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“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to Werner Heisenberg March 1, 1958

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Page 1: “This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an ...“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to

“ThisistoshowtheworldthatIcanpaintlikeTi4an““Onlytechnicaldetailsaremissing”

WolfgangPaulitoWernerHeisenbergMarch1,1958

Page 2: “This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an ...“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to

“ThisistoshowtheworldthatIcanpaintlikeTi4an““Onlytechnicaldetailsaremissing”

WolfgangPaulitoWernerHeisenbergMarch1,1958

Page 3: “This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an ...“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to

“ThisistoshowtheworldthatIcanpaintlikeTi4an““Onlytechnicaldetailsaremissing”

WolfgangPaulitoWernerHeisenbergMarch1,1958

“TheFlayingofCepheus”Ti4an’slastpain4ng1570-76

Page 4: “This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an ...“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to

“ThisistoshowtheworldthatIcanpaintlikeTi4an““Onlytechnicaldetailsaremissing”

WolfgangPaulitoWernerHeisenbergMarch1,1958

“TheFlayingofCepheus”Ti4an’slastpain4ng1570-76

Page 5: “This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an ...“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to
Page 6: “This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an ...“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to
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LeaviM(2018minus110)

MV=AlogP+B

Page 8: “This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an ...“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to

“CepheidManifold”

Page 9: “This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an ...“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to

TheLRCRela4on(Twoparameters.Really?)

L = 4π R2 σT4

Page 10: “This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an ...“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to

Foralloscilla4ngsystems

Pρ½=Qbutρ=M/(4/3πR3)andthenPρ½=PR3/2[M/(4π/3)]=QallowingPeriod(P)tobesubs4tutedforRadius(R)[atfixedMass(M)]

Page 11: “This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an ...“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to

ThePLCRela4on(Twoparameters.Really?)

Mv = α log P + β(V-I)o + γ

Page 12: “This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an ...“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to

ThePLRela4on(Twoparameters.Really?)

•  BasicThermalPhysics&Geometry(Sta4c)•  StellarPulsa4on(P√ρ)•  StellarExcita4on(He+Instability:BlueEdge)•  StellarDe-Excita4on(Convec4on:RedEdge)•  StellarEvolu4on(Bolometric)•  StellarAtmospheres(Shocks,Convec4on,LineBlankemng)•  StellarComposi4on(Interior&Atmospheric)•  StarForma4onHistory(Con4ngent)•  MassLoss(When,Why&HowMuch?)

•  Reddening(Foreground&Individual)•  Binaries(Calibrators&Targets)•  Crowding(Wavelength&DistanceDependent,The“AGBFloor”)

INTRINSICEXTRINSIC

Page 13: “This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an ...“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to

Lookingtothefuture.Sure,but…

“Thosewhodonotlearnfromhistoryaredoomedtorepeatit.”

G.Santayana(1906)

Page 14: “This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an ...“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to

HistoricalTimelineonDealingwithMajorSystema4cs

ReddeningWesenheitMagnitudes(Madore,B.F.1982,ApJ,253,575)Mul4-WavelengthFimng(Freedman,W.L.1988,ApJ,326,691)MovetotheNearInfrared(McGonegal,McLaren,McAlary&Madore1983,ApJ,269,641)

MetallicityHIIRegionGradients(Freedman&Madore1990,ApJ,365,186)TRGBCalibra4on(Lee,Freedman&Madore1993,ApJ,417,553)

CrowdingMovingfromGround-to-Space(HSTKeyProject,Cycle1,1988)AberratedWFPC&M81(Freedmanetal.1994,ApJ,427,628)

[email protected]@18.477magTRGBCross-Calibra4on(Lee,Freedman&Madore1993,ApJ,417,553)

Op4mizedDiscoveryandCharacteriza4onNon-Uniform,Power-LawSampling(Madore&Freedman2005,ApJ,630,1054)WavelengthDependenceofScaMer,Amplitude,Slope,etc.(Madore&Freedman,1991,PASP,103,933)

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Reddening-FreeWesenheitFunc4on

1981

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1987

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1991

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TheMovetotheInfrared

1982

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HistoricalTimelineonDealingwithMajorSystema4cs

ReddeningWesenheitMagnitudes(Madore,B.F.1982,ApJ,253,575)Mul4-WavelengthFimng(Freedman,W.L.1988,ApJ,326,691)MovetotheNearInfrared(McGonegal,McLaren,McAlary&Madore1983,ApJ,269,641)

MetallicityHIIRegionGradients(Freedman&Madore1990,ApJ,365,186)TRGBCalibra4on(Lee,Freedman&Madore1993,ApJ,417,553)

