusive.Itshouldbenotedthatacompanycanemployacombinationofmodelsaswellascrossovercategoriesbasedonitsportfolioofofferings.

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TechnologyInsights

Conclusion

Regardlessofwhichforecastyouchoosetobelieve,theopportunityforARisbig.Wellknownhigh-techcompaniesarerapidlybuildingouttheirARsolutionsandofferings.

2016witnessedtheglobalreleaseofMicrosoft’sHoloLensv1,aself-containedholographiccomputerbuiltintoaheadset.Microsofthasalreadyannouncedplanstoskipv2sotheycanacceleratedevelopmentofv3withatargetreleaseof2019.Recently,MicrosoftalsoacquiredSimplygon,asoftwarefirmfocusedonautomaticoptimizationof3D-gamecontentandlevelofdetail,toincorporatethetechnologyandfurtherenhanceHoloLens’capabilities.Inaddition,MicrosoftisbusyfilingAR-relatedpatentstosolidifyitsposition,includingonefocusedongraspingvirtualobjectsinAR,onefocusedonprovidingadditionalcomfort/eyereliefforwearablesandanotheronARlightguidedisplaytechniques.

AccordingtoEngadget,Amazon’shardwareR&DdivisionLab126islookingtoturnwholeroomsintoanARexperience.Amazonwasawardedseveralpatentsin2015focusedonobjecttrackingandreflector-baseddepthmapping;and,in2017theU.S.PatentOfficepublishedalicensebelongingtoAmazonthatincludedenhancedrealitysmartglasses.ThiscapitalizesonAmazon’scurrentfootprintwithintheconnectedhomeandoffice,includingAmazonPrime(streaming)andAlexa(ArtificalIntelligencevoiceassistant)amongothers.AmazonisusingAlexaasaplatformtofurtherpenetratemarkets,includinguseonthird-partydevices(e.g.,Huawei’sMate9Androidphone,Fordcars).AmazoncanleveragetheserelationshipsandplatformscaletocomplementitsARofferingsanddriveincreasedadoption.

Inaddition,acquisitionsmadebyotherhigh-techplayersalsoshowhowtechexecutivesareplacingbetsonAR:

• Google: Api.ai,Eyefluence,ThriveAudio

• Facebook:TwoBigEars,PebblesInterfaces(via

Oculus),Faciometrics,MSQRD

• Apple: PrimeSense,FittingBox,Metaio,Faceshift,Flyby

Media

• Snapchat:Seene,Looksery,CimagineMedia,Scan

ARhasapromisingfuture,drivenbythelargeandincreasingventurecapitalinvestmentsandbigbetsplacedbyglobalcorporations.ThetechnologyandunderlyingecosystemsforARarematuringrapidly.ARhasstandalonepotential;but,italsofitssynergisticallywiththeInternetofThings(“IoT”)andriseoftheconnectedworld,whichhasalreadyachievedsolidmarketpenetration.Tocapturemaximumbenefitsandcapitalizeonthepowerofincreasedscale,companiesshouldintegrateARcapabilitiesintotheirIoTinitiatiavesandroadmapsnow.

Webelieve2017willseemarkedimprovementsinARtechnologies(e.g.,wireless,battery,andimaging),continuedreductionofcostsandtherealizationofadditionalusecasesthatproviderealandtangiblebenefitstobusinessusersandconsumers.

In2020,peoplewillremember2017notastheyearARwentmainstreambuttheyearinwhichthefoundationneededtomakeARmainstreamwassolidified.

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Nitin KumarSenior Managing Director+1 646 202 [email protected]

Michael KnottSenior Managing Director+44 20 3727 [email protected]

Phil SchumanSenior Managing Director+1 310 569 [email protected]

John Cartoux, PhDManaging Director+1 202 277 [email protected]

Brian HoardManaging Director+1 512 585 [email protected]

Ryan HerbstConsultant+1 646 830 3542 [email protected]

The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily the views of FTI Consulting, Inc., its management, subsidiaries, affiliates, or other professionals.

FTI Consulting, Inc., including its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a consulting firm and is not a certified public accounting firm or a law firm.

About FTI ConsultingFTI Consulting is an independent global business advisory firm dedicated to helping organizations manage change, mitigate risk and resolve disputes: financial, legal, operational, political & regulatory, reputational and transactional. FTI Consulting professionals, located in all major business centers throughout the world, work closely with clients to anticipate, illuminate and overcome complex business challenges and opportunities.

©2017 FTI Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.

EXPERTS WITH IMPACT