Assessing the Nuclear Crisis Threat in Japan

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Executive Summary – Likelihood of a Nuclear Full Meltdown

• A full meltdown is currently probable and increasingly likely (as of 0900 EDT).• In the event of a full meltdown, due to the reactor design a massive explosion and major

dispersion of particulate into the upper atmosphere is extremely unlikely.• There have been 4 separate explosions of the outer containment structure at three reactors

at Fukushima No. 1, and a fire at reactor 4; however, dispersion has been confined to well within the danger zone to that of less than 20 km (13 miles).

• In the event of a large explosion, the release of any significant radiation will be localized. The risk of a hazardous radiation extending beyond 150 – 200 km (93 – 124 miles) is extremely low.

• As of March 16, 0930 EDT there are no indicators that suggest that the inner core containment vessel has been breached.

• In general, the prevailing winds are carrying high altitude particulate eastward over the Pacific Ocean in a plume shape zone.

• The general consensus by US nuclear agencies is that the potential impact on Hawaii and the rest of the US is extremely low given the design of the reactor and the atmospheric dispersion.

• Many iJET clients have imposed no-go travel advisories for Japan. There are currently no indications that iJET clients have begun full-scale evacuations.

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Current Situation as of March 16, 0730 EDT• While indicators suggest radiation has been detected in Tokyo, the amounts are

currently trace and do not warrant significant concern. • An evacuation zone remains in effect in a 20 km (13 miles) radius around Fukushima

No. 1 and No. 2, with more than 170,000 people evacuated. Individuals in the 20-30 km (13-19 mile) radius have been advised to remain indoors.

• Aftershocks continue, with the US Geological Survey reporting at least 109 aftershocks of varying magnitude since the first earthquake. All tsunami warnings have been canceled.

• Food and bottled water shortages are occurring across the area (Miyagi, Fukushima, and Iwate prefectures), as are lingering power, rail, road, and telecommunications disruptions.

• Sources in Tokyo report that basic water and food supplies are sufficient and that, following the rush on some stores, efforts are now focused on resolving the lack of certain foods.

• Sendai Airport (SDJ) remains closed due to inundation. Flight operation from Tokyo’s Haneda Airport (HND) and Osaka International Airport (ITM) is functioning normally but getting crowded. Shinkansen "bullet trains", out of Tokyo to Osaka and Kyoto are currently open. The Shutoko Metropolitan Expressway remains closed between Kasai and Shin-Kiba-Locations close to Tokyo's Haneda Airport (HND).

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Current Advice• UC should have at ready information on all individuals associated with the EAP in Japan.• Evacuation of personnel from areas >150km (>124 miles) from reactors is not necessary nor

recommended.• Consider distributing factual advice about the current situation to allay or dispel any fears.• Those associated with the EAP should avoid nonessential travel to the affected zones. • Avoid the 30-km (19-mile) evacuation zone around Fukushima No. 1 and No. 2 facilities.

Radiation levels beyond the 30-km (19-mile) area are low enough so as not to pose significant health risks. Nevertheless, in Tokyo it is recommended that individuals limit their time outside, and close windows to their homes and workplaces.

• Anyone who has been within the evacuation radius and feels ill should immediately seek medical advice.

• Seek the advice of a healthcare professional prior to medicating for presumed radiation sickness or exposure.

• A number of email scams and fake text messages have been circulating in the Asia-Pacific region, especially the Philippines, Indonesia and Singapore. The messages warn that radiation from the Fukushima nuclear plant has leaked beyond Japan and urge people to take precautions against possible effects of radiation. All such messages are false and there is no need for individuals outside of Japan to take precautions at this time.

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Airport Update• Many flights from Tokyo are fully booked. The following airlines are

reporting adjustments: – Deutsche Lufthansa (LH): Daily flights to Tokyo diverted to Nagoya (NGO) and

Osaka (KIX) through at least March 20 – Air China (CA): Flights to Tokyo reduced – EVA Airways (BR): Flights to Tokyo reduced – Air France (AF): Some flights scheduling layovers at airports en route to Tokyo

to avoid overnight stays – Swiss International Air Lines (LX): Some flights scheduling layovers at airports

en route to Tokyo to avoid overnight stays – Thai Airways (TG): Flights with overnight stays in Tokyo rescheduled

• For travel out of Japan, consider cities west of Tokyo including that of Fukuoka and Osaka for temporary relocation given the presence of international airports and availability of flights abroad.

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Current Restricted Zone: 30 km (18 miles) around Onagawa and Fukushima No. 1 and 2 Nuclear Power Plants.

The Fukushima plants are approximately 240 km (150 miles) from Tokyo.

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In the Event of Catastrophic Release: 150 km (93 miles) radius around Onagawa and Fukushima No. 1 and 2 Nuclear Power Plants.

Note: Buffer Zones are meant to display relative distances only, the actual shape of a dispersal zone would not encompass such an area. Further, given prevailing winds, the direction would likely be easterly away from Honshu.

The Fukushima plants areapproximately 230 km (140 miles) from Tokyo.

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In the Event of Catastrophic Release: 200 km (124 miles) radius around Onagawa and Fukushima No. 1 and 2 Nuclear Power Plants. Such a zone threatens Tokyo.

Note: Buffer Zones are meant to display relative distances only, the actual shape of a dispersal zone would not encompass such an area. Further, given prevailing winds, the direction would likely be easterly away from Honshu.

The Fukushima plants are approximately approximately 230 km (140 miles) from Tokyo.