CrowdingMovingfromGround-to-Space(HSTKeyProject,Cycle1,1988)AberratedWFPC&M81(Freedmanetal.1994,ApJ,427,628)

[email protected]@18.477magTRGBCross-Calibra4on(Lee,Freedman&Madore1993,ApJ,417,553)

Op4mizedDiscoveryandCharacteriza4onNon-Uniform,Power-LawSampling(Madore&Freedman2005,ApJ,630,1054)WavelengthDependenceofScaMer,Amplitude,Slope,etc.(Madore&Freedman,1991,PASP,103,933)

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1993

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TRGB-BasedMetallicityTestLee,Freedman&Madore(1993)

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TRGB-BasedMetallicityTestLee,Freedman&Madore(1993)

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ThePLRela4on(No,20parameters.Really!)

•  BasicThermalPhysics&Geometry(Sta4c)•  StellarPulsa4on(P√ρ)•  StellarExcita4on(He+Instability:BlueEdge)•  StellarDe-Excita4on(Convec4on:RedEdge)•  StellarEvolu4on(Bolometric)•  StellarAtmospheres(Shocks,Convec4on,LineBlankemng)•  StellarComposi4on(Interior&Atmospheric)•  StarForma4onHistory(Con4ngent)•  MassLoss(When,Why&HowMuch?)

•  Reddening(Foreground&Individual)•  Binaries(Calibrators&Targets)•  Crowding(Wavelength&DistanceDependent,The“AGBFloor”)

INTRINSICEXTRINSIC

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TheslopeandthewidthofthemarginalizedPLCrela4on(LeaviMLaw)

aresetbytwoindependentconstraintsonthePLCnotthePLCitself.

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HeIoniza4onLayerstotheBlueandtheOnsetofConvec4ontotheRed

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Willitbeseenpulsa4ng?Wherearetheedges?

Page 27: “This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an ...“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to

ThePLRela4on(No,20parameters.Really!)

•  BasicThermalPhysics&Geometry(Sta4c)•  StellarPulsa4on(P√ρ)•  StellarExcita4on(He+Instability:BlueEdge)•  StellarDe-Excita4on(Convec4on:RedEdge)•  StellarEvolu4on(Bolometric)•  StellarAtmospheres(Shocks,Convec4on,LineBlankemng)•  StellarComposi4on(Interior&Atmospheric)•  StarForma4onHistory(Con4ngent)•  MassLoss(When,Why&HowMuch?)

•  Reddening(Foreground&Individual)•  Binaries(Calibrators&Targets)•  Crowding(Wavelength&DistanceDependent,The“AGBFloor”)

INTRINSICEXTRINSIC

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Mul4pleCrossingsof“TheStrip”

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Low[Fe/H] High[Fe/H]

LowMass LowMass

HigherMass

HigherMass

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Mul4pleCrossingsandConflicts

LogT

BlueEdge Red

Edge

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ThePLRela4on(No,20parameters.Really!)

•  BasicThermalPhysics&Geometry(Sta4c)•  StellarPulsa4on(P√ρ)•  StellarExcita4on(He+Instability:BlueEdge)•  StellarDe-Excita4on(Convec4on:RedEdge)•  StellarEvolu4on(Bolometric)•  StellarAtmospheres(Shocks,Convec4on,LineBlankemng)•  StellarComposi4on(Interior&Atmospheric)•  StarForma4onHistory(Con4ngent)•  MassLoss(When,Why&HowMuch?)

•  Reddening(Foreground&Individual)•  Binaries(Calibrators&Targets)•  Crowding(Wavelength&DistanceDependent,The“AGBFloor”)

INTRINSICEXTRINSIC

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“Followtheresiduals”

-JerryMguire

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Neversawthiscoming:CrowdingbyRGBandAGBstars

Un4l...Chavezetal.2012,AJ,144,133

(1)Theyfoundthatnearly50%ofCepheidsin(theverynearby,LocalGroupgalaxy)

M33hadclosecompanions,andthefrac4onaffectedatorbelowthe10%levelwas70%

(2)Themajorityofthecrowding/blendingcompanionstarswerefromtheRGB

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The“RGBFloor”and“AGBWall”Melbourneetal.2012,ApJ,748,47Melbourne&Boyer,2013,ApJ,764,30

•  IntheNIRupto40%ofthelightisprovidedbyRedHelium-BurningandThermal-PulsingAGBstars,peakingintheMIRat3-4μm(JWST).

