arkeometri a.b.d. semineri, f.b.e., odtÜ 25.06.2015ess 501 odtÜ/metu 1, yurdanur tulunay orta...

Arkeometri A.B.D. Semineri, F.B.E., ODTÜ

18.04.23 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU 1

, Yurdanur Tulunay

Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Havacılık ve Uzay Mühendisliği, 06531 Ankara

(e-mail: [email protected])

ESS 501ESS 501

Introduction to Near Earth Introduction to Near Earth SpaceSpace

Arkeometri A.B.D. Semineri, F.B.E., ODTÜ

18.04.23 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METUAnkara

2

Earth System ScienceSpace Weather

andTechnology

Yurdanur Tulunay

Middle East Technical University ,

Department of Aerospace Engineering, 06531 Ankara

(e-mail: [email protected])

18.04.23 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

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Content

• Introduction • What is ESS• What is Space Weather • L. Lanzerrotti’s Presentation• Examples • What do we do • Results conclusion


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Introduction

• Since 1980 a paradigm emerged in geosciences, analogous to

• plate tectonics revolution of 1950s and 1960s.


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(Paradigm :

It typically defines what a given individual is willing to accept of her or his field, or how they perform their own work within it, Oxford Dictionary)


6

This paradigm called

"Earth System Science" (ESS)

or

"Earth System"

http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html


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EARTH

only planet we know of that sustains

LIFE



8

Acknowledges

• changes in the solid earth

• changes result from interactions

among

• NES,Atmosphere, Hydrosphere,

Biosphere and Lithosphere



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Changes in the solid E+ result from interactions among the atmosphere - hydrosphere - biosphere and the lithosphere



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Increasing awareness

of the role of

microbes in generating ore deposits.


Example


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The way tectonics influences

weathering rates, which in turn

affect global climate.

Example



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ESS

systematically introduces concepts and resources

centered on

space – air – water – land – life

and

human dimensions.http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index.html


13

In the following slide the concept of a pyramidal structure illustrates the relation of the ESS and global change education in the larger interest of society.

At the lower level of the pyramid information and knowledge from the basic sciences , disciplines are important.


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The next level is information and knowledge show how to integrate the discipline of interest with the other relevant disciplines.

Within the pyramidal structure one can find out who will advise, manage, direct and lead humankind activities.


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Within the pyramidal structure one can find out who will advise, manage, direct and lead humankind activities

D. Johnson. M. Ruzek, M. Kalb, Computer and Geosciences, vol.26, pp.660-676, 2000)


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forms the scientific integrating basis for any discussion of the system as a whole.

Future of our planet and destiny of humankind are

dependent upon this interdisciplinary

pyramid of ES



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There is no process or phenomenon within the ES

which occurs in complete isolation from the other

elements of the system from the other elements of

the system , in particular the Sun, therefore,

the Near Earth Space (NES)


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forms the scientific integrating basis for any discussion of the system as a whole.

Future of our planet and destiny of humankind are

dependent upon this interdisciplinary

pyramid of ES



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In the mid-1980’s NASA began a systems approach to cataloging the elements of the Earth System, their linkages, dependences and fluxes. This simplified version focuses on the physical elements of the system, but relegates human processes to a simple box.

i.e. Physical Elements of the system and human processes forming a simple box.

http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthssystem/index.html


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CHALLENGE is :

How to quantify various elements, states, and processes within the system ?

As an illustration, next slide shows the relevant interactions of physical and dynamical properties.

The scales involved vary

(i) in spatial scales: from mm to the circumference of the Earth

(ii) in temporal scales: from seconds to billion of years


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Physical Elements of the system and human processes forming a simple box

System approach: Elements of the E+ system, their linkages, dependencies

and fluxes



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From space can view

the Earth as a whole system,

observe the net results of

complex interactions,



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begin to understand how

the planet is changing

in response to natural and

human influences



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ESS

has begun to understand and

quantify the effects of

“forcings”

on the climate system



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The next slide estimates of the globally and annually averaged radiative forcings (in watt/sq.m) due to a number of anthropogenic and natural factors from pre-industrial times (1750) to 2000.

