APCC MME Seasonal Prediction System

Beckman Institute, Caltech, Pasadena CA, USA

December 11-13, 2014

Jinyoung Rhee

with colleagues in the

Climate Research Department

APEC Climate Center

December 12, 2014

International Global Drought Information System Workshop: Next Steps

Outline

• APCC MME Seasonal Prediction System

• MME data for application studies

• A regional drought pilot study

History

2006 2014 2008 2010 2012

3M Lead Seasonal-rolling DMME Forecasts 3M Lead Monthly-rolling

DMME & PMME Forecasts

6M Lead Monthly-rolling DMME &PMME

Forecasts

Hindcast Verification of 3M Lead DMME Forecasts

Hindcast Verification of 3M Lead PMME Forecasts

Hindcast Verification of

6M Lead DMME & PMME Forecasts

Real-Time Verification of 3M Lead DMME & PMME Forecasts

(but, not operational)

PMME Forecasts

2004 JJA

2007 OND

2013 Sep.

Sixteen organizations from ten countries

Data Providers

DMME: SCM Forecast (2008JFM-2013DJF)

PMME: ROC Score (2008JFM-2013DJF)

APCC PMME vs. CPC Manual Outlook (2008JFM-2012DJF)

CPC data: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/verification/summary/index.php?page=chart

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/verification/

APCC PMME Prcp vs. IRI MME with AGCMs (2008JFM-2013DJF)

IRI

APCC

APCC PMME Temp vs. IRI MME with AGCMs (2008JFM-2013DJF)

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/verification/

IRI

APCC

Sohn et al. (2013) Six month-lead downscaling prediction of winter to spring drought in South Korea based on a multimodel ensemble, GRL 40: 579-583.

Six month-lead (raw) MME prediction

• MME shows no skill in either

SPI6 or SPEI6 prediction in any

South Korea locations

• Predicting local hydrological

extreme is challenging, even

with the use of state-of-the-art

MME seasonal prediction

systems

Statistical downscaling: regression-based coupled pattern projection with optimal predictor selection

<Figure> Scatter plots of TCCs between the observed and predicted precipitation (x axis) and temperature (y axis), for the target month of (a) December, (b) January, (c) February, (d) March, (e) April, and (f) May. The “distance” between the downscaled and raw MME results is given at the upper right of each panel.

DMME / each station

DMME / averaged for all stations

Raw MME / each station

Raw MME / averaged for all stations

<Figure above> Time series of the observed and predicted 6 month SPEIs, averaged over 60 station locations in South Korea.

<Figure left> Scatter plots of TCCs (x axis) and linear error in probability scores (y axis) between the observed and predicted 6 month SPEI.

SP

EI

DMME / each station

Raw MME / each station

Thank You

Target Regions for Prediction and Verification

GL: Global, NE: Northern Extratropics, SE: Southern Extratropics, TR: Tropics, EAs: East Asia, SAs: South Asia, NAm: North America, SAm: South America, AU: Australia, AU_SP: Australia+S.Pacific, NEu: Northern Eurasia, ME: Middle East

APCC’s domain of interest

WMO recommendation