asean and pacific alliance in the dynamic asia
TRANSCRIPT
I.Introduc3on• Theglobaleconomiclandscapeischangingfastbecauseofnewtechnologiesandgovernmentpolicies.
• Eachgovernmentandbusinessconcernshoulddefinetheirfuturedesirableposi3onanddetermineac,onstheyshouldtakeindividuallyandjointlywithpoten3alpartnerstoaKainthetarget.
• Therearemanynichesforpartnershipbetweenmediumsizegroupinthetwocon,nentslikeASEANandPacificAlliance(PA).
II. TheDynamicAsia• Asiaisthesourceofglobaleconomicgrowthinthenext–almost50%;
• Asianeedstobemoreintegratedtorealizethispoten,al.
• ManyfactorswilldefinethefutureofAsia.
• ASEANisthenaturalhubforthisexercise.
-Top20countriescontribute81%,astop10countriescontributes69%andtop5countriescontributes59%-Amongtop5,3arefromAsiaandcontributeabout37%.-ASEANcontributesUS$1,328billionor6%,withIndonesiaandPhilippinesinthetop20.-Thailandranks34with0.4%contribu,on.-Chileranks40with0.32%contribu,on.
SourceofGlobalGDPGrowth
FactorsAffec3ngtheFutureofAsia
Popula'ondynamics• Unevengrowth,aging,urbaniza,on,middle-classTechnologicaladvances• Informa,on,energy,othersScarcityofResources• Land,water,minerals,• Eco-system,climatechange;InadequateIns'tu'ons- Needefficientgovernancesystemforsustainableoutcome.
Implica3onsandResponsesNewdirec'onofcommerce• Tradeingoods,services• Capitalandinvestment• LabormovementHarnessingPopula'onDynamic• Managingmigra,onNon-tradi'onalSecuri'es• Food,energy,finance,connec,vity,healthDeployingNewTechnology• Connec,vityinfrastructure,improvingappropriateskillsCrea'ngappropriateins'tu'ons• Involvingtheprivatesectors• Adop,ngprincipleofgoodgovernanceinboththeprivateandpublicsector
GrowthofWorkingPopula3on
Source:WorldDevelopmentIndex,WorldBank,2013andWorldEconomicOutlook,IMFApril2017.
• Asiashareabout45%ofglobalpopula,onincrease,withSouthAsiashare27%oftheincrease.
• AginginNEAsiaandnotinSouthAsia.• Workingpopula,oninNEAsiawilldeclineandbecome
nega,veby2030.
Unit:Millionpeople
36
111513
2633
384548
100
131921
3337
495556
100
43
Singapore ASEANCambodiaMyanmarLaosVietnamPhilippinesThailandIndonesiaMalaysia
More than 90 million people are expected to move to ASEAN cities by 2030
Shareofcountrypopula3onlivinginci3esofmorethan200,000inhabitants,2013–301%
Cities with >200,000 inhabitants in 2013
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute Cityscope database; national statistics offices; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
1Bruneinotincludedasthecountryhasnoci,eswithpopula,on>200,000.NOTE:Numbersmaynotsumduetorounding.
128 11 15 934 1531 1 235
2013
2030
Urbaniza3on
TechnologicalAdvances• DigitaleraandInforma,onmanagement
– FINTEC,InternetofThings(IOT),Robo,c– Newmanagementsystemforindividual,businessandstates.
• Newagricultureandfoodmarket– Farmers’accesstoproduc,onandmarke,nginforma,on– Consumersaremoreeducated,healthconsciousandaccesstoproduc,oninforma,on.
• Energytechnology– Energyproduc,on,u,liza,onandstorage
• Nanotechnology– Food,tex,le,energy
Emergingmarkethasmorechancetoadoptnewtechnologybecausetheycanjumpstart.Forexample,ElectricVehicle(EV),GRAB,etc.
