arcadian case
DESCRIPTION
Arcadian proposed to sell a 60% equity interest to Sierra Capital for $40 million. Arcadian Microarray Technologies Inc. was founded in 2003. The business consisted of 2 segments:DNA microarraysHuman therapeutics.Sierra Capital: had $2 billion under management. Its portfolio consisted of 64 investments.Rodney Chu, managing director of Sierra Capital is to negotiate price and term of investment. Final steps:To estimate a terminal value for Arcadian.To assess forecast assumptions.TRANSCRIPT
Exhibit 1ARCADIAN MICROARRAY TECHNOLOGIES, INC.Cash Flow Forecast by Arcadian Management
ActualINCOME STATEMENT 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Sales
Clinical microarrays $0 $1 $15 $56 $107 $181 $249 $274 $282 $285 $289 Research microarrays 2 12 28 45 75 110 135 165 190 210 225 Royalties and other revenue 0 0 2 13 52 106 146 166 174 186 189 Human therapeutics 0 0 0 0 8 57 171 250 330 352 362
Total sales 2 13 45 114 242 454 701 855 976 1,033 1,065 Cost of sales 7 10 21 41 84 159 246 322 335 350 361 Gross profits (5) 3 24 73 158 295 455 533 641 683 704 Contract revenue 16 21 23 15 12 4 3 3 3 3 3 Operating expenses
Research & development 14 20 24 18 21 21 32 43 51 52 50 Selling, general & admin. 12 15 24 45 93 176 259 323 369 372 349
Total expenses 26 35 48 63 114 197 291 366 420 424 399 Other income 3 2 2 0 (3) (10) (25) (38) (43) (37) (20)Income before taxes (12) (9) 1 25 53 92 142 132 181 225 288 Taxes 0 0 5 9 19 32 57 76 89 90 85 Net income ($12) ($9) ($4) $16 $35 $60 $85 $56 $92 $135 $203
FREE CASH FLOWNet income ($12) ($9) ($4) $16 $35 $60 $85 $56 $92 $135 $203 Noncash items 0 1 2 2 6 10 18 19 15 8 (1)Working capital (4) (8) (12) (22) (63) (101) (118) (100) (61) 1 39
Capital expenditures (15) (6) (5) (23) (53) (93) (111) (98) (66) (10) (10)Free cash flow ($31) ($22) ($19) ($27) ($76) ($124) ($126) ($123) ($20) $134 $231
Exhibit 2ARCADIAN MICROARRAY TECHNOLOGIES, INC.Cash Flow Forecast by Sierra Capital
ActualINCOME STATEMENT 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Sales
Clinical microarrays $0 $0 $2 $11 $22 $36 $56 $71 $85 $95 $106 Research microarrays 2 4 11 22 40 59 89 135 145 160 185 Royalties and other revenue 0 1 4 7 12 15 25 50 60 75 91 Human therapeutics 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 56 80 110
Total sales 2 5 17 40 74 110 170 270 346 410 492 Cost of sales 7 17 20 25 39 54 72 96 124 142 154 Gross profits (5) (12) (3) 15 35 56 98 174 222 268 338 Contract revenue 16 22 22 15 12 4 4 4 4 4 4 Operating expenses
Research & development 14 23 25 27 29 33 37 44 52 53 54 Selling, general & admin. 12 21 25 32 44 64 87 104 127 138 136
Total expenses 26 44 50 59 73 96 124 147 179 191 191 Other income 3 0 0 1 (1) (2) (2) (3) (2) 0 0 Income before taxes (11) (34) (31) (29) (27) (38) (24) 28 45 80 152 Taxes 0 0 (0) 1 4 (13) 4 11 15 27 39 Net income ($11) ($34) ($31) ($30) ($31) ($25) ($28) $17 $30 $53 $112
FREE CASH FLOWNet income ($11) ($34) ($31) ($30) ($31) ($25) ($28) $17 $30 $53 $112 Noncash items 2 3 3 3 4 6 8 10 14 18 20 Working capital (6) (6) (6) (7) (14) (17) (19) (20) (28) (16) (6)
Capital expenditures (15) (9) (9) (9) (10) (11) (15) (18) (24) (27) (28)Free cash flow ($31) ($46) ($43) ($43) ($51) ($47) ($54) ($11) ($8) $28 $98
2015
$114 199 105 140 558 160 398
4
58 136 194
3 210
48 $162
$162 23 (6)
(30)$149
Exhibit 3ARCADIAN MICROARRAY TECHNOLOGIES, INC.Analysis of 5 year Dividends as % of Stock Price
Projected PresentFive-Year Value of
Recent Annual Dividend Equity Five Years'Price Dividend Growth (%) Beta Cost Dividends
BNSF $53 $0.64 13.0% 0.95 11.2% 3.36 Caterpillar 49 0.80 10.0% 1.20 12.6% 3.74 Cooper Industries 67 1.40 0.0% 1.20 12.6% 4.98 Cummins, Inc. 82 1.20 1.0% 1.35 13.4% 4.30 Deluxe Corporation 33 1.48 1.5% 0.80 10.4% 5.79 RR Donnelley 34 1.04 3.5% 0.95 11.2% 4.21 Dun & Bradstreet 64 0.00 0.0% 0.80 10.4% 0.00 Eaton Corp. 63 1.08 13.5% 1.10 12.0% 5.62 Emerson Electric Co. 70 1.60 7.5% 1.10 12.0% 7.08 Equifax 33 0.11 3.5% 1.10 12.0% 0.44 FedEx Corporation 81 0.29 13.0% 1.10 12.0% 0.00 Fluor Corporation 63 0.64 4.0% 1.20 12.6% 2.54 Honeywell Int'l. Inc. 34 0.75 3.0% 1.35 13.4% 2.84 Illinois Tool Works, Inc. 82 1.00 8.5% 1.05 11.7% 4.58 Kelly Services 29 0.40 11.0% 0.95 11.2% 1.99 ServiceMaster 14 0.43 2.5% 0.80 10.4% 1.73 Sherwin-Williams Co. 46 0.68 11.0% 1.00 11.5% 3.36 Smurfit-Stone Cont. Co. 10 0.00 0.0% 1.30 13.1% 0.00 Tenneco 17 0.00 0.0% 1.75 15.5% 0.00 Weyerhauser Co. 68 1.60 7.5% 1.15 12.3% 7.03
