Around the World In

45 MinutesApril 2011

Globalization

Manufacturers Experiencing Rising Exports

Export’s Contribution to GDP

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Why IGER?Bridge to Pacific Rim

Prepare Our Students

Areas TodayAsia

China Japan

Budget DeficitsInflation

Asia

Asia’s Contribution to Global GDP Growth

Soaring Industrial Production in Asia

Investments in Asia

Higher labor Costs in Asia ex Japan

Asia Consumption Accelerating

Asia InflationSupply Shortages

Demand PullNot Much Slack

Asia Place to ProduceInvest

SellFuture

China’s Economy

Share of Global GDP

U.S. Treasury Securities8% of all

25% of foreign owned

RMB•Liberalized•Trades Settled•World Currency

ChinaBig Consumer

China’s Love Affair with Cars

Buy a Car and Buy a Flat

China’s Shrinking Trade Surplus

House Prices for Asian Cities

Gov’t PoliciesPurchase

RestrictionsProperty TaxesHigher Interest

Rates

Five-year Plan

Happy China

China InflationSocial/ Political

ConclusionGrowth Cool Down

Inflation EaseControl Property

PricesGradual Yuan Appr.

Japan Unemployment Rate

Japan Exports by Region

Japan: Consumer Price Index

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/toc/11_13/B4221japan-crisis.htm?chan=magazine+channel_top+stories

Global Impact•Supply Chain•Financial Market• Repatriate• Yen Appreciation• Interest Rates

Supply-chain Impact

Supply Chain•35% Boeing 787•20% Semiconductors•40% Electronic Comp•10% Laptop Batteries•25% NAND Flash chip

Ships Contaminated by Radiation

Sig Turning Point•1855 Tokukawa•1923 Nationalism•1945 Superpower•2011 ?

Small Global Impact

JapanVideo

Risk for Us

Not in Asia

LocallyBusinesses: Asia

Labor Force: Train

Who Benefits?•Commodities Producers•High End Consumer Goods•Machineries

Big Ten in 2030•China•U.S.A•Japan•Germany•U.K.

• Brazil• Mexico• France• Canada• Korea

Republican Proposal

Interest Costs

What to Do?

Adult Conversation

•Serious Debate•Political Climate•Grand Bargain

Entitlement Spending

U.S. Defense Spending

Higher Taxes

Food InflationUp 80% y/y

Protests in N. AfricaChina 25% of U.S.

SoyEthanol 40% of Corn

Inflation RisksInflation

ExpectationsWage Increases

Inflation Expectations

Why No DeflationInflation Expectations

Wage RigiditiesImport Prices

Monetary Policy

No DeflationInflation Eventually

Cost Push Excess Cap. Diminishes

TaxesFees

Ventura CountyApril 2011

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