asean - mercosur: unlocking the potential of …...trade agenda •measures aimed at defining and...
TRANSCRIPT
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ASEAN - MERCOSUR:
Unlocking the potential of economic cooperation
March 6, 2017
Ignacio Bartesaghi, PhD
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Contents of presentation
• Introduction to Mercosur process.
• Mercosur – ASEAN: dimension of the regional blocs.
• Potential in the relationship.
• Significance of integration models.
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• 1985 – Foz do Iguaçu Declaration
• 1986 – Argentina-Brazil Integration & Economic Cooperation Programme (“PICAB”).
Uruguay was already part of the Trade Expansion Protocol (Brazil) and CAUCE (Argentina)
Background
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Legal framework
• Asuncion Treaty (1991).
• Ouro Preto Protocol (1994).
• Ushuaia Protocol (1998).
• Olivos Protocol (2002).
• Constitutive Protocol of the Mercosur Parliament (2006).
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Asuncion Treaty
• The origin of Mercosur.
• Definition of the bloc’s objectives.
• Definition of Trade Liberalization Programme for the transition period (Annexes).
• Definition of transitional bodies.
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Ouro Preto Protocol (1994)
• Conveys legal entity status to Mercosur.
• Defines institutional structure.
• Adoption of instruments from the typical trade policy of Customs unions.
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Ushuaia Protocol
• Relates to democratic commitment within MERCOSUR.
• Consists of two protocols: Ushuaia I, and Ushuaia II.
• Includes participation of Chile and Bolivia.
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Olivos Protocol
• Substitutes the Brasilia Protocol.
• Defines the Mercosur Controversy Settlement System.
• Creates the Permanent Review Tribunal (“TPR”).
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Process
26/3/1991 Asuncion
Treaty
DEC 1994
Ouro Preto Protocol
1999 – Start of
negotiations with EU
Devaluation of Real.
2002 –
Olivos Protocol
Argentina – Uruguay
Crisis
2006 Constitutive Protocol of
ParlaSur
2010 – Negotiations are resumed with the EU
2012 – Paraguay is suspended Inclusion
of Venezuela
2016 – Venezuela
is suspended
FTZ CU
Agreements were subscribed with Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador.
Agreements were subscribed with Cuba, India, Israel, SACU, Egypt and Palestine.
Transition
Consolidation
FOCEM
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Objectives
Constitution of a Common Market:
Free circulation of goods, services and factors of
production.
Common external tariff and common commercial
policy.
Coordination of sectorial and macro-economic
policies.
Harmonized legislations.
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Decision making
• 3 bodies with decision-making powers:
Common Market Council.
Common Market Group.
Mercosur Trade Commission.
• Consensus with the presence of all members.
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Decisions within Mercosur
64%10%
11%
15%
Institucional y política
FOCEM
Económica y comercial
Agenda externa
0
5
10
15
20
25
FOCEM Institucional Política y social Económica y comercial
Agenda externa
2013 2014 2015
Mercosur politicization process in the last years. Now
we are in a new context.
Source: personal compilation based on data from Mercosur Secretariat.
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• Trade Agenda: current trade agenda and recently-approved decisions.
• Political Agenda: adhesion of new members.
Implications and challenges (Venezuela and Bolivia or in the future Ecuador).
• Production Agenda: actions carried forward in the framework of productive integration.
Mercosur Agenda: general aspects (I)
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Mercosur Agenda: general aspects (II)
• Social Agenda: inclusion of social dimension. Institutional and regulatory advances in line with the social agenda.
• Institutional Aspects: institutional advances in
Mercosur’s new agenda. Creation of permanent instances.
• New actors: civil society, sub-national actors, political
parties.
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Trade Agenda
• Measures aimed at defining and perfecting the Customs union.
• 1994: approval of common external tariff (Dec. 22/94).
• At present, there are exceptions to Customs union and to the free trade area.
• 2015: intention to define a consolidation programme for the Customs union (Dec. 56/10).
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• Ouro Preto Protocol conveys legal entity status
for negotiating agreements with extra-zone
countries or groups of countries.
• Decision N° 32/00 – Reasserts commitment of
joint negotiations for trade agreements.
• There are exceptions: Uruguay – Mexico FTA,
Uruguay-U.S.A. TIFA.
External Agenda
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• Agreements within the LAIA framework. • Agreements with extra-regional countries: India (2004), Israel
(2007), South African Customs Union– SACU (2009), Egypt (2010), Palestine (2011).
• Framework agreements: South Africa, Marrakech, Pakistan,
Jordan, Turkey, Syria, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Korea (MoU), Russia (MoU), Singapore (MoU), Tunisia, Lebanon (MoU).
• Agreements under negotiations: European Union and the
expansion of Mercosur – India agreement.
Agreements negotiated by Mercosur
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Chile and Bolivia
CAN and Peru
Cuba
India
Israel
SACU
Egypt
Palestine
No agreements in place with developed world powers like the U.S.A.,
the EU, or Asian powers.
