applications probability incivil engineering - gbv ofstatistics and ... n. wang, b.r....

PROCEEDINGS OF THE 11TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON APPLICATIONS OFSTATISTICS AND PROBABILITY IN CIVIL ENGINEERING, ZURICH, SWITZERLAND, 1-4 AUGUST 2011

Applications of Statistics and

Probability in Civil Engineering

Department of Civil Engineering, Technical University ofDenmarkLyngby, Denmark

J. KohlerInstitute of Structural Engineering, Swiss Federal Institute of TechnologyZurich, Switzerland

K. NishijimaDepartment of Civil Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

Lyngby, Denmark

Editors

M.H. Faber

CRC PressTaylor &Francis GroupBoca Raton London New York Leiden

CRC Press is an imprint of the

Taylor & Francis Croup, an informa business

A BALKEMA BOOK

Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering - Faber, Kohler & Nishijima (eds)© 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-0-415-66986-3

Table of contents

Preface xxvu

Editor's foreword xxix

Organization

Conference organization

Sponsors xxxvn

xxxni

xxxi

GSJ19— Applications (1)

Fragility curve of sewerage system due to spatial seismic damaged data

S. Nagata & K. Yamamoto

A new time-reversal imaging method for active Lamb wave damage monitoringof composite structures

S. Yan, N.Z. Zhao & Binbin He

Probabilistic concept for the validation of the effectiveness of countermeasures againstearly-age cracking in massive concrete structures

M. Kraufi

Reliability evaluation of pipelines containing stress corrosion cracking defects

W. Zhou & S. Zhang

Proportionality of interventions to restore structural safety of existing bridgesE. Bruhwiler

GS_129 — Applications (2)

Scenario-based seismic loss estimation for concrete buildings in the central US

J. Bai, M. Hueste & P. Gardoni

Application of the Monte-Carlo method to determine the time required for construction

projects—Influence of ranges and correlations on probability distribution

C. Hofstadler

Advances in probability density evolution analysis of nonlinear stochastic systemsJ. Li, IB. Chen & W.L. Sun

Probability density evolution method and polynomial chaos expansion for nonlinear

random vibration analysisY.B. Peng, J. Li&J.B. Chen

Reliability-based stochastic control for structures using magnetorheological dampers/ Li, Z. Mei&J.B. Chen

GS_139— Applications (3)

Random response of chain structure with parameter uncertainties

B, G, Liu, Y. Pan, Y. Ning & Z. Shen

A Bayesian acoustic emission source location algorithm: Extended model

T. Schumacher & D. Straub

v

Structural reliability criteria in relation to on-line control schemes 29

B. J. Leira

Probabilistic anomaly detection in structural monitoring data using a relevance vector machine 31

T. Saito

Assessment of fatigue crack growth by cohesive zone elements 33

P. Beaurepaire & G.I. Schueller

Reliability-based design recommendations for FRP-reinforced concrete beams 35

S.E. C. Ribeiro & S.M. C. Diniz


Simulating two-phase microstructures using level-cut filtered poisson fields

and genetic algorithms 39

K. Teferm&RN. Chatzi

Variance Reduction Monte Carlo methods for wind turbines 41

M. T. Sichani, S.R.K. Nielsen & P. Thoft-Christensen

A computational study of the buffered failure probability in reliability-baseddesign optimization 43

H. G. Basova, R T. Rockafetlar &J.O. Royset

Advanced modeling and simulation tools: From surrogates to copulas 45

M. McCullough, A. Kareem, D.K. Kwon & L. Wang

A ground motion record selection procedure utilizing a vector-valued intensity measurefor optimized incremental dynamic analysis 47

A.I. Theophilou & M.K. Chryssanthopoulos

GSJi28 — Applications (5)

Reliability level of structures designed according to the design codesof the Republic of Belarus 51

Dz. Markouski & V. Tur

Classification and moral evaluation of uncertainties in engineering modeling 53

C. Murphy, C.E. Harris, Jr. & P. Gardoni

Quantitative safety goals—benefits and limits 54

H.-P. Berg & M. Kraufi

Evaluating the source of the risks associated with natural events 56

P. Gardoni & C. Murphy

Metamodeling of aircraft InfraRed Signature dispersion 57

S. Lefebvre, A. Roblin & G. Durand


Practical reliability approach to urban slope stability 63

R. Chowdhury & P. Flentje

Reliability-based optimization of maintenance and repair for a system of bridges 64

C.-A. Robelin & S.M. Madanat

System-level optimization of maintenance and replacement decisions

for road networks 66

A. Medury & S. M. Madanat

Probability-based reliability assessment for real-time hybrid simulation 67

C. Chen & W. Pong

Probabilistic estimates of scenario loss through a two-stage Monte Carlo approach 69

/. Ioannon & M.K. Chryssanthopoulos

vi

MS_332— Applications and new developments of system reliabilityassessment (theory)

System reliability of soil slopes by Ditlevsen's bounds 73

J. Zhang, W.H. Tang, L.M. Zhang & H. W. Huang

A recursive decomposition algorithm for reliability evaluation of binary system 76

W. Liu & J. Li

Seismic reliability analysis of wind turbine systems considering rotation effect 78

K. Huang, J.B. Chen & J. Li

Global reliability of large nonlinear structures 79

J.B. Chen, J.Li&J. Xu

Structural reliability analysis solved through a SVM-based response surface 81

U. Alibrandi & G. Ricciardi

Reliability assessment of parallel systems with brittle elements 82

Y.G. Zhao&Z.H. Lu

MS_114— Bayesian networksfor engineering risk analysis

Risk-based operation and maintenance of offshore wind turbines

using Bayesian networks 87

J.J. Nielsen &J.D. Sorensen

On the use of Bayesian networks for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis 89

KM. Kuehn, C. Riggelsen & F. Scherbaum

Damage assessment of stranding events by means of Bayesian Networks 91

L. Garre, B.J. Leira, T.-H. Nguyen & J. Amdahl

Effect of weather conditions, geography and population density on wildfire occurrence:

A Bayesian Network model 93

P. Papakosta & D. Straub

Post-earthquake decision-making using influence diagrams 95M. T. Bensi, A. Der Kiureghian & D. Straub

MS_115 — Bridge traffic loading (1)

