atmospheric technology division opening remarks, ihop_2002 science team meeting toulouse, june 2004...
TRANSCRIPT
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
The International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) -- Two years Later
Expected Outcomes, Pleasant Surprises and Future Challenges
David Parsons and Tammy WeckwerthNCAR/ATD
Boulder, COUSA
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Motivation
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Motivation• Floods, especially flash floods, cause more deaths each year than tornadoes, hurricanes, lightning and wind
storms
• Significant property losses due to flash floods and they are the highest percentage of federal aid events. (Recently >$8 billion per year and rising).
• Warnings are difficult: often night time events, public perception of precipitation events, dependent on hydrology and meteorology, and increases in skill will help (current warnings often < 1h).
• The problem of poor forecasts of flash floods and warm season convective is a problem that is international in scope.
• It has been argued that improvements in QPF for non-flood situations will have significant economic and social benefit.
• IHOP_2002 research will benefit other warm season warning and prediction problems
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Goals of IHOP_2002• Improved understanding and prediction of
warm season rainfall (0 –12 h forecast)
• Improved characterization of the time varying 3-D distribution of water vapor
• Four overlapping research components– Convective initiation– Quantitative precipitation forecasting– Atmospheric Boundary Layer– Instrumentation (optimal mix)
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Isentropic Airflow and Sounding Domain
Isentropic streamlines (37 C) for 2330 UTC
4 May 1961. The dashed lines are isobars at 100 hPa
intervals (from Carlson and Ludlam
1968)
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
IHOP Summary: 13 May to 25 June
• >200 Technical participants from France, the US, Germany and Canada
• ~2500 additional soundings
• > 50 instrument platforms, 6 aircraft, 45 IOPs
• 268 h of airborne water vapor lidar measurements
• 76 h of airborne satellite evaluation measurements (S-HIS and NAST)
• Dedicated GOES-11 data
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Convective Initiation – Expected Outcomes
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Boundary Layer Studies
Expected Outcomes
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
QPF – Expected Outcomes
IHOP Research Forecast Models
(courtesy of Steve Koch, NOAA/FSL)
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Instrumentation (Optimal Mix)Expected Outcomes
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Instrumentation (Optimal Mix)Expected Outcomes
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Some Pleasant Surprises
• BORRREEEEESSSSS !!!!!!!!!!
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Some Pleasant Surprises
• BORRREEEEESSSSS !!!!!!!!!!
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
One Example of Several Pleasant Instrumentation Surprises --- Refractivity
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Some Pleasant SurprisesUse of Data Set for Diverse and
Unexpected ApplicationsU wind for LLJ
anomaly from the diurnal mean
Obs
ClimateModel
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
CAM3 Diurnal Composite (SGP, IHOP period)
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Some Successes Over the Past Year
• Rapid movement toward collaborative work, sometimes stretching well beyond the expected boundaries
• Rapid movement toward a mix of case studies and climatologies
• Healthy mix of observations and modeling work
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Will IHOP_2002 be considered a success?
• Publications are one measure of success
– Some refereed publications are starting to appear
– Strong showing in conference literature
– Special issue in Monthly Weather Review
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Will IHOP_2002 be considered a success?
• Impact on operational forecasting will be another measure utilized
– Prediction #1 – Radar refractivity will become operational in large part due to IHOP_2002
– Operational interest and eventual operational impact of reference radiosonde results
– Prediction #2 – Strong (possibly under appreciated) impact on operations through new conceptual model and increased knowledge of how to model convection
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Impact on operational forecasting will be another
measure utilized• Potential to contribute to big picture
questions facing NWP
– Increase and improve utilization of satellite data sets over land
– Improved treatment of land surface processes
– Improved assimilation of water (cloud, vapor and precipitation)
• Propose a meeting Thursday at lunch to discuss the long awaited assimilation workshop
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Impact on operational forecasting will be another
measure utilized
Email Tammy Weckwerth if you have ideas on other contributions of IHOP_2002 to prediction of warm season convection
Appreciate thoughts from PIs on how IHOP_2002 will address the other two big picture issues and how transfers to operations will occur
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Prospective on Future Experiments
• IHOP_2002
– Regional-scale meridional gradient in mixing ratio, soil moisture and vegetation
– High CAPE but strong CIN (the original conditionally unstable environment)
– “Relatively” low impact of transient synoptic disturbances
– Strong terrain impact to the west of the experimental domain
– Large systems are nocturnal
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Prospective on Future Experiments
• CSIP
– Smaller impact of gradients in soil moisture and vegetation
– Lower CAPE but less CIN
– Stronger impact of transient synoptic disturbances
– Modest terrain impacts within the experimental domain
– Lack of “continental” propagation of large convective systems
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Prospective on Future Experiments
• German QPF experiment
– Smaller impact of gradients in soil moisture and vegetation
– Lower CAPE but less CIN
– Large terrain impacts within the experimental domain so that terrain may control convective systems
– Strong impact of transient synoptic disturbances
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
THORPEX
The THORPEX slides on the European flood are courtesy of Melvyn Shapiro, Co-chair, THORPEX International Science Steering Committee
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11stst Example: Central European Flood Example: Central European Floodss
August 2002
Prague
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Dundee Satellite Station: 1241 UTC 11 Aug. 2002Dundee Satellite Station: 1241 UTC 11 Aug. 2002
France
Italy
The StormThe Storm
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Dresden GermanyDresden Germany
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Central European FloodsCentral European Floods
Japan Japan Austria Austria
11 Aug.
1 Aug. Cyclogenesis off Japan
Courtesy of Shapiro and Thorpe
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1
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1 2
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1 21 2
3
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1 231
2 3 4
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421 3
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15
23 4
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5 6 74
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5 674
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56
74
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765
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7
865
Flood
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22ndnd Example: Minnesota Flood: 9-11 Example: Minnesota Flood: 9-11 June 2002June 2002
Moderate drought on 1 June
Widespreadrainfall in excess of 5 inches.
Flood with >$340 million in federal disaster aid.
80% of homes and businesses damaged in Roseau, MN
Locally most significant flood on record.
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Minnesota Flood: 9-11 June 2002Minnesota Flood: 9-11 June 2002
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Convection along Mei-Yu Front
Wisc. flood, previouswave packet ?
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1st Downstream Cyclogenesis
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2nd Downstreamcyclogenesis
Mn floodfrom frontaloverrunning
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Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Thank for your attention and
for your hard work on IHOP_2002