assessing victoria’s public transport network

Engineering

Assessing Victorias Public Transport Network

Prof. Graham CurriePublic Transport Research Group, Institute of Transport Studies,Monash University

Victorian Transport Summit 20123rd October 2012Novotel Melbourne on CollinsMELBOURNE VIC 3000

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Outline

1. Introduction

2. Relative Performance

3. Progress

4. Futures

2


This paper reviews performance, progress and futures of Melbourne Public Transport

� How are we doing compared to other cities

� What are the major challenges?

� Are we getting better/worse over time?

� What about the future?

� Review based on:

– Published data sources/ data

3


…and is structured as follows

Relative Performance

Progress

4

Futures


Outline

1. Introduction


3. Progress

4. Futures

5


Australian public transport use is growing and has its highest use in all history

Australian Urban Public Transport Travel

Total Trips p.a. Passenger Kms p.a.

Source: Cosgrove D (2011) ‘Long-term patterns of Australian public transport use’ Australasian Transport Research Forum 2011 Proceedings

6


Sydney has always had higher ridership but Melbourne growth has been good and we are catching Sydney


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Sydney Melbourne Brisbane

Adelaide Perth Hobart

Darwin Canberra

M Trips p.a. by City

Years

M P

ublic

Tra

nsport

Trips p

.a.


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010



Darwin Canberra Total

Index 1980=100

YearsIn

dex, 1980=

100.Melbourne

Melbourne

7

Melbourne toOvertake Sydney

in next 5 years


Ozy cities are highly car dependent and Low Density

Source: OECD Factbook (2006)

-100 100 300 500 700 900

USA

New Zealand

Australia

France

Spain

Austria

Netherlands

Sw eden

Greece

Czeh Republic

Slovak Republic

Motor Vehicle Ownership

Vehicles/100 population

Countr

y

102

90

79

65

63

59

59

48

38

18

14

10

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

New York

Tokyo

Chicago

Singapore

Hong Kong

London

San Francisco

Paris

Berlin

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Urban Density

People per Hectare

Countr

y

Source: The Economist - Submission to the VCEC

Inquiry into Managing Transport Congestion (2006)

8


Overall Oz PT Trips/head have declined but are generally stable while car use growth dominates

28th February 2011 9

PT Trips/Head – Urban Australia Billion Pax Km p.a. by Mode – Urban Australia



However Melbourne leads the country in growth of PT trips per head


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010




Trips/Head by City

Years

M P

ublic

Tra

nsport

Trips p

.a.


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010




Index 1980=100

YearsIn

dex, 1980=

100.

Melbourne Melbourne

10


Inner Melbourne has been particularly successful including employment/ mode share growth

100102

105.5

108.8

113.5

116.7

119.9120.9

122

127.9

133.8

138.7

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

1995-9

6

1996-9

7

1997-9

8

1998-9

9

1999-0

0

2000-0

1

2001-0

2

2002-0

3

2003-0

4

2004-0

5

2005-0

6

2006-0

7

Melbourne CBD Employment Growth (1995/96=100)

Year

Source: Census of Land Use and Employment (CLUE)

Melbourne City Council (2006)

CB

D E

mplo

yment (1

995/6

=100

Census - Car, as driver, 34%

Census - Public Transport, 52%

VATS 1996 - Car, as driver40%

Census - Car, as driver 29%

Census - Car, as driver 41%

VATS 1996 - Public Transport

47%

Census - Public Transport, 48%

Census - Public Transport 55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Mo

de

Sh

are

VATS - Car, as driver Census - Car, as driver

VATS - Car, as passenger Census - Car, as passenger

VATS - Public Transport Census - Public Transport

VATS - Non-motorised Census - Non-motorised

Introduction of congestion levy

Data Sources: VATS 1994-1999; ABS 1996, ABS 2001, ABS 2006

Sampling error (at 95% level of confidence) equals ± 5.0% in 1996 for car (as driver),

and ± 5.3% in 1996 for public transport. ‘Other’ and ‘Not Stated’ not shown

Analysis: Hamer P. Unpublished Analysis

Weekday Journey to Work Travel Share Trend – Congestion Levy Area


However the rail network has reached capacity


And Tram services are struggling in growing traffic congestion

13

Source: VCEC (2006) Inquiry into Managing

Transport Congestion


Melbourne is the worlds biggest “streetcar” system

167

7166

4944

31

25 24 24 2318

14 13 129 9

1 1 0

17

4 4 3 1

48

41

9 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

MELBOURNE

TORONTO

Dusseldorf

Bochum

Essen

Duisburg

Frankfurt/Main

Dortmund

Mulheim

Cologne

Hanover

Mannheim

Karlsruhe (VBK)

