appendix - jica · engr. e.o ajayi, director (erd), fmp mr. masatsugu komiya, jica team mr. austin...

Appendix

A-1 Persons and Organizations Concerned

Details of Technical Working Group

Group Leader (Chair Person)-Power Development Planning Group (Technical) Leader-Power Development Planning

Group Secretary-Power Development Planning

Engr. E.O Ajayi, Director (ERD), FMP Mr. Masatsugu Komiya, JICA Team

Mr. Austin O. Abegunde, DD (P) FMP

Mr. Makoto Abe, JICA TeamGroup Coordinator

Dr. Sunday Owolobi, ACE (ERD) FMP

* 〇:Main Counterparts

Group (Technical) Coordinator-Power Development Planning

A-1 The Persons and

Organizations C

oncerned

Transmission/Substation planning

/Power system analysisPower Demand Forecast Power generation planning

(Thermal power development) Power sector policy

Primary energy analysis Power generation planning(Hydro power development) Economic and financial analysis Environmental and social

considerations

[Technical Counterparts]JICA Team :Mr. Kyoji FujiiJICA Team :Mr. Takeshi HaraFMP :Engr. Eugene EjeregbeFMP :Engr. Anikpe Kenechukwu JosiahTCN :Engr. Aribaba P. A. (Planning)TCN :Engr. Emeka ChiatulaTCN :Engr. Eric Hampashi (NCC)TCN :Engr. Olayanju J. O. (MO)

[Technical Counterparts]JICA Team :Mr. Tomoyuki InoueFMP :Dr. Sunday Owolabi (ERD)TCN :Engr. Ishola B. A. (NCC)TCN :Engr. Ikeli H. N. (Planning)TCN :Engr. Charles Nnajide (NCC)TCN :Engr. Obishai F. N. (MO)

[Technical Counterparts]JICA Team :Mr. Sudipto BhowmikJICA Team :Mr. Kazuaki KondoFMP :Engr. Philip Okpanefe (TSD)TCN :Engr. Abba-Aliyu (Planning)TCN :Engr. A. Nazif (Planning)TCN :Engr. E. C. Umoh (NCC)

[Technical Counterparts]JICA Team :Ms. Izumi TakaiFMP :Mr. A.A. Ayodele (TSD)FMP :Engr. Abel Philipele (RRD)ECN :Engr. J. S. OlayandeECN :Mr. Sulu B. F. IbrahimTCN :Anumaka, Corporate Plan.TCN :Paul Ilondu, Corporate Plan.

[Technical Counterparts]JICA Team :Mr. Hideki OtakeFMP :Engr. Eneh Kingsley (ERD) ECN :Engr. J. S. OlayandeECN :Mr. Sulu B. F. IbrahimTCN :Engr. Aribaba P. A. (Planning)TCN :Engr. Emeka ChiatulaTCN :Engr. Eric Hampashi (NCC)TCN :Engr. Olayanju J. O. (MO)

[Technical Counterparts]JICA Team :Mr. Kaoru NishiwakiFMP :Engr. O.T, Owoeye (ERD)TCN :Engr.Aribaba P. A. (Planning)TCN :Engr. Emeka ChiatulaTCN :Engr. Eric Hampashi (NCC)TCN :Engr. Olayanju J. O. (MO)

[Technical Counterparts]JICA Team :Mr. Yusuke HaradaFMP :Mr. S.A. Dashi (P)FMP :Engr. Ben Ayangeaor (ERD)TCN :Engr. Abolomope R. O. (AC)TCN :Engr. Ajibade M. A. (Planning)TCN :Engr. Ogbu B. C. (MO)

[Technical Counterparts]JICA Team :Ms. Yuriko KudoFMP :Engr. Tony Umenyen (TSD)FMP :Engr. Ekanem Effiong (DSD)TCN :Olisa M. Okoli (HSE)TCN :Ifeoma Nwachukwu (HSE)

[Assistance necessary from]NDPHC, NERC, TCN-SO, NBET, NNPC, Gencos, ISAP

[Assistance necessary from]TCN-SO, TCN-MO, Gencos, Discos,NERC, REA, ISAP

[Assistance necessary from]NDPHC, TCN-SO, PTFP

[Assistance necessary from]ECN, NERC, NBET, BPE, NOTAP, PTFP, ICRC

[Assistance necessary from]ECN, NNPC, NGC, NAEC, FMARD, FMMSD, FMW, NIMET

[Assistance necessary from]FMW, TCN-SO, NERC, NBET, ISAP

[Assistance necessary from]NPC-1, NERC, NBET, NGC, TCN-TSP, NBS, NPC-2, FMF, CBN

[Assistance necessary from]FME, NESRA, NPC-2, TCN

A-1-1

CBN: Central Bank of NigeriaDiscos: Distribution CompaniesDSD: Distribution Services Department (FMP)ECN: Energy Commission of NigeriaERD: Energy Resources Department (FMP)FMARD: Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural DevelopmentFME: Federal Ministry of EnvironmentFMF: Federal Ministry of FinanceFMMSD: Federal Ministry of Mines and Steel DevelopmentFMP: Federal Ministry of PowerFMW: Federal Ministry of Water ResourcesGnenos: Generation CompaniesGP D&C: Generation Planning and Data Control (TCN)ICRC: Infrastructure Concession Regulatory CommissionISAP: Initial Stakeholder Advisory PanelNAEC: Nigeria Atomic Energy Commission NBET: Nigeria Bulk Electricity TradingNBS: National Bureau of StatisticsNDPHC: Niger Delta Power Holding CompanyNERC: National Electricity Regulatory CommissionNESRA: National Environmental standards & Regulations Enforcement Agency NGC: Nigerian Gas Company LimitedNIMET: Nigerian Meteorological AgencyNNPC: Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation NOTAP: National Office for Technology Acquisition and Promotion (Ministry of Science and Technology) NPC-1: National Planning CommissionNPC-2: National Population CommissionPTFP: Presidential Task Force on PowerREA: Rural Electrification AgencyRRD: Renewable and Rural Power Access Department (FMP)TCN: Transmission Company of NigeriaTCN-MO: TCN-Market OperationTCN-SO: TCN-System OperationTCN-TSP: TCN-Transmission Service ProviderTSD: Transmission Services Department (FMP)

Annex-

1 T

he P

erso

ns an

d O

rganizatio

ns C

oncern

ed

A-1-2

A-2 PPA Price of GenCo and IPP

and Nominal Tariff of DisCo

A-2 PPA Price of GenCo and IPP and Nominal Tariff of DisCo

PPA Price of GenCo and IPP

発電所料金種別単位 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

SUCCESSOR GenCo HYDRO

Capacity price NGN/MW 4,571.33 4,739.84 4,456.76 4,677.21 4,677.59 4,677.59 4,677.59 4,677.59

Energy price NGN/MWh 1,005.67 1,043.28 994.40 1,069.52 1,070.49 1,070.49 1,070.49 1,070.49

SUCCESSOR GenCo THERMAL


Energy price NGN/MWh 5,443.63 5,645.19 6,418.71 7,637.69 7,847.14 8,062.47 8,285.92 8,517.78

OMOTOSHO

Capacity price NGN/MW 4,783.00 5,057.35 5,092.30 5,129.06 5,138.69 5,148.44

Energy price NGN/MWh 4,956.00 5,887.21 6,129.11 6,381.15 6,581.48 6,788.84

OLORUNSOGO

Capacity price NGN/MW 4,783.00 5,057.35 5,092.30 5,129.06 5,138.69 5,148.44

Energy price NGN/MWh 4,956.00 5,887.21 6,129.11 6,381.15 6,581.48 6,788.84

NIPP THERMAL



AGIP OKPAI



AFAM VI



IBOM POWER



OMOKU



AES


Energy price NGN/MWh

TRANS AMADI



RIVERS IPP



A-2-1

Nominal Tariff of DisCo

(NGN/MWh) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

1 Abuja 5,674.62 4,728.01 4,715.69 7,845.89 8,160.99 8,709.53 9,281.45 9,872.81

2 Benin 6,217.67 5,118.44 4,973.61 8,236.07 8,380.88 8,909.50 9,469.09 10,052.47

3 Enugu 6,069.57 5,015.83 4,920.75 8,167.05 8,383.36 8,943.43 9,532.41 10,143.95

4 Ibadan 7,161.95 5,923.00 5,798.89 9,763.89 10,082.92 10,806.63 11,568.95 12,362.95

5 Jos 6,714.11 5,552.06 5,452.62 9,243.31 9,624.66 10,345.79 11,097.09 11,873.00

6 Kaduna 6,977.06 5,691.26 5,542.81 9,229.21 9,511.32 10,093.63 10,702.27 11,331.54

7 Kano 5,355.13 4,440.28 4,457.95 7,361.71 7,711.27 8,233.95 8,773.01 9,324.94

8 Eko 5,788.03 4,831.24 4,766.20 8,140.28 8,513.34 9,196.81 9,905.22 10,633.83

9 Ikeja 4,504.32 3,834.59 3,823.86 6,597.97 6,948.80 7,570.30 8,210.59 8,865.91

10 Port Harcourt 6,368.04 5,226.33 5,174.24 8,585.09 8,927.03 9,504.00 10,102.30 10,717.50

11 Yola 7,140.64 5,873.62 5,917.75 9,649.02 10,061.09 10,753.78 11,479.56 12,232.01

12 Total 6,021.51 4,993.60 4,927.92 8,264.39 8,576.42 9,189.78 9,829.42 10,490.13

A-2-2

A-3 Nigeria Power System

(Existing and Planning for 2040)

A-4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop

4th September 2015 1ST JOINT COORDINATION COMMITTEE

( INCEPTION WORKSHOP )

AA4　Record of JCC and TWG Workshop

A-4-1

TIME TABLE FOR 1ST JOINT COORDINATION COMMITTEE (INCEPTION

WORKSHOP) ON THE PROJECT FOR MASTER PLAN STUDY ON

NATIONAL POWER SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT

IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA

VENUE: MINISTER’S CONFERENCE ROOM

PLACE: 4TH FLOOR, FEDERAL MINISTRY OF POWER FEDERAL SECRETARIAT

DATE: 4TH SEPTEMBER, 2015.

[General Session]

Time Event/Activity Action by

10:00-10:10 Opening Remarks

from the Federal Ministry of Power

PS-FMP

10:10-10:20 Introduction All

10:20-10:30 Key note address Chief Representative–

JICA Nigeria Office

10:30-10:40 Outline of the Project Mr. Masatsugu Komiya,

Mr. Makoto Abe

10:40-10:55 General discussion All

10:55-11:00 Closing remarks PS-FMP

[Technical Session]

Time Event/Activity Action by

11:30-11:40 Opening Remarks

from Federal Ministry of Power

Director, ERD-FMP


~Presentation by JICA Team~

11:50-12:00 Power Demand Forecasts JICA Team

12:00-12:10 Power Generation Planning JICA Team

12:10-12:20 System Planning and System Analysis JICA Team

12:20-12:30 Environmental and Social

Considerations

JICA Team

12:30-12:55 General discussion All

12:55-13:00 Closing remarks Director, ERD-FMP

Note:

FMP- Federal Ministry of Power, PS- Permanent Secretary, ERD- Energy Resources

TCN- Transmission Company of Nigeria, MD- Managing Director, SO – System Operations,

MO – Market Operations


A-4-2

1

Record of Discussion

Project The Project for Master Plan Study on National Power System Development in the

Federal Republic of Nigeria (The First Field Work)

Venue 4th floor, Conference Room, Federal Ministry of Power, Federal Secretariat

Date 4 September, 2015 (Fri) 10:00-13:00

Attendance FMP, JICA, JICA Team, TCN, WB,

UNIDO, FME, NAPTIN, AFD,

USAID,

Refer to the Attendance List

【Contents】

The 1st JCC was opened by Permanent Secretary’s (PS) remarks. PS emphasized importance of

power sector development and appreciation of assistance from JICA and other donors related to the

power sector.

After JICA Chief Representative presented a key note address to the invitee, presentations by the

team were performed.

Points of discussions made among the parties are followings;

１． Outline of the Project

- Through the presentation, the team emphasized the importance of information sharing and

coordination among the stakeholders for comprehensive power system development in Nigeria.

- The WB agreed collaboration with the captioned project not only the transmission master plan

but also Hydro project and Gas Supply projects.

- PS emphasized that the expected peak demand is approx. 12,500MW and the key authority is

TCN. Furthermore PS suggested that NCC should be in better position related to acknowledge

the peak demand.

２． Power Demand Forecast

(1) Regarding the relation between Power system M/P and GHG

Q What kinds of countermeasures are considered for the reduction of GHG emission and

woods and charcoal consumption in the power system master plan

A Regarding woods and charcoal consumption reduction, the consumption has the strong

relation to deforestation. Most of the developing countries have some limitation to use

woods and charcoal. As substitution energies, the promotion of LPG and coal briquette can

be considered. In our model, the woods and charcoal consumption should be reduced.

(2) Regarding comparison between SimpleE model and FMP power demand model

Q FMP has a power demand forecasting model. Is it possible to compare SimpleE model and

FMP power demand model? And how much cost SimpleE software.

A We can compare the two models completely. The cost of simple E is around 200USD per a


A-4-3

2

【Contents】

set. The software is established by The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan.

