Annual Vets Conference

Neenah, WI05-08-13

Real GDP Growth

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Pct

Cha

nge

At A

nnua

l Rat

esGross Domestic Product

Source: Actual--Bureau of Economic Analysis . Shaded area indicates period of recession

Actual

1Q 2013 rose by 2.5%, 1st estimate, most inputs were positive, with only govt spending (sequester) and import growth negatively influencing GDP

3% would be “ok”, 5% would be “good” growth. So really not too bad, all things considered.

Source: The Conference Board

LEI down 0.1% in March, CEI

also down (drop in income). Loss

in govt spending

means private sector may

struggle to hold up growth.

•Consumer Sentiment (UMich) down 2.2 pts in April. Consumer Confidence (The Conference Board) up 6.2 pts in April.

•Consumers feel more positive about housing, but less confident about job growth over half expect inflation to exceed wage gains. Sequester and payroll taxes likely drag on growth.

Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve

Some state and local indicators

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2012

2013

2012 Pre-Bench

Unemployment Rate

2012-2013 Unemployment Rates, Wisconsin

Rate: 7.6%

Rates below year-ago levels (not seasonally adjusted)

Labor force up slightly, employed up slightly, unemployed down slightly (0.5%)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

18-34 35-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Veteran

Nonveteran

2011 Vets/Nonvets Age

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

18-34 Vet, 18-34

35-54 Vet, 35-54

55-64 Vet, 55-64

Not in LF

Unemployed

Employed

2012 Vets Labor Force, Wisconsin

2,550,000

2,600,000

2,650,000

2,700,000

2,750,000

2,800,000

2,850,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2012

2013

2012 Pre-Bench

Total Nonfarm Jobs

2012-2013 Wisconsin Nonfarm Jobs

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Up over the year, 9,300. Mfg up 7,800,

leisure and hospitality up 10,000,

retail trade down -6,400

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Man

ufac

turi

ng

Nat

Res

/Min

ing/

Cons

tr

Fina

ncia

l

Info

rmati

on

Who

lesa

le

Educ

ation

al a

nd H

ealt

h

Leis

ure/

Hos

pita

lity

Tran

s/W

areh

ousi

ng

Reta

il

Prof

/Bus

Svc

s

National

Industry

Regional

Total

Source: CES, shift-share analysis – Scott Hodek, OEA

Shift Share Analysis, 2011-2012 Annual, WI-US

Source: WI DWD OEA Projections

326,250

422,900

6,630

46,060

51,740

147,980

16,890

23,660

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000

Less than high school

High school diploma orequivalent

Some college, no degree

Postsecondary non-degree award

Associate’s degree

Bachelor’s degree

Master’s degree

Doctoral or professionaldegree

Projected Job Openings 2010 - 2020 by Education Needed for Entry

Growth Openings

Replacement Openings

Total Openings

Share of the 25-and-over population with

no high school diploma or equiv.

Sources: Data from Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2006-2010Mapping by WI DWD Office of Economic Advisors

Share of the 25-and-over Population with a Bachelor’s or

more

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Less than highschool

graduate

High schoolgraduate(includes

equivalency)

Some collegeor associate's

degree

Bachelor'sdegree or

higher

Veteran

Nonveteran

76,910

78,630

35,660

42,020

1,350

135,350

112,170

48,470

31,860

128,310

20,180

32,290

64,720

19,690

50,950

4,080

11,710

9,280

14,310

25,250

50,260

40,710

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000

Transport. & material moving occs

Production occs

Installation, maint. & repair occs

Construction & extraction occs

Farming, fishing & forestry occs

Office & admin. support occs

Sales & related occs

Personal care & service occs

Bldg & grounds cleaning & maint. occs

Food prep. & serving related occs

Protective service occs

Healthcare support occs

Healthcare practitioners & tech. occs

Arts, design, ent., sports & media occs

Edu., training & library occs

Legal occs

Community & social services occs

Life, physical & social science occs

Architecture & engineering occs

Computer & mathematical occs

Business & financial operations occs

Management occs

Projected Job Openings 2010-2020 by Occupational Group

Projected growth openings

Projected replacement openings

Total projected openings

Source: WI DWD OEA Projections

The Aging Workforce

Median Age in 1990

Median Age in 1991

Median Age in 1992

Median Age in 1993

Median Age in 1994

Median Age in 1995

Median Age in 1996

Median Age in 1997

Median Age in 1998

Median Age in 1999

Median Age in 2000

Median Age in 2001

Median Age in 2002

Median Age in 2003

Median Age in 2004

Median Age in 2005

Median Age in 2006

Median Age in 2007

Median Age in 2008

Median Age in 2009

Median Age in 2010

Median Age in 2011

Source: Original data from WI Dept. of Health Services, Wisconsin Interactive Health Statistics (WISH) query , http://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/wish/ 4/31/2013 Mapping by WI Dept. of Administration, Division of Intergovernmental Relations, Demographic Services Center (608) 266-1755.

1.29

1.25

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Population Ages 15-64 per QCEW Job and Projected Job

Source: WI DOA population projections 2010-2040; BLS, QCEW; and DWD, OEA employment Projections, 2010-2020

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Wisconsin Labor Force Entrants and Exiters - 2010 to 2040Source: WI DOA, Demographic Services

18 Year-Olds 65 Year-Olds

Other Trends

• Sequestration – We’re the big news right now, and our own worst enemy

• The Euro zone• China’s economy

For copies of this PowerPoint or if you have other questions please contact:

Scott HodekRegional Economist – Serving West Central WisconsinOffice of Economic AdvisorsWisconsin Department of Workforce Development715.836.2997scott.hodek@dwd.wisconsin.gov

Website: dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea