assessing the consequences of climate change on cocoa and tomato production in trinidad & tobago...
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Climate Impacts and Resilience in Caribbean Agriculture: Assessing the consequences of climate change on cocoa
and tomato production in Trinidad & Tobago and Jamaica (CIRCA)
WP2 – Crop-Climate Suitability ModelingAnton Eitzinger, Stephania Carmona, Karolina Argote, Peter Laderach, Andy Jarvis
[email protected] University of west Indies, January, 2015
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Project background and goals
• Identification of suitable climate proof cultivars for cocoa and tomato to increase resilience of Caribbean agriculture
• Increase the dialogue between Cocoa and Tomato growers and researchers within the region.
• Inform of national climate compatible policies and risk communication strategies
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Project work packages• WP 1: Climate Proof Screen
– Establish a set of protocols over several experimental runs to test cultivars
– Screening of commonly grown cultivars and exploring the range of genetic variability
– Test selected cultivars for heat and drought stress
• WP 2: Crop-Climate Suitability Modeling– Create climate data baseline using interpolation of Worldclim
data and local weather station data.– Downscaling of future model predictions from GCM/RCM IPCC
AR5– Use climate requirements for cultivars from WP 1 to run Ecocrop
model
• WP 3: Socio-economic Analysis– Socio-economic survey– Advice policy makers
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WP2 – Crop-Climate Suitability Modeling
• Introduction: CIAT - CCAFS
• Generation of climatological baseline through interpolation of weather station data
• Generation of future climate data
• Impact of climate change in tomato and cocoa crops using crop model Ecocrop
• Conclusions and way forward
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http://ccafs.cgiar.org
CCAFS: the partnership! The largest global
coalition of scientists working on developing-
country agriculture and climate change
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2013
1. What is Climate Smart Agriculture?
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2013
Why is CSA important? – Food SecurityMaíz
T-Max
T-Max
Yield Yield
Arroz
Climate drives yield variation: our systems are sensitive to climate, not resilient to it
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CIRCA project: Methods & results
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Interpolation of climate baseline
• The database of weather stations provided by the CIRCA project and quality control.
• The database STRM elevation of 30 arc-second resolution.• Generate interpolated climate surfaces using ANUSPLIN-
SPLINA with weather station data
following methodology as described by Hijmans et al (2005)
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Stations by variable:
• 47,554precipitation
• 24,542 tmean
• 14,835 tmax y tmin
Sources:•GHCN•FAOCLIM•WMO•CIAT•R-Hydronet•Redes nacionales
-30.1
30.5
Mean annual
temperature (ºC)
0
12084
Annual
precipitation (mm)
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Station data received from UWI and cross-validation of interpolated monthly climate surfaces for monthly accumulated rainfall and maximum and minimum temperature.
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Result: monthly climate baseline
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Observe climate Model climate
Generation of future climate data: Circulation models from IPCC AR5
Delta method to downscale
Ramirez-Villegas J, Jarvis A (2010) Downscaling Global Circulation Model Outputs: The Delta Method
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Suitability modeling with EcocropEcoCrop, originally by Hijman et al. (2001), was further developed, providing calibration and evaluation procedures (Ramirez-Villegas et al. 2011).
It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation…
…and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…
How does it work?
