assessing the risk and poten0al of future vaccine markets · assessing the risk and poten0al of...

AssessingtheRiskandPoten0alofFutureVaccineMarketsClintonHealthAccessIni0a0ve(CHAI)DCVMNAnnualMee-ngBuenosAires,October2016

Agenda

1.   Frameworkforassessingriskandpoten0aloffuturevaccinemarkets

2.  Examplesofassessmentinputs

3.  Illustra0veassessmentoutputs

4.  Summary:“Knowthyself,knowthymarket”

Understanding key factors that drive expected return is needed to make investment decisions across disparate antigens (new or current) with multiple, shifting and non-quantifiable factors…

Probability of capturing return B

Low

High

Small Large

Poten-alreturndependson:•  Poten0alrevenue:Needforvaccine,popula0onsize,fundingetc.•  Poten0almargin:Geography,private/publicmarket,compe00on,etc.

Probabilityofrealizingreturndependson:•  Developmentrisks•  Poli0calsupport•  Manufacturing&

deliveryneeds•  Compe00vedynamics

Potential return A

Expectedreturn=Poten-alreturnXProbabilityofrealizingreturn

Lowermarketopportunity,lowfeasibility

“Longshots”

Lowpoten;alreturn,highfeasibility

“Cashcow/Quickwins”

Highmarketopportunity,low

feasibility

“High-risk/High-return”

Highpoten;alreturn,highfeasibility

“Toppriority”

Broadly,newan-genshavelesscompe--on-drivenrisk(i.e.,higherpoten-alreturnforearlyentrants),butalsohighertechnical,regulatoryandfundingrisks

A B

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… in addition, underlying management factors, e.g., competitive advantages, investment priorities, risk tolerances and long-term strategies, need to be taken into account

Man

agem

entcon

sidera;

ons Compe;;veAdvantages

•  CoreR&Dcapabili0es•  Manufacturingadvantage•  Markets/channelsstrength•  Func0onalexcellence

StrategicporFoliodecisions•  Fiscallimits•  Expansionvs.‘doublingdown’•  Balancingpor]olio

Risktolerance •  Companyrisklimitsandtolerance

Long-termstrategy•  Businessunitgoals•  Broadercompanystrategy

Assessingexpectedreturnandmanagementfactors(“knowthyself,knowthymarket”)enablecompaniesto•  Riskop-miza-onandporPolio

balancing•  Makeinformedgo/no-go‘best

guess’inhighlyuncertainandfluidspace

•  Alignpipelinewithbroadercompanystrategy

Agenda





Macro level trends around unmet needs, funding and delivery, target populations and rate of commoditization have important implications for portfolio development EXAMPLES

Unmetneeds

Rapidglobaliza-onandcommodi-za-on

Fundinganddeliverychallenges

•  Microbialresistancemakestreatmentincreasinglychallengingforbacterialdiseases

•  Increasingawarenessofthethreatofepidemics

•  Newmanufacturershaveimprovedcapabili-esandambi-onsforglobalmarketentry

•  Expecta0onofvaccineequity&ac-vemarket-shapingbyglobalpartners

•  Successfulentryoflow-costmanufacturers

•  ~70%ofGavicohortscheduledtograduatebymid-late2020’s

•  Poten0alforself-procuring

•  Newpipelinevaccineso`entargetpopula0onsacrosshumanlife

•  Partnerslookingtovaccinesevenforan-bio-c-treatablebacterialcondi-ons

•  Increasingawarenessofthethreatofepidemicsandneedforvaccineasahealthsecuritytool

•  Morerapidtransi0onfromdevelopmenttowidespreaduseinLMICmarkets

•  Awarenessofglobalnatureofcompe00onlandscapeneeded

•  NewdeliveryplaPormsfaceuptakerisks

Category Trend Implica;ons

•  Pricesensi-vity•  Poten0alfragmenta-onofmarketand

regulatoryrequirements

•  Manyproductss0lldonotmeetLMICneedsonefficacyandpresenta0on

•  Opportunitytoshi`largeLMICmarketswithop-mizeproducts

•  Morerapidcommodi-za-on

Agenda





Assessing individual candidates for relative return and probability of success is not purely a science and the tool is meant to be the basis for debate/discussion

•  Poten0alrevenue:Needforvaccine,popula0onsize,fundingprobability•  Poten0almargin:Geography,private/public,compe00on

