atlantis, what atlantis? - amazon s3€¦ · atlantis, what atlantis? ray rivers (physics, ic)...

Atlantis, what Atlantis?

Ray Rivers (Physics, IC)

Collaboration with Carl Knappett (Art, Toronto) Tim Evans (Physics, IC)

Myths and Maths, Coventry 2013

Prologue.

• Micro – interpersonal • Meso - community • Macro - regional

Q. To what extent do networks of social interactions in myth reflect social interactions in real life?

- one tool to help substantiate individual myths Interactions occur at several levels:

Prologue.


Textual analysis of myth, e.g. Trojan War, Beowolf, …



Prologue.


Textual analysis of myth, e.g. Trojan War, Beowolf, …



This Talk.

Can these ideas work at larger scales – meso/macro – ‘Imperial’ scale?

Talk: Disasters - Atlantis myth and Thera

I. Myth

II. Math

I. Atlantis: Prototypical disaster myth

• ‘Advanced’ civilisation • Physical destruction • Destruction of ‘Empire’ • ‘Survival’

Originally Plato/Hellanicus

‘Atlantis - a circular island, with an exterior lake, linked to the sea by a great canal’ “Now in this island of Atlantis there was a great and wonderful empire which had rule over the whole island and several others, and over parts of the continent . . . “

Which fought the Athenians, and then !!!!!

2004

1970

2011

Persistence of Atlantis myth:

• Fascination with natural disaster

• There are many sunken ‘cities`

Herakleion, Egypt

Pavlopetri, Greece

Yonaguni-Jima, Japan

Persistence of Atlantis myth: Post-Plato

• Penalties of hubris and going against

the gods

• Racial stereotyping/ colonialism

Current DNA analysis!

Persistence of Atlantis myth: Post-Plato

• Penalties of hubris and going against

the gods

Post-Platonic mythology that defines the myth!

• Racial stereotyping/ colonialism

Current DNA analysis!

‘Candidates` for Atlantis:

Several ways to proceed:

Most stupid first: • Atlantis existed – theosophy ... • Plato based Atlantis on ‘real’ events • Entirely fictional – he is comparing systems of government - not taken seriously in ancient past

For the sake of argument assume the intermediate position:


Not continents (Plato): ‘Plato’s 10-fold error’

Local disasters for local ‘Empires’!


Not continents (Plato): ‘Plato’s 10-fold error’ 22 and counting!

Local disasters for local ‘Empires’!

Thera/Santorini a popular candidate!

Atlantis: The ‘destruction’ of the Minoan ‘Empire’

Roughly self-contained in space and time -c.2000 BC Distinct Minoan culture starts

Middle Bronze Age (MBA) Aegean


Roughly self-contained in space and time -c.2000 BC Distinct Minoan culture starts -c.1700 BC Knossos plays a dominant role

Knossos

Middle Bronze Age (MBA) Aegean


Roughly self-contained in space and time -c.2000 BC Distinct Minoan culture starts Thera: ‘Gateway’ for Minoanisation of S. Aegean

Knossos

Thera


Thera as ‘gateway’: • If you can get from Knossos to Thera (100km) in a single journey the whole S. Aegean can be traversed in a few steps. • If not, not! • Sail replacing oar: 100km possible for the first time!

Knossos

Thera


Thera as gateway:

Knossos

Thera


Thera as gateway:

Destroyed by volcanic eruption in 1575 ± 50 BC !

Knossos

Thera


Thera as gateway:


Knossos

Thera

• Huge ash (tephra) deposits


Thera as gateway:


Knossos

Thera

• Huge ash (tephra) deposits • Tsunamis


Thera as gateway:


Knossos

Thera

• Huge ash (tephra) deposits • Tsunamis • ‘Burning of the Palaces’ and the end of Minoan culture

The ‘destruction’ of the Minoan ‘Empire’

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Atlantis! Conflation: • Atlantis = Thera


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‘...harbour, filled with ships and merchants from all quarters’


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Atlantis! Conflation: • Atlantis = Thera • Atlantis = Knossos/Minoans



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Atlantis! Conflation: • Atlantis = Thera • Atlantis = Knossos/Minoans



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Atlantis! Conflation: • Atlantis = Thera • Atlantis = Knossos/Minoans • Atlantis = Thera/Knossos = Minoan ‘Empire’ - go down together!



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Atlantis! Conflation: • Atlantis = Thera • Atlantis = Knossos/Minoans • Atlantis = Thera/Knossos = Minoan ‘Empire’ - go down together!



