angshik- smart cities vision

Internet of People : The Smart Cities Conundrum Globalisation : Economy : Technology Angshik Chaudhuri : 6th September 2016 : Bengaluru

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Tuesday, September 2, 14

Technology and The Relativity Index ! The 2% conundrum!


Technology Shifts

Computing Costs Decline,

Affordability, Comprehensive

access

Social Demographic

Shifts

Dependancy Ratio

Demographic Dividend

Hypergrowth

Economy

Urbanization

Scaling Services

Cost Control

Trends Reshaping the Global Landscape


Hypergrowth Shrinking Aging

Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division

Elderly (65+ yrs.)

2000 2050

World 6.8% 16.2%

USA 12.4% 21.6%

China 6.8% 23.3%

Sweden 17.2% 24.1%

Canada 12.6% 25.5%

Netherlands 13.6% 26.0%

Switzerland 15.4% 26.0%

Europe 14.8% 27.4%

Poland 12.2% 29.9%

Singapore 7.2% 32.6%

Germany 16.4% 32.5%

Italy 18.4% 33.3%

S. Korea 7.3% 34.2%

Japan 17.2% 37.8%

2050 Estimate

Millions % Decline from 2000

Europe 691.0 (5%)

S. Korea 44.0 (5%)

Portugal 10.0 (9%)

Slovakia 4.9 (9%)

Hungary 8.9 (13%)

Germany 70.5 (14%)

Poland 32.0 (17%)

Japan 101.6 (20%)

Russia 116.0 (21%)

Romania 17.2 (22%)

Ukraine 35.0 (28%)

Bulgaria 5.3 (33%)

2050 Estimate

Millions % Growth from 2000

World 9,149.9 50%

Brazil 222.8 28%

Indonesia 293.4 37%

India 1,613.8 55%

Egypt 129.5 85%

Philippines 146.1 88%

Saudi Arabia 43.6 110%

Pakistan 335.1 126%

Nigeria 289.0 132%

Iraq 63.9 160%

Ethiopia 173.8 165%

Congo 147.5 190%

Yemen 53.6 195%

Afghanistan 73.9 260%

Niger 58.2 428%

Biggest Social Shifts in the History of Mankind


Social Demographic

Shifts

Dependancy Ratio

Demographic Dividend

Hypergrowth INDIA 2014: 1.23 BILLION PEOPLE (17.9% of the world population)

1.56 BILLION PEOPLE INCREASE by ~ > 23%

INDIA BY 2050:

Translates to a young population and the dependancy ratio** falling dramatically to 35% by 2035 down from 70.6% from 1990 By 2050 India’s working population will increase by 27% over 2025 By 2040 Governmental support for the aged (64+) will cover about only 15% of the population creating an ability to release public funds

** - Dependency ratio - % of people dependent on an earning member

Source – WSJ Population Studies , Carnegie Mellon Population studies; The Economist; Brookings Institute

Demographic Impact on India


Global Economy – Near term turbulence !

1. GLOBAL RECESSION EVERY EIGHT YEARS

Global Economy weak and weakening further

2015 the worst year since 2008; 2016 marginally better

Recession follows expansion historically

Need to watch China; and other reasons to could trip the economy

2. CHINA NOW THE WEAKEST LINK

China economy is large , it now has 10% of the global economic output

US contribution to global growth was 33% down to 20% - China up from 8% to 33%

China on a debt binge ;

record debt in 5 years

40% increase in debt is always a danger sign

3. CHINA FLU CAN HIT INDIA

Global trade collapsed to 0% in 2015

India exports have collapsed a negative 5%

India cannot grow at 8-9% if exports are negative

India is now a protectionism bastion & it is troubling


4. CORPORATE INDIA IN DECLINE; COMMODITY PRICES NORMALISING

Corporate India was reeling in 2015 , GDP data and corp. performance don’t match

Oil prices will fluctuate

$50-60 is the sweet spot for oil / barrel

More fall in oil prices is not necessarily good news

5. DIS INFLATION COMES TO INDIA

India’s inflation problem is far from being solved

Inflation low primarily on account of low commodity prices

6. US FED WILL FIND IT HARD TO RAISE RATES

50-60 global currencies are now tied to the US$

US economy showing signs of slowing down

US Fed therefore is very conscious of the global economy

Hard to imagine Fed raising rates by much




7. RUPEE IS CHEAP; OTHERS ARE CHEAPER

INR has lost value against the dollar

Many emerging countries have lost much more – in fact its been a carnage

Good time for outbound travel !