Statistical analyses of Weigh-in-Motion data for bridge live load development 99

T.H.T. Chan & T.J. Miao

Recent advances in reliability based assessment of highway bridges 101

A. O'Connor & V. Pakrashi

Visualization of live-load probability distribution by Random Number generationand a Reliability Analysis of a bridge girder based on the Traffic Flow Model 103

O. Yoshida

Development of live load model for long span bridges 105

E.-S. Hwang, H.-M. Koh &S.W. Lee

MS_125 — Bridge traffic loading (2)

In-situ dynamic behavior of a railway bridge girder under fatigue causingtraffic loading 109

A. Herwig & E. Briihwiler

Modelling of highway bridge traffic loading: Some recent advances 111

B. Enright, C.C. Caprani & EJ. OBrien

Truck load modeling and bridge code calibration 113

G.Fu&J. You

vii

GS_J13 — Decision analysis

Maintenance planning for multi-component systems subject to reliability constraints 117

R. Faddoul, W. Raphael, A.H. Soubra & A. Chateauneuf

Post-earthquake reliability assessment of structures subjected to after-shocks: An applicationto L'Aquila earthquake, 2009 119

F. Jalayer, D. Asprone, A. Prota & G. Manfredi

Supporting decisions on global health and life safety investments 121

M.H. Faber&E. Virguez-Rodriguez

Defining guidelines for the application of the marginal life savingcosts principle for risk regulation 123

K, Fischer, E. Virguez-Rodriguez, M. Sanchez-Siha & M.H. Faber

Adaption of option pricing algorithm to real time decision optimization in the face

of emerging natural hazards 125

A. Anders & K. Nishijima

MS_116 — Fuzzy analysis and soft computing methods in reliability assessmentand optimization (1)

Bayesian quantification of inconsistent information 129

M. Stein & M. Beer

Damage assessment of RC slabs using fuzzy pattern recognition with feature selection 131

H. Furuta, W. Adachi, K. Nakatsu, Y. Nomura & H. Hattori

Clustering of multiple system reliability design solutions for decision making 133

E. Zio & R. Bazzo

Reliability assessment via differential evolution 134

5". Casciati

MS_126— Fuzzy analysis and soft computing methods in reliability assessment

and optimization (2)

Sensitivity measures for fuzzy numbers based on Artificial Neural Networks 139

5". Pannier & W. Graf

A method for the verified solution of finite element models with uncertain node locations 141

A.P. Smith, J. Garloff&H. Werkle

An approach on soundings for geotechnical site investigation 143

D. Boumezerane, S. Belkacemi & B. Zlender

Strong law of large numbers on the Kopka D-posets 144

M. Kukovd & B. Riecan

MS_136—Fuzzy analysis and soft computing methods in reliability assessment

and optimization (3)

Application of Cokriging method to structural reliability problems 149

W. Zhao & W. Wang

On predictive densities in fuzzy Bayesian inference 151

R. Viertl

Robustness based design of structures under consideration of generalized uncertainty models 153

J.-U. Sickert, S. Pannier, W. Graf&M. Kaliske

GSJ238 — Life-cycle analysis

Optimal next inspection time for bridges based on corrosion deterioration 157

D. De Leon, C. Gonzalez-Perez, V. Bisadi, P. Gardoni, M. Head & S. Hurlebaus

viii

Probabilistic estimation of seismic fragility parameters for deteriorated

reinforced concrete bridges 159A. Alipour, B. Shafei & M. Shinozuka

Probabilistic bridge network life-cycle connectivity assessment and optimization 160P. Bocchini & D. M. Frangopol

Life-cycle analysis of embodied energy for aging bridges subject to seismic hazards 162J. Ghosh, C. Tapia &J.E. Padgett

MS_215 — Maintenance and safety of aging infrastructure (1)

Reliability analysis of prestressed concrete bridges located in a marine environment 167M. Akiyama, D.M. Frangopol & I. Yoshida

Optimization of assessment strategies for aging bridges 169

A. D. Orcesi & D.M. Frangopol

Improved bridge capacity rating methods based on system reliability assessment 171N. Wang, B.R. Ellingwood& A.-H. Zureick

Reliability assessment and life prediction for serviceability of concrete bridges 173

D.-G. Lu, W. Jiang, X.-P. Fan & Y.-X. Yang

MS_225 — Maintenance and safety of aging infrastructure (2)

Using information criteria to classify damage states for structural health monitoring 177H. Noh, A. C. Cheung & A.S. Kiremidjian

A Bayesian approach to the assessment of fracture toughness of reactor components 179

M.D. Pandey & M. Wang

A numerical study of maintenance strategy for concrete structures in marine

environment 181

K.F. Tee&C.Q. Li

Structure lifecycle as a non-stationary random process 184

G. Fu & D. Devaraj

MS_118 — Meta-modelslsurrogate modelsfor uncertainty propagation,sensitivity and reliability analysis (1)A numerical comparison of Kriging-based sequential strategies for estimatinga probability of failure 187

L. Li, J. Beet & E. Vazquez

Sensitivity and reliability analysis of a globe valve using an adaptive sparsepolynomial chaos expansion 189

M. Berveiller & G. Blatman

Use of HDMR metamodel for seismic fragility analysis 190

/. Zentner, E. Borgonovo & S. Tarantola

Metamodel-based importance sampling for the simulation of rare events 192

V. Dubourg, F. Deheeger & B. Sudret

Principal component analysis and Least Angle Regression in spectral stochastic finite

element analysis 194

G. Blatman & B. Sudret

MS_128 — Meta-modelslsurrogate modelsfor uncertainty propagation,sensitivity and reliability analysis (2)A Kriging improvement of the Monte Carlo simulation: AK-MCS method 199B. Echard, N. Gayton & M, Lemaire

ix

RPCM: A strategy to perform reliability analysis using polynomial chaos

and resampling—Application to fatigue design 201

A. Notin, J.L. Dulong, P. Villon, N. Gayton, M. Lemaire & H. Jaffal

Distribution-based global sensitivity analysis in case of correlated input parameters

using polynomial chaos expansions 203

Y. Caniou & B. Sudret

Reliability-based design optimization of an imperfect submarine pressure hull 205

V. Dubourg, J.-M. Bourinet, B. Sudret & M. Cazuguel

Propagation of variability in railway dynamics simulations 207

G. Perrin, C. Funjschilling & B. Sudret

GS_123 — Model selection, aggregation and testingfor probabilistic seismichazard assessment (1)

