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Great Designs in Steel is Sponsored by:Great Designs in Steel is Sponsored by:Great Designs in Steel is Sponsored by:Great Designs in Steel is Sponsored by:

ArcelorMittal Dofasco, ArcelorMittal USA, Nucor Corporation,

Severstal North America, Inc. and United States Steel Corporation

Future of Steel in the

Automobiles of 21st Century

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Presenter

Raj Sohmshetty,

Ford Motor Company

Automobiles of 21st Century

• Steel has been a leader in automobile

applications since 1920s

• Will steel continue to be a leading material

in automotive structures in the coming

Background

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in automotive structures in the coming

decades?

– Drivers for change

– Technical and economic aspects

– Possible future scenarios

Cosmological models predict that …

Iron Atoms

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... all the matter will become Iron!… given enough time!! ☺

The nucleus of iron has

the highest binding

energy per nucleon.

Future of Steel in Autos - Outline

• Introduction & History

• Design Considerations

• Manufacturing Considerations

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• Business Considerations

• Conclusion/Survey

Acknowledgements

• The following individuals helped with the

preparation/review of this presentation:

– ArcelorMittal: Ravir Bhatnagar, …

– USS: Guofei Chen, Bart De Pompolo, …

– Ford: Rakshit Ramachandra, Cedric Xia, Joe

Weishar, Carl Johnson, Shawn Morgans, …

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Weishar, Carl Johnson, Shawn Morgans, …

– Toyota: Umesh Gandhi

• References used in this presentation are

mentioned on the slides.

Vehicle Weight

Body

WeightChassis

Weight

P/T

Weight

1/31/3

1/3

Hot Rolled

Sheet Steels

Cold Rolled

Sheet SteelsCastings &

Forgings

Vehicle Weight Composition

Optimize Shock/Axle

Bracket

Shock Tower -Eliminate

Hydroform rear axle tube

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• Currently, steel is the primary material in body and chassis structures.

• Aluminum is a distant second – primarily used engine blocks, wheels, and some closures; and in premium/niche vehicles.

Micro Alloy

Steel Front

Springs

DP600 Wheel Disks

CAE Optimize

leaf springs

Radius Arm-

deeper draw and

change material

to SF590

Shock Tower -Eliminate

powder coat

Optimize design and

Strengthen material and

add patchwork blank if

stiffness is required

Common Radius

arm between

F250 and F450

Make integrated rear

bumper / trailer hitch

as on P415

Reduce tow hook

dia by 1.0mm

94.5

75

100

2009 Worldwide Light Vehicle Material Content All Segments - Segmented by Type of Material* -

66.4 percent of the material content is ferrous based. aluminum is 7.8 percent of the total content. This equates to nearly ten million metric tons of aluminum shipmentsincluding customer offal, other scrap and spare parts

Polymers,

Glass,

Wood,

Rubber,

Coatings,

Textiles and Based on Forecast of 72.3 Million Vehicles

Vehicle Material Composition

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40.2

18.4 18.0

9.9

49.3

0

25

50

Flat Steel Other Steel Iron Aluminum Other Metals Non Metallic's

Material Type

Bil

lio

ns

of

Po

un

ds

*Excludes Scrap & Includes only original Equipment

100%

Castings81%

Castings

Copper,

Lead, Zinc,

Mg,

Platinum

and Titanium

Textiles and

FluidsBased on Forecast of 72.3 Million Vehicles

actual 2009 results could be 20% lower

Source: Ducker Worldwide

North American Light Vehicle Aluminum Content

2009 Compared to 2006

11.44

11.29

31.46

53.49

122.64

9.75

12.76

31.54

52.06

57.08

113.84

54.71

Steering

Driveline

Heat Exchangers

Wheels

Transmissions

Engines

+ 1.69 Lbs.

- 1.47 Lbs. losses due to mix shift

- 0.08 Lbs. change due to smaller parts

+ 1.43 Lbs.

- 2.37 Lbs. losses due to smaller parts

+ 8.8 Lbs.

Net Change

Vehicle Aluminum Content Trends

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9.41

1.33

2.40

4.21

5.48

1.45

5.93

9.10

11.44

9.02

1.30

1.91

4.06

4.24

4.82

5.52

8.32

9.75

0 25 50 75 100 125

All Other

Body & IP Supports

Bumpers

Heat Shields

Suspensions

Crossmembers & Cradles

Closures

Brakes

Steering

2009 2006

Pounds per Vehicle

+ 0.39 Lbs.