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Later Narrative: • Thriving Minoan thalassocracy • Eruption of Thera • BUT activity increases!


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Later Narrative: • Thriving Minoan thalassocracy • Eruption of Thera • BUT activity increases!


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Later Narrative: • Thriving Minoan thalassocracy • Eruption of Thera • BUT activity increases! • ‘Burning of the Palaces’ postponed a generation!


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“ a centralised economy which may

be working under some adversity which might be increased population … people coming in from Thera … What I think you would expect to see is not a gradual decline, but an increasing intensity in the various subsystems of the culture system, including an increasing level of trade, until the system breaks down altogether.”

Renfrew (1980)


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‘Boom/Bust’ scenario



Renfrew (1980)


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Later Narrative: • Thriving Minoan thalassocracy • Eruption of Thera • BUT activity increases • ‘Burning of the Palaces’ postponed a generation!

Resilience + ‘Boom/Bust’ scenario



Renfrew (1980)


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Later Narrative: • Thriving Minoan thalassocracy • Eruption of Thera • BUT activity increases • ‘Burning of the Palaces’ postponed a generation!

Resilience + ‘Boom/Bust’ scenario Eruption of Thera a (spectacular) side-show!



Renfrew (1980)


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Later Narrative: • Thriving Minoan thalassocracy • Eruption of Thera • BUT activity increases – resilience! • ‘Burning of the Palaces’ postponed a generation!

Networks:

• Resilience is a characteristic of strongly coupled networks

• Boom/Bust a characteristic of strongly coupled networks!



Renfrew (1980)

Contemporary parallels: The destruction of the World Trade Centre and current economic crisis

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Narrative: • Thriving economy • World Trade Centre destroyed • BUT activity increases! • boom-bust instability

Networks!

‘Human tragedy rather than an economic calamity’

© Imperial College London

II. Maths: Networking Thera

• Vertices = Major Population or Resource Sites

• Edges = Exchange between sites

- physical trade of goods or transmission of culture

- soft power and hard power

• Interactions controlled by physical limitations of ancient sea travel -- Simple Links

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Nodes/Sites:


MBA Marine technology:

• Sail replaces oar for large distances

• Single journeys of 100km possible

• For the first time in the BA, technology is good enough to enable a fully connected exchange network to form

• – it does!

• Should only choose models whose dynamics are sensitive to geography!

Network Dynamics: ‘Space’ rather than ‘place’ Cost/benefit analysis • Benefits in establishing links • Benefits from local resources • Costs in supporting links, supporting population

Rational choice : ‘Optimisation’

• Trade off ‘costs’ against ‘benefits’ to best advantage

- minimising ‘social potential’

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Model:

• exchange benefits • resource benefits • population costs

ariadne


Model:

Model aims for ‘best’ Settles for the ‘good’

Stochastic Optimisation!


Outputs:

Nodes: Populations

Links: Flows

Network: Rankings and betweenness

Minoan Civilisation: 3 phases

• Pre-eruption

Vigorous maritime exchange network

• Eruption!

• Post-eruption resilience

(Even more?) vigorous maritime exchange network

• (In)stability and Fire Destruction

Internal collapse/external invasion/earthquake

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Pre-eruption:

Network lives dangerously

• familiar ‘catastrophe’ fold in site exploitation (population) if exchange drops while lacking self-sufficiency

Agrees with Broodbank et al. (2005) “For the southern Aegean islands

in the late Second and Third Palace periods, ... there may often have been precariously little middle ground to hold between the two poles of (i) high profile connectivity, wealth and population, or (ii) an obscurity and relative poverty in terms of population and access to wealth that did not carry with it even the compensation of safety from external groups”.

Pre-eruption: Thriving network (V-Rank; L-Weight)

High ‘betweenness

for Knossos/Thera

Eruption:

Resilience and revival: Post-eruption rearrangement (V- Rank, L- weight)

Keos!

“the evidence points to, if anything, an increase in Minoan trading activity in LM IB, particularly in our excavations at Ayia Irini, Keos (14) where we literally had thousands of LM IB vases imported from outside” (Pichler 1980)

Later post-eruption behaviour: Endogenous Instability Increasing costs of sustaining network

“ a centralised economy which may be

working under some adversity which might be increased population … people coming in from Thera … What I think you would expect to see is not a gradual decline, but an increasing intensity in the various subsystems of the culture system, including an increasing level of trade, until the system breaks down altogether. There is a parallel here with a stock exchange collapse”

Renfrew (1980)

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Endogenous Instability Increasing costs of sustaining network


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56


57


58


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• A few strong links form at the expense of weak links

• Network collapses as the few remaining strong links disappear

• Stability correlated to existence of weak links

Alternatives: Avoiding instability Waiting for the Myceneans (?)

