asmus - kugler - larabee.pdf

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Building a New NATO Ronald D Asmus^ Richard L ugler and E Stephen Larrahee A NEW TRANSATLANTIC BARGAIN THREE YEARS AFTER the fall of the Berlin Wall, Europe is headed toward crisis. Memories of democracy s triumph have faded. The immense problems facing the new democracies in the East are increasingly compounded by poUtical gridlock, economic recession and resurgent nationalism. The revolutions of 1989 not only toppled communism; they unleashed a set of dynamics that have unraveled the peace orders of Yalta and Versailles. War in the Balkans, instability in East-Central Europe and the former Soviet Union, growing doubts about the European Community s future as well as the future role of the United States—all underscore the lack of any stable post- Cold War European security order. Nationalism and ethnic conflict have already led to two world wars in Europe. Whether Europe unravels for a third time this century depends on if the West summons the political will and strategic vision to address the causes of potential instability and conflict before it is too late. A new U.S.-European strategic bargain is needed, one that extends NATO S collective defense and security arrangements to those areas where the seeds for future conflict in Europe lie: the Atlantic alliance s eastern and southern borders. RONALD D. ASMUS, RICHARD L. KUGLER AND F. STEPHEN LARRABEE are senior analysts at RAND. The views and conclusions expressed are their own and should not be interpreted as representing the views of R N D or any other agency sponsoring its research. [ ]

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