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𝑇𝑘𝑖𝑙𝑙 = 4 + Tkill(initial)
𝑇𝑘𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑇𝑚𝑖𝑛
𝑇𝑜𝑝𝑚𝑖𝑛
𝑇𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝑇𝑜𝑝𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝑇(𝑋) − 𝑇𝑚𝑖𝑛
𝑇𝑜𝑝𝑚𝑖𝑛 − 𝑇𝑚𝑖𝑛= 𝑇𝑠𝑢𝑖𝑡 1 −
𝑇(𝑋) − 𝑇𝑜𝑝𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝑇𝑚𝑎𝑥 − 𝑇𝑜𝑝𝑚𝑎𝑥= 𝑇𝑠𝑢𝑖𝑡
𝑇𝑠𝑢𝑖𝑡 = 0
𝑇𝑠𝑢𝑖𝑡 = 100
For temperature suitabilityKtmp: absolute temperature that will kill the plant Tmin: minimum average temperature at which the plant will grow Topmin: minimum average temperature at which the plant will grow optimally Topmax: maximum average temperature at which the plant will grow optimally Tmax: maximum average temperature at which the plant will cease to growFor rainfall suitabilityRmin: minimum rainfall (mm) during the growing season Ropmin: optimal minimum rainfall (mm) during the growing season Ropmax: optimal maximum rainfall (mm) during the growing season Rmax: maximum rainfall (mm) during the growing season Length of the growing seasonGmin: minimun days of growing seasonGmax: maximum days of growing season
P𝑚𝑖𝑛
P𝑜𝑝𝑚𝑖𝑛
P𝑚𝑎𝑥
P𝑜𝑝𝑚𝑎𝑥
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The results can be seen through the maps:
TSUIT = suitability by temperature (0-100)
GSTMEAN = Better growing season (0:12), thenumber indicating that the start of growing seasonin that month provides the best conditions respectto temperature
In the example:TSUIT = 0.6 (60%) and GSTMEAN = 2
How it works??
0.3
0.3
The suitability for each month iscalculated according to the meantemperature value of the pixel
Select the lowest suitability for eachof the 12 potential growing seasons,according to the length of thegrowing season of the crop (months)
The final temperature suitability isthe maximum value of all growingseasons
Temperature:
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The results can be seen through the maps:
RSUIT = suitability by rainfall (0-100) %
GSRAIN = Better growing season (0:12), the numberindicating that the start of growing season in thatmonth provides the best conditions respect to rainfall
In the example:RSUIT = 0.9 (90%) and GSRAIN = 12
How it works??
205
14
0
The final rainfall suitability is themaximum value of all growingseasons
Precipitation:
The evaluation for rainfall is similaras for temperature, except thatthere is one evaluation for the totalgrowing season through the totalcumulative rain of the growingseason of the crop (months)and not for each month.
Monthly rain (mm)
Cumulative growing season rain
Suitability of GS
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Finally the interaction (product) is calculated between the suitability of temperature and precipitation for each growing season
𝑇1𝑆𝑈𝐼𝑇*𝑅1𝑆𝑈𝐼𝑇; 𝑇2𝑆𝑈𝐼𝑇*𝑅2𝑆𝑈𝐼𝑇; 𝑇3𝑆𝑈𝐼𝑇∗𝑅3𝑆𝑈𝐼𝑇; … ; 𝑇12𝑆𝑈𝐼𝑇∗𝑅12𝑆𝑈𝐼𝑇
The final suitability will be the best result of the 12 products calculated
In the example, GS2 is the best season for temperature (60%) and GS12 forprecipitation (90%). For interaction of two variables the better suitability (45%) isobtained also in the growing season 12 (GSSUIT = 12)
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Modeling of potential future impacts on crop suitability: Results
• Climate data from UWI climate data group
• Climate parameters from WP 1
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Cocoa: Trinidad Hybrid & Upper Amazon
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Cocoa: Lower Amazon
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Tomato
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Inter annual variability in Trinidad & Tobago
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Cocoa: Trinidad Hybrid & Upper Amazon
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Cocoa: Lower Amazon
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Tomato
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Inter annual variability in Trinidad & Tobago
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Impact of climate change in T&T and Jamaica
(Conclusions)
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Participatory local adaptation plans
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4. Farmers test and report back by mobile phone
2. Each farmer gets a different combination of varieties
3. Environmental data (GPS, sensors) to assess adaptation
1. A broad set of varieties isevaluated
6. Detect demand for new varieties and traits
5. Farmers receive tailored variety recommendations and can order seeds
Farmers as Scientists!
Outscaling a citizen science approach to test climate adaptation technologies on farms :Jacob Van Etten, BioversityInternational
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• Registering farmer in the system
• Managing data collection of farmers experiments(surveys, spatial information, …)
• Monitoring CSA implementation projects(activity reports, feedback loops with experts)
Use ICT tools for crow sourcing and M&E