The height of the rectangular bars indicates mid-range estimates of the FORCINGS:


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(Houghton, J., 2002)


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The error bars show estimates of the uncertainty ranges.

Note that only the range of values, not a central estimate, is shown for the indirect aeorosol forcing, because of its large uncertainty.

The contribution of individiual gases to the direct greenhouse forcing are indicated in the first bar; the forcings associated with changes in Ozone are shown in the second and third bars.


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Estimates of the forcings (globally averaged values) due to changes in aerosols are shown in the following bars.

The last two bars are estimates of the forcings associated with changes in land use because of the changes in albedo and with possible variations in the input of solar radiation.

Also included is an index of scientific understanding for each forcing representing a subjective judgement about the degree of knowledge and understanding regarding the mechanisms involved.

(“Summary of Policymakers”, IPCC,2001)


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In the ESS , the various processes act in concert to

define both a backgound state (CLIMATOLOGY) and a disturbed state (WEATHER) (R.W.Schunk, Space Weather, Geophysical Monograph 125,AGU, WDC, 2001).

In other words, slow variations of long term averages are the subject of climatology ; and the short term variations are the subject of weather.

The influence of fluctuations of the solar source can be the atmost importance for the terrestrial climate

(besides, continential drift, ocean currents, vulcanism; position of the Earth in space, the fall of the bodies into the NES etc.)


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This influence can be direct:

(i) if solar irradiance is tied with solar magnetic activity , it is reasonable to expect that irradiance and sunspot numbers are correlated with each other. In order to determine whether a climatic effect is visible , we must have irradiance information available on climatic scales of many decades to centuries. Unfortunately, irradiance data goes back to only 1980’s .

(SWARM-Internet Space Weather and Radio Propagation Forecasting Course, 1996-2001) .

In other words, Solar radiation varies according to the nature of the emission site-a sunspot does not radiate in the same way as a facula or a coronal hole. A variation of 0.3 % of the solar constant(!) (i.e. 4 Watts per Sq.m) results in average variation of 0.4 deg.of celsius of the average temperature on the Earth .

Certain studies show an influence of the 11 – year solar cycle on some meteorological phenomena.

(J. Lilensten and J. Bornarel, Space Weather, Enviroment and Societies ,Springer , 2006)


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(ii) The written records of the sunspots dates back to 1600 AD. Chinese sunspot observations are sporadic and dates back to 3000-4000 years ago.

Indirectly the C 14 content in trees will be anticorrelated with solar activity. That is, C 14 is produced by the cosmic rays . Due to the Forbusch decrease if cosmic ray concentration is low, then this period is a high sunspot or active solar activity period.

There exist very early observations of auroral observations from Chine, Japan and Korea.


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The little ice age was the name given to the period between 1550 to 1750 when winters were so called that the big rivers of mid-latitude Europe froze over.

Between 1650 and 1750 there was a heavy draught in the South-West of North America.

The whole period correspondance to the Maunder minimum during which there were no sunspots on the Sun.

The Sun was unusually active between 1100 and 1250 AD – called “ Grand Maximum”. During this period , even in the northern countries the climate was so mild that wine could be grown at latitudes beyond 50 deg.N !

(F. Jansen, Space Weather Consortium , Space Weather CD-ROM,ESTW, 2002)


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climate system produced by

solar variability increasing

concentrations of [CO2],

aerosols.

trends detected also



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What is Space Weather?


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• Our Sun is one of the ordinary stars of the Milky Way Galaxy which consists of about 100 billion stars. The Milky Way (MW) is only one of about 100 billion galaxies that exist in our Universe.

