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Global Trading ForumAndrea Unger, Daryl Guppy, Howie Lee

Level 7, NTUC Centre

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Profitable Trading

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• Andrea Unger

• Born in 1966

• Degree in Mechanical engineering in 1990

• From 1992 to 2001 employed in technical-commercial

positions in multinational companies

• From 2001 Full time trader

About me

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Some success storiesEuropean TopTraderCupEuropean TopTraderCupEuropean TopTraderCupEuropean TopTraderCup1111°°°° place 61%place 61%place 61%place 61%

World Cup Championship of Futures & Forex Trading®World Cup Championship of Futures & Forex Trading®World Cup Championship of Futures & Forex Trading®World Cup Championship of Futures & Forex Trading®1111°°°° place 672%, 115%, 240%, 82%place 672%, 115%, 240%, 82%place 672%, 115%, 240%, 82%place 672%, 115%, 240%, 82%FIRST Italian book on FIRST Italian book on FIRST Italian book on FIRST Italian book on money management money management money management money management

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Markets are changing

Donchian Channel breakout using highest high and lowest low of 5 daily bars.30 USD RT commissions included.Dates from 1950 to July 2014

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Markets are changing

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Markets are changing

Donchian Channel breakout using highest high and lowest low of 5 daily bars.30 USD RT commissions included.Dates from 1950 to Dec 2000

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Markets are changing

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Markets are changing

Donchian Channel breakout using highest high and lowest low of 5 daily bars.30 USD RT commissions included.Dates from 2001 to July 2014

More trades

Worse average trade

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Markets are changing

Equity line is

much worse

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Markets are changing

Working on breakout of 20 bars the scenario does not change, during last years there are more trades and worse average trade values

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Markets are changing

Equity line is

much worse

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Markets are changing

Working on breakout of 50 bars the scenario does not change, during last years there are more trades and worse average trade values

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Markets are changing

Equity line is

much worse

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EminiSP500 approach

The «failure» of classical trendfollowing is mostly due to higher efficiency of markets.

MiniSP500 is one of the most efficient markets.

The 5 periods time showed up to be the choppiest for breakout strategies so let’s do the opposite!

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EminiSP500 approach

We refer to day session to build our setup

We trade only long as Indexes have a long BIAS

Our setup is a close 10% of last range below the lowest low of previous 5 daily session’s lows

We don’t enter on Fridays

We don’t enter in case of recent loss

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EminiSP500 approach

Once the setup is verified we enter on a limit order at most recent low level.

Worst case exit is 600 USD Stop Loss

Time exit market on close after 12 bars in trade

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EminiSP500 approach

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EminiSP500 approach

Results are not bad for a very simple approach like this

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EminiSP500 approach

The equity line shows a nice behavior

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EminiSP500 approach – Position Sizing at work!

Fixed Ratio with delta 10.000 USD lets profits boost

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Another way to face challenging conditions

We focus on «day session» only as there we find higher volumes

We study intraday entries on a 15 minutes charts

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Another way to face challenging conditions

We have a time window to take the trades

We have patterns filtering the decision to take a directional trade

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Another way to face challenging conditions

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Another way to face challenging conditions

The results with a single contract approach are positive, 15 USD RT commissions have been included

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Another way to face challenging conditions

Equity line shows a good behavior

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Another way to face challenging conditions

Yearly report shows constant gains and trade analyses is also positive

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Another way to face challenging conditions

Now position sizing is applied with a 2% risk model on 25.000 USD starting capital

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Another way to face challenging conditions

Equity line still shows a good behavior and drawdown figures are within «normal» limits

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Another way to face challenging conditions

Now same starting capital of 25.000 USD but risk of 5% pro trade, results jump to really high levels

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Another way to face challenging conditions

Equity line here starts showing some strong falls and this approach might be too aggressive for most risk profiles

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Let’s have a look at some currencies

British Pound future Donchian channel breakout test on 5 Bars

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Let’s have a look at some currencies

British Pound future Donchian channel breakout test on 20 Bars

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Let’s have a look at some currencies

British Pound future Donchian channel breakout test on 50 BarsIn all cases we see a bad behavior in last years!

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Let’s have a look at some currencies

Considering the increasing number of «false breakouts» we build a strategy where the entries are on fake breakouts so we enter long once we first had a break of last day’s low and then a recovery to the upside and we enter short when there was first a breakout of last day’s high and then a return below that level.

To do so we work on 60 minutes bars and we add the only condition that yesterday the total range was smaller than the day before

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Let’s have a look at some currencies

The condition related to BarOfDay is to avoid entries accross different days

All we use in conjunction with these rules is a 100 ticks stop loss

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Let’s have a look at some currencies

These are the results after 2008 on British Pound future with 30 USD RT commissions

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Let’s have a look at some currencies

The equity line also shows a very nice behavior

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Let’s have a look at some currencies

Let’s now apply this strategy on a basket of currency futures with no change in the rules.We trade:

EuroFX futureBritish Pound futureJapanese Yen futureAustralian $ futureNew Zealand $ future

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Let’s have a look at some currencies

Some trades as an example

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Let’s have a look at some currencies

Excellent results considering the test saw no tweaks on inputs depending on different Currencies

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Let’s have a look at some currencies

There are some harder periods but overall the equity keeps on rising

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Position Sizing at work!

Fixed Ratio with delta 10.000 USD lets profits boost

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andrea.unger@oneyeartarget.com