•  Developmentrisks•  Poli0calsupport•  Manufacturing&delivery

needs•  Compe00vedynamics•  Management

considera0ons

Probabilityofrealizingreturn

Poten1alreturn

ILLUSTRATIVE

Current

Poten0al

Probabilityofcapturingreturn

High

Small Large

HIV

HepC

Shigella

RSV

MenACWY

Poten;alreturn

Dengue

Noro-virus

GBS

HPV2/4

NRRV

Low

HepE

Influenza

UnijectTd

BCG

Td

Part of the process is building hypotheses based on analyses about candidates, then testing key assumptions/hypotheses with experts and partners

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Extremelyhigh•  Hugeunmetdiseaseburden•  Diversemarkets•  Veryhighpoli0calwillandfunding

poten0al

Poten-alreturn Probabilityofrealizingreturn

UnijectTd

HIVFollo

w-

me

Extremelylow•  Veryhightechnicalrisks•  Poten0allylargeinvestment•  Adolescent/adultdelivery

Management&Conclusion

”Holdforfutureexplora-on”•  Long-termopportunity•  Interna0onalpartnerrela0ons

Low•  NichemarketforMNTelimina0on•  Somepoli0calwillandfundingpoten0al

Medium-Low•  Modestinvestment•  Short-0meline•  Domes0cmarket•  Maternaldelivery

“Quickwin”•  Poten0alquickwin

High-risk/return Highpriority

NRR

V

High-medium•  HighunmetneedinLMIC•  Historicprecedentforpathogen-area

funding

Medium•  High-mediuminvestment(EColipla]orm)•  Domes0cmarket•  Switchingrisks•  Infantschedule

“Poten-al”•  Highpoten0alvaccine•  Poten0alforcombinedvaccines•  EntrytoEDDmarkets

Noroviru

s Medium•  Likelylargebutunquan0fiedunmetneed•  Highlyinfec0ons,low/middleincomemarkets•  Fundingasyetunclear

Medium•  OnecandidateinPhaseIIIbutpipeline

scarce•  Highinvestment

“Poten-al”(alternate)•  Low-incomemarketversionneeded•  Poten0alforcombinedvaccines•  EntrytoEDDmarkets

ILLUSTRATIVE

Quickwins

Assessing individual candidates for relative return and probability of success is not purely a science and the tool is meant to be the basis for debate/discussion

•  Poten0alrevenue:Needforvaccine,popula0onsize,fundingsource•  Poten0almargin:Geography,compe00on

•  Developmentrisks•  Poli0calsupport•  Manufacturing&delivery

needs•  Compe00vedynamics•  Management

considera0ons


Poten1alreturn

Probabilityofcapturingreturn

High

Small Large

HIV

HepC

Shigella

RSV

MenACWY

Poten;alreturn

ILLUSTRATIVE

Dengue

Noro-virus

GBS

HPV2/4

Current

Poten0al

Explore

Exclude

NRRV

Low

HepE

Influenza

UnijectTd

BCG

Td

Agenda





Morefocused,responsive,op-mized

porPolios

Summary: Know thy self, know thy market

Knowthyself,knowthy

enemymarkets,

Andyouwillnotbeimperiledina100

baMles1

1Adaptedfromquote” ”fromSunTzu’s“TheArtofWar”

1.  Expectedreturn(“Knowthymarket”)

2.  Managementconsidera0ons(“Knowthy

self”)•  Compe;;veadvantages/weaknesses•  BalancingtheporFolio•  Risktolerance•  Overallstrategy

•  Clearlyar0cula0ngpriori0es•  Discussionsonrela0veweightof

intangiblesandtes0ngkeyassump0ons•  Engagementwithexpertsoncorefactors•  Itera0veprocesswherekeyevents

triggeringreassessment

Expectedreturn=Poten;alreturnX


Structuretoassessexpectedreturnsandstrategicimplica-on

Processesandmarketintelligencetodrivetoop-mized,company-specificdecisions

Gracias por su atención Thankyouforyouralen0onObrigadopelasuaatenção여러분의 관심에 감사드립니다感谢您的关注உŋகllகவனt()*ந,-ध्यानदेनेकेलिएआपकाधन्यवाद\

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KevinHoAssociate

VinitaVishwanarayanSeniorAssociate

Kar-ckKumarSeniorManager

NineSteensmaAssociateDirector

JoshuaChuSeniorDirector

SourabhSob-Manager

SheldonXieDirector

LilyZengSenioranalyst

Contactforfollow-upqueries:YanfengLin,PhDSeniorTechnicalAdvisorClintonHealthAccessIni0a0ve(CHAI)[email protected]

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