• The Sun orbits the center of the MW every 225 million years. Therefore, our solar system rotates around the center of the MW at a speed of 830 000 km per hour.

• The sun radiates at all wavelengths from gamma rays to radio waves as depicten ın the next slide.

(F. Jansen,2002)


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The Sun radiates at all wavelengths from gamma rays to radio waves as shown in the next slide.


38The yellow line shows the Sun’s spectrum form X-rays to radio waves.


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Departments of Space Sciences and Technology (ESF-SSC, 1990)


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SEPsSEPs CMEsCMEs Geomagnetic StormsGeomagnetic Storms

GCRsGCRs

Uzay Havasinin Anahtar Konulari(Courtesy of L. Lanzerotti, ESWW4, 5-9 Nov. 2007, Brussels)

7 ODTÜ AAT Gökbilim Günleri 2009; 20-21 Mayis 2009


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(Courtesy of L.Lanzerotti, ESSW4, 5-9 Nov. 2007, Brussels)

STRUCTURE

1. What is space weather

Issues fora. Upper atmosphere effectsb. Charged particle environmentsc. Humans in Spaced. Upstream drivers of space weather

Extreme events Long-term change Summary

18.04.23 44ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

What is space weather?

•Space weather is the physical and phenomenological state of natural space environments. The associated discipline aims, through observation, monitoring, analysis and modelling, at understanding and predicting the state of thesun, the interplanetary and planetary environments, and the solar and non-solar driven perturbations that affect them; and also at forecasting and nowcasting the possible impacts on biological and technological systems.Text: courtesy COST Action 724

Image: courtesy L. Lanzerotti18.04.23 45ESS 501

ODTÜ/METU Ankara

Upper atmosphere• Dominates (~90%) economic impact of Space Weather

– Potentially large Euro market for SpW services

• Effects include drag, radio propagation, induction sources

Comms/GNSSScintillation –

loss of phase lock

SAR – along-track coherence of

ionospheric path

D region – absorptionX-ray flares, protons

E/F region – reflection/refraction – magnetic storms/aurora


Energetic particles in space

• Strategic issue for spacecraft design & operations– Potential Euro market for SpW

services

• Diverse space-based effects – charging – by keV-MeV electrons

(rad belt, aurora, plasmasheet, SEP)

– radiation damage (e.g. solar cells, DNA) – by > MeV ions (rad belt, SAA, solar events, cosmic rays)

– single event effects (state changes in microelectronics) – by >> MeV ions (rad belt, solar events, cosmic rays)

Image: courtesy ESA

Cluster array power2001-2007


• Very energetic particles (> GeV) penetrate the atmosphere– Cosmic rays, solar energetic particles

– Influx controlled by geomagnetic field (highest at poles)

– Collisions generate secondary neutrons (peak flux ~ 20 km, significant at 10 km, some flux at surface)

• Cause significant single event effects in avionics• SEE now growing issue for ground-based electronics

– dominant factor limiting reliability of digital electronics

– major issue for safety-critical systems, e.g. in cars

– also issue for range of high-voltage power systems

• Cosmic rays also influence atmosphere– Clear link with cloud cover in maritime regions (Harrison, 2006)

– Can ~100 keV electrons from cosmic rays seed lightning strokes?

Energetic particles in the atmosphere

•… semiconductor memory failures induced by cosmic radiation are no longer an “aerospace problem”. Such failure mechanisms must be accounted for in automotive electronics systems design.•www.automotivedesignline.com, June 2006


Humans in space• Radiation is direct hazard to

astronauts– DNA damage, increased cancer risk,

• Space station protected by Earth’s magnetic field

• Moon and Mars are NOT protected

Average annual dose at Earth’s surface

Max. annual dose for a radiation worker

fatal

raised cancer riskradiation sickness

above annual dose

fatal


above annual dose

Average annual dose at Earth’s surfaceAverage annual dose at Earth’s surface

Max. annual dose for a radiation workerMax. annual dose for a radiation worker

fatal


above annual dose

fatal


above annual dose

The luck of Apollo

Danger on Mars radiation hits on rover camera


Upstream drivers•Space Weather is a natural hazard – a consequence of living near a star

