Arcadia Lake Plant Community Sampling (1995, 2002) No elevation/transect data from Arcadia Lake on the east shore of Lake Michigan. 1:6000 color infrared aerial photographs used to map major vegetation types, with ground-truth twenty 1x1m randomly-placed quadrats sampled in each vegetation type for percent cover of species present interior sedge/grass meadow Calamagrostis candensis, Carex stricta invaded sedge/grass meadow Phalaris arundinacea, Calamagrostis canadensis, Carex stricta cattail marsh Typha angustifolia, Phalaris arundinacea short emergent Sparganium eurycarpum, Sagittaria latifolia, Leersia oryzoides, Schoenoplectus tabernaemontani, Eleocharis palustris submersed/floating Potamogeton pectinatus, Potamogeton crispus, Najas flexilis Available ground photography shows vegetation changes in response to lake-level changes from 1995 to 2002. 1995 2000 2002 1995 2000 2002 from another angle 1995 2000 2002 Easily accessible air photos show change in areal extent of vegetation types in certain years. Photos from 1995 and 2002 were mapped and ground-truthed. General changes in vegetation types have been correlated with lake-level fluctuations (summertime peak lake level).. 1993 summer peak lake level 176.9m 1995 summer peak lake level 176.6m 1998 summer peak lake level 176.9m 2002 summer peak lake level 176.3m 2004 summer peak lake level 176.4m 1995 Sampling 1.0m drop in 4 yrs ( ) 0.1m rise/fall in 2 yrs ( ) 0.4m rise in 1 yr ( ) 0.3m fall in 2 yrs ( ) 0.9m below peak 0.1m above low 2002 Sampling 1.1m drop in 4 yrs ( ) 0.2m rise in 1 yr ( ) 0.9m below peak 0.2m above low Summer Peak Lake Levels Vegetation observed in 2002 responded to a lake level 0.4m lower than that observed in 1995; more substrate exposed greater seed-bank response. General Approach for Arcadia Lake -obtain good topo/bath data in summer generate a topo/bath geometric model upon which air photo coverage can be overlain -map 2010 vegetation types from new air photos (with quadrat-based characterization of each vegetation type) -map vegetation types in all other years with acceptable quality air photos -develop Arcadia Lake predictive model using Fish Point model (years dewatered/elevation above water) as reference but basing change in vegetation on percentage of wetland mapped as various vegetation types -increases in lake level will likely reset both Fish Point and Arcadia Lake models, but data from others will be analyzed to develop better predictions [e.g., Gathman et al. (2005) Journal of Great Lakes Research 31(suppl.1): ] Fish Community Sampling (1995, 2002) eight fyke nets fished overnight for four days net locations changed after first two days -two frame sizes -45x45cm in water less than 1m deep -91x91cm in water 1m deep or greater -two mesh sizes (0.48cm and 01.27cm) -leads perpendicular to shore and wings to each side ARCADIA FISH Fish communities will be sampled again in 2010 and results from all years will be correlated with vegetation changes prompted by lake-level changes to develop generalized predictions of fish community change related to different regulation plans.