(3) Regarding methodology of demand forecasting

Q As demand forecasting approach, there is Top down approach and Bottom up approach.

Which one is SimpleE?

A In Simple E model, the country wise power demand forecasts is implemented under social

economic strategies, therefore, it can be said as Top down approach. Other hand, DISCO

wise power demand forecasts are implemented accumulatively based on DISCO plans.

Therefore, it is bottom up approach. In the case, it is important how to get the data and

information from DISCOs.

(4) Regarding input and output data

Q Explain the input data and output data in Data sheet, Model sheet and Simulation sheet.

A The all data in data sheet are input data, however, the back color values in simulation sheet

are input data and the red color values are forecasted values. The red color values are

calculated internally in the model.

(5) Regarding technical transfer on power demand model

Q How to implement the technical transfer?

A According to my experiences in the similar projects, the technical transfer was implemented

for four days. We were required 4 hours a day from 9:00 AM to 1:00 PM. The all members

had their PCs and the seminar was in hand on style.

３． Power System Development Master Plan

(1) Explanation Summary (detail is referred to the presentation paper)

1) Flow Chart of Power System Development Planning for preparation of Power System

Development Master Plan is shown below, it is very important to coordinate among various

fields such as power demand forecast, primary energy policy, generation and network

development plan, power system analysis, economic efficiency and environmental impact of

power plant candidate sites, financial condition and power development policy.

2) The long term power system development plan is established for the coming 25

years by the least cost analysis method. The power plant candidate sites and

network system are evaluated from economic and financial aspects. The

evaluation results are reflected into the generation and network development

plan. The generation and network development planning is carried out by

using least cost method.

3) In this chart, the generation and network development plan should be drafted in

harmony with many fields, such as demand forecasts, power system analyses,

and selection of power plant candidates, network system, financial condition and

power development policy.


A-4-4

3

【Contents】

4) Therefore, the generation and network development planning is conducted

through close contact and discussions with the counterparts and good

coordination among the related working groups.

5) The scenarios are determined based on the analyses and examinations of the

actual power generation records and the actual demand and supply balance

under the constraints and conditions.

6) Nigeria has to develop ten times capacity as much as existing power plants for

the coming 25 years in order to meet the rapid growing demand. In other

words, it is necessary to develop power plants of as much as 2,200MW every

year.

7) Therefore, all necessary power plants cannot be invested and owned by FGN.

Some of the power plants will need to be developed through other approaches

such as IPP (domestic investors) and BOT (foreign investors), which options has

already taken place in thermal power. Since some projects might not be

developed in time, the mitigation measures of power shortage due to project

delay should be considered in Master Plan. Generally, the new power plant site

should be developed considering additional room of expansion of the plant in

order to cope with the delay of power development and/or the higher than

expected growth of power demand.

8) Fuel price with its hikes are set referring to the Nigerian long-term primary

energy development plans and international market prices of oil, coal and gas.

9) The economic power system operation is simulated and fed back to the economic,

social and environmental consideration study in order to clarify feasibility of

each power plant development. The simulation is repeated, changing

preconditions based on the results of evaluation of preconditions. Thus, the

most economic scenario, best fuel mix of power sources, and long-term power

development pattern are determined through Master Plan study by the

following steps.

A) Verification of the data and information of every power plant

B) Establishment of the power development scenarios

C) Establishment of vision of power generation composition

D) Consideration of interconnection with neighboring countries

E) Evaluation of power plant candidates

F) Review of power development scenarios and vision of power generation

composition

G) Putting order of priority to the candidates of power development


A-4-5

4

【Contents】

H) Establishment of long-term power development plan for the coming 25 years

based on the least cost analysis method

I) Master Plan should be revised every 5 year taking various circumstances into

consideration（This is presenter’s recommendation）

(2) Questionnaires etc. from FMP

Q Master Plan should be considered the implementation of nuclear power plants at Akwa Ibom

state etc.

Master plan should be taken countermeasures of greenhouse gas emission reduction into

consideration.

Nigeria has been exporting power to neighboring countries with interconnection lines.

A Greenhouse gas emission reduction is political matter. Target value such as 25%

reduction compared to 2005 shall be flagged as governmental policy. We shall

reflect the governmental policy in the Master Plan study.


A-4-6

5

【Contents】

(3) Transmission Planning and Analysis

In the presentation, necessity of coordination with TCN’s 20 year Master Plan

supported by WB is emphasized and following case studies were proposed.

i. 2020 : Near term plan

ii. 2030 : Mid term plan

iii. 2040 : Long term plan

by taking WAPP (West African Power Pool) study into consideration.

(4) Environmental and social consideration: Summary of the presentation

1) Explanation of the JICA’s Environmental and Social Consideration Guidelines

It’s applied to all JICA’s projects.

In the development of the master plan, SEA is implemented.

Stakeholder meetings are very important in the JICA’s guidelines.

2) The basics of SEA and overall process

Information gathering at the early stage of the project, such as baseline data

and laws, regulation, and policies (including climate change strategy) in terms

of environmental and social aspects.

IEE level survey for a hydropower pre-F/S.

Multiple scenarios are compared to search for the best alternatives.

Relevant cumulative impacts are investigated.

Scoping of the environmental and social impacts is carried out.

Stakeholder meetings are held as needed.

Attachment: JCC Program, Attendance List


A-4-7

TheProjectfor

MasterP

lanStud

yon

Nationa

lPow

erDevelop

ment

inTh

eFede

ralR

epub

licof

Nigeria

OutlineoftheProject

Sept

embe

r 201

5Te

am L

ead

er:

Mas

atsu

guKo

miy

aD

ep. T

eam

Lea

der

/Pro

ject

Coo

rdin

ator

: Mak

oto

Abe

1

Con

tents

1.Ba

ckgr

ound

of t

he P

roje

ct2.

Proj

ect O

verv

iew

3.Ba

sic p

olic

y in

pro

ject

impl

emen

tatio

n4.

Proj

ect O

rgan

izatio

n5.

Join

t Coo

rdin

atio

n C

omm

ittee

(JC

C)

6.Te

chni

cal W

orki

ng G

roup

(TW

G)

7.A

ssist

ance

from

Sta

keho

lder

s8.

Det

ails

of T

WG

9.O

vera

ll Sch

edul

e

Abb

revi

atio

n2

1.Ba

ckgrou

ndof

theProject

3

Popu

latio

n:170Million

Nationa

lElectrification:

45%~50%

Prov

ision

(Sup

ply)

Needs

(Dem

and)

7,100M

WGeneration

Cap

acity

5,000M

WTran

smission

Cap

acity

Asof

Octob

er,2015

2.ProjectO

verview

4

TargetArea:W

holeNigeria

TargetYear

:2015~

2040

WorkPeriod

:Aug

.2015~Oct.2016

Inpu

t:Collabo

rativ

ework

Power

developm

entp

lann

ing

Power

deman

dforecast

Power

generatio

nplan

ning

(Therm

al)

Power

generatio

nplan

ning

(Hyd

ro)

Prim

aryenergy

analysis

Tran

smission

,Sub

stationplan

ning

/Po

wer

system

analysis

Power

sector

policy

Environm

entaland

socialconsiderations

Econ

omican

dfin

ancialan

alysis

Outpu

t:

Nationa

lPow

erSy

stem

Develop

ment

(for2

5years)

Cap

acity

Develop

ment

Plan

Do

Check

Action


A-4-8

3.Ba

sicpo

licyin

projectimplem

entatio

n

Polic

y 1:

Con

siste

ncy

with

Nig

eria

's de

velo

pmen

t pla

n an

d en

ergy

pol

icy

5

Polic

y 2:

Cor

pora

tion

and

Coo

rdin

atio

n w

ith

othe

r Rel

evan

t Aut

horit

ies

and

dono

rs

Polic

y 3:

Em

phas

is of

Tech

nica

l Tra

nsfe

r

Polic

y 4:

Coo

rdin

atio

n w

ith Tr

ansm

issio

n Sy

stem

Exp

ansio

n Pl

an

4.ProjectO

rgan

ization

6

PRO

JECT

SID

E

MAN

AGEM

ENT

SIDE

JICA

Nig

eria

Offi

ce(J

ICA

Head

quar

ters

)

Proj

ect D

irect

or: P

erm

anen

t Sec

reta

ry(F

MP)

-Con

trol

and

man

agem

ent o

f mat

ters

rela

ted

topr

ojec

t im

plem

enta

tion

-Coo

rdin

atio

n w

ith e

nerg

y se

ctor

stak

ehol

ders

Proj

ect M

anag

er: D

irect

or, E

nerg

y Re

sour

ces D

epar

tmen

t(FM

P)-C

ontr

ol a

nd m

anag

emen

t of m

atte

rs re

late

d to

pro

ject

impl

emen

tatio

n-C

oord

inat

ion

with

JICA

exp

erts

Depu

ty P

roje

ct M

anag

er: M

anag

ing

Dire

ctor

, SO

/MO

(TCN

)-S

uppo

rt to

the

Proj

ect M

anag

er-C

oord

inat

ion

with

JICA

exp

erts

esp

ecia

lly in

syst

em p

lann

ing

FMP:

Fed

eral

Min

istry

of P

ower

, TCN

: Tra

nsm

issio

n Co

mpa

ny o

f Nig

eria

SO: S

yste

m O

pera

tion,

MO

: Mar

ket O

pera

tion

JCC:

Join

t Coo

rdin

atio

n Co

mm

ittee

, TW

G: T

echn

ical

Wor

king

Gro

up

5.JointC

oordinationCom

mittee(JCC) 7

6.TechnicalW

orking

Group

(TWG)

8

Org

aniz

atio

n of

TW

GPr

ojec

t Man

ager

Dire

ctor

, Ene

rgy

Reso

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FMP)

orDe

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ject

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ager

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rect

or, S

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CN)

Secr

etar

y of

the

TWG

Tech

nica

l Cou

nter

part

s fro

m T

CN

JICA

expe

rts

Tech

nica

l Cou

nter

part

s fro

m F

MP

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vant

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aniz

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ns

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n Ro

les o

f TW

G-

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pdat

e m

embe

rs o

n th

e Pr

ojec

t pro

gres

s-

To sh

are

the

chal

leng

es in

the

Proj

ect

-To

har

mon

ize

the

proj

ect a

ctiv

ities

with

oth

er re

leva

nt a

genc

ies

-To

Col

labo

rate

and

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rdin

ate

with

JICA

exp

erts

to fo

rmul

ate

Mas

ter P

lan

FMP:

Fed

eral

Min

istry

of P

ower

, TCN

: Tra

nsm

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mpa

ny o

f Nig

eria

PRS:

Pla

nnin

g, R

esea

rch

and

Stat

istic

s, T

WG:

Tec

hnic

al W

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ng G

roup

SO: S

yste

m O

pera

tion,

MO

: Mar

ket O

pera

tion


A-4-9

7.Assistancefrom

Stakeholde

rs

9

TCN

Tran

smis

sion

Com

pany

of N

iger

ia(P

ower

Sys

tem

Mas

ter P

lan)

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strib

utio

n Co

mpa

nies

(Em

bedd

ed G

ener

atio

n)

Genc

osGe

nera

tion

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pani

es(IP

P)RE

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ral E

lect

rific

atio

n Ag

ency

(Fac

ilita

tion

of E

lect

rific

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n Ra

te)

NDP

HCN

iger

Del

ta P

ower

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ding

Com

pany

(Impl

emen

tatio

n of

NIP

P)

NBE

T(N

iger

ia B

ulk

Elec

tric

ity T

radi

ng)

(Pow

er T

radi

ng)

PTFP

: Pre

side

ntia

l Tas

k Fo

rce

on P

ower

NER

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atio

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A-4-10

1

Con

tent

s

1.O

verv

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son

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man

dfo

reca

sts(

page

2)

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etho

dolo

gies

ofP

ower

dem

and

mod

el(p

age

6)

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int

wor

ksbe

twee

nC

/Pan

dSt

udy

team

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e12

)

Pow

er D

eman

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sts

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TER

PLAN

STU

DY

ON

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ION

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AL R

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OF

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ERIA

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embe

r 2

015

2

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sum

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nsum

ptio

npe

rcap

itais

200

kWh

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11,i

tisl

ower

than

othe

rcou

ntiri

es.

Asot

herc

ount

ries,

ther

ear

eGh

ana

344

kWh,

Viet

nam

1,08

0kW

hin

2011

.

3

(2)

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requ

ired

info

rmat

ion

to P

ower

dem

and

fore

cast

s

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rtan

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form

atio

nFo

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g

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men

ts

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15to

204

0Th

e w

hole

cou

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tor

and

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ise

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dem

and

2015

to

2040

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who

le c

ount

ry a

nd D

ISCO

wis

e

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erat

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2015

to

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n pr

oduc

ers

and

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pro

duce

rs (

gene

rato

rs fo

r In

depe

nden

t gr

id)

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smis

sion

& D

istr

ibut

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loss

2015

to

2040

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who

le c

ount

ry a

nd D

ISCO

wis

e

Fuel

sou

rce

cons

umpt

ion

2015

to

2040

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prod

ucts

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ural

gas

and

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l

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ary

ener

gy s

uppl

y20

15 t

o 20

40Th

eab

ove

+ I

mpo

rt o

il +

Hyd

ro +

Bio

+ R

enew

able

GD

P pe

r ca

pita

2015

to

2040

Nig

eria

, G

hana

, Tan

zani

a,

Sout

h-Af

rica

Saud

i-Ara

bia,

Mal

aysi

a, C

hina

, Jap

an

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ptio

n pe

r ca

pita

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to

2040

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eria

, G

hana

, Tan

zani

a,

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h-Af

rica

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i-Ara

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pow

er d

eman

d fo

reca

sts

are

requ

ired

whe

n es

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ishi

ng P

ower

sy

stem

mas

ter

plan

. E

spec

ially

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follo

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re im

port

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4

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iste

ncy

to t

he o

ther

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ateg

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and

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s

Stra

tegy

and

pla

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lds

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y ite

ms

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iona

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eria

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ion

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2020

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omic

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elop

men

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rate

gyN

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cono

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look

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ifica

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ss r

educ

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% ?