8. FANG IN - BRIC OUT

FANG is the new acronym

Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google

Explosion of “unicorns” around the world

Companies no longer in the race to list quickly

Funding will get difficult going ahead

9. INDIA’S PUBLIC SECTOR PROBLEM

Credit growth has fallen dramatically

Indian banking system needs a fix

Public sector banks have roughly 70% of all assets compared to the global average of 30%

Bad loans and NPA’s a big issue


Twelve challenges

that India need will

to address

Cisco – CCS 2015, Mckinsey – India Technology Opportunity 2014

Large Scale , Firmly established

• AADHAR • FUEL SUBSIDY

2

Long Term :

Aspirational • ELECTIONS • EDUCATION • HEALTHCARE • ENERGY • JUSTICE • EXPENDITURE

6

Early Stages ;

Scaling Rapidly • E- KYC • GST • ELECTRONIC

TOLL • CASHLESS /

MICRO ATM

4


Twelve technologies

that will empower

India in the next

decade

Intelligent Connections

Digitising Life and Work

Digitize Access to Information

• Mobile Internet • Cloud • Digital Payments • Verifiable Digital Identity

Rethinking Energy

and Life

Digitize Energy and the Enterprise • Advanced Oil and

Gas exploration • Renewable Energy • Advanced Energy

storage • Automation of

Knowledge & Work

Smart Physical

Systems

Digitize Business Process • Internet of Things • Intelligent

Transportation • GIS • Next – Gen Genomics

Cisco – CCS 2015, Mckinsey – India Technology Opportunity 2014

• Economic Impact of approx.$1 trillion per year by 2025

• Translates to cash and non cash assets growing rapidly


Pace of Change is Accelerating

Cloud Apps Mobile Big Data & Analytics

IoT

By 2017, 90% of internet users will

access via a mobile device

2014, 74% of enterprises

have a hybrid cloud strategy

50B autonomous

connected devices by

2020

180B mobile application

downloads in 2015

From 2012 until 2020 the

amount of data will double

every 2 years


An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to common sense “intuitive linear” view


Ten Technology Trends that will change cities dramatically

8. Urban Services

9. You …. Only

Better 10. The Network

Platform

5. Virtualisation-

Fast IT 6. The World is

Flat and so is technology

7. Video : The Next Dimension

1. The Internet of Everything

2. “Zettaflood” is here 3. The Next Net 4. The Wisdom of the

Cloud


The Internet of Everything – Device Proliferation & Computing Everywhere

Device proliferation, security, and mobility

demand a next-generation network

1


Device Proliferation & Computing Everywhere

WORLD TODAY: ~18 BILLION devices CONNECTED to the NETWORK

50 BILLION devices CONNECTED to the INTERNET Translates to EACH PERSON owning 6 DEVICES on average

BY 2020:

INDIA TODAY: 980 MILLION devices

CONNECTED to the NETWORK

850 MILLION USERS

1.7 BILLION devices CONNECTED to

the INTERNET

Translates to EACH PERSON owning 1.2 DEVICES on average

BY 2020:

1


New Internet Inhabitants What do trees, cows, shoes, and your body have in common?

Proteus chip transmits data from your stomach

Asthma inhaler cross-referenced

with environmental / weather data

This tree has 3,000 followers…do you?

Cow transmits 200 MB per year

Connected shoe

Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2014; Sparked, 2013; Nike, 2010; David Van Sickle, 2011; Proteus, 2011

1


Poor Governance and Corruption is a key issue! Approx. 50% of public spending does not reach the people because of inefficiencies in governance & execution

64

52

51

47

36

0 20 40 60 80

Food*

MNREGA**

Education (Until…

Fuel

Health, Family…

Estimated Efficiency / Effectiveness of

Government Spending % of spending that typically reaches the people

50

50

Public Spending on Basic Services, 2013 100% = INR 570K Crore

Not Reaching Intended Beneficiaires INR 285K Crore

Spending Reaching People

Inefficiencies and Leakages

* For People below official Poverty line ** Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Emplyment Guarantee Act .