Stuttgart

Bonn SWB

Bielefeld

Bonn SSB

Saarbruchen

Nantes

IDF

Grenoble

Lyon

Montoellier

Orleans

Rouen

Strasbourg

Sheffield

Croydon

Manchester

Nottingham

West Midlands

Tyne and Wear

San Francisco

Philadelphia

Salt Lake City

San Diego

Sacramento

Galveston

Pittsburgh

Mem

phis

Baltimore

Dallas

Newark

Kenosha

Boston

Detroit

Portland

Los Angeles

St. Louis

San Jose

Cleveland

Denver

New Orleans

Buffalo

Newark

Seattle

Tram Track Km in Mixed Traffic

German Cities French Cities UK Cities USA Cities

Melbourne

Toronto

Source: Currie G and Shalaby A (2007) ‘Success and Challenges in Modernising Streetcar Systems – Experience in Melbourne and Toronto’

Transportation Research Record No 2006 Transportation Research Board Washington DC ISSN 0361-1981 pp 31-39 2007


Urban traffic congestion costs Melbourne $3B p.a. (2000) and will double by 2020

3

6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1995

2020

Cost of Urban Traffic Congestion - Melbourne

Cost $Aust Billion (2000)

Source: BTRE (2000)

Year

15


While all developed economies are affected, in Australia impacts are greater due to mega scale cities…


Outline

1. Introduction


3. Progress

4. Futures

17


Quantity of service has increased by 42% (57% bus) since 2001; but population has also grown

18

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2001-

2

2002-

3

2003-

4

2004-

5

2005-

6

2006-

7

2007-

8

2008-

9

2009-

10

2010-

11

Rail Tram Bus Total

Index of Public Transport Service Kms p.a (2001-2=100)

Year

Source: Department of Transport Annual Reports

Vehic

le K

ms p

.a. (2

001-2

=100)

3.58

3.633.68

3.74

3.8

3.87

3.95

4.04

4.11

4.17

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

4

4.1

4.2

4.3

2001-

2

2002-

3

2003-

4

2004-

5

2005-

6

2006-

7

2007-

8

2008-

9

2009-

10

2010-

11

520

Population Growth (M)

Year

Popula

tion (

M)


Per capita service has increased by 22% whilst per capita ridership has grown by 26% since 2001-2

19

Source: Department of Transport Annual Reports

100102 102

100101

105

108

112

115

122

100101

10099

102

110

116

123

126

121

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11

Service Supplied

Ridership

Year

Relative Service Level and Usage Per Head

Service Levels

and

Usage

Per Capita


Service Performance: mixed; signs of progress?

20

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Train (5:59) Train (4:59)

Tram (5:59) at dest Tram (4:59) at dest

Tram (5:59) average Tram (4:59) average

V/Line Passenger Rail Metro Buses

Service Punctuality - % Services On-Time

Source: Track Record


Service Performance: rail performance is mixed

21

Rail Service Reliability/Punctuality

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Metropolitan train service reliability by line (per cent)

% Timetable not delivered

% Network cancellations

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

Ma

r-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Jul-0

9

Sep-0

9

No

v-09

Jan-1

0

Ma

r-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Jul-1

0

Sep-1

0

No

v-10

Jan-1

1

Ma

r-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Jul-1

1

Sep-1

1

No

v-11

Jan-1

2

Ma

r-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Jul-1

2

Metropolitan train punctuality at destination by line (per cent)

On-Time to 4:59

On-Time to 5:59

Source: Track Record


Outline

1. Introduction


3. Progress

4. Futures

22


Melbourne is expected to increase in size by another 1.3M people in 20 years

23

0.35

0.67

0.98

1.27

1.55

1.82

2.08

2.33

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Growth

(M)

Year

Source: Victoria in Future (2012)

Forecast Melbourne Population

Population

Total (M)


Thats the same size as Adelaide; we are going to fit Adelaide into Melbourne in 20 years

24

Adelaide – Key Statistics

City

- Population 1.2M (2010)

- Share of PT Use = 3.7% (1999) -

Melbourne 9% (2008)

Public Transport System

- 6 heavy rail lines

- 3 light rail routes

- 130 bus routes

- 1 guided busway


Current committed plans for this growth in Melbourne is 2 bus routes and 1 rail line – woefully inadequate

25

Adelaide – Key Statistics

City

- Population 1.2M (2010)

- Share of PT Use = 3.7% (1999) -

Melbourne 9% (2008)

Public Transport System

- 6 Heavy Rail Lines

- 3 Light Rail Routes

- 130 Bus Routes

- 1 Guided Busway

Melbourne

Committed

Plans for Growth

1 Heavy Rail Line

0 Light Rail Routes

2 New Bus Routes

0 Guided Busways

Source: Currie G (2012) ‘Planning for decline on the Urban Fringe’ Planning News Vol 38 No 7 August 2012


Conclusions: Mixed bus positive historical performance but no planned future

� Melbourne public transport has done well historically in a car dominated city

� Medium term historical growth in service and ridership – above per capita growth;

– we will overtake ridership in Sydney and be Australias largest public transport city in the next 5 years

� Futures – very very poor; no committed plans despite considerable growth – we will go backwards unless some commitments are made

– We wouldnt even be able to match poor service in Adelaide with our committed growth in public transport

– This is an urgent need for our future

26

Source: Currie G (2012) ‘Planning for decline on the Urban Fringe’ Planning News Vol 38 No 7 August 2012


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