•  RSGcontamina4onpeaksat2.2μm(Kband).•  TP-AGBstarshave(V-H)colors>7magmakingthevastmajorityofthempreviouslyundetected(andunan4cipated)atop4calwavelengths.

•  AGBstarsco-existalongthesamelinesofsightasCepheids,butfarout-numberthem.

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Dalcantonetal.2012,ApJS,198,6

AGBFloor

AGB

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Asgoodasitgets:TheCalibrators

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SavedbytheBell…Curve?

•  Justassumethatallofthese17+systema4candrandomeffectscanjustbemarginalizedoverandbesavedbytheCentralLimitTheorem:

(1)Largesamples(2)Cancelingsystema4cs

•  Oryouhavepriori4ze,anddealwiththemindividually.

Page 38: “This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an ...“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to

“Steps”totheHubbleConstant

1000%1parameterCo-Discovery100%3parametersControversy10%5parametersConcordance1%20parametersConsilience*Consilience–theprinciplethatevidencefromindependent,unrelatedsourcesusingdifferentmethodscanconvergeonstrongconclusions

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Predic4onsfortheDistanceScale

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Predic4onsfortheDistanceScale

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Predic4onsfortheDistanceScale

“Onlytechnicaldetailsaremissing”

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2005

Page 44: “This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an ...“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to

ThePLRela4on(Oneparameter.Really?)

•  BasicThermalPhysics&Geometry(Sta4c)•  StellarPulsa4on(P√ρ)•  StellarExcita4on(He+Instability:BlueEdge)•  StellarDe-Excita4on(Convec4on:RedEdge)•  StellarEvolu4on(Bolometric)•  StellarAtmospheres(Shocks,Convec4on,LineBlankemng)•  StellarComposi4on(Interior&Atmospheric)•  StarForma4onHistory(Con4ngent)•  MassLoss(When,Why&HowMuch?)

•  Reddening(Foreground&Individual)•  Binaries(Calibrators&Targets)•  Crowding(Wavelength&DistanceDependent,The“AGBFloor”)

INTRINSICEXTRINSIC

Page 45: “This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an ...“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to

ThePLRela4on(Oneparameter.Really?)

•  BasicThermalPhysics&Geometry(Sta4c)•  StellarPulsa4on(P√ρ)•  StellarExcita4on(He+Instability:BlueEdge)•  StellarDe-Excita4on(Convec4on:RedEdge)•  StellarEvolu4on(Bolometric)•  StellarAtmospheres(Shocks,Convec4on,LineBlankemng)•  StellarComposi4on(Interior&Atmospheric)•  StarForma4onHistory(Con4ngent)•  MassLoss(When,Why&HowMuch?)

•  Reddening(Foreground&Individual)•  Binaries(Calibrators&Targets)•  Crowding(Wavelength&DistanceDependent,The“AGBFloor”)

INTRINSICEXTRINSIC

Page 46: “This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an ...“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to

ThePLRela4on(No,20parameters.Really!)

•  BasicThermalPhysics&Geometry(Sta4c)•  StellarPulsa4on(P√ρ)•  StellarExcita4on(He+Instability:BlueEdge)•  StellarDe-Excita4on(Convec4on:RedEdge)•  StellarEvolu4on(Bolometric)•  StellarAtmospheres(Shocks,Convec4on,LineBlankemng)•  StellarComposi4on(Interior&Atmospheric)•  StarForma4onHistory(Con4ngent)•  MassLoss(When,Why&HowMuch?)

•  Reddening(Foreground&Individual)•  Binaries(Calibrators&Targets)•  Crowding(Wavelength&DistanceDependent,The“AGBFloor”)

INTRINSICEXTRINSIC

Page 47: “This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an ...“This is to show the world that I can paint like Ti4an “ “Only technical details are missing” Wolfgang Pauli to

ThePLRela4on(No,20parameters.Really!)

•  BasicThermalPhysics&Geometry(Sta4c)•  StellarPulsa4on(P√ρ)•  StellarExcita4on(He+Instability:BlueEdge)•  StellarDe-Excita4on(Convec4on:RedEdge)•  StellarEvolu4on(Bolometric)•  StellarAtmospheres(Shocks,Convec4on,LineBlankemng)•  StellarComposi4on(Interior&Atmospheric)•  StarForma4onHistory(Con4ngent)•  MassLoss(When,Why&HowMuch?)

•  Reddening(Foreground&Individual)•  Binaries(Calibrators&Targets)•  Crowding(Wavelength&DistanceDependent,The“AGBFloor”)

INTRINSICEXTRINSIC