“mobile communications, a key factor · 2018-01-11 · wimax 4g, 4g+ data comprehensive ip...

“Mobile Communications, a key factor for growth and productivity improvement across the economy”

OCTOBER 2017

• For more than 3 decades since introduction of mobile telecommunicationsinto our lives, technological evolutions are extremely rapid.

• These evolutions are represented in the 4 generations systems (1G 4G)

• Typical duration for the development of a technology in the wirelesstelecommunications industry (from launch of standardisation up to thepilot commercial operation) is a decade.

• Each new system is introduced while the previous ones come to maturity.

• Evolution in devices is also parallel; these are called to catch up with thecontinuous and rapid developments in networks. Cutting edge smartphones are compatible with 2G,3G,4G technologies and offer a series ofservices.

2Opinion on Architecture for Mobile Telephony

Wireless Access Networks

Mobile Telecommunications Evolution (1G 4G)

Technological evolutions are extremely rapid



Gene-

ration

Services Technologies/Innovation/Capabilities Networks

1G Voice Analog Transmission, FDMA Multiple Access AMPS, TACS

2G Voice Digital Communications, FDMA, TDMA, CDMA

Multiple Access

GSM, CDMA

2,5G Data Packet Switching, Speeds of up to 384 kbps. GPRS, EDGE

3G Voice,

Multimedi

a

CDMA Multiple Access, Increase in capacity and

Improvement in voice/video transmission quality

WCDMA-

UMTS,

CDMA2000

3,5G Data Packet Switching, speeds1-10 Mbps HSPA,

WiMAX

4G, 4G+ Data Comprehensive IP architecture, Multiple

OFDMA access. MIMO Technologies. Speeds of

tenths and up to hundreds Mbps. Voice services

over data network (VoIP)

LTE,

LTE-A

Mobile Telecommunications Evolution (1G 4G+)

• The 1st 4G standardisation (3GPP Rel.8) was finalised in 2008.

• Ever since, 6 upgrades in the standard (Rel. 9 to 14) have been realised, the key ones being :

• LTE-A (Rel.10), finalised in 2010.

• LTE-A Pro (Rel.13), finalised in March 2016.

• The first 4G commercial network operated in Stockholm in 2009.

• Currently, are in operation approximately

• 644 LTE commercial networks in more than 200 countries worldwide.

• 100 LTE-A commercial networks in more than 50 countries worldwide.



4G-LTE Radio Networks/ Standardisation & Commercial Development



OFDM/OFDMA techniques in down-link, SC-FDMA in up-link.

Adaptive differential /codification and scheduling of telecommunication traffic.

Inter-Cell Interference Coordination - ICIC.

Use of ΜΙΜΟ techniques (multiplexing, diversity, beamforming).

Multicasting & Broadcasting Support.

Carrier aggregation.

OFDMA MIMO

Interference

Receiver

Transmitter

User 1

power

Duration of OFDMA symbols

4G-LTE Radio Networks/ Key technologies

6Opinion on Architecture for Mobile Telephony Wireless Access

Networks

Technique Analysis

Duplex method FDD, TDD, half-duplex FDD

Channel codification Turbo Code

Maximum mobile speed 350 km/h

Channel Range (MHz) 1.4, 3, 5, 10, 15, 20

FormulationUL: QPSK, 16QAM, 64QAM(optional)

DL: QPSK, 16QAM, 64QAM

Multiple access methodUL: SC-FDMA (50Mbps @ 20MHz)

DL: OFDMΑ (>100Mbps+ @ 20MHz)

Multiple antennas techniquesUL: Up to 1 level of data per UE and MU-MIMO

DL: Up to 4 levels of data per UE and MU-MIMO

Maximum transmission rate

UL: 75Mbps (@ 20MHz)

DL: 150Mbps (UE Category 4, 2x2 MIMO, @ 20MHz)

DL: 300Mbps (UE category 5, 4x4 MIMO @ 20MHz)

Cell radius 5 - 100km (System performance reduces after 30km)

End- user latency < 10ms

4G-LTE Radio Networks/ Key technologies



× 1000

Generation Technology Max.