Learning aggregations of ground-motion models using data 211

C. Riggelsen, N. Gianniotis & F. Scherbaum

The collaboratory for the Study ofEarthquake Predictability: Perspectives on evaluation

and testing for seismic hazard 213

D. Schorlemmer, D.D. Jackson, J.D. Zechar & T.H. Jordan

Model selection and uncertainty in earthquake hazard analysis 214

I.G. Main, M. Naylor, J, Greenhough, S. Touati, A.F. Bell & J. McCloskey

Benefits of the use of precariously balanced rocks and other fragile geological features

for testing the predictions of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis 216

J,G. Anderson, J.N. Brum, M. Purvance, G. Biasi&R. Anooshehpoor

GS_133 — Model selection, aggregation and testingfor probabilistic seismic

hazard assessment (2)

Assessing reliability and skill of earthquake forecasting models in Italy 221

W. Marzocchi

On the use of observations for constraining probabilistic seismic hazard estimates—brief

review of existing methods 223

C. Beauval

Quantification of epistemic uncertainties in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis 224

F, Scherbaum, N. Kuehn, M. Ohrnbergei; C. Riggelsen & N. Gianniotis

MS_137— Modellingfor Risk management in constructionprojects

Acceptance criteria for the spatial variability of the concrete cover depthin a Swiss tunnel 229

V. Malioka, S. Matsch & M.H. Faber

Cost and time correlations in linear infrastructure construction 232

Y Moret & H.H. Einstein

Germa, a national research project: Multifactor risk control and management in complex

civil engineering projects 234

D. Morand, P. Perret, L. Demilecamps & A. Machu

Tunnelling optimization by risk analysis techniques 236

D. Kolic

Modeling methodology of the Risk Breakdown Structure for project risk management

in construction 238

R. Mehdizadeh, D. Breysse & M. Chaplain

x

How integrated should risk management and quality management be? 240B. Munier & L. Dehouck

MS_135 — Multiple hazards risk assessment and mitigation

Estimation of damage loss due to hurricane wind and induced surge 243Y. Li, S. O. Bjarnadottii; A. Ahuja, J. W. van de Lindt & T. Dao

Methodological and probabilistic issues in multi-hazard engineering design 245E. Simiu, F.A. Potra & D. Duthinh

Decision-making for civil infrastructure exposed to low-probability, high-consequencehazards: The role of risk-aversion 247E. J. Cha & B.R. Ellingwood

GS_316— Natural hazards modeling

Hazard-level specific hurricane event characterization 251Y. Wang &D.V. Rosowsky

A comprehensive approach for online fast hurricane-risk prediction 253A.A. Taflanidis, A.B. Kennedy, J.J. Westerink, M. Hope, S. Tanaka, J. Smith & K.F. Cheung

Optimal seismic design of steel structures using approximate methods 256A. Zacharenaki, M. Fragiadakis & M. Papadrakakis

Development and calibration of central pressure decay models for hurricane simulation 259F. Liu & W. Pang

Reliability analysis of the Swiss avalanche warning system 261U. Briindl & B. Heil

MS_216 — Performance-based designfor structures subject to natural hazard (1)

Probabilistic hazard model of inelastic response of SDOF system based on equivalentlinearization technique 265Y. Mori, S. Kojima & K. Ibuki

Performance-based design of structures under Aeolian Hazard 267M. Ciampoli & F. Petrini

Probabilistic and deterministic Soil Structure Interaction (SSI) analysis 270A. Hashemi, T. Elkhoraibi & F. Ostadan

Seismic damage assessment of curved bridges using fragility analysis 272M. Mohseni &T.R. Norton

A framework for performance-based design and assessment of buildings subjectedto extreme snow loads 274

A.B. Liel, K.A. Jackson &J.M. Geis

MSJ226 — Performance-based designfor structures subject to natural hazard (2)

Probabilistic assessment of disproportionate collapse potential of steel moment resisting frames 279G. Xu&B.R. Ellingwood

Life-cycle seismic repair cost assessment and sensitivity analysis 281A.A. Taflanidis

A method for probabilistic seismic design of RC structures 283P. Franchin &P.E. Pinto

A statistical analysis of steel truss temperature data recorded during fire resistance tests 285D.K. Banerjee, E. Simiu, J.L. Gross & R. Kacker

xi

MS_124— Probabilistic calibration of codes (1)

Conventional probabilistic models for calibration of codes 289

M. Holicky & M. Sykora

Comparison of load combination models for probabilistic calibrations 291

M. Sykora & M. Holicky

Calibration of partial factors for design of concrete structures 293

J. Markova & M. Holicky

Re-calibration of steel tension members design criteria in AASHTO LRFD

bridge design code 295

M. Mohseni & T.R. Norton

MS_134— Probabilistic calibration of codes (2)

Reliability basis for adopting Eurocodes as South African standards 299

J. V. Relief, C. Barnardo & M. Dithinde

Reliability-based design/calibration using enhanced Monte Carlo 301

A. Naess, M.A. Maes & M.R. Dann

Calculation of partial safety factors 303

T.T. Poutanen

MS__214 — Probabilistic methodsfor the assessment ofexistingconcrete structures (1)

Corrosion-crack path based probabilistic model to predict the durability behavior

of RC components 307

W.L. Jin & X.Z. Wang

Random fields for the modeling of deteriorated structures 308

D.L. Allaix, V.I. Carbone & G. Mancini

Semi-probabilistic models for the assessment of existing concrete structures 309

R Tanner, C. Lara & M. Prieto

Target reliability levels for assessment of existing structures 311

M. Sykora, M. Holicky & J. Markova

MS_224 — Probabilistic methodsfor the assessment of existingconcrete structures (2)

Monitoring and influence lines based performance indicators 315

A. Strauss, R. Wendner, K. Bergmeister & Dan M. Frangopol

Jointless bridges—performance assessment of soil-structure interaction 318

R. Wendner, A. Strauss & K. Bergmeister

A semi-probabilistic safety-checking format for seismic assessment

of existing RC buildings 320

F. Jalayer, L. Elefante, I. Iervolino & G. Manfredi

Stochastic process deterioration modelling for adaptive inspections 322

A. Ohadi & T. Mick

MS_234— Probabilistic methodsfor the assessment of existing concrete structures (3)