+ 0.03 Lbs.

+ 0.49 Lbs.

+ 0.15 Lbs.

+ 1.24 Lbs.

- 3.37 Lbs. losses due to steel’s gains

+ 0.41 Lbs.

+ 0.82 Lbs.

+ 1.69 Lbs.

Net increase of 8.24

pounds in 2009 over

2006 (primarily from

Engine Blocks)

Source: Ducker Worldwide

Drivers for Weight Reduction

Fuel Economy &

Emissions

Safety Enhancements Performance & Features

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• Vehicle programs are facing aggressive weight targets.

• Common assumptions:

• Incremental weight savings can be achieved by new steel technologies

• Substantial weight savings possible only through extensive aluminum applications

North American Light Vehicle Curb Weight

- History and Forecast -

4,059

3,7163,846

4,0183,920

3,7554,000

4,500

Cu

rb W

eig

ht

Po

un

ds

The decline in curb weight from 2004 to 2009 will be the largest decline in nearly 30 years and contribute at least one MPG to fuel economy improvement

Unibody vehicles are expectedto average 3,471 poundsand full frame vehicleswill average 4,584 poundsin 2009

Vehicle Average Weight Trend

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3,054 3,057

3,532

3,716

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

'76 '82 '86 '96 '99 '02 '04 '06 '09

Select Calendar Years

Cu

rb W

eig

ht

Po

un

ds

Source: Ducker Worldwide

Aluminum Vehicles vs. Comparable Steel Vehicles

Data Source:

Car and Driver Magazine

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Aluminum Vehicles vs. Comparable Steel Vehicles

Data Source:

MSN Autos

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Comparison of Materials

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Cost numbers are estimates only!

Comparison of Materials

So

urc

e: P

rof.

Mik

e A

sb

hy,

Ca

mb

rid

ge

Un

ive

rsity

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So

urc

e: P

rof.

Mik

e A

sb

hy,

Ca

mb

rid

ge

Un

ive

rsity

• There is no “intrinsic stiffness” advantage for Magnesium, Aluminum, or Titanium over Steel

because they all lie on a constant Young’s Modulus to Density line.

• Any advantage with these alternate materials in stiffness critical applications must come

from geometric effects.

Comparison of Materials

Sourc

e: P

rof.

Mik

e A

sbhy,

Cam

bridge U

niv

ers

ity

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Sourc

e: P

rof.

Mik

e A

sbhy,

Cam

bridge U

niv

ers

ity

• Aluminum and Magnesium have an “intrinsic strength” disadvantage compared to High

Strength Steels because they have lower Strength to Density values.

• Any advantage with these alternate materials in strength critical applications must come

from geometric effects.

Tensile Strength Load Case – No Package Freedom

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Aluminum solution is heavier and more expensive than steel solution.

Tensile Strength Load Case – 400% More Package Space

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Aluminum solution is heavier and more expensive than steel solution.

Bending Strength Load Case – No Package Freedom

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Aluminum solution is heavier and more expensive than steel solution.

Bending Strength Load Case – 25% More Package Space

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Aluminum solution is more expensive and requires more package space.

Bending Stiffness Load Case – No Package Freedom

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Aluminum solution is heavier and more expensive than steel solution.

Bending Stiffness Load Case – 30% More Package Space

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Aluminum solution is lighter, but is more expensive and requires more package space.

Bending Stiffness of Flat Sheet

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Aluminum solution is lighter, but is more expensive.

Torsional Stiffness of an Open Tube

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Aluminum solution is lighter, but is more expensive.

Torsional Stiffness of a Closed Tube

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Aluminum solution is heavier and is more expensive!

Durability/Fatigue

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• Since aluminum does not have an endurance limit, they can only be

designed for a specified number of cycles.

• On the other hand, steel solutions can be theoretically designed for infinite

cycles.

Source: US Steel Website

Structural Considerations - Summary

• In general, Aluminum requires more package space

• If package is space available, steel solutions can be redesigned!

• Aluminum designs cannot be simple material substitutions of steel designs

• Aluminum has 50% mass reduction potential for solid beam/plate

bending & open tube torsion

• Solid beam/plate designs are inefficient and are rarely used in auto body

structures (except for outer panels that can’t be reinforced)

• Continuous joining techniques avoid open profile torsion cases

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Source: FKA Report 56690 for World Auto Steel, November 2006.