Download

Rate

Typical

Download

Rate

2G G GPRS 0.1 Mbps <0.1 Mbps

E EDGE 0.3 Mbps 0.1 Mbps

3G 3G 3G (Basic) 0.3 Mbps 0.1 Mbps

H HSPA 7.2 Mbps 1.5 Mbps

H+ HSPA+ 21 Mbps 4 Mbps

H+ DC-HSPA+ 42 Mbps 8 Mbps

4G 4G LTE 100 Mbps 15 Mbps

4G+ LTE-A 300 Mbps 45 Mbps

2G/3G/4G Data Networks Speeds

Better networks:

•4G networks cover half of the earth’s

population (4 bn people).

•$ 900 bn investments.

Greater connectivity:

•4,8 bn people own a mobile telephone.

•$1 trillion of annual contribution to

global GDP (4.2%), 36 million jobs,

$500 bn of public revenues.

Richer services:

•Internet (3.5 bn users – 1 million new

users each day), social networks, e-gov,

health services, etc.

Mobile Communications Worldwide

Number of social network users

2 bn 2.5 bn2015 2016

29%Increase

1.5 bn people

have carried out purchases

via mobile phone

1.3 bn people

have used governmental services via

mobile phone

Average mobile broadband speed

13.5 Mbps 16.6 Mbps2015 2016

Source: 2017 Mobile Industry Impact Report, GSMA

The EU vision is that in ten years’ time Telecoms and IT shall beunified in a common infrastructure with extremely high capacity.

Ensuring flexibility and expandability requires “virtualised”network operations, carried out by generic purpose, programmedand high performance hardware, providing the resources fortransmission, routing, storing and processing data.

5G networks shall integrate telecommunications, IT and storingresources in one programmable unified infrastructure, allowingthe optimum use of allocated resources.



Next Generation (5G)

Software and Service centric transformation

TelecomsMultiple stakeholders

Bit pipe Enabling platform

Phones Things

Procedures Services

Protocols APIs

Dedicated Hardware Orchestrated Resources

Network Function Virtualized Software Instances

Network Slice




Next generation (5G) has already taken its first steps

It is foreseen that 100 times higher than the current cutting-edge systems shall be provided.

Already, since March 2017, 3GPP published the first studies forRelease 14, which constitutes the first version systematicallyreferring to 5G.

The evolution of 5G standardisation is depicted below

The1st wide-range pilot operation is scheduled for 2020 (TokyoOlympic Games).



Rel. 14 Rel. 15 Rel. 16

Ιούνιος 2017

Σεπτέμβριος 2018

Μάρτιος 2020


June September March

Evolution towards 5th generation (5G) (2020-2030): Scenarios & Requirements



Source: HUAWEI Technologies

Evolution towards 5th generation (5G) (2020-2030): Scenarios & Requirements



Mean time of transmission 300-

500Mbps & max >10Gbps.

Response time (latency) <

1ms.

100% coverage.

1000 times reduction of energy

consumption.

High Reliability (99,999%).

30× device density.

10-100× more connected

devices.

Higher security levels in

communication.

Source: NGMN Alliance,5G White Paper

Possible Operation Scenarios Requirements

• Demand for mobile data traffic is almost doubling each year

• In ten-years’ time, 10,000 times higher telecommunications volumes (bits/sec/Hz/km2)shall be required

Evolution towards 5th generation (5G) (2020-2030): The “10.000×” Challenge



50xBSs/km2

Network Density

Βελτιωμένη επίδοση με χρήση Massive

MIMO, CoMP, καταπίεση

παρεμβολών

Αυξημένη επαναχρησιμοποίηση φάσματος με μεγαλύτερη

πυκνότητα BSs και HetNets (macro, micro, pico, femto)