Development and implementation of a semi-probabilistic procedure for the assessment

of the future condition of existing concrete structures 327

/ Gulikers

Statistical models for the material parameters of damaged concrete bridges 329

R. Lenner, M. Keuser & T. Braml

xii

Safety assessment of existing concrete slab bridges for shear capacity 331R.D. J.M. Steenbergen, A. de Boer & C. van der Veen

MS_138 — Probabilistic methods in hydraulic and spatial structural analysis

Forecast analysis of traffic flow through urban road tunnel based on Artificial

Intelligent method 337L. Zhong, J. Wu&H. Xia

Non-orthogonal polynomial expansion based approach for structural reliability analysis 339B. Huang & C. Zhang

Application of the sampling theory and methods in random decrement technique 341

W. Shi, Z. Li, II Wu&Y. Lin

Randomness of chloride ion concentration in existing concrete under tidal environment 342

J. Zhang, H. Zheng, L. Wang, J. Zhou & J. Wang

GS_112 — Probabilistic modeling in engineering (1)

Characterization of random fields at multiple scales: An efficient conditional simulation

procedure and applications in geomechanics 347

J. W. Baker, A. Seifried, IE. Andrade & Q. Chen

Performance-based probabilistic capacity models and fragility estimates for reinforced

concrete column subject to vehicle collision 349

H. Sharma, P. Gardoni & S. Hurlebaus

Adaption of car park loads according to DIN 1055-3 to the current trend of increasingvehicle weights 350

H. Schmidt & M. Heimann

Probabilistic modelling of HSC and UHPC slender columns in high-rise buildings 352

H. Schmidt & M. Heimann

Estimating marginal densities of materials with multiple anomaly types 354

M.P. Enright & R.C. McClung


Probabilistic fatigue design of composite material for wind turbine blades 357

H. S. Toft & ID. Sorensen

Fragility estimates for the Fabela Bridge in Mexico incorporating vibration field data 359

V. Bisadi, M. Head, P. Gardoni, S. Hurlebaus & D. De Leon Escobedo

Probabilistic demand model based on the virtual work method and fragility estimates

for offshore wind turbine support structures 361

M. Mardfekri, P. Gardoni &J.M. Roesset

Probability-based modeling of chloride-induced corrosion in concrete structures

including parameters correlation 363

Z. Lounis, B. Saassouh & J. Zhang

Identification of the filament stress transfer length in multifilament yarns usingfiber bundle model and chain-of-bundles model 365

R. Rypl, R. Chudoba & M. Vofechovsky


Probabilistic wind-borne debris trajectory model for building envelope impact risk assessment 369

M. Grayson, W. Pang & S. Schiff

Reliability estimation of deteriorated RC-structures considering various observation data 371

I. Yoshida & M. Akiyama

xiii

A Bayesian framework to predict deformations during supported excavations based

on a semi-empirical method373

J.-K. Park, P. Gardoni & G. Biscontin

Effects of structural uncertainty/variability on the linear and yielding response of a shear frame 375

C.R. Wharton, T.L. Attard, A. Chaudhary & M.P. Mignokt

Non-parametric Bayesian updating within the assessment of reliability for offshore

wind turbine support structures 377

J.G Rangel-Ramirez & ID. Sorensen


Software for multi-model reliability analysis 381

M. Mahsuli & T. Baukaas

Probabilistic modeling of vehicle impact as accidental action 383

C. U. Kunz

Benchmark of random fields simulation methods and links with identification methods 384

X.H. Dang, B. Sudret & M. Berveiller

Size effect on probability distribution of fatigue lifetime of quasibrittle structures 386

Jia-Liang Le &Z.P. Bazant

MS_117 — Probabilistic modelling ofthe behaviour of timber in structures (1)

Comparative risk assessment of secondary structures in wide-span timber structures 391

S. Miraglia, P. Dietsch & D. Straub

Evolution of probabilistic analysis of timber structures from second-moment reliability

methods to fragility analysis 394

D. V, Rosowsky

Performance of timber buildings in earthquakes 397

F. Lam, M. Li, R. O. Foschi, S. Nakajima &. T. Nakagawa

A new approach to consider moisture induced eigen-stress in timber by load combination 399

M. Haglund & F. Carlsson

Probabilistic methods for performance based service life evaluation of wooden components 401

S. Thelandevsson, T. Isaksson, M. Haglund & E. Fruhwald

MS_127 — Probabilistic modelling of the behaviour of timber in structures (2)

Probabilistic robustness analysis of timber structures—results from EU COST

action E55:WG3 405

P.H. Kirkegaard &J.D. Sorensen

Modelling of uncertainties of timber structures due to growth inhomogeneities 407

C. Jenkel, R. Lang & M. Kaliske

Structural timber detailing 409

A. Jorissen

Multiscale variability of stiffness properties of timber boards 411

G. Fink & J. Kohler

Hierarchical modeling of structural timber material properties by means

of Bayesian Probabilistic Networks 413

M, Deublein, M. Schlosser & M.H. Faber

MS_319 — Probabilistic models and methodsfor risk assessment of lifeline networks

and decision support (1)

Clustering methods for risk assessment of infrastructure network systems 417

C. Gomez, M. Sanchez-Silva & L. Duenas-Osorio

xiv

Regional assessment of hurricane risk to Houston bridge infrastructure 419

N. Ataei, CD. Arnold & IE. Padgett

Vulnerability of the Swiss electric power transmission grid against natural hazards 421

M. Raschke, E. Bilis & W. Kroger

Evaluation of seismic vulnerability of sewerage pipelines based on assessment

of the damage data in the 1995 Kobe earthquake 423

G. Shoji, S. Naba & S. Nagata

Seismic fragility analysis of telecommunication systems 425

K. Leelardcharoen, J.I. Craig, B.J. Goodno &L. Duenas-Osorio

MS_329 — Probabilistic models and methodsfor risk assessment of lifeline networksand decision support (2)

Recursive reliability assessment of radial lifeline systems with correlated

component failures 429

J. Rojo & L. Duenas-Osorio

Post-disaster damage detection for pipeline networks by Matrix-based System Reliability analysis 431

W.-H. Rang & J. Song

Efficient identification of critical disjoint cut sets and link sets for network reliability analysis 434

