annular variability and change john c. fyfe canadian centre for climate modelling and analysis
TRANSCRIPT
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Annular Variability and Change
John C. Fyfe
Canadian Centre for ClimateModelling and Analysis
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Acknowledging
• Boer and Flato
• Monahan, Ambaum, Stephenson, North, Lorenz and Teng
• Saenko, Zickfeld, Eby, Spence, Montenegro, Weaver, England and Stone
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Arctic Oscillation
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Arctic Oscillation
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Antarctic Oscillation
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• Model has realistic annular modes, with positive trends under forced change
• Model does not suggest stratospheric involvement
Conclusions
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Main Directions Since 1999
• Improving our basic understanding of the annular modes
• Assessing the impact of annular trends on the Southern Ocean
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Analog Device for Climate Change
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Climate Variability in the Past
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Climate Variability in the Future
X
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The Southern OceanAnt
arct
ica
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Antarctic Oscillation
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ZonalWindStress
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ACC
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Böning et al., Nature Geoscience, 2008
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Winds Strengthen
Isopycnals Steepen
Eddies Strengthen
Isopycnals Flatten
But eddies arenot resolved in GCMs
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ACC Transport with Resolution
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55ºS
Ant
arct
ica
CO2
uptake
DIC removal
CO2
outgassing
DIC
sup
ply
westerlies
Human CO2
emissions
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Air-to-Sea Flux of CO2
Out
gas
Upt
ake
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Le Quére et al., Science, 2008
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Adapted from Gille, Science, 2002
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Conclusions
• Models predict intensifying ACC
• Models predict more carbon uptake
• Warming is attributed to human activity
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Annular Variability and Change
John C. Fyfe
Canadian Centre for ClimateModelling and Analysis