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timat

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grid

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lan

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ter

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201

4 By

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lan

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nerg

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d En

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plan

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cha

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sum

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timat

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keep

ing

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cons

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amon

g th

e re

late

d st

rate

gies

and

pla

ns in

N

iger

ia, T

he fol

low

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are

stu

died

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5

(4)

Revi

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f th

e Ex

istin

g Po

wer

Dem

and

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cast

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ing

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man

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ms

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yite

ms

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iona

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dDe

man

dSt

udy

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ished

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cast

edPo

wer

dem

and

Met

hodo

logy

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April

2009

2010

to20

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tent

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dby

natio

nal&

regi

onSo

cial

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onom

icsc

enar

ioap

proa

ch

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ysis

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iger

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iona

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ctric

ityDe

man

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reca

st

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ished

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cast

edPo

wer

dem

and

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hodo

logy

Mr.

Ezen

naya

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hers

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siden

tial,

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stry

and

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mer

cial

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naly

sis

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look

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ished

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cast

edPo

wer

dem

and

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logy

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rnat

iona

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cyFo

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st20

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gyde

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enew

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gyso

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f po

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dem

and

fore

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mod

el

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latio

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heet

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wth

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eet:

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pow

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pow

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3

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pow

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g

9

Sour

ce :

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ual v

alue

s ar

e es

timat

ed b

y th

e St

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team

and

, fu

ture

val

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are

tent

ativ

efo

reca

sted

by

the

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y te

am

10

(5)

Pow

er c

ompa

rison

bet

wee

n N

iger

ia a

nd S

elec

ted

coun

trie

s

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Nige

ria12

017

318

328

341

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365

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194

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nzan

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ce :

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ld B

ank

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abas

e , f

utur

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lues

of N

iger

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re t

enta

tive

fore

cast

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e St

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pend

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to

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6,435

7,061

7,419

Appe

ndix

1 :

Po

wer

dem

and

fore

cast

item

s (

tent

ativ

e)

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Capa

city

Peak

*1.2

GW10

1929

4361

83


A-4-14

17

Appe

ndix

2 :

In

dica

tors

of

Pow

er d

eman

d (t

enta

tive)

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Socia

l eco

nomi

c Po

pulat

ion10

00 p

erson

s18

3,523

210,1

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data

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(200

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ice U

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n US

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nal G

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Electr

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ergy D

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r dem

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32

Powe

r dem

and

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inal G

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per U

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Powe

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r dem

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171.1

01

Power

Generation

Developm

entP

lan

K.N

ISHI

WAK

I

MasterP

lanFlow

Chart

1)Verificationof

thedataandinform

ation

ofeverypo

wer

plant

Actu

alre

cord

sofp

ower

gene

ratio

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stem

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atio

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ned

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ighb

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ies,

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ition

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ento

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erpl

ants

and

soon

.


A-4-15

2)Establish

mento

fthe

power

developm

ent

scen

arios

Dem

and

fore

cast

scen

ario

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gh,B

ase,

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itatio

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ater

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mity

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pply

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ighb

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onne

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elpr

ice

hike

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trai

ntan

dco

nditi

onof

IPP

and

BOT

plan

tope

ratio

n

3)Establish

mento

fvision

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wer

gene

ratio

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sition

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mos

teco

nom

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mpo

sitio

nis

soug

htby

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ging

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atio

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ario

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peso

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cle

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mal

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ble

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rious

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ach

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erso

urce

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The

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erge

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tion

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posit

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the

leas

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rmin

edby

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nsiderationof

intercon

nectionwith

neighb

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tries

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erco

nnec

tion

with

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hbor

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trie

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rim

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enta

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ngth

est

udy

onin

terc

onne

ctio

npl

anam

ong

WAP

Pco

untr

iesi

nto

acco

unt.

5)Evaluatio

nof

power

plantcandidates

Sele

ctio

nof

sites

The

info

rmat

ion

fore

cono

mic

eval

uatio

nis

colle

cted

and

puti

nor

der,

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aslo

catio

n,av

aila

ble

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city

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its(k

W),

type

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uel,

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erio

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uctio

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uelc

osta

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on.

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omic

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uatio

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omic

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ied

outb

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mpa

ring

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wer

gene

ratio

nof

each

deve

lopm

ents

ite.


A-4-16

6)Review

ofpo

wer

developm

entscenario

sand

visio

nof

power

gene

ratio

ncompo

sition

•The

pow

erde

velo

pmen

tsce

nario

sand

visio

nof

pow

erge

nera

tion

com

posit

ion

are

revi

ewed

.

7)Pu

ttingordero

fprio

rityto

thecand

idates

ofpo

wer

developm

ent

•Th

eca

ndid

ates

are

prio

ritize

dco

nsid

erin

gth

eec

onom

icef

ficie

ncy,

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rsifi

catio

nan

dse

curit

yof

prim

ary

ener

gies

,con

ditio

nsof

exist

ing

pow

erpl

ants

and

inte

rcon

nect

ion

with

neig

hbor

ing

coun

trie

s.

8)Establish

mento

flon

gterm

power

developm

entp

lanforthe

coming25

years

•The

leas

tcos

tpow

erde

velo

pmen

tpla

nfo

rthe

com

ing

25ye

arsi

sde

term

ined

toac

hiev

eth

eap

prop

riate

pow

erso

urce

com

posit

ion

orbe

stfu

elm

ixin

the

year

of20

40.

9)MasterP

lanshou

ldbe

revisedevery5year

taking

vario

uscircum

stancesinto

consideration

Achi

evem

entr

atio

ofpo

wer

deve

lopm

ents

hall

bede

laye

d.Ci

rcum

stan

cesa

lterc

ases

such

asfu

elpr

ice,

new

deve

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ent

proc

edur

esan

dch

ange

ofec

onom

icfa

bric

etc.

Budg

etan

dbu

sines

ssitu

atio

n


A-4-17

Thankyou,seeyouagain.

MMas

ter P

lan S

tudy

on

the

Nat

iona

l Pow

er S

yste

m

Dev

elopm

ent

Tran

smiss

ion

Plan

ning

and

Ana

lysis

Sudi

pto

Bhow

mik

2015

Con

fiden

tial

1.Pr

ojec

t Mob

iliza

tion

and

Dat

a co

llect

ion

2.Es

tabl

ishm

ent o

f Bas

e C

ase

Dat

a Se

ts fro

m T

CN

and

Oso

gbo

3.D

ata

clean

upan

d ve

rifica

tion

for

clean

bas

e ca

se

4.C

oord

inat

ion

with

TC

N tr

ansm

issio

n m

aste

r pl

an fr

om W

orld

Ban

k

5.C

oord

inat

ion

with

Gen

erat

ion,

Loa

d fo

reca

st an

d Su

bsta

tion

grou

p

2

SSche

dule

of T

rans

miss

ion

plan

ning

Con

fiden

tial

1.In

puts

from

NER

C a

nd N

BET

rega

rdin

g pr

ojec

t com

plet

ion

prob

abili

ty

2.Pr

elim

inar

y pr

esen

tatio

n of

Dat

a co

llect

ion

3.C

reat

ion

of 3

futu

re c

ase

studi

es

i.20

20 :

Nea

r te

rm p

lan

ii.20

30 :

Mid

term

plan

iii.

2040

: Lo

ng te

rm p

lan

4.In

clusio

n of

WAP

P pl

ans

3

SSche

dule

of T

rans

miss

ion

plan

ning


A-4-18

Con

fiden

tial

Dev

elopm

ent o

f the

Tra

nsm

issio

n Sy

stem

for

25 y

ears

tim

eline

in o

rder

tosu

ppor

t the

“M

aste

r pl

an s

tudy

” be

ing

deve

lope

d by

JIC

A

The

prim

ary

focu

s is

Gen

erat

ion

adeq

uacy

Coo

rdin

ate

with

the

plan

ope

ratio

n ba

sed

TCN

’s 20

yea

r m

aste

r pl

an (W

orld

Bank

).

All a

naly

sis w

ill b

e ca

rried

out u

sing

PSS®

E

Any

addi

tiona

l dev

elopm

enta

l nee

d fo

r tra

nsm

issio

n up

grad

es w

ill ta

ke in

toco

nsid

erat

ion

feas

ibili

ty a

nd re

liabi

lity

4

OObj

ectiv

e

Con

fiden

tial

11.TC

N: B

ulk

of s

imul

atio

n da

ta in

cludi

ng T

rans

miss

ion

upgr

ade

queu

es ,

their

pro

babi

lity

and

prio

rity

2.N

ERC

: Rele

vant

Gen

erat

ion

upgr

ades

3.N

BET

:Rele

vant

Gen

erat

ion

upgr

ades

4.W

orld

Ban

k: D

ata

verif

icatio

n an

d co

ordi

natio

n

5.N

DPH

C: T

rans

miss

ion

upgr

ades

5

Relev

ant O

rgan

izat

ions

Con

fiden

tial

–Po

wer

Flow

dat

a fo

r pr

esen

t and

futu

re y

ear

in P

SS/E

form

at

–D

etailed

gen

erat

or d

ata

–D

etailed

dat

a re

gard

ing

volta

ge c

ontro

l dev

ices

and

sche

dule

–D

efin

ition

and

lim

its o

f the

pow

er tr

ansm

issio

n in

terfa

ces.

–C

ontin

genc

ies: d

efin

ition

and

th

eir c

orre

spon

ding

lim

its

–Re

ports

on

histo

rically

obs

erve

d Tr

ansm

issio

n an

d Vo

ltage

pro

blem

s an

d

their

asso

ciate

d da

ta

6

DDat

a Re

ques

t

Con

fiden

tial

–Re

cent

/Plann

ed tr

ansm

issio

n or

gen

erat

ion

upgr

ades

–Re

strict

ions

on

sites

for

insta

llatio

n or

tran

smiss

ion

upgr

ades

–Sy

stem

load

fore

casts

–Sy

stem

diagr

ams

(exi

sting

)

–In

form

atio

n on

tran

smiss

ion

upgr

ades

pro

babi

lity

–C

urre

nt G

rid c

odes

and

ope

ratin

g pr

oced

ures

, for

bot

h na

tiona

l and

regi

onal s

yste

ms.

7

DDat

a Re

ques

t 2


A-4-19

1

2

1.

Pri

nci

ple

s o

f JI

CA

’s E

nvi

ron

me

nta

l a

nd

So

cia

lG

uid

eli

ne

s

2.

Wh

at

is S

tra

teg

ic E

nvi

ron

me

nta

l A

sse

ssm

en

t(S

EA

) ?

3.

Ho

w t

o i

nte

gra

te E

nvi

ron

me

nta

l a

nd

So

cia

lC

on

sid

era

tio

n (

ES

C)

into

th

e P

lan

4.

Sch

ed

ule

of

the

stu

dy:

SE

A a

nd

IE

E

5.

Str

ate

gy

for

ES

C

6.

JIC

A’s

Ch

eck

list

fo

r E

SC

3

1.

A w

ide

rang

e of

impa

cts

mus

t be

add

ress

ed.

2.

Mea

sure

s fo

r en

viro

nmen

tal a

nd s

ocia

l con

side

ratio

ns m

ust

beim

plem

ente

d fr

om a

n ea

rly

stag

e to

a m

onito

ring

sta

ge.

3.

JIC

A is

res

pons

ible

for

acc

ount

abili

ty w

hen

impl

emen

ting

coop

erat

ion

proj

ects

.4

.JI

CA

ask

s st

akeh

olde

rs f

or t

heir

par

ticip

atio

n.5

.JI

CA

dis

clos

es in

form

atio

n.6

.JI

CA

enh

ance

s or

gani

zatio

nal c

apac

ity.

7.

JIC

A m

akes

ser

ious

att

empt

s at

pro

mpt

ness

.

B Bas

ic P

rinc

iple

s in

the

Gui

delin

es

The

Mas

ter

Pla

n ap

plie

s:

SEA

(Str

ateg

ic E

nviro

nmen

tal A

sses

smen

t)IE

E (In

itial

Env

ironm

enta

l Exa

min

atio

n) f

or p

re-F

/S (H

ydro

pow

er)

Stak

ehol

der

mee

tings

4

Ana

lytic

al a

nd p

artic

ipat

ory

appr

oach

that

aim

s to

inte

grat

e en

viro

nmen

tal c

onsi

dera

tions

into

pol

icie

s, p

lans

, and

pr

ogra

ms,

and

eva

luat

e th

e in

ter

linka

ges

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eco

nom

ic a

nd

soci

al c

onsi

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tions

.”O

ECD

/DAC

, “Ap

plyi

ng S

trat

egic

Env

ironm

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essm

ent:

good

pra

ctic

e gu

idan

ce fo

r dev

elop

men

t co

oper

atio

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ood

qual

ity

SEA

pro

cess

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form

s pl

anne

rs, d

ecis

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mak

ers

and

affe

cted

pub

lic o

n th

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stai

nabi

lity

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trat

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isio

ns

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cilit

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sure

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moc

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isio

n m

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s

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hanc

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isio

ns

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ads

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cost

-and

tim

e-ef

fect

ive

EIA

at

the

proj

ect

leve

lIA

IA, S

EA P

erfo

rman

ce C

riter

ia (2

002)


A-4-20

5

PPro

ject

For

mat

ion

App

rais

al b

y JI

CA

G

/A, L

/A

Det

aile

d D

esig

n

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stru

ctio

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Ope

rati

on

Impl

emen

tatio

n of

Env

iron

men

tal M

anag

emen

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lan

and

Mon

itori

ng

Miti

gatio

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easu

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n in

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er

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Res

ettle

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tim

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Feas

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tudy

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ter

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iron

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sses

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itial

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xam

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mpa

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nvir

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lan)

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201

52

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rmat

ion

gath

erin

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A fo

r th

e M

aste

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lan

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pre-

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7

Co

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Ove

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ater

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(1)

Impa

cts

duri

ng C

onst

ruct

ion

(2) M

onito

ring

(2)

Impa

cts

on G

loba

l Env

ironm

enta

l Iss

ues

(e.g

.gl

obal

war

min

g)


A-4-21

Yu

rik

o K

ud

o

Yr-

ku

do

@in

tl.y

ach

iyo

-en

g.c

o.j

p

9

WE

WO

ULD

AP

PR

EC

IATE

YO

UR

C

OO

PE

RA

TIO

N

THA

NK

YO

U!


A-4-22

4th February 2016 1ST TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP

( PROGRESS WORKSHOP )


A-4-23

TIME TABLE FOR 1ST TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP (PROGRESS WORKSHOP) ON THE PROJECT FOR MASTER PLAN STUDY ON

NATIONAL POWER SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA

VENUE: BOARD ROOM (ROOM 510), 5TH FLOOR, CORPORATE HEADQUARTERS, TRANSMISSION COMPANY OF NIGERIA

PLACE: PLOT 441, ZAMBEZI CRESCENT, MAITAMA, ABUJA DATE: 4th FEBRUARY, 2016.

Time Event/Activity Action by 10:00-10:10 Opening Remarks

from the Federal Ministry of Power Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Power, Works and Housing


10:20-10:30 Key note address Director, EnergyResources andDevelopment

10:30-10:45 Technical Working Group (TWG) Progress Workshop

Mr. Makoto Abe

10:45-11:00 TWG Workshop on Power Demand Forecasts

Mr. Tomoyuki Inoue

11:00-11:15 Generation Expansion Plan Mr. Kyoji Fujii

11:15-11:30 Environmental and Social Considerations (ESC)

Ms. Yuriko Kudo

11:30-12:00 Opinion exchange regarding TWG General discussion

TWG members All

12:00-12:10 Closing remarks Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Power, Works and Housing

Note: FMP- Federal Ministry of Power, PS- Permanent Secretary, ERD- Energy Resources and Development


A-4-24


A-4-25


A-4-26


A-4-27


A-4-28


A-4-29


A-4-30

TEC

HN

ICA

LW

OR

KIN

GG

RO

UP

(TW

G)

PR

OG

RE

SSW

OR

KSH

OP

4th

Febr

uary

201

6JI

CA

Stu

dy te

am

THE

PR

OJE

CT

FOR

MA

STE

R P

LAN

STU

DY

ON

NA

TIO

NA

L PO

WE

R D

EV

ELO

PME

NT

IN

THE

FE

DE

RA

L R

EPU

BLI

C O

F N

IGE

RIA

CO

NTE

NTS

1.JC

C a

nd T

WG

2.O

bjec

tives

of T

WG

3.St

ruct

ure

of T

WG

4.R

elat

ive

and

Flow

5.Ta

sks

of T

WG

(Gen

eral

)6.

Task

s in

TW

G (G

roup

)-17.

Task

s in

TW

G (G

roup

)-28.

Tent

ativ

e Sc

hedu

le9.

Act

ual a

nd A

ssum

ptio

n10

.Is

sues

to b

e m

easu

red

by T

WG

1

1.R

OLE

SO

FJC

CA

ND

TWG

Join

t Coo

rdin

atio

n C

omm

ittee

2

Org

aniz

atio

n of

TW

GPr

ojec

t Man

ager

Dire

ctor

, Ene

rgy

Reso

urce

s Dep

artm

ent(

FMP)

orDe

puty

Pro

ject

Man

ager

Man

agin

g Di

rect

or, S

O/M

O(T

CN)

Secr

etar

y of

the

TWG

Tech

nica

l Cou

nter

part

s fro

m T

CN

JICA

expe

rts

Tech

nica

l Cou

nter

part

s fro

m F

MP

Rele

vant

Org

aniz

atio

ns

Mai

n Ro

les o

f TW

G-

To u

pdat

e m

embe

rs o

n th

e Pr

ojec

t pro

gres

s-

To sh

are

the

chal

leng

es in

the

Proj

ect

-To

har

mon

ize

the

proj

ect a

ctiv

ities

with

oth

er re

leva

nt a

genc

ies

-To

Col

labo

rate

and

Coo

rdin

ate

with

JICA

exp

erts

to fo

rmul

ate

Mas

ter P

lan

FMP:

Fed

eral

Min

istry

of P

ower

, TCN

: Tra

nsm

issio

n Co

mpa

ny o

f Nig

eria

PRS:

Pla

nnin

g, R

esea

rch

and

Stat

istic

s, T

WG:

Tec

hnic

al W

orki

ng G

roup

SO: S

yste

m O

pera

tion,

MO

: Mar

ket O

pera

tion

Tech

nica

l Wor

king

Gro

up

Pla

nnin

g C

reat

orD

ecis

ion

Mak

er

2.O

BJE

CTI

VE

SO

FTW

GA

ND

JCC

Form

ulat

ion

of N

atio

nal

Pow

er D

evel

opm

ent P

lan(

JIC

A+T

WG

)Im

plem

enta

tion

Rai

sing

Cha

lleng

es, D

iffic

ultie

s in

Gro

ups(

TWG

)C

ount

erm

easu

res(

TWG

)D

ecis

ion

mad

e(JC

C)

Upd

ate

Mas

ter

Plan

by

TWG

(TW

G)

3

Long

-ter

m

Mas

ter

Plan

(fo

r 25

year

s)

Upd

ated

M

aste

r Pl

an(b

y 5y

ears

)R

evie

w

Plan

Do

Che

ck

Act

ion

P D C A PR

epea

t PD

CA

cycl

e by

TW

G


A-4-31

3.ST

RU

CTU

RE

OF

TWG

4

Deta

ilsof

Tec

hnic

al W

orki

ng G

roup

Gro

up L

eade

r (Ch

air P

erso

n)-P

ower

Dev

elop

men

t Pla

nnin

gG

roup

(Tec

hnic

al) L

eade

r-Po

wer

Dev

elop

men

t Pla

nnin

g

Gro

up S

ecre

tary

-Pow

er D

evel

opm

ent P

lann

ing

Engr

. E.O

Aja

yi, D

irect

or (E

RD),

FMP

Mr.

Mas

atsu

gu K

omiy

a, JI

CA T

eam

Mr.

Aust

in O

. Abe

gund

e,DD

(P) F

MP

Mr.

Mak

oto

Abe,

JICA

Tea

mG

roup

Coo

rdin

ator

Dr. S

unda

y O

wol

obi,

ACE

(ERD

) FM

P

Grou

p (T

echn

ical

) Coo

rdin

ator

-Pow

er D

evel

opm

ent P

lann

ing

Tran

smis

sion

/Sub

stat

ion

plan

ning

/Pow

er sy

stem

ana

lysi

sPo

wer

Dem

and

Fore

cast

Pow

er g

ener

atio

n pl

anni

ng(T

herm

al p

ower

dev

elop

men

t)Po

wer

sect

or p

olic

y

Prim

ary

ener

gy a

naly

sis

Pow

er g

ener

atio

n pl

anni

ng(H

ydro

pow

er d

evel

opm

ent)

Econ

omic

and

fina

ncia

l ana

lysi

sEn

viro

nmen

tal a

nd so

cial

co

nsid

erat

ions

[Tec

hnic

al C

ount

erpa

rts]

JICA

Team

:Mr.

Kyoj

i Fuj

iiJIC

A Te

am:M

r. Ta

kesh

i Har

aFM

P:E

ngr.

Euge

ne E

jere

gbe

FMP

:Eng

r. An

ikpe

Ken

echu

kwu

Josi

ahTC

N:E

ngr.

Arib

aba

P. A

. (Pl

anni

ng)

TCN

:Eng

r. Em

eka

Chia

tula

TCN

:Eng

r. Er

ic H

ampa

shi (

NCC

)TC

N:E

ngr.

Ola

yanj

u J.

O. (

MO

)

[Tec

hnic

al C

ount

erpa

rts]

JICA

Team

:Mr.

Tom

oyuk

i Ino

ueFM

P:D

r. Su

nday

Ow

olab

i (ER

D)TC

N:E

ngr.

Isho

la B

. A. (

NCC

)TC

N:E

ngr.

Ikel

i H. N

. (Pl

anni

ng)

TCN

:Eng

r. Ch

arle

s Nna

jide

(NCC

)TC

N:E

ngr.

Obi

shai

F. N

. (M

O)

[Tec

hnic

al C

ount

erpa

rts]

JICA

Team

:Mr.

Sudi

pto

Bhow

mik

JICA

Team

:Mr.

Kazu

aki K

ondo

FMP

:Eng

r. Ph

ilip

Okp

anef

e (T

SD)

TCN

:Eng

r. Ab

ba-A

liyu

(Pla

nnin

g)TC

N:E

ngr.

A. N

azif

(Pla

nnin

g)TC

N:E

ngr.

E. C

. Um

oh (N

CC)

[Tec

hnic

al C

ount

erpa

rts]

JICA

Team

:Ms.

Izum

i Tak

aiFM

P:M

r. A.

A. A

yode

le (T

SD)

FMP

:Eng

r. Ab

el P

hilip

ele

(RRD

)EC

N:E

ngr.

J. S.

Ola

yand

eEC

N:M

r. Su

lu B

. F. I

brah

imTC

N:A

num

aka,

Cor

pora

te P

lan.

TCN

:Pau

l Ilo

ndu,

Cor

pora

te P

lan.

[Tec

hnic

al C

ount

erpa

rts]

JICA

Team

:Mr.

Hide

ki O

take

FMP

:Eng

r. En

eh K

ings

ley

(ERD

) EC

N:E

ngr.

J. S.

Ola

yand

eEC

N:M

r. Su

lu B

. F. I

brah

imTC

N:E

ngr.

Arib

aba

P. A

. (Pl

anni

ng)

TCN

:Eng

r. Em

eka

Chia

tula

TCN

:Eng

r. Er

ic H

ampa

shi (

NCC

)TC

N:E

ngr.

Ola

yanj

u J.

O. (

MO

)

[Tec

hnic

al C

ount

erpa

rts]

JICA

Team

:Mr.

Kaor

u N

ishi

wak

iFM

P:E

ngr.

O.T

, Ow

oeye

(ERD

)TC

N:E

ngr.A

ribab

a P.

A. (

Plan

ning

)TC

N:E

ngr.

Emek

a Ch

iatu

laTC

N:E

ngr.

Eric

Ham

pash

i (N

CC)

TCN

:Eng

r. O

laya

nju

J. O

. (M

O)

[Tec

hnic

al C

ount

erpa

rts]

JICA

Team

:Mr.

Yusu

ke H

arad

aFM

P:M

r. S.

A. D

ashi

(P)

FMP

:Eng

r. Be

n Ay

ange

aor (

ERD)

TCN

:Eng

r. Ab

olom

ope

R. O

. (AC

)TC

N:E

ngr.

Ajib

ade

M. A

. (Pl

anni

ng)

TCN

:Eng

r. O

gbu

B. C

. (M

O)

[Tec

hnic

al C

ount

erpa

rts]

JICA

Team

:Ms.

Yur

iko

Kudo

FMP

:Eng

r. To

ny U

men

yen

(TSD

)FM

P:E

ngr.