10.000xbps/Hz/km2

Capacity

Περισσότερο φάσμα σε ζώνες < 6 GHz και

σε mmWaves (30-100 GHz)

10xbps/HzSpectral

Efficiency

20xHz

Bandwidth

Improved efficiency with the use of massive MIMO, CoMP, compression of interferences

More spectrum in zones <6GHz and in mmWaves

Increased refarming with greater BSs and HetNets density (macro, micro, pico, femto)

Evolution towards 5th generation (5G) (2020-2030): Technological Perspectives



Spectrum in 5G networks

Massive MIMO Technology

(Source: “Full-Dimension MIMO:

Status and Challenges in Design

and Implementation”)

700 ΜHz for 5G

Existing for 4G initial use and later on for 5G

New spectrum 5G (mmWaves)New spectrum 3.5

GHz for 5G

84% €143 bn€540 bn

124% Penetration (457

million subscribers with

752 million connections)

84% of the population owns a mobile telephone

Important contribution to GDP

(3.4% in 2016 ➤ 3.9% in

2020)(CAGR 0.4%)

Mobile data CAGR 42%

143 bn euros turnover

2,6 million

jobs

Important contribution toemployment

€100bn

Important contribution to

public revenues

MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS IN EUROPE

Europe is the most highly penetrated mobile region in the world, as 4G shifts

continues.

Source: The Mobile Economy: Europe 2017, GSMA

MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS IN EUROPE

5G connections in Europe will reach a third of total connections by 2025

(bn €)

Source : The Mobile Economy: Europe 2017, GSMA

161 164 167 171 174

94 95 97 99 101

286

310

338368

399

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Άμεση συμβολή Έμμεση συμβολή

Συμβολή στην παραγωγικότητα Ποσοστό επί του ΑΕΠ

3,4

%

3,5%

3,6%

3,8%

3,9

%

Growing contribution to european economy

5G IN EUROPE

Industrial digitization and automation drive GDP growth to 5%

Source : The Mobile Economy: Europe 2017, GSMA

0 2 20 61 115 167 2140102030405060708090100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250260270280290300

0

50

100

150

200

250

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Συνδέσεις Υιοθέτηση Κάλυψη πληθυσμού

3,4%

3,6%

3,8%

73%

31%30%

60%

40%

70%

50%

20%

10%

rate

%

no

.o

f co

nn

ections

(in m

illio

ns)

Mobile telephony operators’ revenues constantly keep diminishing

(a 43% drop between 2010 – 2016, the largest in Europe), however…

GREECE - INDUSTRY’S FINANCIAL DATA

74%

66%

39%34%

18%14% 12%

0%

0%

-8%-10%

-17% -18%-21%

-26%-28% -29%

-31%-36% -36% -37%

-43%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Revenues from services amounted to 1.83 bn, reduced by 1.3% in 2016,

indicating stabilization or even recovery trends for 2017.

Cumulative loss of revenues from services since the start of the economic

crisis (2008) amounts to 57%.

…for 2017, international analysts* foresee an increase of revenues from services for

Greece by 1.4%, with a further improvement at 1.9% for 2018

*Merrill Lynch

Revenues from services

Source : Providers’ data p rocess ed

2.502

2.0721.935

1.860 1.835

-9,9%

-17,2%

-6,6%

-3,9%

-1,3%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

σε € Μεταβολή από προηγούμενο έτος

GREECE - INDUSTRY’S FINANCIAL DATA

In 2016, data increased spectacularly (58.3%), while messages

(SMS & MMS) were reduced by 30.8%, since subscribers tend to

use IP applications to communicate. Talk time (minutes), after three

years of increase, were reduced by 5.5%, returning to the usage level of 2012.

