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Assessing high shares of renewable energies in urban district heating
systems – A case study for the city of Herten in Germany
Bozen, 23.03.2017Jan Steinbach, Ali Aydemir, Tobias Fleiter
Eftim Popovski, Daniel BellstädtFraunhofer ISI
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Outline
The progRESsheat project
Case study: City of Herten
Simulation of spatial heating demand
Decarbonisation of district heating grid
Objectiv of theprogRESsheat project
Supporting policy stakeholder on local, regional and national level in the development of integrated strategies for the market uptake of renewable energy solution and efficiency measures in the heating and cooling sector
Implementation of national heating and cooling plans on national level
Strong involvement of national and local policy makers Transfer of knowledge from local level to national policy
making Capacity building training, webinars
Six European countries andlocal case studies
Schedule and partner
• March 2015 – October 2017• Project Partner:
#5
Communication process
Introduction, discussion of relevant research questions
Discussion of draft results, further scenario analysis
Discussion of final results and
recommendations
The progRESsheat project
Case study: City of Herten
Simulation of spatial heating demand
Decarbonisation of district heating grid
Outline
Herten – Current situation
• 60.000 inhabitants• Shrinking city: since 1990 ~11% loss of
inhabitants• Structural changes: shut down of coal
mine shift towards tertiary sector• Climate action plan: reduction of 95%
GHG emissions by 2050 • Building structure
– City center:large apartment buildings from 1960s to 1980s
– Outskirts: Mainly single family housing or rather small apartment buildings
• Energy carrier for heating– Natural Gas: 47%– District heating 28 %– Heating oil 16 %
• District heating– 95 % coal– Interconnected to neighbor cities and large
generation unitsSource: Jung Stadtkonzepte 2013
• How feasible is the deployment of renewable heating in Herten in the long-term ?
• What role might the DH network play with regard to the deployment of RES heating Herten ?
• What might be the impact of falling heat demand due to better insulation with regard to RES heat generation units in the DH network ?
• What are main challenges with regard to the deployment of RES in the DH network in Herten ?
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Research questions
1. Construction of a detailed building stock model for Herten using remote sensing together with a typology for the German building stock.
2. Applying a bottom-up simulation model to calculate the development of heating energy demand until 2050 on a individual building level
3. Design of a potential new mix of new renewable generation units for the DH considering hourly demand profiles
4. Assessment of the new generation mix with regard to cost of heat and CO2 reduction for four scenarios.
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Methodology
Development of a GIS basedbuilding stock analysis
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Building type 2014
[kWh/m2a]
2030
[kWh/m2a]
2050
[kWh/m2a]
Detached
house
185 115 89
Terraced
house
150 97 81
Apartment
building
150 85 64
Large
apartment
83 64 54
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Fina
l ene
rgy de
man
d [GWh]
detached houses terraced housessmall apartment buildings medium apartment buildings
• 1.5 % Average rate of modernization• 0.5 % New construction rate• 0.4 % Demolition rate
Development of Final Energy Demand for space heating in Herten
Spacial simulation of space heatingdemand
20502014
5‐Apr‐17
• No additional district heating expansion.• Relative share of connected houses remains constant
District heating share 2014 2030 2050
All Buildings 28 % 36 % 63 %
Detached house 14 % 14 % 14 %
Terraced house 25 % 25 % 91 %
Apartment building 40 % 59 % 100 %
Large apartment building 55 % 100 % 100 %
Scenario 1:DH decline
Scenario 2:DH expansion
• Connecting of additional buildings to DH • Total heat demand from DH remains constant up until 2050
Scenario defintion for districtheating
Analysis of DH supply options with RES
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• RES technologies chosen for the analysis– Solar thermal district heating including storage– Large heat pumps
• Design approach for system size– Sizing solar field and storage is modeled by minimizing LCOH – Thermal capacity of the heat pump is set, so that the RES heat fraction is
maximized for the combined system as much as possible
• Dispatch of DH options– Applying the EnergyPRO model based on hourly load profiles
Source: Feinkonzept KWK Modellkommune Herten 05.04.2017 16
100 % RES supply in DH subsystem
Network temperature 80 °C
Network temperature 100 °C
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Herten South
• All districts supplied with heat from the waste incineration plant
Modeled District Heating Network
Sizing solar thermal field
Example sub‐system „Innenstadt“
• Across all sizes: LCOH range from 20‐30 euros/MWh
• Solar fraction of ~20% can be achievedat ~20 euros/MWh LCOH
• < 4,000 m²: systems without thermal storage have lowest LCOH
• 4000 – 25,000 m²: systems with 2,000 m³ thermal storage have lowest LCOH
• Sufficient agricultural land is available
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 1 2 4 8 12 16 20 24 28
Solar F
raction
LCOH [E
UR/
MWh]
Solar field size [1000 m2]
Herten North (Innenstadt)
Solar Fraction with 10 000 m³ Solar Fraction with 2 000 m³
Solar Fraction with 0 m³ LCOH with 0 m³
LCOH with 2 000 m³ LCOH with 10 000 m³
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
‐ 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
3.5 7.0 10.5 14.0 17.5 21.0
Hea
t Fraction
Instaled Capacity [MW]
CHP ScholvenSolar
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Type of cost ValueInvestment 1 500 EUR/kW
Fix O&M 1 % of Inv.
Variable O&M 3 EUR/MWh
Interest rate 1,5 %
Lifetime 20 years
*Electricityprice
113,9 EUR/ MWh
LCOH 60 – 80 EUR/MWh
Heat Pump analysis
‐ 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
020406080
100120140
2011
2018
2023
2028
2033
2038
2043
2048
Hea
t Produ
citon [M
Wh]
LCOH [E
UR/
MWh] Scenario 2
‐ 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
020406080
100120140
2011
2018
2023
2028
2033
2038
2043
2048
Hea
t Produ
ction [M
Wh]
LCOH [E
UR/
MWh]
Scenario 1Total Heat Production from RES [MWh]Overall LCOH [eur/MWh]
Status quo
Status quo
Development of levelised cost of heating from district heating
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Main results of economic analysis
Levelised cost of energy in decarbonized DH system with 100 % RES • Significant increase with falling heat demand (Scenario 1)• No increase is possible if heat demand can kept on current level
(Scenario 2)Expansion of dh connection is crucial• Connecting of additional buildings can keep heat demand on
constant level until 2050 Socio-economic perspective in heating and cooling planning• Consideration of energy prices increase over time• socio-economic interest rate of 1.5%
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