H.-W. Lim & J. Song

Seismic risk assessment of spatially-distributed systems using ground-motion modelsfitted considering spatial correlation 436

N. Jayaram &.J.W. Baker

A FORM-based analysis of lifeline networks using a multivariate seismic intensity model 438M. Miller, J. Baker, H. - W. Lim, J. Song & N. Jayaram

GS_211 — Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (1)

Probabilistic design of supplemental dampers for base-isolated bridges 443

A.A. Taflanidis

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis incorporating basin amplification for shallow

crustal earthquakes 445

T. Itoi & T. Takada

Spatial sensitivity of seismic hazard results to background seismic activity models 448

N. Yilmaz & M.S. Yucemen

Stochastic field analyses of the site amplification factors based on observed and inversely

analyzed real strong ground motion in Japan 450

M. Fukuda, N. Narita, K. Ogawa, M. Sugai & A. Nozu

Development of seismic margin-risk diagram 452

M. Nakajima, Y. Ohtori & K. Hirata


Orientation dependency of peak ductility demand for seismic performance evaluation 455

K. Goda

Methodology and results of a nuclear power plant seismic probabilistic safety assessment 456

M. Richner, S. Tinic, D. Proske, M. Ravindra, R. Campbell, E Beigi & A. Asfura

Redundancy effects on seismic reliability of steel frame structures 457

Q. Li, Q. Zhang, J. Fan & C. Zhang

Regression models for predicting the probability of near-fault earthquake groundmotion pulses, and their period 459

S.K. Shahi&J.W. Baker

xv

Performance-based direct displacement design of engineered timber building

in seismic regionsY. Wang, D. V. Rosowsky &W.C. Pang


Influence of material strength scattering on the ductile response of steel structures

M. Gilndel, B. Hoffmeister & M. Feldmann

A response spectrum based stochastic approach to estimate the peak response

of structures subject to seismic poundingA. Giaralis &P.D. Spanos

On the schematization of design response spectra as a stochastic model

S. Silvestri, G. Gasparini & T. Trombetti

A new procedure for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

G. Gasparini, S. Silvestri & T. Trombetti

Vector-valued probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of correlated ground motion parameters

P. Bazzurro & J. Park

MS_236 — Progresses and challenges in probabilistic modeling of tropical storm risks

Hurricane hazard characterization for performance-based design

D. V. Rosowsky, Y. Wang & K.H. Lee

Tropical cyclone return periods: Comparison of a stochastic track model with an extreme

value analysis of historic data

J. Kleinn &T.M. Hall

Future typhoon projection using stochastic typhoon model under global climate change

T. Yasuda, S. Nakajo, N. Mori, H. Mase, Y. Hayashi & S. Kunitomi

Challenges in developing the Florida public hurricane loss model for personal residential

and commercial residential structures

G.L. Pita, J.-P. Pinelli, T. Johnson, K. Gurley, J. Weekes & S. Hamid

Issues of epistemic uncertainty treatment in decision analysis for tropical cyclone

risk managementM. Graf& K. Nishijima

Assessment of hurricane risk and estimates of insured losses using catastrophe modeling

S.S. Hamid, J.-P Pinelli, S.-C. Chen & K. Gurley

MSJ326 — Recent advances in geotechnical risk and reliability (1)

Methods for incorporating a variety of site response estimates into seismic hazard maps

E. M. Thompson & L. G. Baise

Reliability-based design of shallow foundations in cohesionless soils under compression

loading: Ultimate limit state

S. 0. Akbas &F.H. Kulhawy

Effect of spatial variability on reliability evaluation of an earth slopeY, Wang, Z.J. Cao & S.K. Au

Probabilistic characteristics of strip footing bearing capacity evaluated

by random finite element method

J. Pieczynska, W. Pula, D. V. Griffiths & G.A. Fenton

Evaluation of reliabilities of drilled shafts using bi-directional pile load test results

J.H. Park, D. Kim, K. Kwak, J.H. Lee & M. Chung

xvi

GS_336— Recent advances in geotechnical risk and reliability (2)

Development of a computer-based evaluation system for soil parameters in the reliabilitydesign method 501

Y. Watabe, M. Tanaka, T. Nishioka & I. Nozaki

On risk-based geotechnical site investigation of flood defenses 504

T. Schweckendiek, P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder &E.O.F. Calle

Challenges in limit equilibrium based slope reliability problems 507

J. Ching, K.-K. Phoon & Y.-G. Hu

Spatial distributions of strength of an embankment based on synthesis of sounding tests

and surface wave method 509

S. Nishimura, Y. Takayama, K. Fujisawa, M. Suzuki & A. Murakami

Evaluating model uncertainty of a CPT-based model for earthquake-induced soil liquefaction 512

Y.F. Lee, Y.Y. Chi&C.H. Juang

GS_312 — Reliability methods (1)

System reliability analysis of fatigue-induced, cascading failures using critical failure

sequences identified by selective searching technique 517

N. Kurtz, J. Song, S.-Y. Ok& D.-S. Kim

Estimation of failure rates of crude product pipelines 520

A. W. Dawotola, P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder, J.J. Charima & J.K. Vrijling

Reliability analysis with probabilistic and interval variables 523

K. Zaman, M. McDonald, S. Rangavajhala & S. Mahadevan

Dormant reliability analysis for dam spillways 524

M. Kalantarnia, L. Chouinard & S. Foltz

On the utilization of monitoring data in an ultimate limit state reliability analysis 526

5". Thons, M.H. Faber & W. Rucker

GS_322 — Reliability methods (2)

Identification of random variables via Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Benefits

on reliability analysis 531

F. Lanata & F. Schoefs

Risk quantification of fatigue-induced sequential failures by Branch-and-Bound method

employing system reliability bounds 533

Y.-J. Lee & J. Song

Reliability analysis of corroding RC members using adaptive Response Surface Method 535

A.N. Kallias & M.I. Raflq

Uncertain and unavoidable—reliability estimation in wave and tidal energy systems 537

J. Flinn & C.B. Ferreira

Post earthquake bridge damage assessment coupling field data and reliability tool 539