ScarcityofResources
Increaseindemandfrommorepopula,onandhigherincomearesetagainst:• Produc,onresources
– Land,water(inChinaandIndia),minerals
• Worseningglobalclimate– Globalwarming
• Expansionofdemand– Intensifica,onofconsump,onasincomerises.
InadequateIns,tu,ons
• Morepoli,caltensions–inequality,injus,ce,religiousdifference;
• Needsinnova,veeconomic,poli,calandsocialins,tu,onsatlocal,na,onalandinterna,onallevelstoensuregoodgovernance.
• Publicsectoradjustmentisslowandneedtodelegatemorerolestoprivatesector.
Andean
NAFTA
Mercosur SACU
EU
ASEAN
SAARC
NewTrendofTrade:RecentYears
Source:TradeMapsdatabase,ITC,June2016
TradebetweenEastandSouthAsia
-Newindustrialdevelopmentopportuni,es,e.g.,auto-Newinfrastructurestosupportthetraderoute*-road,rail,broadband,airports,seaports,energygridetc.
NeedsInvolvementofPrivateSector
SOURCE:ASEANSecretariat;WorldBank
8
4
3
2
23
2
29
2
2
52
4
22
Total
40
1
3
1
ThailandLaoPDRPhilippines
9
VietNamIndonesia
7
1
1
Myanmar
2
1 1
Malaysia Brunei
2
1 1
Cambodia
EnergyPort AirportRailRoad
Numberofprojects1
1Infrastructureprojectswerepriori,sedbytheWorldBankbasedon2criteria:(1)RelevanceforASEANconnec,vity;and(2)AhighormediumpriorityforASEANMemberStates.
TheWorldBankhasiden,fied40poten,alPPPprojectswhichhavestrongregionalrelevanceinASEAN
III.ASEANandPacificAlliance• Although,tradeingoodsisandwillremainlimitedbecauseof
thedistance,bothsidescanbeaspringboardforeachothertoaccessothersmarkets.
• Otherareasthatmayhavemorepoten,al–notaffectedbydistance.– Tradeinservices– Investment– Capitalmarket
• Otherareasofcoopera,on– Globalandregionalfinancialmarket.
Tradeinservices• Tradeinserviceshasmanyopportuni,estooffer:
– ASEANimportsUS$324billionandexportsUS$322worthofservicesin2016.
– ChileimportsUS$13.07billionexportsUS$9.6billion– ColombiaimportsUS$10.81billionsandexports$7.79billion– MexicoimportsUS$31.9billionandexportsUS$24.07billion– PeruimportsUS$7.96billionandexportsUS$6.3billion.
• Servicetrademaynotbeaffectedbydistanceasmuchasgoodstrade.
• Newkindofservicesarefollowingtheadvanceindigitaltechnology.
Sometradi3onalservicesectors• Construc,on
– Inthecomingdecade,ASEANwillbeinves,ngheavilyoninfrastructure.
– Newinnova,vefinancialandarrangementofcross-borderprojectscanbeaniche.
• Tourism– Hotelmanagementandtouristdes,na,ons.
• Sportsandentertainment– FootballfromChileandMuayThaifromThailand
IV.Someongoingprojects
• Regionalconnec,vityprojects:– EconomicCorridors-GMS
• EachASEANcountryiscrea,ngprojecttolinkintotheASEANsystem:– IskandarMalaysia– PublicprojectsinIndonesia–Port,MetroandFlyover;
– InfrastructureprojectsinthePhilippines– EasternEconomicCorridor(EEC),Thailand.
EconomicCorridors:GMSandIndiaGMS:1) 3East-WestEconomic
Corridors(EWEC);2) 3North-SouthCorridors
NSEC);India-Myanmar-Thailandhasbeencompleted.
