arctic ice melt a study of sea ice variability in the northwest passage: implications for ship...
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Arctic Ice MeltA Study of Sea Ice Variability in
the Northwest Passage:Implications for Ship Navigation
Larin M. Lash, Mike L. Harrington, Evan P. Menkhus
Arctic Ice MeltA Study of Sea Ice Variability in
the Northwest Passage:Implications for Ship Navigation
Larin M. Lash, Mike L. Harrington, Evan P. Menkhus
Introduction
Introduction
• A Long Awaited Trade Route
• Huge Global Significance (London to Tokyo, 14670 to < 8000 mi)
• The Five Players
Introduction
• 2010 G-7 Summit in Iqaluit, Canada
• Canada’s Continental Shelf Claim• Military Bases & Seaport
• $7 Billion for ice breakers / patrol vessels
Introduction
“ The first principle of sovereignty is either use it, or lose it.
“Steven Harper, Canadian Prime Minister
• Canada’s resolute attitude
“It’s one of our government’s priorities, the assertion of our sovereignty in the Arctic
“
Jim Flaherty, Finance Minister
• Russia and the United States, the Bering
Strait
• Greenland (Denmark)
Introduction
• Arctic Ice changed in 2007
• Climate trends• Clouds / Albedo
Sept. 2010
Introduction
• Study Objective:• To utilize satellite imagery to determine if Arctic ice is melting at a
predictable or measurable rate that can be used to forecast the annual
presence of ice in the Northwest Passage, possibly providing its controlling
countries with a new global trade route.
The Study Area
Methods
Methods
Methods
Methods
Methods
The Results
Image Analysis Data
Date Ice Water % Ice % Water %∆ Change in Ice8/20/199
28034263 1815496 81.6% 18.4%
8/29/1995
1477396 8485168 14.8% 85.2% -66.7%
8/31/1996
2571503 7391047 25.8% 74.2% 11.0%
9/1/1999 1312052 8611432 13.2% 86.8% 1312052
9/3/2000 3824971 6022459 38.8% 61.2% 25.6%
9/22/2001
6408301 3554254 64.3% 35.7% 25.5%
9/7/2010 3654191 6288810 36.8% 63.2% -27.6%
• Study period: 1992 – 2010
The Results
1/1/1992
1/1/1993
1/1/1994
1/1/1995
1/1/1996
1/1/1997
1/1/1998
1/1/1999
1/1/2000
1/1/2001
1/1/2002
1/1/2003
1/1/2004
1/1/2005
1/1/2006
1/1/2007
1/1/2008
1/1/2009
1/1/2010
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%
Yearly Ice Totals (%)
1/1/1992
1/1/1993
1/1/1994
1/1/1995
1/1/1996
1/1/1997
1/1/1998
1/1/1999
1/1/2000
1/1/2001
1/1/2002
1/1/2003
1/1/2004
1/1/2005
1/1/2006
1/1/2007
1/1/2008
1/1/2009
1/1/2010
-80.0%
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
Percent Change in Ice
Conclusion
• 1973 – 2010 Imagery
• Cloud cover issues
• Our findings
Future Studies
• Recommendations
• Passive Microwave Imagery
• Incorporation of additional data
Questions?
?