Alternatives: Avoiding instability Waiting for the Myceneans (?)

BUT instability generic!

Conclusions: Problems with some destruction myths:

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• ‘Advanced’ civilisations • No problems with physical destruction

• Problems with instantaneous destruction of ‘civilisation’


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• Rapid destruction of ‘civilisation’ requires absence of networking - networks give resilience • But networking necessary to have enabled ‘advanced civilisation’: e.g. Bronze requires tin


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• Rapid destruction of ‘civilisation’ requires absence of networking - networks give resilience • But networking necessary to have enabled ‘advanced civilisation’: e.g. Bronze requires tin


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• Rapid destruction of ‘civilisation’ requires absence of networking - networks give resilience • But networking necessary to have enabled ‘advanced civilisation’: e.g. Bronze requires tin V.

Japan under Sakoku - Tokugaru Shogunate Choshu Five!

Intentional refusal to network fails!


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• ‘Human tragedy rather than an economic calamity’ - saved by the network! • ‘Tragedy’ that is remembered

References:

C. Knappett, T. Evans, and R. Rivers, 2008.

'Modelling maritime interaction in the Aegean Bronze Age', Antiquity 82, 1009-1024.

T. Evans, C. Knappett, and R. Rivers, 2009.

'Using statistical physics to understand relational space: a case study from Mediterranean prehistory',

in D. Lane, S. van der Leeuw, D. Pumain and G. West (eds.), Complexity Perspectives in Innovation and Social Change, 451-79. Berlin: Springer Methodos Series 7.

C. Knappett, T. Evans, and R. Rivers, 2011.

'Modelling maritime interaction in the Aegean Bronze Age II: The eruption of Thera and the burning of the palaces’ , Antiquity 85, 1008-1023

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The myth goes on!

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The history of Thera contains all the stories told about it!

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Thank you!

• Renfrew’s suggestion for Crete that ‘What I think you would expect to see is not a gradual decline, but an increasing intensity in the various subsystems of the culture system, including an increasing level of trade, until the system breaks down altogether. There is a parallel here with a stock exchange collapse.’ may look extreme, but the idea that, in general, there is an increasing (or, at least, not a decreasing) level of activity is supported by Pichler [II] who suggests that (primarily with respect to the Cyclades) ‘the evidence points, if anything, to an increase in Minoan trading activity in LM 1B, particularly in our excavations at Ayia Irini, Keos where we literally had thousands of LM 1B vases imported from outside’

• This is compatible with Carl’s comment that ‘some still see LM IB as a kind of heyday - and indeed some of the most impressive 'art' comes from this period, such as Marine Style, and new construction occurs: the palaces at Phaistos and Zakros are rebuilt / built in this phase. Further, ‘most sites continue to be occupied, but perhaps the affiliations of some change; more mainland oriented rather than to Crete.

• KPCS, Mountjoy paper, 399-404. Stresses need to separate LM IA from LM IB, and that in doing so we see that Cretan influence in Cyclades in LM IB is much less than in LM IA. She cites her study with Ponting (BSA 2000) showing LM IB pottery from Melos and Kea to be imported from mainland rather than Crete. See also her chapter in the Phylakopi volume (Renfrew 2007) in which she follows a similar line, of course.

• Kythera – seems to do fine and even flourish in LM IB. Coldstream and Huxley 1972. See also Coldstream [I] whose comparison of pottery on Kastri (Kythera)and Crete in LM 1 suggests that there may have been expansion in the LM1 period, since the only houses in the chief area of Kastri are dated LM 1B. Further, there are many imports (a ‘flood’) of Cretan AS(?) pottery in Kastri in LM 1B. The speculation is that it is due to refugees seeking their fortunes in the aftermath of the Theran eruption.

• Miletus – see Niemeier 2005 in Villing volume: Miletus IVb is equivalent to LM IB and there are Marine Style and Standard Tradition imports (e.g. stirrup jar); but note also LH IIA cup with double axe and LH IIB pithoid jar. Apparently still strong Cretan/Knossian connections, but not exclusively so.

• Rhodes: Marketou et al. 2006 BSA. Minoan imports in LM IB, but also Greek mainland imports appearing”

Typical outputs: Post-eruption

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