Ekan

em E

ffion

g (D

SD)

TCN

:Olis

a M

. Oko

li (H

SE)

TCN

:Ifeo

ma

Nw

achu

kwu

(HSE

)

[Ass

ista

nce

nece

ssar

y fr

om]

NDP

HC, N

ERC,

TCN

-SO

, NBE

T, N

NPC

, Gen

cos,

ISAP

[Ass

ista

nce

nece

ssar

y fr

om]

TCN

-SO

, TCN

-MO

, Gen

cos,

Disc

os,

NER

C, R

EA, I

SAP

[Ass

ista

nce

nece

ssar

y fr

om]

NDP

HC, T

CN-S

O, P

TFP

[Ass

ista

nce

nece

ssar

y fr

om]

ECN

, NER

C, N

BET,

BPE

, NO

TAP,

PTF

P, IC

RC

[Ass

ista

nce

nece

ssar

y fr

om]

ECN

, NN

PC, N

GC, N

AEC,

FM

ARD,

FM

MSD

, FM

W, N

IMET

[Ass

ista

nce

nece

ssar

y fr

om]

FMW

, TCN

-SO

, NER

C, N

BET,

ISAP

[Ass

ista

nce

nece

ssar

y fr

om]

NPC

-1, N

ERC,

NBE

T, N

GC, T

CN-T

SP, N

BS,

NPC

-2, F

MF,

CBN

[Ass

ista

nce

nece

ssar

y fr

om]

FME,

NES

RA, N

PC-2

, TCN

4.R

ELA

TIV

EA

ND

FLO

W

5

Master Plan on National Power System Development

WASP

Power Demand Forecast

Power SectorPolicy

Economic and financial analysis

Hydro Power Development

Thermal Power Development

Transmission planningPower system analysisSubstation Planning

Simple E

Generation Expansion Planning (Optimum Power Development)

Transmission and Substation Facility Planning

Power Tariff

Peak Demand, kWh

Energy Source

Construction Cost

FeedbackFeedback

Environmental and social

considerations

Construction Cost

PSS/E

5.TA

SKS

OF

TWG

(GE

NE

RA

L)

6

Task

JIC

A T

eam

Nig

eria

n C

ount

erpa

rts

Gen

eral

•A

rran

gem

entw

ith r

elat

ed o

rgan

izat

ions

Res

pons

ibili

ty•

Dat

a co

llect

ion

Com

bine

dC

olle

ctin

g

•D

ata

anal

ysis

Ana

lysi

sC

onfir

mat

ion

•B

asic

data

for M

aste

r Pl

anD

ata-

base

Con

firm

atio

n

•Si

mul

atio

nM

etho

dolo

gyTe

chni

cal t

rans

fer

•Fo

rmul

atio

n of

Mas

ter

Plan

Form

ulat

ion

Col

labo

ratio

n

•M

anua

lfor

upd

ate

Mas

ter

Plan

Tobe

mad

eU

tiliz

atio

n

•R

evie

w a

nd U

pdat

e M

aste

r Pl

anC

ontin

ued

6.TA

SKS

INTW

G (G

RO

UP)

-1

7

Task

JIC

A T

eam

Nig

eria

n Te

chni

cal

Cou

nter

part

sPo

wer

Dem

and

Fore

cast

•R

evie

w o

f met

hod

for

pow

er d

eman

d fo

reca

stR

evie

w

•Fo

rmul

atio

n of

pow

er d

eman

d fo

reca

stM

etho

dolo

gy,

Form

ulat

ion

Form

ulat

ion,

Rev

iew

,Upd

ate

Prim

ary

ener

gy

•E

nerg

y su

pply

,dem

and

and

orga

niza

tions

Rev

iew

Rev

iew

•E

nerg

y ou

tlook

Stud

ySt

udy

Eco

nom

ic a

nd fi

nanc

ial a

naly

sis

•So

cial

and

Fin

anci

al s

tatu

sR

evie

w

•In

vest

men

t Pla

nSt

udy,

Form

ulat

ion

Form

ulat

ion,

Rev

iew

, Upd

ate


A-4-32

7.TA

SKS

INTW

G(G

RO

UP)

-2

8

Task

JIC

A T

eam

Nig

eria

n Te

chni

cal

Cou

nter

part

sPo

wer

gen

erat

ion

Plan

ning

•A

naly

sis

of e

xist

ing,

pla

nned

exp

ansi

on p

lan

for

pow

er p

lant

sR

evie

w

•St

udy

of o

ptim

izat

ion

of p

ower

dev

elop

men

t pl

anSi

mul

atio

nR

evie

w,U

pdat

e

Pow

er s

yste

m(T

rans

mis

sion

, Sub

stat

ions

)•

Ana

lysi

s of

exi

stin

g, p

lann

ed e

xpan

sion

pla

n fo

r po

wer

sys

tem

Rev

iew

•Si

mul

atio

nPS

S/E

Mod

elR

evie

w,U

pdat

e

Env

iron

men

tal a

nd S

ocia

l Con

side

ratio

ns

•R

egul

atio

n fr

amew

ork

Rev

iew

•Im

plem

enta

tion

of S

EA

Assi

stan

ceIm

plem

enta

tion

Pow

er S

ecto

r Po

licy

•O

rgan

izat

iona

l and

lega

l fra

mew

ork,

legi

slat

ion,

po

wer

tari

ff an

d ot

her

Pow

er S

ecto

r po

licy

Rev

iew

, R

ecom

men

datio

n

8.TE

NTA

TIV

ESC

HE

DU

LE

9

1W2W

3W4W

1W2W

3W4W

1W2W

3W4W

1W2W

3W4W

1W2W

3W4W

1W2W

3W4W

1W2W

3W4W

1W2W

3W4W

1W2W

3W4W

1W2W

3W4W

Wor

k in

Nig

eria

Dat

a so

rting

and

ana

lysis

Powe

r dem

and

mod

elR

evie

w of

the

mod

elFi

naliz

e po

wer d

eman

d fo

reca

stTC

NR

egio

nal d

eman

d su

rvey

Dat

a so

rting

and

ana

lysis

Dis

cuss

ion

on p

re-c

ondi

tion

and

scea

rio s

ettin

gPr

epar

atio

n of

WAS

P m

odel

WAS

P Si

mul

atio

nD

raft

gene

ratio

n ex

pans

ion

plan

TCN

Com

pila

tion

of g

ener

atio

nD

ata

sorti

ng a

nd a

nalys

isBa

se d

ata

with

PSS

/E m

odel

PSS/

E si

mul

atio

n an

d an

alys

isD

raft

trans

mis

sion

exp

ansi

on p

lan

TCN

Com

pila

tion

of tr

ansm

issi

onFi

nanc

ial n

ad E

cono

mic

Ana

lysis

Adju

stm

ent o

f Fin

anci

al M

odel

/ sim

ulat

ion

Form

ulat

ion

of in

vest

men

t pla

nD

raft

Inve

stm

ent P

lan

TCN

Met

hodo

logy

, Exp

ansi

on P

lan

SEA

proc

ess

Key

Stak

ehol

ders

Mee

ting

Scop

ing

Det

aile

d SE

APr

epar

atio

nSt

akeh

olde

r con

sulta

tion

Wor

ksho

pJC

C/S

emin

ar/W

orks

hop

Doc

umen

tatio

n*S

ched

ule

of T

CN

(Pow

er S

yste

m M

aste

r Pla

n) w

ill be

revis

ed.

*Sch

edul

e is

sub

ject

to c

hang

e

2016

As

of F

ebru

ary

1, 2

016

Tent

ativ

e Sc

hedu

le fo

r For

mul

atio

n of

Mas

ter P

lan

Stud

y on

Nat

iona

l Pow

er S

yste

m D

evel

opm

ent i

n th

e Fe

dera

l Rep

ublic

of N

iger

ia

TWG

Inte

rimR

epor

t

Augu

st

Powe

r Dem

and

Fore

cast

Gen

erat

ion

Plan

ning

Tran

smis

sion

Syst

emPl

i

Fina

ncia

l and

Econ

omic

Ana

ylsis

/In

vest

men

t Pla

n

Stak

ehol

ders

work

shop

Febr

uary

Mar

chAp

rilM

ayJu

ne

TWG

Janu

ary

Sem

inar

in J

P

Sept

embe

rO

ctob

erJu

ly

Dra

ftFi

nalR

epor

tFi

nal R

epor

t

JCC

Sem

inar

Rea

ult

of R

egio

nald

eman

d Su

rvey

8,46

0.4

8,91

0.4

9,95

5.4

10,9

15.4

11,1

65.4

11,6

75.0

4,21

2.7

4,47

9.2

5,51

6.4

5,05

0.9

6,31

7.7

6,65

2.0

0

5000

1000

0

1500

0

2000

0

2500

0

3000

0

3500

0

4000

0

4500

0

5000

0

5500

0

6000

0

6500

0

7000

0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Gen

erat

ion

Cap

acity

(Ass

umpt

ion)

Gen

erat

ion

Cap

acity

(Ins

talle

d)G

ener

atio

n C

apac

ity (A

vaila

ble)

Peak

Dem

and

(Ten

tativ

e)Tr

ansm

issi

on C

apac

ity (A

ssum

ptio

n)Pe

ak G

ener

atio

n (A

ctua

l)

Act

ual

Base

S

hort

term

M

iddle

term

Lo

ng te

rm

5,30

0

9.A

CTU

AL

AN

DA

SSU

MPT

ION

10

Gen

Cos

39%

IPP

19%NIP

P25

%

16.6

%

83.4

%Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity11

,.675

MW

Ava

ilabl

e C

apac

ity6,

652.

7MW

(57.

1%)

Peak

Gen

erat

ion

4,88

3.9M

W(4

1.9%

)

Ther

mal

Hyd

ro

10.I

SSU

ES

TOB

EM

EA

SUR

ED

BY

TWG

11

Info

rmat

ion

Shar

ing

Ade

quat

e D

ata

Man

agem

ent

Re-

stru

ctur

e TW

G (i

f nec

essa

ry)

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odic

al T

echn

ical

Wor

king

Gro

up M

eetin

gPe

riod

ical

Upd

ate

of M

aste

r Pla

n


A-4-33

12

Than

k yo

u fo

r yo

ur a

tten

tion

1

Cont

ents

1.Pr

oced

ures

ofPo

wer

Dem

and

Fore

cast

s(P0

2)

2.Fo

reca

sts

onPo

pula

tion,

GD

Pan

dO

ilpr

ice

(P05

)

3.Co

untr

yW

ide

Pow

erD

eman

dFo

reca

sts

(P08

)

4.Re

gion

alW

ise

Pow

erD

eman

dFo

reca

sts

(P14

)

5.Co

mpa

rison

ofN

iger

iaPo

wer

Dem

and

(P20

)

TWG

Wor

ksho

p on

Pow

er D

eman

d Fo

reca

sts

Janu

ary

2016

MAS

TER

PLAN

STU

DY

ON

NAT

ION

AL P

OW

ER S

YSTE

M D

EVEL

OPM

ENT

IN T

HE

FED

ERAL

REP

UBL

IC O

F N

IGER

IA

2

MM

/YY

Cont

ents

Sep

2015

(1)C

olle

ctin

g de

man

d da

ta &

str

ateg

ies

(2)

Dis

cuss

ing

met

hodo

logy

(3)

Dis

cuss

ing

str

ateg

ies

on

pow

er d

eman

d

Jan

2016

(1)B

uild

ing

Dem

and

mod

el

(2)D

iscu

ssin

g P

reco

nditi

ons

and

Resu

lts o

n th

e fo

reca

sts

(3)E

xpla

inin

g Te

ntat

ive

resu

ltsin

TW

G

(4)I

mpl

emen

ting

Regi

onal

sur

vey

by e

nd o

f M

arch

April

20

16(1

)Rev

isin

g D

ISCO

’s po

wer

dem

and

(2)D

iscu

ssin

g D

ISCO

’s po

wer

dem

and

(3)E

xpla

inin

g Re

sults

to

Stak

ehol

ders

1.Pr

oced

ures

of

Pow

er d

eman

d fo

reca

sts

1.1

Sch

edul

e on

pow

er d

eman

d fo

reca

sts

Not

e:

Regi

onal

sur

vey

is s

tudi

ed b

y TC

N a

nd F

itchn

er


A-4-34

3

Nig

eria

n C

/PFM

of

Pow

er, W

orks

& H

ousi

ng

TCN

& N

CC

JIC

ASt

udy

Team

Min

istry

and

Auth

ority

Visit

edDa

te

TCN

Tran

smis

sion

Com

pany

of

Nig

eria

19th

Jan

201

6

REA

Rura

l Ele

ctrif

icat

ion

Auth

ority

19th

Jan

201

6

ECN

Ener

gy C

omm

issi

on o

f N

iger

ia20

thJa

n 20

16

NBS

Nat

iona

l Bur

eau

of S

tatis

tics

20th

Jan

201

6

MBN

P (N

PC)

Min

istr

y of

Bud

get

and

Nat

iona

l pla

nnin

g 21

stJa

n 20

16

NN

PCN

iger

ian

Nat

iona

l Pet

role

um C

orpo

ratio

n 21

stJa

n 20

16

NER

CN

iger

ian

Elec

tric

ity R

egul

ator

y Co

mm

issi

on27

thJa

n 2

016

NBE

TN

iger

ia B

ulk

Elec

tric

ity T

rade

29th

Jan

201

6

1.2

Dis

cuss

ing

Soci

alEc

onom

ic&

Pow

erde

man

d

4

1.3

Pow

erde

man

dFo

reca

stin

gsc

hem

es

Popu

latio

n &

GD

P fo

reca

sts

DIS

CO w

ise

Pow

er d

eman

d Fo

reca

sts

Popu

latio

n gr

owth

Econ

omic

Gro

wth

Pow

er t

ariff

Resi

dent

ial d

eman

d

Indu

stry

pow

er d

eman

dCo

mm

erci

al d

eman

dPu

blic

pow

er d

eman

dT/

D-lo

ss--

----

----

----

----

----

----

Net

pow

er d

eman

dG

ener

atio

n Pe

ak d

eman

d

Elas

ticity

cal

cula

tion

ln(Y

)=a*

ln(G

DP)

-b*l

n(Ta

riff)

+ c

Fore

cast

ing

equa

tion

Y t=

Yt-

1*(

1+a*

GD

P)*(

1+b*

tarif

f)*(

1+EE

&C)

Actu

al p

ower

dem

and

2000

-201

4

Fore

cast

ing

perio

d20

15-2

045

Fore

cast

ed d

eman

dSe

ctor

alde

man

dCo

untr

y de

man

dCo

untr

y Pe

ak

Regi

onal

dem

and

Regi

onal

pea

k

Data

Shee

tM

odel

shee

tSi

mul

atio

nsh

eet

Not

e:M

etho

dolo

gy is

Eco

nom

etric

mod

el

5

2.Fo

reca

sts

on P

opul

atio

n, G

DP

and

Oil

pric

es2.