Source : National Sample Survey Office, Government Statistics, Cisco Internal Assessment

1


Meet Kamala & Bhagyalakshmi

FINANCIAL INCLUSION : CREDIT : IDENTITY : SUBSIDY : EQUALITY


The Zettaflood is HERE!

The zettaflood will place huge demands on the network, and demand optimized

architectures for security, quality of service, and efficiency

2


In 2016, > than 1“Zettabyte” of data will flow over the Internet

One zettabyte = stack of books from Earth to Pluto 20 times (72 billion miles)

Increase of 540,000 times from 2003; more than 90% from video

By 2015, almost 1 zettabyte of this data will traverse the network annually

If an 11 oz. cup of coffee equals 1 gigabyte, then 1 zettabyte would have the same volume of the Great Wall of China

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI), June 2014

2 = 10007bytes = 1021bytes = 1000000000000000000000 bytes = 1000 exabytes = 1 million petabytes =1 billion terabytes= 1trillion gigabytes


Democratic Franchise – The Undocumented Wonder

The right to voting for representatives is the primary right by which other rights are protected. To take away this right is to reduce a man to slavery – Thomas Paine

P . G Bhat’s Findings : 1 Million errors in Karnataka electoral rolls 4818 year old man votes 13000 voters had more than one wife 1829 had “female husbands” 96 people were above the age of 120 > 200,000 had voter ids in more than one constituency

CENTRALISED VOTER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM


The Internet will Evolve… and Rapidly 3


Mobile Internet accessed by ~800 Million ~114M Households with income > INR 17 Lakhs Approx US $ 30K

10 M tech enabled workers in IT, BFSI, Govt.

Intelligent Aspirational Middle Class

24 M people will add 4 or more years of education

India by 2025:Ambitious, Young & Internet Savvy

Source : Economic Times, Livemint- The Demographic Entitlement 2014, Cisco Internal Analysis

3


Toll Nightmare

TRUCK DELAYS ALONE COST INR. 2300 CRORES EACH YEAR


IPv6: Connectivity Without Meaningful Limits

52,000 trillion trillion addresses

per person

4.8 trillion addresses for every star in the

known universe

100 addresses for every atom on the

earth’s surface

IPv4 addresses: 4,294,967,296

IPv6 addresses: 340,282,366,920,938,463,463,374,607,431,768,211,456

Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2006–2013; Steve Leibson, Computer History Museum; CNN

3


Wisdom of the Cloud & Analytics : Advanced Pervasive & Invisible Analytics

4

Clouds and analytics will only be as good as the networks on which they run


Watson’s ability to answer questions makes it ideal for

doctors to improve patient care

IBM’s Watson supercomputer defeats humans in final Jeopardy

match

From Jeopardy winner… …to healthcare provider

Watson Will Improve Our Health What if Watson were a cloud service?

Source: IBM

4


Must we always GO to the doctor…?

© 2014 All rights reserved. Do not distribute. Hosted by

1.6 M people still die of pneumococcal diseases every year

India - The cost of healthcare exceeded the rate of general inflation by 2X, health

premiums have risen 3X faster than wages

18 M health privacy breaches in the last two years alone

Healthcare is a serious issue! Nearing a morbid precipice!

Vaccination and Immunisation Indices are down with Pentavalent injections costing

more

4

1 Govt. hospital in India has 1 bed for 1946 citizens ; WHO norm is 5 beds per 1000

people

India – 1.25 B people , 936,000 doctors Ratio : 1:1700 , WHO Norm: 1:1000

India has only 19 healthcare workers per 10,000 people WHO specifies 35 per 10,000

Approx. 68% of all specialists posts are vacant at Community Health Care Centers

India needs at atleast 190 more medical schools to reach min. coverage levels for its

citizens India Today, Cisco Internal Analysis


Virtualisation : Faster Consumption , Fast IT 5 Networks of the future

will be orders of magnitude faster than

those of today

World record set by sending

more than 200 terabits of

information per second through

a single optical fiber

Researchers set new record for rate

of data transfer using

a single laser at 46 terabits per

second


5 Virtualised Platforms will provide relevance & security based on policy

Multiple Devices

Personalized Context

My Schedule

My Communities

My Availability

My Location

My Preferences

Presence of My colleagues

Security Access Identity Presence

Who are you?