– Analogous to living next to volcanoes, rivers, etc

Courtesy NASA

Need to understand science that controls this environment– Behaviour of that star

– How energy and momentum propagate to our planet

Propagation includes– Solar wind + embedded

magnetic field

– Plasma transport across magnetopause (confinement boundary)

– Magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling – magnetically guided

Common physics with magnetically confined plasmas for fusion18.04.23 50ESS 501

ODTÜ/METU Ankara


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Extreme Events

• But they are rare – so main issue is detection and then patience until normal conditions return.

• Which critical systems need to cope?

• How to advise users on the day?

Extreme events are important as they produce major disruption often beyond scope of routine mitigation.


Long-term change in SpW•Solar change

– Are we at grand (300-year) maximum in solar activity (& its effects at Earth)?

– Will 21st century see collapse in activity (similar to 17th century)?

– What are consequences: enhanced cosmic ray fluxes, bigger solar particle events?

•Green-house gases– Will cool upper atmosphere– Some evidence in long-term ionospheric

data-sets – Also evidence from EISCAT continuous

run for IHY

•Geomagnetic field– Westward motion of SAA– Decline in magnetospheric protection

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1860 1890 1920 1950 1980 2010

Year

6-m

onth

med

ian

aa

Rising trend in geomagnetic activity

1860 2010

1930 201018.04.23 53ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara

(Courtesy of L.Lanzerotti, ESSW4, 5-9 Nov. 2007, Brussels)SUMMARY

• Space Weather has increasing impact on people and technology– Not limited to space, has very profound effects in upper

atmosphere and applications therein– Growing awareness of sea-level effects and their

impact on applications (e.g. electronics, power grids, etc).

– Has role in “Space Situational Awareness”

• Highlights need to understand space environment



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“Condition on the sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life

or health.”

(US NS Weather Plan)


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“Space Weather” is the physical and phenomenological state of

Ecospace, the region where human activities interact with the

terrestrial and space environments.

Maserotti, 2004


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Why is Space Weather so Important ?Why is Space Weather so Important ?

Space Weather is an application-oriented discipline and addresses the needs of users. But, it is important to note that basic research in the field of Solar-Terrestrial Physics is necessary for Space Weather applications.

SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL PHYSICS

SPACE

WEATHER

Basic Research Application Oriented

Scientific Observations Continuous Monitoring

Scientific Products Service Products

(Norma Crosby, Private Comm.)


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The aurora borealis as seen from the ground. Different colors arise because different atmospheric gases are excited, and the excitation occurs at different altitudes as a result of the wide energy spread of the exciting electrons (from: Rice University educational home pages; http://space.rice.edu/).


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This image of the auroral oval shows the bright emissions that occur in the atmosphere at altitudes between 80 and 300 kilometers when atoms are excited by energetic electrons traveling along magnetic field lines.

This image was obtained from the Dynamics Explorer spacecraft over the north polar region during winter, when the entire aurora borealis was over the night hemisphere of the Earth .

(from: Dynamics Explorer University of Iowa Imaging Experiment, L.A. Frank principal investigator).


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G.Siscoe, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 62 (2000), 1223-1232

Those components of which that are vulnerable to space weather

distrubances form the cyberelectrosphere at the center

of the triquetra

This figure attempts to show how to cyberelectrosphere emerges from an interaction between the subjects socitey, science and space weather

The overlap of space weather and science has given rise to the fields of space physics and aeronomy

Before science the overlap of society and space weather in the form of low altitude auroras that acompany space storms gave rise to omens and wonders

The cyberelectrosphere denotes a global, electrically enabled, technological environment that space storms attack

Society

Science

Space Weather

Omen Wonders

SpacePhysics & Aeronomy

Tech-nology

Cyberelectro-sphere


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WIRED FOR POWER

LINKED FOR COMMUNICATION

NETWORKED FOR INFORMATION

SERVICED BY SATELLITES

SPACE SHIP EARTH

F. Jansen, R. Hippler, Space Weather Edition II CD, Univ. Greifswald, Inst. Of Phys.,Germany.

The future European navigation system “Galileo” will contain some measures to compensate for space weather effects. This image shows the first few satellites of the system.