VOLUME AND REVENUES PER SERVICE

Service volumes

Source : Providers’ data p rocess ed

40,3 41,142,8 43,0

40,7

8,24 6,82

5,42 4,72 3,26

11,0

15,1

19,2

32,7

51,8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Λεπτά ομιλίας σε δισ. Μηνύματα σε δισ. Δεδομένα σε PB

Despite a high increase in usage for

2016, compared to other OECD countries,

data usage is very low in Greece (0.4

Gb per capita per month compared to 2.88

Gb in OECD and 3.1 Gb in european

countries).

It is worth mentioning the very high data usage

in scandinavian and baltic countries, since a

growing number of european providers are

adopting the unlimited data usage model, which

was initially implemented in Finland.

GB κατά κεφαλή ανά μήνα (2016)

Πηγή : http://dfmoni tor .eu/networkeconomics/

16,1

8,9

6,3

5,5

5,3

5,1

4,5

4,3

3,7

3,6

3,2

2,9

2,9

2,6

2,4

2,3

2

1,8

1,5

1,3

1,2

1,2

1,1

1

0,9

0,9

0,9

0,9

0,8

0,8

0,7

0,6

0,4

0,4

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Φινλανδία

Λετονία

Αυστρία

Δανία

Σουηδία

Εσθονία

Κορέα

Ισλανδία

Ιαπωνία

ΗΠΑ

Ιρλανδία

Ελβετία

Λουξεμβούργο

Νορβηγία

Πολωνία

Αυστραλία

Λιθουανία

Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο

Ιταλία

Γαλλία

Καναδάς

Τουρκία

Ισπανία

Πορτογαλία

Βέλγιο

Γερμανία

Ολλανδία

Ρουμανία

Ν. Ζηλανδία

Σλοβενία

Τσεχία

Ουγγαρία

Ελλάδα

Μεξικό

DATA USAGE IS VERY LOW IN

GREECE

Cutting down on borrowing costsThe industry has minimized its borrowing costs from the banking system.

Source: Providers’ data processed

1.943

1.550

1.2491.190

1.027 1.011945 898

-0,4%

-20,2% -19,5%

-4,7%

-13,7%

-1,5%

-6,5% -5,0%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Operating costs except for amortisation & interconnection and termination expenses

σε € Μεταβολή από προηγούμενο έτος

1,491,41

0,77

0,640,57 0,53

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *

Foreign to own

Cutting down on operating costsProviders have limited their operating costs by 54%

from 2009 to 2016.

A FINANCIALLY HEALTHY INDUSTRY

Providers have adapted to the conditions of greek economy’s recession and financial

system’s lack of liquidity, limiting both their expenses and borrowing

investments

Source: Providers’ data processed

290,7

254,6

308,8

346,7 351,0

-17,5%

-12,4%

21,3%

12,3%

1,2%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Επενδύσεις σε εκ.€ Μεταβολή από προηγούμενο έτος

THE INDUSTRY REMAINS ONE OF THE LARGEST AND MORE STABLE

INVESTORS

The industry’s total investments exceeded 351 million euros in 2016, since 4G

networks geographic and population extension is ongoing.

Despite the difficulties faced by the industry, its annual investments over the last

three years have increased by approximately 100 million euros.

Since the onset of the economic crisis (2008), the industry

has invested 3.17 bn euros

Roll out of new generation networks is expected to

create the necessary broadband dynamics that

shall support new 5G services

2017

2020

€2.5bn

The results of investments in new

generation networks will be the following:

҉Ultra-fast mobile internet speeds

҉Possibility of supporting innovative video streaming

services

҉Extension of geographic coverage

FUTURE INVESTMENTS

Telecommunications companies have announced 2.5 bn € investments in

fixed and mobile networks for the 2017-2020 period.

