andrew fogg, founder & cdo at import.io: "sex, drugs & data: uk gdp redux"
TRANSCRIPT
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Andrew Fogg
Sex, drugs and data: UK GDP Redux
Friday 27 June 2014presented by
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this talk is mainly about sex
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and data
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no drugs I am afraid
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let’s start with a question
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how much does prostitution contribute to the UK economy?
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£1bn?
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£2bn?
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£5.314bn
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0.4% GDP
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£5.314bnthat is a big number
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bigger than the entire economy of Moldova
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bigger than 28% of global economies
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but it would only buy 45% of WhatsApp
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restatement of accounts in line with EU accounting guidelines
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“illegal transactions to which all parties consent should be included in national accounts”
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this includes prostitution and sale of illegal drugs
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how did the ONS calculate that number for prostitution?
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very simple
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there are lots of assumptions and the number of prostitutes relies on one study
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tried to count all the prostitutes in London over 6 months in 2004
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phoned every brothel and escort agency they could find advertised
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estimated count of off-street prostitutes in London (plus estimate of on-street prostitutes from police)
7,000 (+115)
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scaled out to the UK using population statistics
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how reliable is that number? especially the scaling assumption?
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time to look at some web data
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many activities associated with prostitution are illegal in the UK
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but paying for sex is actually legal
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as a result prostitution sits in a grey area and is widely marketed on the web
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built an API to AdultWork directory using Import.io
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AdultWork is ranked 174 top site in UK by Alexa
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searched for all sex workers based in the UK and downloaded the data
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categorised each sex worker by location (London / not London)
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counted the number of London based prostitutes and estimated the UK total using scale assumption
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then counted the number of UK based prostitutes on AdultWork
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it seems that the scaling assumption is reasonable
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so the ONS numbers are good?
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not quite
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what is wrong with this picture?
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there are no men
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“no information is included regarding men working in the sex industry”
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40% of the prostitutes on AdultWork are men (in London and across UK)
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recalculating GDP to take into account male prostitution gives a dramatic increase
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£8.856bnnew number
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0.6% GDP
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the new total is bigger than the entire economy of Iceland
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bigger than 37% of global economies
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but it would still only buy 75% of WhatsApp
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this is only a preliminary analysis
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but i just added £3.542bn to the UK economy
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plan to investigate further by examining the price per visit (data is also available on the web)
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benefit of using web data for this kind of analysis is that it is up to date and can be tracked