1 P

opul

atio

n Fo

reca

sts

a.To

tal p

opul

atio

n is

340

mill

ion

in 2

040

b.G

row

th r

ate

is 2

.80

% in

201

5 an

d it

is 2

.15

% in

204

0.

c.U

rban

sha

re is

52%

in 2

015

and

66%

in 2

040.

d.G

row

th r

ate

of p

opul

atio

n is

stil

l hig

h in

204

0.

Sour

ce:

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

: W

orld

Pop

ulat

ion

Pros

pect

s 20

12 D

ivis

ion

6

2.2

GD

P gr

owth

rat

e

Doc

umen

tsO

rgan

izat

ions

Gro

wth

rate

sPe

riods

Visi

on 2

0 20

20

Nig

eria

Gov

13%

per

year

2

015

-20

20G

DP

outlo

ok

NBS

6%pe

r ye

ar

2015

-20

17

GD

P ou

tlook

N

PC5%

per

year

2015

-20

20Ec

onom

ic o

utlo

ok 2

015

AfD

B7%

per

year

20

15-

2020

Econ

omic

out

look

Apr

il 20

15

IMF

6%pe

r ye

ar

2015

-20

20

Scen

ario

of

GD

P 20

15-2

020

2020

-202

520

25-2

030

2030

-203

520

35-2

040

Base

GD

P5.

0%7.

0%7.

0%7.

0%7.

0%

Hig

hG

DP

6.0%

9.0%

9.0%

9.0%

9.0%

Low

GD

P4.

5%5.

0%5.

0%5.

0%5.

0%

a.Ba

se c

ase

grow

th r

ate

from

201

5 to

202

0 is

fore

cast

ed b

y N

PCb.

Base

cas

e av

erag

e gr

owth

rat

e fr

om 2

020

to 2

040

are

7% d

ue t

opo

pula

tion

grow

th a

nd a

chie

ving

non

oil

sect

or d

iver

sific

atio

n.c.

Hig

h ca

se is

al

mos

t im

plem

entin

g Vi

sion

202

0.d.

Low

cas

e is

con

tinui

ng c

urre

nt e

cono

mic

situ

atio

n.

Ref

eren

ces

:St

rate

gy a

nd E

cono

mic

out

look


A-4-35

7

a.So

urce

:Ac

tual

dat

a fr

om B

P st

atis

tics.

b.Re

cent

dat

a fr

om T

he I

nstit

ute

of E

nerg

y Ec

onom

ics,

Jap

anc.

Bren

t oi

l pric

e is

nea

rly s

ame

to W

TI p

rice.

(Br

ent

= W

TI +

$5/

bbl)

2.3

Crud

e oi

l pric

e ou

tlook

Org

aniza

tion

Publ

icat

ion

Late

stve

rsio

nIn

tern

atio

nalE

nerg

yAg

ency

(IEA)

Wor

ldEn

ergy

Out

look

WEO

)20

15ve

rsio

n

Org

aniza

tion

ofth

ePe

trol

eum

Expo

rtin

gCo

untr

ies(

OPE

C)W

orld

Oil

Out

look

2014

vers

ion

Ener

gyIn

form

atio

nAg

ency

(EIA

,USA

)In

tern

atio

nalE

nerg

yO

utlo

ok20

14ve

rsio

n

The

Inst

itute

ofEn

ergy

Econ

omic

s,Ja

pan(

IEEJ

)As

ia/W

orld

Ener

gyO

utlo

ok20

15ve

rsio

n

8

3.1

Rec

orde

d de

man

d an

d Co

mpu

ted

dem

and

a.Re

cord

ed d

eman

d m

eans

“W

ith c

onst

rain

dem

and”

and

com

pute

d de

man

d is

“W

ithou

t co

nstr

ain

dem

and”

.b.

“For

ecas

ted

dem

and

in 2

009”

is s

tudi

ed b

y Tr

acte

bel

c.Ac

tual

dem

and

is 9

5 %

of

pow

er g

ener

atio

n (O

wn

use

is 5

%)

d.Sh

eddi

ng =

Com

pute

d de

man

d –

Reco

rded

dem

and

e.Po

wer

dem

and

in M

odel

is fo

reca

sted

with

Com

pute

d de

man

d

3.Co

untr

yW

ide

Pow

erD

eman

dFo

reca

sts

9

3.2

T-

loss

, Loa

d fa

ctor

and

Res

erve

mar

gin

a.So

urce

:Pr

econ

ditio

ns in

“M

YTO

Mod

el 2

012”

b.Fu

ture

load

fact

or is

70%

to

peak

dem

and

c.Re

serv

e m

argi

n is

20%

to

peak

dem

and

d.T-

loss

is 8

% t

o po

wer

sen

d ou

t.

Rese

rve

mar

gin

=20

%

Tlo

ssra

te=

8%

103.

3 S

ecto

ral p

ower

dem

and

(GW

h) a

s JI

CA fo

reca

sts

Sect

orU

nit

2015

20

20

2025

20

30

2035

20

40

Res

iden

tial

GW

h23

,500

32

,200

52

,500

85

,900

12

1,80

0 17

2,00

0 In

dust

ryG

Wh

6,70

0 9,

900

15,3

00

24,2

00

38,1

00

60,0

00

Com

mer

cial

G

Wh

11,3

00

16,4

00

24,7

00

36,3

00

53,1

00

77,7

00

LNG

GW

h40

0 70

0 1,

000

1,30

0 1,

700

2,10

0 Pu

blic

use

GW

h1,

400

1,70

0 2,

100

2,70

0 3,

500

4,40

0 T/

D lo

ssG

Wh

3,80

0 5,

300

8,30

0 13

,100

19

,000

27

,500

C

ompu

ted

tota

lG

Wh

47,1

00

66,3

00

104,

100

163,

400

237,

100

343,

700

2020

/15

2025

/20

2030

/25

2035

/30

2040

/35

2040

/15

G.R

. (%

)7.

19.

59.

47.

77.

78.

3


A-4-36

11

3.4

Sec

tora

l dem

and

shar

es f

rom

201

5 to

204

0

12

3.5

Peak

dem

and

as J

ICA

Fore

cast

s

Sour

ce o

f O

ff g

rid p

ower

dem

and

: En

ergy

Eff

icie

ncy

Polic

y 20

15So

urce

of

Expo

rt :

MYT

O I

I M

OD

EL -

20122015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Gro

ss p

eak

dem

and

MW

7,30

0 11

,100

17

,500

27

,400

39

,800

57

,700

Requ

ired

capa

city

MW

8,70

0 13

,300

21

,000

32

,900

47

,800

69

,200

Dom

estic

pea

k de

man

dM

W7,

100

10,8

00

17,0

00

26,7

00

38,7

00

56,0

00

TCN

pea

k de

man

dM

W5,

500

8,40

0 14

,700

25

,500

38

,700

56

,000

Auto

pro

duce

r's p

eak

dem

and

MW

1,60

0 2,

400

2,20

0 1,

200

0 0

2020

/15

2025

/20

2030

/25

2035

/30

2040

/35

2040

/15

G.R

. (%

)8.

99.

59.

47.

77.

78.

6

13

3.6

On

grid

and

Off

grid

con

trib

utio

n as

JIC

A Fo

reca

sts

Rene

wab

leU

nit

2015

2020

2030

2040

SHP

MW

601,

600

8,20

0So

lar

MW

201,

300

6,80

0Bi

oM

W0

600

3,20

0W

ind

MW

1010

030

0To

tal

MW

903,

700

23,0

00JIC

AEs

timat

esM

W10

060

025

,800

40,7

00

Sour

ce :

Nat

iona

l Ren

ewab

le E

nerg

y an

d EE

&C

polic

y, A

pril

2015

P

36

4.Re

gion

wis

e po

wer

dem

and

fore

cast

s

14

4.1

Dis

trib

utio

n co

mpa

nies

Nat

iona

l grid

1Abuj

a2B

enin3E

nugu

4Eko

5Ibad

an6I

keja

7Jos

8Kadu

na9K

ano10

Port H

arcour

11Yo

la


A-4-37

15

2014

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Abuj

a%

5457

76

100

100

100

100

Benin

%80

82

9010

010

0

10

0

10

0En

ugu

%71

73

8610

010

0

10

0

10

0Ib

adan

%80

81

9010

010

0

10

0

10

0Ik

eja+E

KO%

9999

10

010

010

0

10

0

10

0Jo

s%

4042

56

75

100

100

100

Kadu

na%

4144

58

76

100

100

100

Kano

%36

38

49

62

79

100

100

Port

Harc

our

%61

64

8010

010

0

10

0

10

0Yo

la%

3032

42

56

75

10

010

0To

tal%

57

59

71

85

95

100

100

Abuj

a10

00 p

erso

ns5,

041

5,48

48,

331

12,6

3214

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16,4

6318

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Benin

1000

per

sons

13,6

3214

,337

18,3

8723

,473

27,0

0030

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32En

ugu

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per

sons

14,2

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19,5

3025

,378

28,1

2731

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34,2

40Ib

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1000

per

sons

15,6

1216

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21,0

5926

,902

30,9

2835

,437

40,4

49Ik

eja+E

KO10

00 p

erso

ns11

,549

11,8

9513

,765

15,8

6118

,234

20,8

4123

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Jos

1000

per

sons

8,94

39,

737

14,8

5822

,608

34,3

1938

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44,0

17Ka

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1000

per

sons

8,53

29,

257

13,8

6920

,715

30,8

6634

,856

39,2

22Ka

no10

00 p

erso

ns9,

160

9,89

414

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21,1

6830

,828

44,7

5350

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Port

Harc

our

1000

per

sons

10,8

0311

,647

16,9

1024

,431

28,0

6532

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36,6

53Yo

la10

00 p

erso

ns4,

497

4,88

57,

361

11,0

7216

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24,7

9327

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Total

1000

per

sons

101,

977

108,

533

148,

568

204,

242

259,

390

310,

270

350,

969

Elec

trifie

d Po

pula

tion

Elec

trific

atio

n ra

te

4.2

DIS

CO w

ise

elec

trifi

catio

n ra

te a

nd e

lect

rifie

d po

pula

tion

Curr

ent

elec

trifi

catio

n ra

te is

57%

and

alm

ost

100%

in 2

030

Som

e D

ISCO

s ar

e 10

0% u

p to

202

5, a

nd s

ome

are

100%

in 2

030

Kano

and

Yol

a ar

e 10

0% in

203

5

16

4.3

DIS

CO w

ise

sect

oral

pow

er d

eman

d as

JIC

A Fo

reca

sts

17

4.4

DIS

CO w

ise

peak

dem

and

and

capa

city

(O

n gr

id)

Not

e:

Lago

s =

Ike

ja +

Eko

Tota

l(MW

)20

1520

2020

2520

3020

3520

40

Peak

7,40

011

,000

17,0

0027

,000

39,0

0056

,000

Cap

acity

8,70

014

,000

21,0

0033

,000

48,0

0070

,000

4.5

DIS

CO w

ise

pow

er d

eman

d (O

ff gr

id)

Off

grid

in D

ISCO

= T

otal

off

grid

*(1

-D

ISCO

ele

ctrif

ied

pop

/ To

tal e

lect

rifie

d po

p)

18

Orig

inal

For

ecas

ts:

Nat

iona

l Ren

ewab

le E

nerg

y an

d EE

&C

polic

y, A

pril

2015

P3

6


A-4-38

19

4.6

Per

cap

ita p

ower

con

sum

ptio

n (O

n+O

ff g

rid)

(ON

+ o

ff g

rid p

ower

con

sum

ptio

n) /

pop

ulat

ion

Japa

n fa

mily

use

2000

kWh

/per

son

Capa

city

(MW

)20

1520

2020

2520

3020

3520

40

On

grid

8,70

014

,000

21,0

0033

,000

48,0

0070

,000

On

& O

ff9,

200

14,3

0027

,000

59,0

0085

,000

111,

000

20

5.Co

mpa

rison

of

Nig

eria

Pow

er D

eman

d

5.1

Hig

h, B

ase,

Low

cas

es

Hig

h G

DP

9%Ba

se

GD

P 7%

Low

G

DP

5%

21

5.2

Tra

cteb

el,

ECN

and

JIC

A

Sour

ce :

Tr

acte

bel:

Nat

iona

l Loa

d D

eman

d St

udy

in 2

009

JICA

Stu

dy t

eam

: B

ase

case

(G

DP

7% /

yea

r)

in 2

016

ECN

201

5: N

atio

nal c

alcu

lato

r 20

50 p

ublis

hed

in 2

015

(Gre

ater

eff

ort

case

, G

DP

7% /

yea

r)

Peak

17G

W

Peak

70G

W

Peak

110

GW

22

5.3

Per

cap

ita p

ower

con

sum

ptio

n an

d pe

r ca

pita

GD

P

Sour

ceof

Cou

ntry

’s da

ta is

Wor

ld B

ank

data

bas

e


A-4-39

23

5.4

Per

cap

ita p

ower

dem

and

vs p

er c

apita

GD

P

The

poin

ts o

f th

e co

untr

ies

are

at 2

011

GD

P pe

r ca

pita

in a

ll co

untr

ies

are

2011

pric

esN

iger

ia p

oint

s ar

e 20

11, 20

20, 20

25, 20

30, 20

35 a

nd 2

040.

Sour

ceof

Cou

ntry

’s da

ta is

Wor

ld B

ank

data

bas

e

Viet

nam

24

Than

k yo

u

1.Po

wer

tar

iffes

timat

ion

fro

m N

ERC.

(Al

read

y ge

t)

2.D

isco

wis

e pe

ak d

eman

d fro

m T

CN-N

CC. (

Not

yet

)

3.Re

gion

al p

ower

dem

and

surv

ey fr

om F

icht

ner.

(Not

yet

)

Wai

ting

for

the

Dat

a

THE

PRO

JEC

TFO

RM

ASTE

R P

LAN

STU

DY

ON

NAT

ION

AL P

OW

ER S

YSTE

M

DEV

ELO

PMEN

TIN

THE

FED

ERAL

REP

UBL

IC O

F N

IGER

IA

Gen

erat

ion

Exp

ansi

on P

lan

4th

Febr

uary

201

6JI

CA

Stu

dy T

eam

Con

tent

s1.

Met

hodo

logy

2.E

xist

ing

pow

er p

lant

s in

Nig

eria

3.O

n-go

ing/

plan

ned

gene

ratio

n pr

ojec

ts4.

Varia

ble

cand

idat

es fo

r fut

ure

expa

nsio

n5.

Rel

iabi

lity

crite

ria-L

OLP

(Los

s of

Loa

d P

roba

bilit

y)6.

Prim

ary

ener

gy re

sour

ces

and

avai

labi

lity

7.P

ower

dev

elop

men

t sce

nario

s

2


A-4-40

1.M

etho

dolo

gy1.

1 An

alyt

ical to

ol u

sed

for p

ower

dev

elop

men

t pla

nnin

g

Sou

rce:

IAE

A (A

ug.2

009)

”Too

ls a

nd M

etho

dolo

gies

for E

nerg

y S

yste

m P

lann

ing

and

Nuc

lear

Ene

rgy

Sys

tem

Ass

essm

ents

”

3

Pre

viou

s pr

esen

tatio

n (M

r. In

oue)

S

lide

2. E

xist

ing

pow

er p

lant

s

Slid

e 3

& S

lide

4

Slid

e 5

Loss

Of L

oad

Pro

babi

lity

Slid

e 6

Prim

ary

ener

gy re

sour

ces

Slid

e 7

Pol

icy

and

scen

ario

s

1.M

etho

dolo

gy1.

2 H

ow W

ASP

wor

ks?

•A

nop

timal

pow

erde

velo

pmen

tpl

anni

ngso

ftwar

ena

med

WA

SP

(Wie

nA

utom

atic

Sys

tem

Pla

nnin

gP

acka

ge,

Vers

ion

4.0.

3)de

velo

ped

byIA

EA

isus

edto

seek

the

leas

tcos

tpow

erde

velo

pmen

tpl

anth

atis

aco

mbi

natio

nof

vario

usty

pes

ofpl

ants

and

deve

lopm

entp

atte

rns.

•In

WA

SP,

apo

wer

deve

lopm

ent

plan

that

has

the

leas

tO

bjec

tive

Func

tion

(see

belo

wfo

rde

tails

)w

ithin

the

limita

tion

ofLO

LPan

dre

serv

em

argi

nis

soug

htth

roug

hth

eca

lcul

atio

n.•

OF

CS

VO

&M

whe

re,

OF

Obj

ectiv

e Fu

nctio

nC

Con

stru

ctio

n C

ost

SV

Sal

vage

Val

ueO

&M

Ope

ratio

nM

aint

enan

ce C

ost

4

2.Ex

istin

g po

wer

pla

nts

in N

iger

ia5

Cat

egor

yPo

wer

Pla

ntTy

peIn

stal

led

Cap

acity

(MW

)(O

n si

te c

apac

ity,*

und

er c

onst

ruct

ion)

Avai

labl

eC

apac

ity(M

W)

FGN

Succ

esso

rC

ompa

nies

(Hyd

ro)

Kai

nji

Dam

Hyd

ro76

080

MW

x4, 1

00M

Wx2

, 120

MW

x244

4Je

bba

Dam

Hyd

ro57

896

MW

x643

1S

hiro

roD

am H

ydro

600

150M

Wx4

508

Sub

Tota

l1,

938

1,38

3

FGN

Succ

esso

rC

ompa

nies

(The

rmal

)

Egb

inG

as (S

team

turb

ine)

1,32

022

0MW

x694

1A

fam

(IV&

V)

Gas

fire

d G

T72

875

MW

x6, 1

38M

Wx2

3D

elta

Gas

fire

d G

T90

025

MW

x12,

100

MW

x646

3S

apel

eG

as (S

team

turb

ine)

660

110M

Wx6

219

Ger

ugu

Gas

fire

d G

T41

413

8MW

x332

8O

loru

nsog

o I

Gas

fire

d G

T33

642

MW

x827

7O

mot

osho

Gas

fire

d G

T33

642

MW

x828

0Su

b To

tal

4,69

42,

511

NIP

P

Olo

runs

hogo

Com

bine

dcy

cle

700

GT:

112.

5MW

X4, S

T:12

5MW

x226

0A

laoj

iC

ombi

ned

cycl

e45

0 (1

,021

)*G

T:11

2.5M

Wx4

, ST:

285M

Wx2

158

Ger

ugu

Gas

fire

d G

T43

514

5MW

x315

9Ih

ovbo

rG

as fi

red

GT

450

112.

5MW

x437

4O

mot

osho

Gas

fire

d G

T45

011

2.5M

Wx4

306

Sap

ele

Gas

fire

d G

T45

011

2.5M

Wx4

184

Cal

abar

Gas

fire

d G

T(5

63)*

112.

5MW

x523

4G

bara

inG

as fi

red

GT

(225

)*11

2.5M

Wx2

0O

mok

uG

as fi

red

GT

(225

)*11

2.5M

Wx2

0E

gbem

aG

as fi

red

GT

(338

)*11

2.5M

Wx3

0Su

b To

tal

2,93

51,

675

IPP-

A (E

xist

ing)

Riv

erG

as fi

red

GT

180

180M

Wx1

0O

mok

u (G

T)G

as fi

red

GT

150

25M

Wx6

0A

SC

OG

as fi

red

GT

140

140M

Wx1

0Tr

ans-

Am

adi (

GT)

Gas

fire

d G

T10

025

MW

x40

Okp

aiC

ombi

ned

cycl

e48

015

0MW

x323

0Ib

omG

as fi

red

GT

188

112M

Wx1

, 38M

Wx2

91Af

am V

IC

ombi

ned

cycl

e60

015

0MW

x458

7A

ES

Gas

fire

d G

T27

030

MW

x917

5S

ub T

otal

2,10

81,

083

Gra

nd T

otal

(The

rmal

+ H

ydro

)11

,675

6,65

2

3.O

n-go

ing/

plan

ned

gene

ratio

n pr

ojec

ts (T

herm

al an

d R

enew

able)

6


A-4-41

3.O

n-go

ing/

plan

ned

gene

ratio

n pr

ojec

ts (H

ydro

)

Proj

ect

nam

eIn

stal

led

capa

city

(MW

)

Type

Loca

tion

Stat

usEx

pect

ed

com

plet

ion

Kas

him

billa

40D

amTa

raba

Und

er c

onst

ruct

ion

2015

Gur

ara-

I30

Dam

Nig

erD

am c

ompl

eted

Not

oper

able

with

out

trans

mis

sion

line

Dam

:201

1Tr

ansm

issi

on:

Und

erpl

anni

ngZu

nger

u70

0D

amN

iger

Und

er c

onst

ruct

ion

2017

Mam

billa

3,05

0D

amTa

raba

EPC

con

tract

sig

ned

in

2014

2020

Gur

ara-

II36

0D

amN

iger

Bid

pre

para

tion

N/A

7

4.Va

riabl

e ca

ndid

ates

for f

utur

e ex

pans

ion

Cap

acity

Effic

iency

*C

ost*

*Pl

ant l

ifeS

impl

e cy

cle

gas

turb

ine

100M

W c

lass

30.8

%$9

80/k

W30

yea

rs20

0MW

cla

ss34

.7%

$680

/kW

30 y

ears

Com

bine

dcy

cle

300M

W c

lass

51.4

%$9

80/k

W30

yea

rs50

0MW

cla

ss54

.0%

$941

/kW

30 y

ears

1,00

0MW

cla

ss55

.1%

$842

/kW

30 y

ears

Coa

l fire

d co

nven

tiona

l30

0MW

cla

ss40

.7%

$2,5

00/k

W40

yea

rs70

0MW

cla

ss42

.1%

$2,0

00/k

W40

yea

rs1,

000M

W c

lass

43.0

%$2

,000

/kW

40 y

ears

8

Ther

mal

can

dida

tes

Hyd

ro c

andi

date

sP

oten

tial h

ydro

site

s w

hich

are

iden

tifie

d th

roug

h a

stud

y na

med

“Scr

eeni

ng fo

rH

ydro

pow

er O

ptio

ns w

ith A

ssoc

iate

d W

ater

Res

ourc

es D

evel

opm

ent i

n th

eN

iger

Bas

in” a

ssis

ted

by th

e W

orld

Ban

k an

d co

nduc

ted

by T

ract

ebel

Eng

inee

ring

will

be

used

for t

he P

roje

ct. O

ut o

f 64

site

s id

entif

ied

by th

e W

Bst

udy,

20

to 3

0 si

tes

whi

ch h

ave

high

rank

ing

scor

es a

nd la

rge

capa

city

will

be

sele

cted

for h

ydro

can

dida

tes

for t

he P

roje

ct.

[Rem

arks

] *: H

HV

bas

e

[Sou

rce]

**: “

Upd

ated

Cap

ital C

ost E

stim

ates

for U

tility

Sca

le E

lect

ricity

Gen

erat

ing

Pla

nts”

(US

-EIA

), G

as T

urbi

ne W

orld

Han

dboo

k

5.R

elia

bility

crit

eria

-LO

LP (L

oss

of L

oad

Prob

abilit

y)•

The

LOLP

(Los

s O

f Loa

d P

roba

bilit

y) is

use

d as

the

indi

cato

r for

eva

luat

ing

the

relia

bilit

y of

pow

er s

uppl

y, a

nd th

e po

wer

dev

elop

men

t pla

n w

hich

satis

fies

the

targ

et L

OLP

will

be c

ompi

led.

•LO

LP is

def

ined

as

prob

able

dur

atio

n of

tim

e w

hen

pow

er s

uppl

y ca

paci

tyfa

lls s

hort

of p

ower

dem

and

due

to c

apac

ity o

utag

e as

follo

ws.

Oi

Cap

acity

out

age

amou

nt th

at c

ause

s su

pply

sho

rtage

Pi

Pro

babi

lity

that

cap

acity

out

age

of O

ihap

pens

t iTi

me

whe

n ca

paci

ty o

utag

e O

icon

tinue

sH

ence

,LO

LPP

it i

•LO

LP is

wid

ely

appl

ied

thro

ugho

ut th

e w

orld

as

a st

anda

rd o

f pow

er s

uppl

yre

liabi

lity:

NE

RC

(Nor

th A

mer

ican

Ele

ctric

Rel

iabi

lity

Cor

pora

tion)

ado

pts

aLO

LP o

f 1 d

ay /

10 y

ears

, whi

le P

LN in

Indo

nesi

a ad

opts

1 d

ay /

year

, and

CE

B (C

eylo

n E

lect

ricity

Boa

rd) a

dopt

s 3

days

/yea

r.•

In th

is P

roje

ct, i

t is

inte

nded

to a

dopt

LO

LP 1

day

/ ye

ar a

s th

e ta

rget

relia

bilit

y st

anda

rd.

9

6.Pr

imar

y en

ergy

reso

urce

s an

d av

aila

bility

6.1

Nat

ural

gas

rese

rve

in N

iger

ia•

Pro

ved

natu

ral g

as re

serv

e in

Nig

eria

is 1

80.1

Tcf

and

Res

erve

s-to

-P

rodu

ctio

n (R

/P) r

atio

is m

ore

than

100

yea

rs a

t end

of 2

014

(BP

Sta

tistic

al R

evie

w 2

015)

.•

Nat

ural

gas

use

d fo

r pow

erge

nera

tion

acco

unts

for 9

%of

tota

l gas

con

sum

ptio

n.(N

iger

ia P

ower

Bas

elin

e R

epor

t)•

Stil

l, na

tura

l gas

is a

prom

isin

g so

urce

of

pow

er g

ener

atio

n in

Nig

eria

.