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October 28, 2003 October 29, 200311:06h 11:16h

0:00h 6:00h 12:00h 18:00h 24:00h

x17.2 and 10.0 flares! ( Oct 28)

Sunspots (Oct 28 -07:14h)

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov

Halloween Storm


63F. Jansen, R. Hippler, Space Weather Edition II CD, Univ. Greifswald, Inst. Of Phys., Germany.


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Problems in Birds’ NavigationHoming pigeons and most migrating birds use the magnetic field of the Earth to navigate. They have tiny magnets in their brain which act as a kind of compass. If the magnetic fields

is distorted during a geomagnetic storm, the birds may get lost and cannot find home.

F. Jansen, R. Hippler, Space Weather Edition II CD, Univ. Greifswald, Inst. Of Phys., Germany.


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In the framework of the global electric circuit between the Sun and the Earth the probable influence of Cosmic Rays have been studied. In this context it is expected that cloudiness will increase during solar minimum periods.

Why?


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(Carslaw et al.,2002)


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What Do we Do in Turkey?

Some typical Examples


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Any space weather service must be able to give reliable predictions of the Sun’s activity and its impact on the space environment and human activities.


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The ST and atmospheric

environments is influenced by

extraterrestrial and terrestrial EM

and electrodynamic processes,

intimately linked to

global climate change.


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Since 1990’s European Union Actions

COST 238; COST 251; COST 271;

COST 296; COST 724

ESF SPECIAL I and II; E-STAR

Framework Programs:FP6;FP7


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* ANN is a novel structure of the information processing system.

* composed of a large number of highly interconnected processing elements (neurones) working in parallel to solve specific problems. * ANNs learn like people, by training.


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Case-1 : METU-NN model for non-linear

agro-environmental systems (Tulunay, 2002)


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Observed and Forecast Flow values versus the order of data points. Superimposed in a solid line is the one month advance forecast values of the Flow.

Scatter Diagram of the Forecast and Observed Flow values with the linear

fit line. A fitted line has a slope close to 45 passing through the origin


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Case-2 : METU-NN model for low altitude clouds

(Tulunay, 2003)


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One month ahead Forecast versus Observed % Cloud fraction

values with linear fit line .

One month ahead Forecast (solid) and Observed (dashed) % Cloud fraction

values (April 1989 to December 1990).


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Case-3 : METU-NN model forSolar Flux Forcasting

( Özkök, 2005)


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One hour ahead forecast of solar fluxes at 2695 MHz

Horizontal axis refers to the normalized obtained values; vertical axis refers to the normalized measured values.


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Models

Pamplona, Feast of St. Fermin, July 7, 2001

Forecasters & Ops Specs

J. Kunches,NOAA SEC, COSPAR 2002, Houston, October 19, 2002.


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CONCLUSION


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82

SpW is set to become of

increasing importance in our

daily lives as our dependence

on technological systems

increases.


83

Although learnt a great deal

about the Sun-Earth system and

its effects on the Earth still

far from understanding the

complete picture.


84

More research is still needed

to reliably predict the strength

and duration of a space weather

event at the Earth


85

Data driven forecast and

modeling is very promising in

Space Weather applications.


86

Applications can be twofold:

• Future

• Retrospective

arkeometri a.b.d. semineri, f.b.e., odtÜ 25.06.2015ess 501 odtÜ/metu 1, yurdanur tulunay orta...

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