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  • 8/7/2019 Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Hydrology

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    A W O R L D B A N K S T U D Y

    D E V E L O P M E N T O F A M E T H O D O L O G Y T H R O U G H

    A C A S E S T U D Y I N T H E A N D E S O F P E R U

    Assessment of the Impacts

    of Climate Change on

    Mountain Hydrology

    Walter Vergara, Alejandro Deeb, Irene Leino,

    Akio Kitoh, Marisa Escobar

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    W O R L D B A N K S T U D Y

    Assessment of the Impactsof Climate Change onMountain Hydrology

    Development of a Methodology through

    a Case Study in the Andes of PeruWalter Vergara

    Alejandro Deeb

    Irene Leino

    Akio Kitoh

    Marisa Escobar

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    Copyright 2011The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank1818 H Street, NWWashington, DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000

    Internet: www.worldbank.org

    1 2 3 4 13 12 11 10

    World Bank and ESMAP Studies are published to communicate the results of the Banks work to the de-velopment community with the least possible delay. The manuscript of this paper therefore has not beenprepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally-edited texts. Some sources cited inthis paper may be informal documents that are not readily available. This volume is a product of the staffof the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank and ESMAP. The find-ings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of theExecutive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent.

    The World Bank and ESMAP does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. Theboundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply

    any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorse-ment or acceptance of such boundaries.

    Rights and PermissionsThe material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmiing portions or all of this

    work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruc-tion and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grantpermission to reproduce portions of the work promptly.

    For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with completeinformation to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA;telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com.

    All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Of-fice of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422;

    e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org.

    ISBN: 978-0-8213-8662-0eISBN: 978-0-8213-8663-7DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8662-0

    Cover photo: Ana Iju Fukushima.

    Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested.

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    iii

    Contents

    Foreword .....................................................................................................................................xi

    Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................. xiii

    Executive Summary .................................................................................................................xv

    Acronyms and Abbreviations ...............................................................................................xix

    1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 1

    Objective of the Study ......................................................................................................... 1

    Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 1

    Structure of the Report ....................................................................................................... 2River Basins Used as Case Studies .................................................................................... 2

    2. Context ..................................................................................................................................... 7

    Climate Impacts on Water Regulation ..............................................................................9

    Climate Impacts on Glaciers .............................................................................................. 9

    Climate Impacts on Mountain Wetlands ...................................................................... 10

    3. Climate Analysis .................................................................................................................. 13

    High-Resolution Climate Projection for Peru for the 21stCentury ............................ 14

    Ensembles to Simulate Future Climate ......................................................................... 19Subgrid Orography Dynamic Model (Downscaling Tool) ......................................... 21

    Rainfall Trend Analysis .................................................................................................... 25

    Limitations in Climate Projections .................................................................................. 27

    Criteria for Building Climate Scenarios ......................................................................... 28

    4. Hydrology Analysis ............................................................................................................. 41

    WEAP Model...................................................................................................................... 41

    Development of a Glacier Module .................................................................................. 41

    The Pramo Module .......................................................................................................... 44

    5. Testing the Hydrology Tool at Basin Level ..................................................................... 46

    Calibration in Nonglaciated Sub-basins......................................................................... 46

    Calibration and Validation: The Santa River Basin ...................................................... 46

    Calibration and Validation: Rmac-Mantaro River Basins ..........................................51

    6. Results from the Hydrology Analysis .............................................................................. 58

    Visualization of Climate Change Impacts on Rivers in Peru ......................................58

    Visualization of Climate Change in the Santa Basin ....................................................59

    Visualization of Climate Change in the Rmac and Mantaro Basins .........................63

    Results ................................................................................................................................. 66

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    iv Contents

    7. Conclusions .......................................................................................................................... 68

    General Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 68

    Moving Forward ................................................................................................................ 71

    Lessons Learned ................................................................................................................ 71References.................................................................................................................................. 73

    Appendixes................................................................................................................................ 81

    Appendix 1. IPCCEmissions Scenarios ...................................................................... 83

    Appendix 2. Verification of the Ability of the Simulated Dataset to ReproduceObserved Precipitation Behavior (draft) ................................................................ 87

    Appendix 3. Subgrid Orography Scheme ...................................................................... 92

    Appendix 4. Technical Report on Glacier and High-elevation Wetland ModelSelection and Parameterization .............................................................................102

    Appendix 5. Pramo Module in WEAP .......................................................................135

    Appendix 6. Calibration of Nonglaciated Sub-basins ................................................ 143

    Appendix 7. Final Calibration-Validation of the Santa River Model .......................146

    Tables

    Table ES 1. Summary of approaches used in the climate analysis ................................... xvi

    Table 2.1. Number of stations in the Peruvian Andes with significant (at 5% level)trends for seasonal temperature indexes during the 19602000 period ......................8

    Table 3.1. Observed annual precipitation trends in the Mantaro

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