Trade Agreements
We are starting new negotiations with EFTA.
Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina are observers of the Pacific Alliance.
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Conclusions
• Original objectives were not attained.
• There are strengths in the political and social areas, but weaknesses in the economic and trade areas.
• New context and some uncertainties about the future.
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MERCOSUR – ASEAN (Year 2015)
Source: DNII based on World Bank, International Monetary Fund and Trade Map.
Population (million inhabitants) 922.936
GIP (millions of USD at current prices) 5.115.695
Share of world's GIP 7%
Average per capita GIP (USD at current
prices) - Year 19953.131
Average per capita GIP (USD at current
prices) - Year 201510.582
Total ASEAN + MERCOSUR exports (millions
of USD)1.491.962
Total ASEAN + MERCOSUR imports (millions
of USD)1.403.013
Share of exports in of world's overall trade 9%
Share of imports in of world's overall trade 9%
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Populational evolution in ASEAN and MERCOSUR
Source: DNII based on World Bank.
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ASEAN – MERCOSUR Trade (Thousands of USD, informed by ASEAN members)
Source: DNII based on Trade Map.
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Source: DNII based on Trade Map.
ASEAN – MERCOSUR Trade
Yearly variation
2001 - 2015
ASEAN imp. from Mercosur 17%
ASEAN exp. to Mercosur 14%
World ASEAN imp. 9%
World ASEAN exp. 8%
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MERCOSUR’s share in the ASEAN
0,0%
0,2%
0,4%
0,6%
0,8%
1,0%
1,2%
1,4%
1,6%
1,8%
2,0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Part. Mercosur en Impo totales ASEAN
Part. Mercosur en Expo totales ASEAN
Source: DNII based on Trade Map.
MERCOSUR participation in total imports from ASEAN
MERCOSUR participation in total exports from ASEAN
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ASEAN’s share in the MERCOSUR
Source: DNII based on Trade Map.
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
7,0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Part. ASEAN en expo totales del Mercosur
Part. ASEAN en impo totales del MercosurASEAN participation in total imports from MERCOSUR
ASEAN participation in total exports from MERCOSUR
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Source: DNII, based on data from Doing Business and World Economic Forum.
Business context
Country
Position in the 2016 Global
Competitiveness Index (World
Economic Forum)
Position in Doing Business
2016 (World Bank)Average Integration process
Singapore 2 2 2 ASEAN
Malaysia 18 23 21 ASEAN
Thailand 32 46 39 ASEAN
Chile 35 57 46 Pacific Alliance
Mexico 57 47 52 Pacific Alliance
Colombia 61 53 57 Pacific Alliance
Peru 69 54 62 Pacific Alliance
Indonesia 37 91 64 ASEAN
Vietnam 56 82 69 ASEAN
The Philippines 47 99 73 ASEAN
Uruguay 73 90 82 MERCOSUR
Brazil 75 123 99 MERCOSUR
Cambodia 90 131 111 ASEAN
Laos 83 139 111 ASEAN
Argentina 106 116 111 MERCOSUR
Paraguay 118 106 112 MERCOSUR
Bolivia 117 149 133 MERCOSUR
Myanmar 131 170 151 ASEAN
Venezuela 131 187 159 MERCOSUR
Brunei* - 72 - ASEAN
*No data is available for Brunei regarding the Global Competitiveness Index for 2016
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Main products traded
Source: DNII, based on Trade Map.
Chapter Description
23 Trash, food industry waste, animal food.
10 Cereals.
27 Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products from their distillation.
12 Oleaginous seeds and fruits, various seeds and fruits.
26 Minerals, slag and ash.
Main products imported by ASEAN from MERCOSUR
Chapter Description
85 Machinery, and electrical devices and materials, and their parts; recording devices.
84 Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers, mechanical devices and artifacts.
87 Automotives, tractors, cycles, other ground vehicles, and their parts.
40 Rubber and rubber manufactured products.
64 Shoes, puttees, boots and similar items, and their parts.
Main products exported by ASEAN to MERCOSUR
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Integration models
Source: De María, N. Pereira, M. (2016). “Estrategias de inserción internacional del MERCOSUR y la ASEAN”.
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Bilateral agreements subscribed by ASEAN members
Source: DNII, based on WTO.
Country RTA notified to the WTO,
currently in place
Brunei 2
Cambodia 0
The Philippines 1
Indonesia 1
Laos 1
Malaysia 5
Myanmar 0
Singapore 15
Thailand 4
Vietnam 3
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Potentials
• Diversification of trade opportunities:
– Exports of added-value food to the ASEAN.
– La ASEAN as supplier of low, medium, and high technology industrial goods.
– Opportunities in productive complementation for some industrial sectors.
– Participation in global value chains.
• Services.
• Investments (infrastructure).
• Exchange of best practices.
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ASEAN - MERCOSUR:
Unlocking the potential of economic cooperation
March 6, 2017
Ignacio Bartesaghi, PhD