M. Torbol, R. Baghaei, J. Rang & M. Feng

MS_235 — Reliability of marine energy converters

Reliability of tidal stream turbine blades 543

D. V. Vol & L. Chernin

Reliability of power train components in tidal stream turbines 545

D. V. Val & C. Iliev

xvii

Reliability methodology for evaluating tidal stream devices 547

T.M. Deform & P.J. Tamer

Probabilistic design of wave energy devices 549

J.D. Serensen, J.P. Kofoed & C.B. Ferreira

MSJ217— Risk and reliability analysisfor interdependent

infrastructure systems (1)

Seismic risk and hierarchy importance of interdependent lifelines: Methodologyand important issues 553

M.N. Alexoudi, KG. Kakderi&KD. Pitilakis

Modeling cascading failures in 'systems of systems' with uncertain behavior 555

E. Zio & G. Sansavini

Modeling of restoration process associated with lifeline systems and the interdependencydue to a seismic disaster 557

G. Shoji & A. Toyota

A new modeling approach for resolving CI interdependency issues 559

C. Nan & W. Kroger

MSJ227— Risk and reliability analysisfor interdependentinfrastructure systems (2)

Models of interdependence propagation for the fragility assessment of urban networks 563

I. Hernandez-Fajardo & L. Duenas-Osorio

On robust decision-making in interdependent economic and infrastructure systems 565

R. Pant & K. Barker

Broadening the discourse on infrastructure interdependence by modeling the "Ecology"of infrastructure systems 567

S. LaRocca, S.D. Guikema, J. Cole & E. Sanderson

Geographical vulnerability analysis of interdependent critical infrastructures 568

J. Johansson & H. Hassel

GS_219 — Risk assessment (1)

Revisiting risk management in major infrastructure projects—why a socio-technical

systems approach makes sense 573

N.J. Smith, B. Aritua, C. Clegg&R. Challenger

Building owners' requirement for seismic risk communication during structural design 575

K. Hirata & T. Ishikawa

Global flood risk assessment of major port cities 577

N. hind, M. Pandey & J. Nathwani

Assessment of risk to life safety in fire compartments using an adaptive response

surface methodology 579

C. Albrecht & D. Hosser

Effects of uncertainty on the seismic collapse risk of light-frame wood buildings 582

Y.-J. Yin & Y. Li

GS_229 — Risk assessment (2)

Estimation of risk for design of structures exposed to combined effects of hurricane

wind speed and storm surge hazards 587

L. T. Phan & E. Simiu

xviii

Risk assessment for road tunnels in Germany—development and applicationof quantitative methods 589

F. Heimbecher & B. Kohl

Risk assessment for the hazard scenario "Braking action on double track railway bridges" 591

C. Fermaud, F. Stenger, V. Malioka & M. Schenkel

Regional risk by reliability analysis 593

M. Mahsuli & T. Haukaas

A probabilistic framework for generic fire risk assessment and risk-based decision makingin buildings 595

G. De Sanctis, K. Fischer, J. Kohler, M. Fontana & M.H. Faber

MS_218— Risk assessment and decision support systemsfor interdependentlifeline infrastructures (1)

Optimum interface topologies between urban infrastructure systems 599

M. Ouyang, L. Duenas-Osorio & X. Min

Risk assessment of shutdown of water purification plant caused by Tohnankai-Nankai

earthquakes tsunami surge 601

M. Nakai & M. Miyajitna

Disaster restoration support technologies for electric power distribution equipment 603

Y. Shumuta, T. Todou, K. Masukawa & T. Ishikawa

Ethical consideration for appropriate structural safety 605

J. Kanda & D. G. Elms

Risk assessment and maintenance of existing trunk lines with a new subsidiary systemunder seismic and deteriorating environments 607

T. Imai & T. Koike

MS_228— Risk assessment and decision support systemsfor interdependentlifeline infrastructures (2)

Seismic risk and hierarchy importance of interdependent lifelines and infrastructures within

port facilities: Application in Thessaloniki's Port (Greece) 611

KG. Kakderi, M.N. Alexoudi & K.D. Pitilakis

A fuzzy comparative model for integrated risk ranking and mitigation prioritizationof infrastructures; part 1: Methodology 614

M.B. Javanbarg, C. Scawthom, J. Kiyono, B. Shahbodaghkhan & S. Takada

A fuzzy comparative model for integrated risk ranking and mitigation prioritizationof infrastructures; part 2: Application 616

J. Kiyono, M.B. Javanbarg, S. Takada, C. Scawthom & M. Kobayashi

A questionnaire survey to customers on willingness to pay for earthquake countermeasuresof water supply system by using risk communication 618

Y. Taniguchi & M. Miyajima

MS_131 — Risk-based assessment of climate change adaptationstrategiesfor infrastructure

Deterioration of concrete structures in Australia under changing environment 623

M. G. Stewart, X. Wang & M. Nguyen

Probabilistic-based assessment of the impacts of climate change on hurricane loss

and adaptation strategies 625

S. O. Bjarnadottir, Y. Li & M. G. Stewart

xix

Considerations for probabilistic assessment of the effect of global warming on durabilityof corroding RC structures 627

E. Bastidas-Arleaga, F, Schoefs & M. G. Stewart

Development of adaptive flood risk management strategies under uncertainty 630

H. Harvey &J.W. Hall

Probabilistic assessment of clay earthfill dams subject to variable precipitation 632

M.-C. Preziosi & T. Micic

MS_323 — Robustness ofstructures (1)

Robustness of structures—a report on a joint European project 637

M.H. Faber, A.C, W.M. Vrouwenvelder, J.D. Sorensen, M.K. Chryssanthopoulos & H. Narasimhan

A threat independent approach to evaluating the robustness of structures 640

S.M. Mavjanishvili

Risk and robustness of road tunnels 642

D. Diamantidis & M. Holicky

Progressive collapse in multi-storey steel frames: The effect of varying column spacing 643

V. Janssens &D.W. O'Dwyer

Achieving robustness and mitigating risk of disproportionate collapse in building 645

B.R. EUingwood

MS_333 — Robustness of structures (2)

Probability based assessment of bridge exposed to extraordinary circumstances 649

/. Bjornsson, S. Thelandersson & K. Petersen

Robust flood defences in a changing environment 652

H.G. Voortman & M. Veendorp

Experimental and computational assessment of robustness of steel and reinforced

concrete framed buildings 654

J.A. Main, Y. Bao, F. Sadek & H.S. Lew

Fragility curve of steel containment failure due to hydrogen deflagration 656

D. Proske & M. Richner

Seismic damage probabilities for segmented buried pipelines 657

S. Toprak, E. Nacawglu & A. C. Koc

A reliability-based measure of robustness for concrete structures subjected to corrosion 660