IskandarMalaysiaIskandarMalaysiaaimstobe“AStrongandSustainableMetropolisofInterna,onalStanding”bytheyearof2025.2,217squarekilometresPopula,on:1.8million2015-3million2025GPP/captoincreaseto$31,100by2025ZoneA,afinancialdistrict,thecentralbusinessdistrict,thewaterfrontcity,amixeddevelopmentattheMalaysia/SingaporeCauseway.ZoneBisamedicalhub,an"educity",aresortforinterna,onaltourismandanindustriallogis,cclusterandresidence.ZoneCfocusesonthesecondtransporta,onlinkportforMalaysia/Singaporeandafreetradezone.ZoneDfocusesontheportandindustrialzone,TechnologyParkandaregionaldistribu,oncentre.ZoneSenai-Skudai,focusesontheSenaiInterna,onalAirport,hubsforcargoandknowledge,amul,modalcentreandtheMSCCyberportcity hKp://iskandarmalaysia.com.my/
PublicProjectsoftheIndonesianGovernment
NewPriokPort,JakartaAnextensionofthecurrentTanjungPriokharbourinNorthJakarta,Indonesia'sbusiesttradingport.ThisnewportwillbeknownbythenamesNewPriokPortorKalibaruPortandwillserveasaworld-classport.Theconstruc,onofthismega-projectstartedin2012andcomple,onisexpectedby2023.
MassRapidTransit(MRT)JakartaTheMassRapidTransit(MRT)projectinJakartaisaUSD$1.7billioninfrastructureprojectthataimstorelievegreattrafficconges,oninIndonesia’scapitalcity.Whenfullyopera,onal,theMRTwillbeabletotransportabout450,000passengersperday.TheMRTconsistsoftwocorridors:(1)theNorth-Southcorridorand(2)theEast-Westcorridor.Currently,theNorth-Southcorridorisbeingconstructed.Thiscorridorwillbebuiltintwophases.
FlyoverRoads(Non-Toll),JakartaTheFlyoverRoadsprojectinJakartacons,tutestwoaddi,onalnon-tollroadsonanal,tudeoftenmetersabovetheexis,ngroadsthatconnectBlokMtoAntasariinSouthJakartaandTanahAbanginCentralJakartatoKampungMelayuinEastJakarta.ThisUSD$140.8millionpublicprojectaimsatreducingtheconstantandgravetrafficconges,oninpartsofJakartabyaddingoversevenkilometersofroadtoitsinfrastructure.
InfrastructureprojectsinthePhilippines
ForpossibleJapanesefinancing,threeofwhich–collec,velyvaluedat$8.82billion–willbepriori,zedforfundingandimplementa,oninthenearterm,forofficialdevelopmentassistance(ODA)throughtheJapanInterna,onalCoopera,onAgency(JICA)
-$4.25-billionMegaManilaSubwaySystem,-$1.9-billionMalolos-TutubanNorth-SouthCommuterRailwayProject(NSCR)-$2.67-billioncommuterlineextendingtheNSCRfromTutubantoLosBaños.Amongother11projectsaretheMalitubog-MaridagaoIrriga3onProjectandtheCaviteIndustrialFloodManagementProject.Theotherprojectsinvolverailways,expresswaysandwatersupplyfacili3es.
V.TheNextStep
• Thereisneedtoexplorethepoten,alsectorsthatASEANandPAcanbenefitfromthejointeffort,especially,the“Bridge”conceptandintheservicessector.
• Oncetheindustryisdetermined,theexis,ngASEANandPAarrangementshouldbestudiedtodetermine.
• ShouldASEANandPAhaveaFreeTradeAgreement?– Itmayormaynotbenecessarytohaveafullcomprehensiveagreementtocoverallthepoten,alprojects.
– Innova,veins,tu,onisthewayforward.
VI.Conclusion
• Asiaisrejuvena,ngandmanychallengesawait.
• Newsetofins,tu,onisneededtotakeustothe21stcenturyworld.
• ThereareeconomicarrangementbetweenASEANandPacificAllianceshouldbeastrategicundertakingthatfocusesontakingbothregionstoafutureposi,on.