Where are you?

What are your credentials?

What is your role in the organization?

What assets are you allowed to access?


5 P

rod

uct

ivit

y /

Co

mp

etit

ive

Ad

van

tage

Workgroup Cross-Functional

Break Down Silos …In the Collaboration Process

Inter-Company


7 Network-powered Collaboration will extend way beyond the Firewall

Network-powered Collaboration

Desktop-centric Collaboration

The Workspace

Network Services

User Experiences

Power of the Team

Inside & Outside the Firewall

Open & Interoperable

Transforming the Business

The Intelligent Network

The Desktop

Server Applications

Tools

Power of Me

Inside the Firewall

Proprietary

Upgrading the Desktop

The Operating System

5


The World Is Flat…

So Is Your Technology The network will provide unprecedented transparency as well as a multiplying effect to catalyze change

6

We will download things as easily as we download music today


From Near Time to Real Time Everyone becomes a reporter

Broadband wireless

Anywhere, anytime

production

Internet TV

= + +

In 10 years, anyone will broadcast from anywhere to anybody on any device

6


7 Optimizing the Network Platform for Video


7

Cisco TelePresence

Optimizing the Network Platform for Video

The Network Platform

Any Media Anywhere Any Device



Physical Security






Internet TV



Urban Services – A $3 Trillion Opportunity

8

Applications

City Services

Sensors

What is a City Marketplace?

Choose City


What are the top three internal barriers that hinder progress of Sustainable Smart Cities?

Lack of Funding 35.4% Lack of a Committed

Champion/Visionary Leader

Departmental Silos and Lack of Coordination 17.9%

Lack of Alignment on Priorities 35.4%

8


Did you prepare a business plan for upcoming or current Smart City Investment?

68% Respondents Answered “No.”

76.3% were not able to forecast results with ROI and metrics.

NO

8

Sensors in street lighting fixtures monitor traffic, parking and environmental readings, and conduct first-level analytics for creating energy reports and recommendations.

Cities can use engage analytics to identify the highest foot-traffic areas in the city

Citizens can use apps for interactions, to find businesses and activities, and to navigate the city efficiently

City agencies and businesses can send information on parking spots to customers along with weather updates

Applications

City Services

Sensors

Choose City

Urban Services – A $3 Trillion Opportunity 8


9 You …. Only Better


9 You …. Only Better June 2009: University of Southampton demonstrates brain-to- brain communication over Internet October 2010: Toyota showcases mind-controlled wheelchair with 95% accuracy March 2010: University of Maryland decodes brain signals / reconstructs into 3D hand movements April 2012: Intel software analyzes fMRI scans to determine what you’re thinking (90% accuracy) July 2014: University of Western Ontario develops technology to predict what a person is going to do before he or she does it

Mind-controlled wheelchair

Brain-controlled prosthesis


10 The Network Platform Touches and Connects Everything


The Network Platform – Touches & Connects Everything 10

Intelligence in the Network Enables: Security

+ Visibility

+ Collaboration

+ Relevance

+ Quality of Experience

The network now matters more than ever but not nearly as much as it will in the future; The journey has begun but is

the network ready ?


Integrated Operations

Center

Grid

Ambulances

Stadium Hospital

Optimization

Comms Network

Optimization

Home Energy

Management

Digital Signage

Traffic Flow Optimization

Factory Optimization

Logistics Optimization

Traffic Cameras Automated

Car System

A City, Country or Company With a Digital Overlay

Intelligent Medical Devices

Connected

Cloud and Services

Platform +

Smart

FACTORY

HIGHWAY

CITY

HOSPITAL

FACTORY SMART CITY

SMART

HOSPITAL SMART

Intelligent

Connected

HIGHWAY SMART

Smart Cities : The Narrative has Three Compasses

“Technology Access”

Hyper-connectivity

Application driven economy

Seamless connectivity

Internet of Everything

“Realism”

Governance

Healthcare

Poverty

Citizen Services

“Competitiveness”

Transparency

Empowerment

Public Services

Decentralisation

Innovation

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