Arctic Climate ChangeArctic Climate ChangePractical Implications of Changing Practical Implications of Changing

Ice CoverIce CoverJohn FalkinghamJohn Falkingham

IICWG, October 2000IICWG, October 2000

Source: Parkinson SMMR/SSM I Analysis

Source: Rothrock, U. of Washington

Is the Arctic Icescape Changing?Science and observational evidence point to decreasing ice

Source: Parkinson SMMR/SSM I Analysis

Source: Rothrock, U. of Washington

No Summer Ice Cover

www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/socc/seaice/seaice_future.html

Is the Arctic Icescape Changing?Science and observational evidence point to decreasing ice

Hudson Bay Hudson Bay Median Total Ice Concentration (1971-1998)Median Total Ice Concentration (1971-1998)

for July 15for July 15

open waterCt 1 to 3Ct 4 to 6Ct 7 to 8Ct 9 to 9+Ct 10

Inter-Annual VariabilityInter-Annual Variability

Hudson Bay ice Hudson Bay ice extent can vary by extent can vary by more than 300 % more than 300 % from one year to from one year to the nextthe next

Decreasing Ice ExtentDecreasing Ice Extent

About 13%per decade

Hudson Bay Hudson Bay Example of Heavy Ice Condition Year (1992)Example of Heavy Ice Condition Year (1992)

for July 15for July 15

open waterCt 1 to 3Ct 4 to 6Ct 7 to 8Ct 9 to 9+Ct 10

open waterCt 1 to 3Ct 4 to 6Ct 7 to 8Ct 9 to 9+Ct 10

Hudson Bay Hudson Bay Example of Light Ice Condition Year (1977)Example of Light Ice Condition Year (1977)

for July 15for July 15

Marine Transportation in Canada’s Arctic

Marine Transportation in Canada’s Arctic

Canada’s Eastern Arctic Canada’s Eastern Arctic Median Total Ice Concentration (1968-1998)Median Total Ice Concentration (1968-1998)

for August 15for August 15

open waterCt 1 to 3Ct 4 to 6Ct 7 to 8Ct 9 to 9+Ct 10

Inter-Annual VariabilityInter-Annual Variability

Decreasing Ice ExtentDecreasing Ice Extent

Decrease of about 20% since 1968

Natural ResourcesNatural Resources

Considerable resources ready for Considerable resources ready for developmentdevelopment

Decreased ice would make these Decreased ice would make these resources considerably more resources considerably more attractive economicallyattractive economically

Marine ResourcesMarine Resources

Currently, the only commercial Currently, the only commercial fishery is the shrimp fishery along the fishery is the shrimp fishery along the Davis Strait / Baffin Bay ice edgeDavis Strait / Baffin Bay ice edge

Reduced ice extent could attract Reduced ice extent could attract international fishing fleets to vast international fishing fleets to vast new stocksnew stocks

How will these new resources be How will these new resources be managed? managed?

The Northwest PassageThe Northwest Passage

Mariners have been Mariners have been seeking this route for at seeking this route for at least 500 years.least 500 years.

Will it become viable in Will it become viable in this century?this century?

CGCM2: Winter and Summer Projected Ice Cover Change

1971-90 vs 2041-2060

CGCM2: Winter and Summer Projected Ice Cover Change

1971-90 vs 2041-2060

March September

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Meteorological Service of Canada

Inter-Annual VariabilityInter-Annual Variability

˚ Icebreaker escort will often be required

˚ Route planning will be essential to avoid ice

˚ Ice information services will be in high demand

˚ Significant changes to ice information infrastructure

Even with much reduced sea ice in the Arctic in the future, there will still be bad ice years interspersed with good ice years

ConclusionConclusion

Cooperation and coordination among national ice services of the

north polar region will become more important than ever