E. S. Cavaco, L.A.C. Neves &J.R Casus

MSJ237— Socialperspectivesfor hazards decision

Making the case for resilience investments 665

E. Seville, J. Vargo, J. Stevenson & A. Stephenson

Rebuilding L'Aquila following the 2009 earthquake: Priorities and perspectives 667

A.B. Liel, R.B. Corotis, J. Sutton, G. Camata, E. Spacone & R. Holtzman

The function of regulations and incentives for societal safety 669

A. Lentz & LB. Kroon

Political pitfalls in hazards planning 671

R. Corotis

MSJ514— Spatialprobabilistic modeling of deterioration and inspection (1)

Optimization of inspection and monitoring of structures in case of spatial fields

of deterioration/properties 675

F. Schoefs, T.V. Tran & E. Bastidas-Arteaga

xx

Repair efficiency and Life-Cycle Cost of RC bridge deck maintenance subjectedto spatially variable corrosion damage 678

J.A. Mullard & M. G. Stewart

A unified probabilistic treatment for in-line inspection with respect to detectability,reportability, false call potential and depth sizing 681

M.A. Maes&M.R. Dann

Spatial hierarchical POD model for in-line inspection data 683

M.R. Dann &M.A. Maes

MS_324— Spatial probabilistic modeling of deterioration and inspection (2)

Reliability of pipelines under corrosion and mechanical damage 687

F.A.V. Bazan &A.T. Beck

The performance of sampling inspections for localized deterioration process 689

S.P. Kuniewski & J.A.M. vander Weide

Influence of including spatial variability modelling on whole life managementof concrete structures 690

A.J. O'Connor

Reliability updating with inspection and monitoring data in deterioratingreinforced concrete slabs 692

D. Straub

MS_334 — Spatial probabilistic modeling of deterioration and inspection (3)

Spatial deterioration model updating of aging RC structures based on inspection information 697

K. G. Papakonstantinou & M. Shinozuka

Statistical analysis of the surfaces of corroded mild steel plates 699

R. E. Melchers, M. Ahammed, R. Jeffrey & G. Simundic

Random field modelling of spatial variability in FRP composite materials 701

S. Sriramula & M.K. Chryssanthopoulos

Spatial variability of potential fields in reinforced concrete structures 703

5. Kessler, C. Gehlen, D. Straub & M. Huber

GS_317— Statistical investigations andprobabilistic modeling (1)

Bayesian models for the detection of high risk locations on Portuguese motorways 709

S.M. Azeredo-Lopes & J.L. Cardoso

Statistical analysis of mechanical properties of prestressing strands 711

L. Jacinto, M. Pipa, L. 0. Santos & L. C. Neves

Probabilistic model for damage accumulation in concrete tunnel lining and its applicationto optimal repair strategy 713

H. Tanaka, O. Mamyama & A. Sutoh

Application of extreme value theory to discriminate between failure modes 715

R.E. Melchers

Development of state-based Markovian transition probabilities for bridgecondition estimation 717

T.M. Reale&A.J. O'Connor

GS_327— Statistical investigations andprobabilistic modeling (2)

A model for the failure probability of components of electrical substations

under seismic load 721

M. Raschke

xxi

A study of the stochastic properties of auto-correlation coefficients for microtremor data

simultaneously observed at two sites 723

H. Morikawa, K. liyama & M. Ohari

A Bayesian approach to analysing structural uncertainties in flood inundation models 726

L. Manning &J.W. Hall

Seismic loss modeling of two building portfolios using generalized Pareto model and copula 728

K. Goda & J. Ren

ACER function plots as a diagnostic tool for extreme value prediction 730

A. Naess & O. Gaidai

MS_337— Statistical investigations andprobabilistic modeling (3)

Statistical analysis of NDT results for analysing the efficiency of repair techniques of wharves:

The MAREO project 735

F. Benmeddow; G. Villain, X. Derobert, O. Abraham, F. Schoefs, M. Perrin, S. Bonnet & M. Choinska

The a8 method for reliability modeling and improvement of NDT-tools for Risk Based

Inspection (RBI): Application to corroded structures 738

F, Schoefs & J. Boero

Fluctuation Analysis of stochastic physical systems based on Probability Density

Evolution Method 741

W.L. Sun, J. Li &J.B. Chen

The use of quasi-symmetric point method in probability density evolution method 743

J. Xu, IB. Chen & J. Li

MS_331 — Stochastic models and simulation ofearthquake ground motions

Seismic risk sensitivity analysis focusing on stochastic ground motion modeling 749

A. A. Tajlanidis & C. Vetter

Simulation of seismic ground motion time histories from data using

a non Gaussian stochastic model 752

I. Zentner, F. Poirion & P. Cacciola

Stochastic model for earthquake ground motion using wavelet packets 754

Y. Yamamoto &J.W. Baker

Simulation of non-stationary differential support motions accounting for varyingsoil conditions 757

K. Konakli & A. Der Kiureghian

Stochastic simulation of near-fault ground motions for specified earthquakeand site characteristics 759

M. Dabaghi, S. Rezaeian & A. Der Kiureghian

GS_222 — Structural reliability (1)

Variance reducing capacity of concrete conformity control in structural reliability analysisunder parameter uncertainties 763

R. Caspeele & L. Taerwe

Corrosion effects onto the safety of steel sheet pile walls in marine environment 765

P. Osbrio, C. Odenbreit, M. Greger & T. Vrouwenvelder

Robustness analysis of structural systems considering accidental actions 767

N. Kagho, A. Orcesi & C. Cremona

A coupling Bayesian/reliability approach for robust updating applications 769

B. Richard, L. Adelaide, A. Orcesi & C. Cremona

xxii

Comparative study of safety formats for nonlinear finite element analysis of concrete structures 771

H. Schlune, M. Plos & K. Gylltoft


Probabilistic analysis of iced structures 775

J. Markova

Probabilistic durability assessment of power-producing facilities 777

M. Holicky & J. Markova

Uncertainty effects on dynamic response evaluations of wind energy offshore platform 779