• Continuous joining techniques avoid open profile torsion cases

• For other cases, Aluminum & steel have similar mass reduction

potential

• Aluminum solutions cost more than comparable steel solutions

BMW 5-series rear bumper

in aluminum (4 kg)

BMW 5-series rear bumper

in steel (3.7 kg)

• Scratch Resistance: Steel’s hardness/in-service strength is higher than that of aluminum, thus provides better performance against stone chips; and also during handling in plants.

• Damping: Due to higher density, steel provides better air borne noise attenuation.

Other Design Considerations

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• Corrosion Performance: – Single Metal Applications:

Aluminum has better corrosion performance.

– Mixed Metal Applications: Steel has a lower galvanic potential than aluminum and magnesium; thus is resistant to galvanic corrosion in mixed metal applications.

• Recyclability: Steel’s magnetic

property and ability to mix

different grades makes it easier to

recycle compared to aluminum.

• Styling: Higher formability of

steel makes it easier to meet

styling requirements

Other Design Considerations

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styling requirements

• Packaging: Because of lower

material stiffness and strength,

aluminum designs usually have

larger dimensions and hence

require more package space

• For similar applications, steel solutions are considerably easier to form than aluminum solutions due to:

– Higher forming limits

– Higher elongations

– Higher r-values

Manufacturing - Formability

0.7

0.8

1.2mm AA5182-O

1.2mm AA6111-T4

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– Positive strain rate hardening

• This has implications for manufacturing robustness, material costs, cycle times, and styling.

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

Minor Strain

Majo

r S

train

1.2mm AA6111-T4

1.2mm CR-EDDQ

1.2mm DP600

• Joining:

– Steel is easier to join in mass production environment using well established methods such as RSW and MIG welding.

– Aluminum joining is more complex and often requires combination of mechanical fastening, adhesive bonding, and MIG or TIG welding.

Other Manufacturing Considerations

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TIG welding.

• Assembly:

– Aluminum assembly may require costly isolation systems to prevent galvanic corrosion.

– If aluminum castings are used, expensive machining may be required.

Business Considerations - Cost

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Legend:

• Ford Contour: Steel Unibody Design (BIW: 215 kg)

• Ford P2000: Aluminum Unibody Design (BIW: 152 kg)

• Audi A8 (Size Adjusted): Aluminum space-frame (BIW: 160 kg)

Reference : A. Kelkar, R. Roth, & Joel Clark, “Can Aluminum Be an Economical Alternative to Steel?”, JOM AUGUST 2001

C

Business Considerations – Price Volatility

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600

Steel Price ($/lb)

Alu

min

um

Pri

ce (

$/l

b)

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CCorrelation Coefficient Between

Steel & Aluminum Prices = 0.8

• Relative standard deviation of steel prices (43%) has been higher than that of

aluminum (27%) during 1998 – 2009.

• Aluminum contracts are traded on an exchange – may explain lower volatility?

• However, there is a strong correlation between steel and aluminum prices.

Source: European Aluminium Association

Business Considerations - Supply

Growth rate world total Growth rate western world

Production world total Production western world

World Aluminum Supply

The O’Carrol Aluminum Bulletin reported higher world primary capacity numbers than European Aluminum Association:- 35 million tonnes in 2004- 49 million tonnes in 2009

Per Ducker, secondary aluminum made from scrap amounted to 13 million tonnes in 2009.

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World Steel Supply

Source: Arcelor Mittal

Business Considerations - Supply

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Steel Aluminum

New demand volume relative to world supply is much more “noticeable” in the case of Aluminum.

• Reviewed design, manufacturing, and business considerations that might explain why steel has been a primary choice in auto body structures.

• Any change in future applications would perhaps require new aluminum technologies in areas such:

– new material grades

– material production

Conclusion

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– material production

– forming and joining

– recycling

• On the other hand, more steel application opportunities may be realized with new steel technologies and design innovations.

Unscientific Survey

Scenario A:

Mass produced aluminum intensive vehicles are common place. Steel

is no longer a clear leader in automotive applications.

Scenario N:

Which is a more likely in the future (2015 or later)?

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Scenario N:

Current material composition of automotive structures would largely

be maintained.

Scenario S:

Steel applications increase and alternate material applications would

actually see a reduction in percentage terms.

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Great Designs in Steel is Sponsored by:Great Designs in Steel is Sponsored by:Great Designs in Steel is Sponsored by:Great Designs in Steel is Sponsored by:

ArcelorMittal Dofasco, ArcelorMittal USA, Nucor Corporation,

Severstal North America, Inc. and United States Steel Corporation