Average
Percent ofMarket Price Not Projected
Attributable to Annual Dividends Per ShareDividends 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
94% 0.72 0.82 0.92 1.04 1.18 92% 0.88 0.97 1.06 1.17 1.29 93% 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 95% 1.21 1.22 1.24 1.25 1.26 82% 1.50 1.52 1.55 1.57 1.59 0.04035188% 1.08 1.11 1.15 1.19 1.24
100% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 91% 1.23 1.39 1.58 1.79 2.03 90% 1.72 1.85 1.99 2.14 2.30 99% 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13
100% 0.33 0.37 0.42 0.47 0.53 96% 0.67 0.69 0.72 0.75 0.78 92% 0.77 0.80 0.82 0.84 0.87 94% 1.09 1.18 1.28 1.39 1.50 93% 0.44 0.49 0.55 0.61 0.67 87% 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.49 93% 0.75 0.84 0.93 1.03 1.15
100% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 90% 1.72 1.85 1.99 2.14 2.30
93%
Exhibit 5ARCADIAN MICROARRAY TECHNOLOGIES, INC.Cash Flows of Three Deals with Differing Rates of Development
Movie BottlingYear Studio Plant
1 ($20) ($20)2 (40) (60)3 (60) (100)4 (20) 5 5 0 10 6 20 20 7 30 40 8 50 65 9 75 115
10 100 150 11 90 180 12 80 190 13 60 200 14 55 204 15 70 208 16 85 212 17 95 216 18 105 221 19 130 225 20 150 230 21 140 234 22 160 239
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Projected Cash Flows by Investment
Movie StudioBottling PlantToll Road
Year
Mill
ions
of D
olla
rs
23 190 244 24 225 249 25 240 254 26 230 259 27 255 264 28 260 269 29 265 275 30 270 280
31+ Steady growth to infinity.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Projected Cash Flows by Investment
Movie StudioBottling PlantToll Road
Year
Mill
ions
of D
olla
rs
Toll project year rumus growth rate growth rate CAGRRoad movie studio 27 255/270 = 1/(1+g)^3 1.92% 1.92% 1.92%($20) bottling plant 13 200/280 = 1/(1+g)^17 1.99% -1.96% 1.96%
90 toll road 3 169/288 = 1/(1+g)^27 1.99% -1.96% 1.96% 169 172 176 179 183 187 190 194 198 202 206 210 214 219 223 227 232 237 241 246
251 256 261 266 272 277 283 288
Steady growth to infinity.
Exhibit 6ARCADIAN MICROARRAY TECHNOLOGIES, INC.Sensitivity Analysis, Present Value Varying by Terminal Value Growth Assumptions
Arcadian's View
Annual growth rate to infinity 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%Weighted average cost of capital 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%Annual capex (net of depr'n.) 2015 $0 ($5) ($12) ($15) ($20) ($28)Annual addition to NWC 2015 - (3) (5) (7) (8) (9)Adjusted free cash flow 2015 202 194 185 180 174 165 Terminal value 2014 1,142 1,173 1,200 1,257 1,314 1,355
PV of terminal value 2014 185 189 194 203 212 219PV free cash flows 2005-2014 ($151) ($151) ($151) ($151) ($151) ($151)Total Present Value $33 $38 $43 $52 $61 $68
Sierra Capital's View
Annual growth rate to infinity 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%Weighted average cost of capital 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%Annual capex (net of depr'n.) 2016 $0 ($5) ($12) ($15) ($20) ($28)Annual addition to NWC 2016 - (3) (5) (7) (8) (9)Adjusted free cash flow 2016 185 177 168 163 157 148 Terminal value 2015 1,049 1,073 1,093 1,142 1,189 1,219
PV of terminal value 2015 141 144 147 154 160 164PV free cash flows 2005-2015 ($118) ($118) ($118) ($118) ($118) ($118)
Total Present Value $23 $26 $29 $35 $42 $46
terminal value
p/e ratio 15 20 15 20arcadian sierranet income 2014 $203 $203 net income 2015 $162 $162 tv 2014 $3,039 4052 tv 2015 2431.5 3242pv tv 2014 491 654 pv tv 2015 327 436pv fcf 05-14 (151) (151) pv fcf 05-15 (118) (118)total pv 340 503 total pv 209 31860% ownership 204 302 60% ownership 125 191
p/b ratio 8.5 8.5arcadian sierrabv to equity $672 bv to equity $199 tv 2014 $5,708 tv 2015 $1,691 pv tv 2014 922 pv tv 2015 228pv fcf 05-14 (151) pv fcf 05-15 (118)total pv 771 total pv 10960% ownership 462 60% ownership 66
growth rate inflation 2%type nominal ratepopulation 1% 3%economic 3% 5%pharmaceutical 5% 7%
arcadian sierraconstant growth 5% constant growth 5%total pv $52 total pv $35 60% ownership $31 60% ownership $21
arcadian's view sierra's view range60% ownership 60% ownership
p/e ratio15 204 125 7820 302 191 111
p/b ratio 462 66 397growth rate $31 $21 $10