arab spring and europe...110713 arabspring & eu - euparlmnt hearing - mac11 2 arab spring 2011...

110713 ArabSpring & EU -EUParlmnt Hearing - Mac11

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Arab Spring and Europe:threat or opportunity?

by Moncef Cheikh-RouhouContribution to the Hearing

Trade for ChangeBrussels, July 13 2011

"Trade for Change: The EU Trade and Investment Strategy for the Southern Mediterranean following the Arab Spring revolutions“

13 July 201110.30 - 12.30

ROOM PHS4 B001, Brussels


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Arab Spring 2011

• beyond extracting and exporting resources,

• beyond successful traditional subcontracting,

• Emergence is the name of the game

• The real and sustainable path isHuman Capital Development


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Dignity

• Human :

– Real and RenewedRepresentativity in a Parliament

– Education

• Economic:

– Governance(+3% Growth)

– Open borders(+2% Growth)

Emergence �� Real Stability


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Northern Med countriesFrance Italy Spain Cyprus

Population (millions) 2008 62 59 45 1GDP (US$ billions) 2008 2 866 2 314 1 612 25GDP per capita (US$) 2008 46 016 38 996 35 332 32 772

Greece Slovenia Portugal Malta Israel Turkey NORTH MEDPopulation (millions) 2008 11 2 11 0 7 76 273GDP (US$ billions) 2008 358 55 245 8 202 729 8 412GDP per capita (US$) 2008 32 005 27 149 22 997 20 202 28 365 10 472 30 770

Southern Med countriesLibya Lebanon* Algeria Tunisia

Population (millions) 2008 6 4 34 10 70%GDP (US$ billions) 2008 100 35 160 40 8%GDP per capita (US$) 2008 16 115 8 060 4 588 3 907 11%

Jordan Syria Morocco Egypt SOUTH MEDPopulation (millions) 2008 6 20 32 77 190GDP (US$ billions) 2008 20 55 86 162 658GDP per capita (US$) 2008 3 421 2 757 2 748 2 161 3 460


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77

• Stage 1: “The Wretched of the Earth ”(F Fanon)

• Stage 2: “Black skin, white masks ”(F Fanon)

• Stage 3: Arab Spring “Win/Win ”

Otherwise . . .

Arab World: The Third Stage


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Arab World: Emergence & Hurdles

• EMERGENCEStrong Growth with:

– Enough Job Creation

– B of P balanced at least

– Invest in Infrastructure (Education, Technology)

– Access to Resources

• SUBMERSIONMajor Blockages:

– Barriers

– Poor Gouvernance

– Poor Technology FDI

– Inadequate HR Dvlpt


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The Mediterranean region in 2030:

Scenario 1 : “Generation 11” actors fail to reach political consensus, resulting in a prolonged period of uncertainty, Export of Resources (ouverture subie)

Scenario 2 : Mediterranean Labour and Renewable Energy Partnership, Industrial sub-contracting (ouverture semi choisie)

Scenario 3 : Divided Shores - MediterrAfrica rising“Generation 11” elites are relatively successful at steeringpolitical consensus (ouverture choisie)


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The world is changing

Empires being undone …while Emergence is taking place !

the Mediterranean and Africa, wherewill they be?


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Reagan to Clinton on Ibn KhaldunThere They Go Again

The New York Times February 18, 1993, Thursday, Late Edition - Final

Although it goes back well before the 1980's, mayI offer you the advice of the 14th century Arabhistorian Ibn Khaldun , who said: "At the beginning of the empire, the tax rates were lowand the revenues were high. At the end of the empire, the tax rates were high and the revenues were low."

And, no, I did not personally know Ibn Khaldun , although we may have had some friends in common!


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Qui finance les déficits structurels ?


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Webster ‘61: Arab = Street urchin

Desert dweller


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New North?

New South?

New Center?

Line of Emergence

Scenarios for MediterrAfrica


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Thank you for yourattention!

arab spring and europe...110713 arabspring & eu - euparlmnt hearing - mac11 2 arab spring 2011...

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