aof sugar outlook - usda€¦ · balance sheets production (mt) 200m 150m 100m map 2021/22 2021/22...
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AOF SUGAR OUTLOOKFebruary 2021Presented by WWW.CZAPP.COM
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No.11 MARKET PRICE
2
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No.11 FORWARD CURVE
3
12
12.5
13
13.5
14
14.5
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
Mar'21 May'21 Jul'21 Oct'21 Mar'22 May'22 Jul'22 Oct'22 Mar'23 May'23 Jul'23 Oct'23
c/lb
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2020/21 BALANCE
4
2.9m tonnes
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RAW SUGAR EXPORTERS 2020-2021
5
2020 2021
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RAW SUGAR EXPORTERS 2022
6
Thailand to Return
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BRAZIL – MAX SUGAR PRODUCTION AGAIN?
7
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BRL SUGAR RETURNS
8
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BRAZIL CS PRODUCTION FORECAST
9
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BRAZIL CROP RISKS? – DRY WEATHER
10
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THAILAND – WILL THE CROP BOUNCE BACK
11
4mmt
But Cane availability is a big question mark:
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CAN THE EU ALSO REBOUND?
12
We think so -
But yields will be the big question:
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EU ?
13
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KEY TAKE AWAYS
14
• We expect the market to remain in a small surplus next year• This is expecting good crops across 4 key markets: Brazil, India, Thailand, and EU.• There are significant questions for all these crops
• Brazilian Cane quality• Thai Cane volume is an unknown• EU Yields• Indian monsoon
• However uncertainty is likely to remain for a while as Covid-19 disruptions continue to affect logistics and market sentiment.