2017 ranking based on Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI)

Πηγή : Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) 2017

GREECE COMPARED TO THE ΕU

Greece is far behind the european average (holding the 26th place)

GREECE COMPARED TO THE ΕU

The country fails to converge with the european average, lagging steadily

behind them with a 4-5 year gap as far as digital modernization is

concerned

DESI – Evolution over time

Πηγή : Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) 2017

Public revenues from special fee in mobile telephony (in million €)

Source : Bank of Greece

65,5 76,6 86,5 95,9 107,2

229,6241,7

273,7

375,3

312,1286,0

250,5224,3

210,1187,7

82,0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan. 2007: Increase of special fee

Aug. 2009: Increase of special fee

• The special mobile telephony fee places a burden of 12%-20% on all bills, which, along with VAT,

increases indirect taxation to 39%-49%. Public State revenues from this special fee amounted in

187.7 million euros for 2016.

• In 2016, the industry contributed 37.7 million euros to HTPC, which exceed by far the HTPC’s operating

costs (10.5 million euros), thus further contributing to public revenues. The HTPC has paid 582 million

euros* to the greek public State in the 2000-2016 period, without including revenues from spectrum

frequencies’ auctions.

* “Kathimerini“

newspaper, 26/9/2017

issue, p.21

THE PUBLIC REVENUES ARE DECLINING

Due to over taxation

The industry is burdened with additional charges ~225 million euros

Financial Solution This is example for a subtitle

GROWTH SCENARIOS – CONCLUSIONS

Mobile broadband

•Baseline scenario: penetration reaches

84% in 2021, which is the current european

average

•Convergence scenario: penetration

reaches 100%

Mobile data

•Baseline scenario: data penetration increases by

42% annually, reaching 2.3 GB per inhabitant in

2021, without converging with european average

•Convergence scenario: Greece converges with the

average of Italy, Spain and Portugal in 2021 (at 6.8

GB per inhabitant per month)

84%

50%

100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Evolution of mobile broadband penetration per scenario

Σενάριο βάσης Σενάριο σύγκλισης

2,3

0,4

6,8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

GB

/mo

nth

/cap

ita

Evolution GB / per capita by scenario



GROWTH SCENARIOS – CONCLUSIONS

0.51%0.75%

0.74%

1.30%1.25%

.2,05%


0,0%

0,5%

1,0%

1,5%

2,0%

2,5%

Additional contribution to GDP per scenario in 2021

Επίδραση από αυξημένη χρήση δεδομένων που δεν ενσωματώνεται στο mobile broadband

Επίδραση από επέκταση διείσδυσης mobile broadband

992.9

1,620.2


0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

Impact on public revenues per scenario in million € in 2021

If the required reforms are implemented, so that Greece may digitally converge with

the rest of Europe (Convergence scenario), the mobile industry’s additional

contribution to GDP may reach 2.05% or 3.06 bn euros, while its additional

contribution to public revenues shall amount to 1.62 bn euros.


Simplification and implementation of the regulatory framework in order to speed up the

licensing process of existing and new base stations. The aim is to solve pending issues in

view of network upgrades, so that planned investments may be faster implemented

Allocation of spectrum areas, ready for use. The aim is to make use of EU best practices,

to review frequency fees and the licensing cost of base stations, so as to safeguard and

facilitate the providers’ long-term investment plan.

Removal of the special fee distortion. In Greece, consumers bear the cost of up to 48.8%

of their final bill when the maximum charge in the EU is 25%

A campaign to inform competent authorities and citizens about the importance of

infrastructure, services and digital technology in the development of the economy and

society, in the context of the implementation of the national digital strategy

01

02

03

04

Strengthening demand by introducing incentives for the adoption of innovative mobile

services by businesses, citizens, local authorities and public administration. 05

GROWTH SCENARIOS – CONCLUSIONS & PREREQUISITES

A prerequisite for the country’s successful convergence and utilization of benefits in the economy is

that the State undertake immediate initiatives, to upgrade Greece’s position on the european digital

map.

To this end, the following are required:

“Mobile first” in formulating a Digital Strategy

“mobile communications, a key factor · 2018-01-11 · wimax 4g, 4g+ data comprehensive ip...

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