ar5 highlights - working group ii
TRANSCRIPT
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportWGI, WGII, WGIII, Synthesis Report
2013/2014 Chris Field
Co-chair, WGII
EMISSIONSand Land-use Change
IMPACTS
Warming over the past century
Based on WGII Figure SPM 4
ARE WIDESPREAD
OBSERVED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
AND CONSEQUENTIAL
Wheat Soy Rice Maize
CROP TYPE
-6
-4
-2
0
2
90th Percentile
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile
10th PercentileYIEL
D IM
PACT
(% C
hang
e pe
r Dec
ade)
WGII Figure SPM 2
AROUND THE WORLD
VULNERABILITY AND EXPOSURE
IN DIFFERENT WAYS
VULNERABLE AND EXPOSED
PEOPLE, SOCIETIES, AND ECOSYSTEMS AROUND THE WORLD
ALREADY OCCURRINGADAPTATION IS
ALREADY OCCURRINGADAPTATION IS
Adaptation is already occurring
• Disaster Risk Management
• Basic Public Health
• Livelihood Diversification
THE LIKELIHOOD OF
INCREASING MAGNITUDESOF WARMING INCREASE
SEVERE AND PERVASIVE IMPACTS
Warming over the 21st century
Based on WGII Figure SPM 4
Warming over the 21st century
1901-2012
End of 21st century
Based on WGII Figure SPM 4
Warming over the 21st century
End of 21st century
Based on WGII Figure 22-1
End of 21st century
1901-2012
2010-2029 2030-2049 2050-2069 2070-2089
20
40
60
80
100
PERC
ENTA
GE O
FYI
ELD
PROJ
ECTI
ONS
02090-2109
0 – -5%-5 – -10%-10 – -25%-25 – -50%-50 – -100%
50 – 100%25 – 50%10 – 25%5 – 10%0 – 5%
Range of Yield Change
Increasein Yield
Decreasein Yield
Risk Level withCurrent Adaptation
Risk LevelVeryLow Med
VeryHigh
4°C
2°C
Present
Long Term(2080-2100)
Near Term (2030-2040)
Assessing risk
Potential forAdditional Adaptation to Reduce Risk
Risk Level withHigh Adaptation
Africa
HEALTH
PresentNear-term
2°C world, 21004°C world, 2100
WATER
Compounded Stress on Water Resources
FOOD
Reduced Crop Productivityand Livelihood and Food Security
Vector- and Water-Borne Diseases
EFFECTIVE CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSESA MORE VIBRANT WORLD
SOCIOECONOMICPROCESSESSocioeconomic
Pathways
Adaptation and Mitigation
Actions
Governance
CLIMATE
NaturalVariability
AnthropogenicClimate Change
RISKHazards
Exposure
Vulnerability
IMPACTS
EMISSIONSand Land-use Change
AnthropogenicClimate Change
AnthropogenicClimate Change
• Mitigation
Vulnerability
Exposure
Vulnerability & Exposure• Vulnerability & exposure reduction• Low-regrets strategies & actions• Addressing multidimensional
inequalities
Risk
Risk• Risk assessment• Iterative risk management• Risk perception
SocioeconomicPathways
Socioeconomic pathways• Diverse values & objectives• Climate resilient pathways• Transformation
Adaptation andMitigation Actions
Adaptation & Interactionswith Mitigation
• Incremental & transformational adaptation
• Co-benefits, synergies, & trade-offs• Context-specific adaptation• Complementary actions
Governance
Governance• Decision- making under
uncertainty• Learning, monitoring, &
flexibility• Coordination across scales
CLIMATE CHANGEREDUCING ANDMANAGING RISKS