K. Kawano, Y. Kimura, K. Nagafuchi & T. Takahashi

Seismic risk assessment of building-elevator systems based on simulated ground motion

considering long period components and phase characteristics 781

M. Kohiyama & T. Kita

Structural reliability analysis of steel sheet-pile seawalls subjected to corrosion

in harbour environment 783

J. Boero, H. Yanez-Godoy, B. Capra &F. Schoefs


Reliability-based design optimization via a concurrent process 787

K. W. Liao

Efficient method for the probability assessment of ellipsoidal limit state surface 789

S.D. Koduru

Modeling structural degradation of RC bridge columns subjected to cumulative seismic

damage and their fragility estimates 791

R. Kumar & P. Gardoni

Calibration of reliability-based load rating method for New York State 792

M. Ghosn, B. Sivakumar & F. Miao

Structural reliability in the fire situation, the effect of active fire safety 794

J.-B. Schkich


Seismic fragility of RC bridges using the data obtained from nondestructive testing 799

Q. Huang, P. Gardoni & S. Hurlebaus

Use of BWIM data for bridge assessment 800

M. Petschacher

Harmonic wavelet-based statistical linearization of the Bouc-Wen hysteretic model 802

P.D. Spanos & LA. Kougioumtzoglou

Reliability analysis of stresses in prestressed concrete girder under service live load 804

E.-S. Hwang, I.-R. Paik & S.H Nguyen

Fragility analysis for sensor fault detection of smart structures 806

Y. Kim&J.-W.Bai

MS_315 — The treatment of uncertainties in large-scale stochastic systems (1)

Stochastic responses of Navier-Stokes equations computed with dynamicallyorthogonal field equations 809

T.P. Sapsis & P.F.J. Lennusiaux

Seismic reliability of frame structures with non-Gaussian system properties 811

G. Stefanou & M. Fragiadakis

xxiii

Pile settlement analysis on spatially random soil 812

G, Stefanou, G. Pittas & M. Papadrakakis

A response surface method for nonlinear stochastic dynamic analysis 813

U. Alibrandi

Estimating seismic performance uncertainty using IDA with progressive accelerogram-wise

latin hypercube sampling 814

D. Vamvatsikos

MS_325 — The treatment of uncertainties in large-scale stochastic systems (2)

The use of homotopy WHEP algorithm for solving stochastic differential equations 819

M.A. El-Tawil

Efficient sensitivity analysis of complex engineering problems 820

T. Most

Simulation of strongly non-Gaussian stochastic vector processes using translation process theory 822

M.D. Shields & G. Deodatis

Computational reliability analysis of Soil-Foundation-Structure Interaction (SFSI) systems 824

Q. Gu, M. Barbato & IP. Conte

MS_213 — Uncertainty and imprecision in geotechnical and structural engineering (1)

Error proneness in construction 829

F. Knoll

The role of uncertainty in the political process for risk investment decisions 831

H. Bonstrom, R. Corotis & K. Porter

Evaluation of the safety criteria of Brazilian Standard NBR 6118 for slender members based

on reliability analyses 833

F.R. Stucchi, S.H.C. Santos &R.M. Franco

Uncertainty analysis in geotechnical engineering—a comparativestudy of selected approaches 835

M. Beer, Y. Zhang, S.T. Quek & K.K. Phoon

Debris flow impact uncertainty modeling with Grey numbers 837

D. Proske


Evaluation and implications of soil variability in tunneling 841

M. Huber, P.A. Vermeer & C. Moormann

Risks of analyses with lateral earth pressure load 842

P. Koudelka

Uncertainty correlation in structural performance assessment 844

J.-A. Goulet &I.F.C. Smith

Seismic response evaluations of ground pavement system with uncertainty 846

K. Nagafuchi, K. Kawano & Y. Kimura

Resolution and uncertainty analysis in Bayesian FE model updating applied to the damageassessment in a reinforced concrete beam 848

E. Simoen, E. Reynders, G. Lombaert & G. De Roeck

MSJ233 — Uncertainty and imprecision in geotechnical and structural engineering (3)

An extension of limit state functions by parameterized probability measures 853

T.Fetz

xxiv

On the optimal scaling of the Modified Metropolis-Hastings algorithm 855

K.M. Zuev, J.L. Beck & L.S. Katafygiotis

Non-specificity modeling of concrete cracking strength using possibility theory 856

J.J. Kim, M.M. Recla Taha & T.J. Ross

Likelihood-based representation of imprecision due to sparse point data and/or interval data 858

S. Sankararaman & S. Mahadevan

Response bounds for structures with interval stiffness 859

N. Impollonia, S. Zito, G. Muscolino & F. Saitta


Stochastic optimal structural control 863

K. Marti

Risk acceptance criteria based on uncertain estimates of structural failure probabilities 865

S.G Reid

Interval finite elements for nonlinear material problems 867

M. V. Rama Rao, R.L. Mullen & R.L. Muhanna

Reliability-based design for steel drive-in racks under forklift truck impact 869

H. Zhang, B.R Gilbert &K.J.R. Rasmussen

Reliability analysis of steel scaffold shoring structures 871

H. Zhang, K.J.R. Rasmussen & B.R. Ellingwood

GS_111 — Uncertainty, statistics andprobability (1)

Robust simulation for sensitivity analysis of catastrophe risk losses 875

R.J. Murnane, C.E. Taylor, T. Jagger & Z. Hu

Propagation of aleatoric uncertainty in light-frame wood shear walls 878

S.M.H. Shirazi& W. Pang

Shear strength variability of sandy and fine-grained soils 881

P. Koudelka

Correlation in probabilistic simulation 883

M. Vofechovsky

Computational intelligence techiques with modern applications of fuzzy pattern classification 885

I.R latan

GS_121 — Uncertainty, statistics andprobability (2)

Reliability analysis of a brittle fracture due to crack instability using sequentialMonte Carlo simulation 889

L.E. Garciano & I. Yoshida

Life-cycle assessment and uncertainty in modelling: Introduction of a possible "aid" index 891

E. Garavaglia

Mechanical characterisation of lacustrine clay by interpreting spatial variability

in CPTU measurements 893

G. Vessia, F. Casini & S. Springman

Dynamic response variability of a small span bridge for high speed rail traffic 896

J. Rocha, A.A. Henriques & R. Calgada

Author index 899

xxv

applications probability incivil engineering - gbv ofstatistics and ... n. wang, b.r....

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