10

[Sou

rce]

“Nig

eria

Pow

er B

asel

ine

Rep

ort”

(Sep

.201

5)A

dvis

ory

Pow

er T

eam

, Offi

ce o

f the

Vic

e P

resi

dent


A-4-42

6.Pr

imar

yen

ergy

reso

urce

san

d av

aila

bility

6.2

Coa

l res

erve

in N

iger

ia

11

Estim

ated

Prov

enD

epth

of

Res

erve

Res

erve

Coa

l[M

mt]

[Mm

t][m

]1

Okp

ara*

Enug

uSu

b-bi

tum

inou

s10

024

180

Unde

rgro

und

2O

nyea

ma*

Enug

uSu

b-bi

tum

inou

s15

040

-Un

derg

roun

d3

Ihio

ma

Imo

Lign

ite40

N/A

20-8

0Su

rface

4O

gboy

oga

Kogi

Sub-

bitu

min

ous

427

107

20-1

00Su

rface

and

und

ergr

ound

5O

gwas

hi A

zago

ba O

bom

kpa

Del

taLi

gnite

250

6315

-100

Surfa

ce a

nd u

nder

grou

nd6

Ezim

oEn

ugu

Sub-

bitu

min

ous

156

5630

-45

Surfa

ce a

nd u

nder

grou

nd7

Inyi

Enug

uSu

b-bi

tum

inou

s50

2025

-78

Surfa

ce a

nd u

nder

grou

nd

8La

fia/O

biNa

ssar

awa

Bitu

min

ous

(cok

able

)15

621

.42

80Un

derg

roun

d

9O

ba/N

new

iAn

ambr

aSu

b-bi

tum

inou

s30

N/A

18-3

8Un

derg

roun

d10

Afikp

o/O

kigw

eEb

onyi/

Imo

Sub-

bitu

min

ous

50N/

A20

-100

Unde

rgro

und

11Am

asio

doEn

ugu

Bitu

min

ous

(cok

able

)1,

000

N/A

563

Unde

rgro

und

12O

kaba

*Ko

giSu

b-bi

tum

inou

s25

073

20-1

00Su

rface

and

und

ergr

ound

13O

wuk

pa*

Benu

eSu

b-bi

tum

inou

s75

5720

-100

Surfa

ce a

nd u

nder

grou

nd14

Ogu

gu/A

wgu

Enug

uSu

b-bi

tum

inou

sN/

AN/

AN/

AUn

derg

roun

d15

Afuj

iEd

oSu

b-bi

tum

inou

sN/

AN/

AN/

AUn

derg

roun

d16

Ute

Ond

oSu

b-bi

tum

inou

sN/

AN/

AN/

AUn

derg

roun

d17

Doh

oG

ombe

Sub-

bitu

min

ous

N/A

N/A

N/A

Unde

rgro

und

18Ku

rum

uG

ombe

Sub-

bitu

min

ous

N/A

N/A

N/A

Unde

rgro

und

19La

mja

Adam

awa

Sub-

bitu

min

ous

N/A

N/A

N/A

Unde

rgro

und

20G

arin

Mai

gung

uG

ombe

Sub-

bitu

min

ous

N/A

N/A

N/A

Unde

rgro

und

21G

indi

n Ak

wat

iPl

atea

uSu

b-bi

tum

inou

sN/

AN/

AN/

AUn

derg

roun

d22

Jam

ato

Koji

Kwar

aSu

b-bi

tum

inou

sN/

AN/

AN/

AUn

derg

roun

d2,

734

461

Type

of c

oal

Stat

eM

ine

Loca

tion

S/No

Tota

l

Min

ing

Met

hod(

s)

7.Po

wer

dev

elop

men

t sce

nario

s7.

1 E

nerg

y se

ctor

pol

icy in

Nig

eria

•N

atio

nal E

nerg

y M

aste

r Pla

n 20

14•

Cha

pter

4 C

oal a

nd ta

r san

ds/B

itum

en•

The

natio

n sh

all e

nsur

e ad

equa

te s

uppl

y of

coa

l to

mee

t the

ene

rgy

requ

irem

ents

of t

he c

ount

ry in

a c

ost e

ffect

ive

and

sust

aina

ble

man

ner.

•C

hapt

er 5

Nuc

lear

Ene

rgy

•Th

e na

tion

shal

l pro

mot

e th

e de

velo

pmen

t of n

ucle

ar e

nerg

y an

d un

derta

keal

l act

iviti

es re

late

d to

pea

cefu

l use

s of

nuc

lear

ene

rgy

in it

s en

tire

ram

ifica

tion.

•C

hapt

er 6

Ren

ewab

le E

nerg

y•

Hyd

ro: T

he n

atio

n sh

all f

ully

har

ness

the

hydr

opow

er p

oten

tial i

n th

eco

untry

for e

lect

ricity

gen

erat

ion.

•So

lar:

The

natio

n sh

all a

ggre

ssiv

ely

purs

ue th

e in

tegr

atio

n of

sol

ar e

nerg

yin

to th

e na

tion’

s en

ergy

mix

, whi

ch s

houl

d be

bas

e on

the

esta

blis

hed

pote

ntia

ls a

nd a

vaila

ble

tech

nolo

gies

nat

ionw

ide.

•W

ind:

The

nat

ion

shal

l com

mer

cial

ly d

evel

op it

s w

ind

ener

gy re

sour

ce a

ndin

tegr

ate

this

with

oth

er e

nerg

y re

sour

ces

into

a b

alan

ced

ener

gy m

ix.

•C

hapt

er 8

Ele

ctric

ity•

The

natio

n sh

all p

ursu

e m

easu

res

to d

iver

sify

ene

rgy

sour

ces

for

elec

trici

ty s

uppl

y.•

The

natio

n sh

all e

nsur

e a

sust

aina

ble

supp

ly o

f gas

for e

lect

ricity

gene

ratio

n.

12

7.Po

wer

dev

elop

men

t sce

nario

s7.

1 E

nerg

y se

ctor

pol

icy in

Nig

eria

(con

t’d)

NAT

ION

AL

REN

EWA

BLE

EN

ERG

Y A

ND

EN

ERG

Y EF

FIC

IEN

CY

POLI

CY

(NR

EEEP

)R

enew

able

ele

ctric

ity ta

rget

s

13

Shor

t ter

m20

15M

ediu

mte

rm20

20Lo

ng te

rm20

30

Larg

e hy

dro

(MW

)2,

121

4,54

94,

627

Sm

all h

ydro

(MW

)14

01,

607

8,17

4

Sol

ar (M

W)

117

1,34

36,

831

Win

d (M

W)

5563

13,

211

Bio

mas

s (M

W)

557

292

% o

f Ren

ewab

les

with

Lar

gehy

dro

10%

18%

20%

% o

f Ren

ewab

les

with

out L

arge

hydr

o1.

30%

8%16

%

7.Po

wer

dev

elop

men

t sce

nario

s7.

2 S

cena

rio s

ettin

g

*1: A

1,0

00M

W c

oal f

ired

pow

er p

lant

con

sum

es 3

mill

ion

ton

of c

oal f

or o

ne y

ear,

90 m

illio

n to

n fo

r 30y

ears

. Con

side

ring

the

prov

ed re

serv

e of

461

milli

on to

n, th

e re

serv

e ca

n ac

com

mod

ate

up to

5,0

00M

W c

oal f

ired

pow

er p

lant

s.*2

: Mor

e pr

oved

coa

l res

erve

nee

ds to

be

iden

tifie

d.

14

Cap

acity

Sha

reEv

alua

tion

Gas

Coa

lH

ydro

and

R

enew

able

Cost

EnergyBalance

Environment

Sce

nario

-1(C

onse

rvat

ive)

70%

10%

*120

%

Sce

nario

-2(M

ore

coal

)60

%20

%*2

20%

Sce

nario

-3(N

o co

al)

75%

0%25

%


A-4-43

Nuc

lear

pow

er in

Nig

eria

?15

Nuc

lear

pow

er p

lant

s in

the

wor

ld (a

s of

Jan

. 201

6, IA

EA

stat

istic

s)

Com

paris

on o

f uni

t con

stru

ctio

n co

st

Type

Cap

acity

Uni

t Con

st. C

ost

Nuc

lear

1,10

0MW

$ 5,

600/

kWC

ombi

ned

cycl

e1,

000M

W$8

42/k

WC

oal f

ired

conv

entio

nal

1,00

0MW

$2,0

00/k

W[S

ourc

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pdat

ed C

apita

l Cos

t Est

imat

es fo

r Util

ity S

cale

Ele

ctric

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ener

atin

g P

lant

s” (U

S-E

IA),

Gas

Tur

bine

Wor

ld H

andb

ook

Cur

rent

ly, th

ere

are

only

tw

o nu

clea

r pow

er p

lant

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ca (S

outh

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ca)

1

2

1.

Wh

at

is S

tra

teg

ic E

nvi

ron

me

nta

l A

sse

ssm

en

t(S

EA

) ?

2.

SE

A i

n p

ow

er

pla

nn

ing

3.

Act

ivit

ies

in T

WG

fo

r E

SC

4.

Sco

pin

g o

f e

nvi

ron

me

nta

l a

nd

so

cia

l im

pa

cts

5.

Da

ta f

or

SE

A

6.

Nex

t S

EA

wo

rk p

lan


A-4-44

3

Ana

lytic

al a

nd p

artic

ipat

ory

appr

oach

that

aim

s to

in

tegr

ate

envi

ronm

enta

l con

side

ratio

ns in

to p

olic

ies,

pl

ans,

and

pro

gram

s, a

nd e

valu

ate

the

inte

r lin

kage

s w

ith e

cono

mic

and

soc

ial c

onsi

dera

tions

.”O

ECD

/DAC

, “Ap

plyi

ng S

trat

egic

Env

ironm

enta

l Ass

essm

ent:

good

pra

ctic

e gu

idan

ce fo

r dev

elop

men

t co

oper

atio

n” (2

006)

Ove

rall

proc

ess

for

SEA

:In

vest

igat

e m

ultip

le s

cena

rios

to b

e co

mpa

red

Inve

stig

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ulat

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impa

cts

Scop

ing

of e

nvir

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enta

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soc

ial i

mpa

cts

Sta

keho

lder

mee

tings

(as

need

ed)

4

STR

ATE

GIC

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NTA

L A

SS

ES

SM

EN

T (S

EA

) IN

PO

WE

R P

LAN

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G

5

AC

TIV

ITIE

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N T

EC

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ICA

L W

OR

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GR

OU

P (

ES

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up

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eti

ng

1 (

Jan

. 1

9,

20

16

)S

EA

pro

cess

Sta

keh

old

er a

na

lysi

s -1

Gro

up

Me

eti

ng

2 (

Jan

. 2

5,

20

16

)S

take

hol

der

an

aly

sis

-2

Sco

pin

g d

iscu

ssio

n

6

SC

OP

ING

FO

R S

TRA

TEG

IC

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NTA

L A

SS

ES

SM

EN

T

Pot

entia

l im

pact

s of

the

pow

er s

yste

m d

evel

opm

ent

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iron

men

tal p

ollu

tion

& N

atur

al e

nvir

onm

ent)

A+

/-: S

igni

fican

t pos

itive

/neg

ativ

e im

pact

B+

/-: P

ositi

ve/n

egat

ive

impa

ct to

som

e ex

tent

C: P

ositi

ve/n

egat

ive

impa

ct u

nkno

wn

D: N

o im

pact


A-4-45

7

SC

OP

ING

FO

R S

TRA

TEG

IC

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NTA

L A

SS

ES

SM

EN

TP

oten

tial i

mpa

cts

of t

he p

ower

sys

tem

dev

elop

men

t(S

ocia

l env

iron

men

t an

d ot

her

issu

es)

En

viro

nm

en

tal

reg

ula

tio

ns

rela

ted

to

po

we

rse

cto

r

CO

2:

Nig

eri

a’s

In

ten

de

d N

ati

on

all

y D

ete

rmin

ed

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

ns

in C

OP

21

Bio

div

ers

ity

an

d p

rote

cte

d a

rea

da

ta/m

ap

sN

ati

on

al

pa

rks,

in

tern

ati

on

all

y p

rote

cted

are

as

etc.

… A

nd

mo

re d

ata

ne

cess

ary

fo

r d

eta

ile

d S

EA

8

DA

TA F

OR

STR

ATE

GIC

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NTA

L A

SS

ES

SM

EN

T

9

NE

XT

SE

A W

OR

K P

LAN

Yu

rik

o K

ud

o

yr-k

ud

o@

intl

.ya

chiy

o-e

ng

.co

.jp

10

WE

WO

ULD

AP

PR

EC

IATE

YO

UR

C

OO

PE

RA

TIO

N

THA

NK

YO

U!


A-4-46

13th February 2017 2nd TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP

(PROGRESS WORKSHOP)


A-4-47


A-4-48


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A-4-54

appendix - jica · engr. e.o ajayi, director (erd), fmp mr. masatsugu komiya, jica team mr. austin...

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